Streaming has become dangerous?

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Czech Republic EAGLEMUT
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by EAGLEMUT »

momuuu wrote:
EAGLEMUT wrote:
momuuu wrote:If you look at the general flow and then consider a certain amount of people switching from CD to steam (which is probably a significant amount) I'd strongly argue that those numbers should be interpreted as a decline. It's an acceptable decline though.

You can't argue that for ESO numbers. CD players can play just fine on ESO, so this is irrelevant. The average number of TAD players on ESO simply did not decline for the past two years, I think there's no way to twist that fact.

Id love to see the source plx

The source is this: http://agecommunity.com/_server_status_/
We've been periodically gathering data from the eso status page for years, so we can observe how the numbers change over time.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by momuuu »

And I'd like to see the periodically gathered data to analyse them. There's many possible distortions and hard to simply conclude something from these stats. The undisputable stat would be number of games played per month.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by sebnan12 »

edeholland wrote:
EAGLEMUT wrote:136020 new accounts have been created on ESO in the year 2017.

@sebnan12 What have you done???

well im not the only 1 with the free acc bug :) there are atleast 4 more known guys. im just the only one offering it to u :*
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

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Post by deleted_user »

sebnan12 wrote:
edeholland wrote:
EAGLEMUT wrote:136020 new accounts have been created on ESO in the year 2017.

@sebnan12 What have you done???

well im not the only 1 with the free acc bug :) there are atleast 4 more known guys. im just the only one offering it to u :*

We don't deserve you.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by lemmings121 »

momuuu wrote:
lemmings121 wrote:
momuuu wrote:Whats going on is that were trying to enjoy a dead game.

dead gaem?

Not even meming, just being serious. No support, fucking hard to get games going, all sorts of holes in the game and online environment, declining amount of players. By modern standards aoe is just dead. We're basically like that playergroup that comes together to play some obscure old game, except that we sorta have a "platform".


Thats kinda true, we are indeed playing a game with maybe a couple hundred active/engaged players that has no oficial suport, and aparently a security system developed by total amauters even by 2005 standards. But I suppose thats gonna remain consant for a bunch of years. (even after the day that someone in microsoft will find this old computer running a server for eso and decide that they need its space for something usefull).
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by momuuu »

It's hanging in there, but I think the reality is that once you become a medium-high skill level (majorish) it's attractive to give up the game and start playing similair competitive games where you can find a game in less than a few minutes (say overwatch, pubg, LoL, Dota, starcraft, rocket league, call of duty, counterstrike etc.), basically any big succesful competitive game has a pull on this community.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by QueenOfdestiny »

kami_ryu wrote:
Hazza54321 wrote:im still standing here screaming fuck the free world


i'll scream with u

@QueenOfdestiny

this is when you eat cheese

WE DON'T HAVE FRENCH CHEES ANYMORE!
shit juice :hmm:
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by sebnan12 »

sadly i think the guy who ddoses alot of people has multiple acc as he told me that the other day. wild assuming ofc because there could be several people ddosing. just saying they probably have alot ip's. gendarme helped me out in an older thread and since then i did not get ddosed anymore.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by Kaiserklein »

queenofdestiny wrote:
kami_ryu wrote:
Hazza54321 wrote:im still standing here screaming fuck the free world


i'll scream with u

@QueenOfdestiny

this is when you eat cheese

WE DON'T HAVE FRENCH CHEES ANYMORE!

We still have some rillettes, so there is still hope.
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LoOk_tOm wrote:I have something in particular against Kaisar (GERMANY NOOB mercenary LAMME FOREVER) And the other people (noobs) like suck kaiser ... just this ..
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by EAGLEMUT »

momuuu wrote:And I'd like to see the periodically gathered data to analyse them. There's many possible distortions and hard to simply conclude something from these stats.

Sure thing, I've uploaded the whole dataset I have on my server over to http://eso-community.net/assets/patch/files/esopop20180130.csv in CSV format if you want to take a closer look. A word of warning; it has over half a million records.
We're gathering the data on both my server and on ESOC server to make sure we can fill potential gaps in case one of downtime on either server. There should be only a single gap in the data of about a month between late 2016-03 and early 2016-04; that was when ESO upgrade happened, which broke the original data source and I needed some time to get my own crawler running.

Aggregating this data year by year, you should be able to see that the last time average TAD ESO population was higher than now was in 2013.

momuuu wrote:The undisputable stat would be number of games played per month.

Not sure about undisputable, with the number of pointtrading and such going on. It could be meaningful if filtered appropriately.
We are actually recording this data too, with the ESOC Elo Ladder, but only for about half a year so far, therefore there's not much to conclude from it yet. The unfiltered number of played games per month was about 80k during the observed timeframe.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by zoom »

Will Jerom accept reality now?
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by momuuu »

zoom wrote:Will Jerom accept reality now?

