En marche, citoyens!

Place open for new posts — threads with fresh content will be moved to either Real-life Discussion or ESOC Talk sub-forums, where you can create new topics.

Who will become President of France?

Emmanuel Macron
11
46%
Marine Le Pen
9
38%
Other
4
17%
 
Total votes: 24

User avatar
Netherland Antilles Laurence Drake
Jaeger
Posts: 2687
Joined: Dec 25, 2015

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Laurence Drake »

umeu wrote:But the distinction made by nationalism is really fictional. Tribalism atleast has the actual bond of family ties and shared experience. Nationalism isnt even really cultural anymore.

a shared history and language aren't fictional
Top quality poster.
No Flag deleted_user0
Ninja
Posts: 13004
Joined: Apr 28, 2020

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by deleted_user0 »

But nationalism isnt about language, and sharing a history is pretty fictional when its not a family history. Its only not fictional if you already bought into the fiction of nationalism
User avatar
Netherland Antilles Laurence Drake
Jaeger
Posts: 2687
Joined: Dec 25, 2015

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Laurence Drake »

umeu wrote:But nationalism isnt about language, and sharing a history is pretty fictional when its not a family history. Its only not fictional if you already bought into the fiction of nationalism

nobody buys into nationalism voluntarily. it's a social constraint that exercises itself on people all the time.
Top quality poster.
No Flag kami_ryu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 2196
Joined: Jan 2, 2017

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by kami_ryu »

-- deleted post --

Reason: on request (off-topic bulk delete)
No Flag deleted_user0
Ninja
Posts: 13004
Joined: Apr 28, 2020

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by deleted_user0 »

Laurence Drake wrote:
umeu wrote:But nationalism isnt about language, and sharing a history is pretty fictional when its not a family history. Its only not fictional if you already bought into the fiction of nationalism

nobody buys into nationalism voluntarily. it's a social constraint that exercises itself on people all the time.


Well, its a pretty recent construct though, so its not like we cant do without
User avatar
France bwinner
Howdah
Donator 01
Posts: 1292
Joined: Mar 14, 2016
ESO: bwinner

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by bwinner »

I am so sad to see how mich franvh aoe player want to vote for Lepen :-(
If election were on eso, Lepen would win gg no re...

I would like to give my vue on things that foreign people may fail to see :
After the "Pénélope Gate" and the very hard unpopularity of the current franch president, a huge amount of people feel a distrust in the elites (probably the same in USA, but it is really stronger due to Fillon affaire in France). Strangly, people like @Rikikipu seems to think that voting for Lepen will fight that even if she is a model of professionnal politician (his father was the leader of his party for decades).

Another important fact is that the father of Lepen was in 2nd round once vs Chirac. Chirac reckted him 80% to 20% because people were affraid of the FN. But now, people aren't anymore affraid of FN so that won't be the same for sure. I am really scared that Lepen won it :-(
Image
User avatar
Tuvalu gibson
Ninja
ECL Reigning Champs
Posts: 13597
Joined: May 4, 2015
Location: USA

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by gibson »

I dont see how le pen could win. A center candidate is going to beat a extreme right candidate every time.
User avatar
France Rikikipu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 1679
Joined: Feb 27, 2015
ESO: p-of
Location: In your base

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Rikikipu »

gibson wrote:Macron will win in a blowout. Seems like an excellent candidate from what little iv seen. Right leaning on government regulation of business and left leaning on basically everything else. Le pen on the other hand would be awful. I find nationalism in general to be useless and borderline neanderthalic. It createds an "us vs them" mentality which is generally bad.

I got a LOT of mates that are not going to vote for the second round because Macron and Le Pen are for them the worst by far candidates. They are fully antagonist. Most of argument against Le Pen is not that she is nationalist, because kinda 45% of the vote in the first round were eurosceptic (22% le pen, 19% mélenchon ane 5% dupont aignan). It's more because of her father who were border-line that people are fear of. Actually, this election is not really about left vs right (or democrats vs republicans for us persons), it's about changing deeply Europe and bringing back country autonomy or going further in the current situation.
User avatar
Tuvalu gibson
Ninja
ECL Reigning Champs
Posts: 13597
Joined: May 4, 2015
Location: USA

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by gibson »

Didn't melechom endorse macron though?
User avatar
France Rikikipu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 1679
Joined: Feb 27, 2015
ESO: p-of
Location: In your base

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Rikikipu »

gibson wrote:Didn't melechom endorse macron though?

No, he refused. And his program with Le Pen share a lot in common because thet are both in the eurosceptic side
No Flag kami_ryu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 2196
Joined: Jan 2, 2017

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by kami_ryu »

-- deleted post --

Reason: on request (off-topic bulk delete)
User avatar
France Rikikipu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 1679
Joined: Feb 27, 2015
ESO: p-of
Location: In your base

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Rikikipu »

kami_ryu wrote:1. fuck europe
2. fuck brown people
3. fuck turbans
4. fuck the €
5. fuck everyone except the french

Doesn't seem like a nice candidate to me. I like you personally riki, but I cannot fathom why anyone would buy into such a shitty program. She seems to spread distrust and hate more than anything else. I see European Union as a boon to European countries as well as a boon to the USA who is a great trading partner with EU. I don't see why anyone would want out. Reform things which need reforming, yes. However the free circulation of goods and people in Europe is great.

