Betting discussion

[Goodspeed]

Somppu was vastly overrated by a lot of betters so it was more worth it to bet on Lukas than it otherwise would've been. Making big profits in betting is all about knowing the players better than everyone else.

[Nymphomaniac]

well bettting everything on somppu 2-0 was really stupid (and many made the mistake including me) because of the new civ rules in this tourney (i.e. winner has to lock civ first in next match). But sommpu should have taken it 2-1 if he had not picked bad 1st match up. I mean India aginst japan on kamchatka??

[iNcog]

If somppu was afraid of counter-civ'ing, shouldn't he have chosen a civ which can't be counter picked?

[momuuu]

Somppu was vastly overrated by a lot of betters so it was more worth it to bet on Lukas than it otherwise would've been. Making big profits in betting is all about knowing the players better than everyone else.

It's about finding the extremely favorable match ups yes. I got the information that somppu was not in shape at all, while a study of lukas's ELO and comet's opinion on lukas did give me some intell that the guy might be better than he showed to be against bram, even though that was pretty impressive (the first game at least, impossible mu on that map).

[deleted_user0]

ye jerom ur an awesome gambler!

[Mimsy for President]

Stop acting like a financial forecaster lel
ik maak een grapje

[EAGLEMUT]

to be confident enough to bet on a 1.06 payout on somppu is a very bad appraisal. hardly a worthwhile endeavour.

anyway after this round i'll have ~5k points. in the last betting event i was gifted with points on multiple occasions after i had lost everything. this event if there's anyone in need of points i'd like to be that generous donor. quote me

Lowly beggar here. Looks like going all in for 2-0 tibia was not my best decision.

[Cocaine]

No offense to this betting game, which is well organized but I'm very upset at the fact that my entire betting pool was locked in for the anxiety optimus match.. I could not bet on anyone else because of this. Lukas match? Hell yeah i would bet a mere 100 on his winning 2-1 and 2-0 its what my strategy is, and I would of won. This is theoretical since my betting chips are STILL locked in the match thats NOT gona happen.. So in turn I'm left with my 3403 chips because they will award optumus the admin win, and I therefor will get my points back and LOSE this whole round of 64 betting opportunity because I couldn't bet on anything else.

This is not fair at all. Seriously. I went from top 2 to like bottom 2 because I could not place any bets during this round. It is not fair at all.

[Nymphomaniac]

^ ^ maybe don't put ur entire fortune on a single match

[Cocaine]

Nympho that doesnt help the issue here. If I want to I should be able to, and if the match is not played the betting should open right away not wait frozen. Don't you agree? I'm almost sure I was the only one affected totally by this freeze since YES i bet all my chips on this match but htats how I bet, all in or nothing. I should not be penalized because the betting host did not account for a wild card strategy like mine.

[Goodspeed]

The problem is, it has to stay locked because they have already started the series. If I open the bets, everyone will just edit them because Optimus is up 1-0.

They said they would finish it so I can't reset all of your bets either. I did that earlier but then GUA replied that he was still planning on playing (see PMs)
It's unfortunate that they started the series and are continuing so much later, because that means your points have to stay locked for that entire time. And I can't allow you to cancel your bets for that match either, again because they already started the series.

[MiR]

ah i was wondering what happend because the betting sheet is empty but i am missing like 1000+ points. i hope they finish soon...

[zoom]

The problem is, it has to stay locked because they have already started the series. If I open the bets, everyone will just edit them because Optimus is up 1-0.

They said they would finish it so I can't reset all of your bets either. I did that earlier but then GUA replied that he was still planning on playing (see PMs)
It's unfortunate that they started the series and are continuing so much later, because that means your points have to stay locked for that entire time. And I can't allow you to cancel your bets for that match either, again because they already started the series.

The alternative would be to void all bets...

[optimusprime]

gua gone off after 1st game and said we play tomorrow then he said no i wont comeback, thats all

[Goodspeed]

In the scheduling thread it looks like he's willing to play. Please try to work with him to get the games played ASAP, people are missing points

[Cocaine]

He's telling all of us! No offense to him, but Let's just shut down this match and go on with our lives.

[Goodspeed]

That's funny coming from the guy who has 3403 points bet on the guy who is 1-0 behind

[_H2O]

I think it would be cool if the odds were set by a bookie. As it stands now you are advantaged to place ur bets last.

[Goodspeed]

Not really

[zoom]

Not really

#shutdownálamankl

[Goodspeed]

Lol I typed not really and wanted to explain but something came up and I just pressed post

kek

Anyway you are indeed slightly advantaged if you place your bets last in that you have more reliable odds to base your bets on, but in practice they often don't change much in the last day or 2 up to a match.
Ultimately you're battling the community's consensus and using its misconceptions. If the odds were set by a bookie beforehand, you would in a way be playing against the bookie more than against the other betters.
It's just more fun this way, plus there is no bookie I know of who could set odds as reliably sharp (as in, accurately estimating the players' strength) as 100 people combined could.

We did fail with the Lukas vs Somp match though. 19042 out of 20127 points were bet on Somppu lol. I don't think there will ever be winning odds as good as those again.

[deleted_user0]

dw, mitoe vs TBHB will break all records. no one knows how bad mitoe really is except mitoe, and he repeats it quite often. but just how bad is he?

[Cocaine]

Well I'm out of the betting tourney, I will go back to actual aoe and refine my 1v1 skills so I can come back for the spring championships.

[momuuu]

I think some of the large betters sometimes go all in on the favorite shortly before the deadline. I know mitoe told me he bet on cohenski when the odds (accurately) represented an even match. Somehow though, a lot of people just brainlessly went all in on cohenski skyrocketing the payouts for me.

Its interesting, it almost seems as if betting on the favorite is never even worth it because so many people try to predict who wins instead of trying to aim for profit.

[deleted_user0]

Another market analysis please, Jerom, almighty rekker of Cohen's ki