I would love to, if I could bear going through that thing. Which I can't. So I will now revert to an agnostic position: we cant know if eso pop is increasing or declining because figuring out how to takes more effort than mankind can do.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by Gendarme »

Someone who studies quantum physics struggles every time to accept reality, unfortunately. I feel sorry for you, Jerom Jeröm momuuu kekmaster.
Pay more attention to detail.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by aligator92 »

momuuu wrote:It's hanging in there, but I think the reality is that once you become a medium-high skill level (majorish) it's attractive to give up the game and start playing similair competitive games where you can find a game in less than a few minutes (say overwatch, pubg, LoL, Dota, starcraft, rocket league, call of duty, counterstrike etc.), basically any big succesful competitive game has a pull on this community.

Haha not at all! I spent years becoming halfway decent at this game. I am not going to spend the little time I have for gaming on being a noob in a new game again :D I doubt anyone here plays this to be a good player in a competetive game but because we simply love this game too much and/or are too lazy to learn anything else
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

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Post by EAGLEMUT »

momuuu wrote:
zoom wrote:Will Jerom accept reality now?

I would love to, if I could bear going through that thing. Which I can't. So I will now revert to an agnostic position: we cant know if eso pop is increasing or declining because figuring out how to takes more effort than mankind can do.

I don't understand what more do you want. I've aggregated/analysed the data for you and told you results. You said you wanted the raw periodically gathered data, so I give them all to you for playing with in Excel or whatever tool you're comfortable with, and then you still complain it "takes more effort than mankind can do". If you're interested in a different metric than simple yearly average, I can do the needful and tell you results again. You want average by month? Ez, just say so.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by momuuu »

EAGLEMUT wrote:
momuuu wrote:
zoom wrote:Will Jerom accept reality now?

I would love to, if I could bear going through that thing. Which I can't. So I will now revert to an agnostic position: we cant know if eso pop is increasing or declining because figuring out how to takes more effort than mankind can do.

I don't understand what more do you want. I've aggregated/analysed the data for you and told you results. You said you wanted the raw periodically gathered data, so I give them all to you for playing with in Excel or whatever tool you're comfortable with, and then you still complain it "takes more effort than mankind can do". If you're interested in a different metric than simple yearly average, I can do the needful and tell you results again. You want average by month? Ez, just say so.

I concluded you're probably right and then made a joke about the agnost position. I'd be interested in average by month, somehow I never really acquired excell skills (probably should look into that).
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by deleted_user »

momuuu wrote:
zoom wrote:Will Jerom accept reality now?

I would love to, if I could bear going through that thing. Which I can't. So I will now revert to an agnostic position: we cant know if eso pop is increasing or declining because figuring out how to takes more effort than mankind can do.

this is hilarious
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by EAGLEMUT »

momuuu wrote:I concluded you're probably right and then made a joke about the agnost position. I'd be interested in average by month, somehow I never really acquired excell skills (probably should look into that).

Monthly averages from ESOC data in a graph: https://plot.ly/~eaglemut/1.embed
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by momuuu »

Wuuut, that seems very counter intuitive as I clearly remember like back in 2011-2010 the ESO pop hitting 3000 every weekend while we're now barely in the 1000s.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by EAGLEMUT »

momuuu wrote:Wuuut, that seems very counter intuitive as I clearly remember like back in 2011-2010 the ESO pop hitting 3000 every weekend while we're now barely in the 1000s.

This is average TAD ESO pop, not total including nilla/wc. You can click on "edit chart" in the bottom right and select a different metric to display on the Y axis, I have nilla/wc/total available to select there instead.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by momuuu »

So then the actual decline made the game more centralized on one platform (basically all nilla guys going to TAD then) which has so far halted the decline. Yet, the nilla pool cannot be endless.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by momuuu »

You know what actually, maybe the idea that the game is dying comes from the average person improving: The better, the smaller the playerpool to play with and the more dead the game becomes.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by EAGLEMUT »

momuuu wrote:So then the actual decline made the game more centralized on one platform (basically all nilla guys going to TAD then) which has so far halted the decline. Yet, the nilla pool cannot be endless.

Observe that nilla decline actually slowed down from 2015 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2017 as well. The nilla decline in 2016 and 2017 was the lowest since 2008.
From this observation, it doesn't seem right to attribute increased TAD numbers in 2016/2017 entirely to declining nilla. By the same logic, TAD should have risen much more in the years before that, but TAD actually declined then.
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by Acolyte »

:wood:
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Re: Streaming has become dangerous?

Post by momuuu »

EAGLEMUT wrote:
momuuu wrote:So then the actual decline made the game more centralized on one platform (basically all nilla guys going to TAD then) which has so far halted the decline. Yet, the nilla pool cannot be endless.

Observe that nilla decline actually slowed down from 2015 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2017 as well. The nilla decline in 2016 and 2017 was the lowest since 2008.
From this observation, it doesn't seem right to attribute increased TAD numbers in 2016/2017 entirely to declining nilla. By the same logic, TAD should have risen much more in the years before that, but TAD actually declined then.

Yeah you're right, that prompted me to add the later comment. Maybe my dates are off, and I'm remembering 2010 as 2012

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