Macron seems to be like another Hollande except he won't even get a majority to work with.

But you are saying things that are litterally not true.
1) She doesn't say "fuck the europe", she asks for an Europe of nations, which means an European Union project which got to respect countries decision. But as it is probably not be accepted by Brussels, she will make a referendum in order to ask if french people want to leave EU.
2) She never ever said this. Actually, the color of you skin is not relevant because France got a lot of migration and what count more is that if you are french or a foreigner.
3) No, her program only talk about coping with extremism only.
4) This topic is a bit the controversial point of her program. There are pros and there are cons, and both are not stupid. This an example that shows that being anti-euro is not that stupid :
Image
Translation : Industrial production of Germany, Italy, Spain and France during the time

5) No, that's the contrary. Right now it's fuck everyone except Western countries. Fuck Africa, what is important are their natural resources there, for money money. Fuck russia, china etc. What she wants, is to be more a non-aligned country which keep its freedom of decision and can be a mediator in the international scene between countries.
No Flag deleted_user
Ninja
Posts: 14364
Joined: Mar 26, 2015

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by deleted_user »

It's almost like a political agenda cannot be summarized in five bullet points. Although, maybe it can. I don't actually know.
No Flag kami_ryu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 2196
Joined: Jan 2, 2017

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by kami_ryu »

-- deleted post --

Reason: on request (off-topic bulk delete)
User avatar
France Rikikipu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 1679
Joined: Feb 27, 2015
ESO: p-of
Location: In your base

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Rikikipu »

kami_ryu wrote:Correlation and causality aren't necessarily the same. I'm just saying that in face of a graph.

I'll look more into it later.

I totally agree with you, even more a graph doesn't show the whole complexity of a topic. But at least, it shows that it's pertinent o raise the question about Euro
User avatar
Netherland Antilles Laurence Drake
Jaeger
Posts: 2687
Joined: Dec 25, 2015

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Laurence Drake »

abolishing the euro isn't going to be all sunshine and rainbows though
Top quality poster.
User avatar
No Flag fightinfrenchman
Ninja
Donator 04
Posts: 23505
Joined: Oct 17, 2015
Location: Pennsylvania

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by fightinfrenchman »

Macron better win to show the world that neoliberalism is OP
Dromedary Scone Mix is not Alone Mix
Image
User avatar
Netherland Antilles Laurence Drake
Jaeger
Posts: 2687
Joined: Dec 25, 2015

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Laurence Drake »

except Macron is a communist just like every other mainstream politician in france
Top quality poster.
User avatar
France Rikikipu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 1679
Joined: Feb 27, 2015
ESO: p-of
Location: In your base

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Rikikipu »

fightinfrenchman wrote:Macron better win to show the world that neoliberalism is OP

neoliberalism was already what we got with hollande
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Goodspeed »

Rikikipu wrote:This an example that shows that being anti-euro is not that stupid :
Image
Translation : Industrial production of Germany, Italy, Spain and France during the time
How does it show that? The global economy went to shit in 2008, this had nothing to do with the €.
User avatar
France Rikikipu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 1679
Joined: Feb 27, 2015
ESO: p-of
Location: In your base

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Rikikipu »

@Goodspeed well the point wasn't to show the crisis time in 2008, but when the € is created, Germany industrial production was the last in these 4 countries, and just after the € is created it becomes first. We see a big boom for Germany whereas as the same time, France and Spain starts decreasing their production, and Italia growth becomes slower.
User avatar
France bwinner
Howdah
Donator 01
Posts: 1292
Joined: Mar 14, 2016
ESO: bwinner

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by bwinner »

Rikikipu wrote:@Goodspeed well the point wasn't to show the crisis time in 2008, but when the € is created, Germany industrial production was the last in these 4 countries, and just after the € is created it becomes first. We see a big boom for Germany whereas as the same time, France and Spain starts decreasing their production, and Italia growth becomes slower.

So you wanted to show a graph where we can't conclude anything to show that euro is not obviously good on every pictures you can find, very good argument^^

Rikikipu wrote:
fightinfrenchman wrote:Macron better win to show the world that neoliberalism is OP

neoliberalism was already what we got with hollande

Yep and that's also what they've got in Germany, the 2 best economy on your graph, so that may not be so bad ?
Image
User avatar
France Rikikipu
Retired Contributor
Posts: 1679
Joined: Feb 27, 2015
ESO: p-of
Location: In your base

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Rikikipu »

bwinner1 wrote:
Rikikipu wrote:@Goodspeed well the point wasn't to show the crisis time in 2008, but when the € is created, Germany industrial production was the last in these 4 countries, and just after the € is created it becomes first. We see a big boom for Germany whereas as the same time, France and Spain starts decreasing their production, and Italia growth becomes slower.

So you wanted to show a graph where we can't conclude anything to show that euro is not obviously good on every pictures you can find, very good argument^^

Correct, yes it's a good argument who just answers to the tabou of leaving the euro. There are good pros and good cons, and I think this question has the right to be raised, because for a lot of people it's not the case right now.

bwinner1 wrote:Yep and that's also what they've got in Germany, the 2 best economy on your graph, so that may not be so bad ?

Well, the graff shows a correlation between Euro and production, not neoliberalism and production. Anyway, neoliberalism is good economically on a short term plan, I agree with this. Main concern of neoliberalism is the social side, which is terrible.
User avatar
Nauru Dolan
Ninja
Posts: 13064
Joined: Sep 17, 2015

Re: En marche, citoyens!

  • Quote

Post by Dolan »

@Rikikipu

There are many explanations for why you see those trends in the graph.

In 2001 after the WTC twin towers got Boeing'd, the world economy plunged into recession until 2002. The "dot com bubble" burst lasted from 1995 to 2000, which was followed by the telecom crash and the stock market downturn from 2002. It was just the pendulum swing going back from a decade of bull market (which inflated stock prices artificially) to a bear market.

That's not to say that the introduction of the euro in 1999 had nothing to do with France's decline in industrial production. It did have a lot to do with the euro, but it wasn't the only factor. After all, if the euro was so harmful for the economy, why were other countries like Germany not affected as much? It's a much more complicated picture and just throwing one graph on the page doesn't make the situation self-explanatory. There is a lot of background stuff that was going on back then. And you need to dig deep to be able to understand why that line looks that way.

After the euro got introduced, it started losing valuation against the dollar fast. When your currency becomes weaker relative to other currencies, the effect is a boost to your exports, because your buyers' purchasing power is artificially increased, they are able to buy more with the same amount of money. So for every car made in France, you would get more cash if the euro was weaker. But this effect didn't last much. After the September 11 attacks, the dollar started losing value too, because the USA suddenly had to invest more money in security and because they got involved in overseas wars. So the euro's competitive advantage was gone. The euro and the dollar reached 1:1 parity in November 2002, then the euro kept creeping up in value until it peaked at $1.35 in 2004.

This period of re-valuation coincides with the downturn in industrial production in many EU countries, which is visible on the graph you posted. Was this industrial decline really caused by the euro alone? Not really. It was caused by much bigger market forces, which started asserting themselves even before the 9/11 event, at the end of the Dot.com bubble burst. What happened was that France and a few other EU countries had trouble recovering from the general economic downturn during the early 2000s. That's why you see that line going down. Not because the euro nuked French industry, but because the French economy could not use currency manipulation anymore to create an artificial recovery, by devaluing its currency. That tool was no longer there. And the most competitive countries eventually won and had a better recovery. The German economy was also affected by both the introduction of the euro and the post-2001 crisis, but it managed to recover after a few years.

The French industry didn't recover as well, so the result was that French car manufacturers outsourced a big part of the production to countries like Turkey, Romania and Morocco. However, this didn't translate into a loss in buying power for the French. If you look at your graph, you might be tempted to think that this made French people lose money. But if you check the stats from that period of time, you notice something weird:

Image
Total, US dollars/capita, 1980 – 2016 Source: Aggregate National Accounts, SNA 2008 (or SNA 1993): Gross domestic product

OK, so French industrial production was going down, but somehow people's income was still growing.

Image

Let's check the Gini coefficient from that time and see if there was any marked increase in income inequality:
Image
Source: https://www.oecd.org/els/soc/OECDIncomeD ... France.pdf

The markers seem to hover around 0.29, which is not perfect, but it's still among the lowest first 15-20 in the world (which is good).

What we can glean from collating these three sets of data is that while industrial production was declining in France in the early 2000 and later, income has been steadily growing, while the inequality coefficient has been stable. This points to a change in the structure of the French economy, which has moved away from industrial production to a more service-intensive economy.

Image
User avatar
Netherland Antilles Laurence Drake
Jaeger
Posts: 2687
Joined: Dec 25, 2015

Re: En marche, citoyens!

Post by Laurence Drake »

Goodspeed wrote:
Rikikipu wrote:This an example that shows that being anti-euro is not that stupid :
Image
Translation : Industrial production of Germany, Italy, Spain and France during the time
How does it show that? The global economy went to shit in 2008, this had nothing to do with the €.

Maybe the global economy going to shit had something to do with the euro.
Top quality poster.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Which top 10 players do you wish to see listed?

All-time

Active last two weeks

Active last month

Supremacy

Treaty

Official

ESOC Patch

Treaty Patch

1v1 Elo

2v2 Elo

3v3 Elo

Power Rating

Which streams do you wish to see listed?

Twitch

Age of Empires III

Age of Empires IV