Ports, eco theory, is it worth it? I did some math.

[deleted_user]

http://imgur.com/MJie8C2

Basically, playing as ports, with hunting dogs in age 1, eco theory, and steel traps age 2, and all vills on food with constant production, eco theory theoretically pays off 300 resources ~4:50 game time and 700 resources ~7:15 game time. The actual time will be later taking into account that other resources gather slower than food, second tier wood and gold market ups aren't researched early, and villager idle time and movement.

I drew this up real quick at work after reading a couple better players than I say they always ship eco theory age 1 as ports. Normally, I elect to save a shipment and basically send back to back to back resource shipments in age 2. All the information is on that sheet there I linked but my hand writing isn't great and it's small so I'll talk a bit here:

I'm assuming several things, the first that the card arrives at the same time you click up to age 2, which I said was 2:00 game time. This is my "time 0" for the whole thing. The second, all villagers are always on food all the time. Third, hunting dogs is already researched, so the gather rate from the start is base + 10% + 10%. Also, steel traps becomes in effect instantaneously upon hitting age 2, as well as constant vill production from 2 TCs.

All these assumptions produce a very conservative answer, and I could quickly do this again with a more realistic approach, such as splitting resource gatherings between resources in a way that might mimic in-game.

The neat thing is you can put these points in a graph and have excel match the curve and see where it goes up to 99 vills. You could calculate this info minus eco theory and find percent differences, etc.

Perhaps the coolest thing about eco theory is that the net resources gathered is not a linear curve. I think we all knew that, but if you think about it there are some real advantages to eco theory over 3 vills. While 3 vills pay off 700 resources very quickly (~5:45) and then some, they will only be doing so at a constant rate. Whereas with eco theory, you may pay off 700 resources much later than 3 vill, but the payoff for 1500 resources might come much earlier. I guess it's common fucking sense, and that's why treaty players ship those cards, but I hadn't thought about where the two might cross. It's probably somewhere around the 10-12 minute mark, as ports (2 tc op). A bit earlier than I would have thought.

Let me know, where I inevitably messed up, thanks.

[Mimsy for President]

Off-topic and absolutely stupid remark but we share the same typography.

[deleted_user]

haha I love my handwriting! I love yours too

[Dsy]

Eco theory is a pretty good card. If you send early it can give you a lot of res lategame.

[rsy]

Good job! Thanks for doing all that shitty math for us man! Ports go above the 10-12 min mark quite a few times so this seems very nice info

[britishmusketeer]

Also eco theory lets you age slightly faster.

[lordraphael]

I used to be a great supporter of eco theory as the first card for port. But as it stands right now Im not really sure if I would send it in age 1 unless I can build a tp early on . Having 2 shipments ready in age 2 is probably better for your build than eco theory.

[briowl]

great post/thread

[goongoon]

Ok. I'll try a more realistic approach to this since it's really topical and controversal.
If we compare 3v to eco theory, we basically compare 4v to eco theory because 3v got a max of 30 % (in market techs) to them, which makes them more like 4v. Eco theory on the other hand doesn't stack on HD and ST.
Secondly, eco theory is exactly 10 % more eco output. Therefore, when you reach 40v, you have reached the breakeven with the 3v shipment.
Okay that's the math.
There are other things factoring into 3v being better such as the snowball effect. More eco earlier = better snowball effect. You can't quantify this but it exists.
All in all 3v is unarguably better than eco theory. The sheer break-even without the snowball effect is around min 16, even with 2 tcs. (Note, that's not the point where u reach 40v becuz 40v isnt actually the break-even, it's just the point where the gap that the 3v made in eco starts to close. So the actual break even is around 50v)
Since port does not have 3v we might compare it to not sending a shipment at all. This is where it becomes super weird becuzz you are comparing builds with certain peak points vs smoother builds with a weaker peak point.
For example: BO eco theory, 700c, 600c Vs 700c 600c 700w. Both of the builds are usually used for cav semi. However one provides way more pop space with the 700w and the other build provides more food and coin with eco theory. if you need to gather all the 700w with your first build. you can be almost 100 % sure that ur peak point is gonna be way weaker than the other build. So the question is can you smoothen your build enough to fit the eco theory in. That way you would basically dodge the snowball effect.
A good example for dodging the snowball is effect is the india sep rush strat. BO 5 sep, 600w, xxx, Vs 5 sep, 2.35w/sec
With the 600w you usally build a cons, a stable, and imp beaucracy. Now, what happens if we dont send 600w. Is 2.35w gonna be able to give us the stuff we need in time so that it doesnt snowball? It does; the first thing you need is the consulat, since your next shipment will be 300 export. The export is altho gonna take 2 mins untill it arrives. Enough time for 2.35w to pay for it. The stable is usually not needed at that time, since u still have sepoys left that can help you defend ur hutns now. Beaucracy is a net loss of 2v at this point which is compensated by 2.35w, which is 5v. The next thing you buy is the stable and then eventually you will get imp beaucracy. It's probably smoother and therefore better. if you can prevent a snowball situation eco is always the better way to go.

[Marco1698]

It's good but you want save the first shipment for the age2 as port

[deleted_user0]

goongoon posted what I was too lazy to post.

In team it's decent cause your individual unit output is not so important and they tend to go late game.

[deleted_user]

Nice thoughts goongoon, makes a lot of sense. I'm not sure about the 3v = 4v thing though nor am I sure the payoff is around 50 vills and 16 min game time.

But the snowball effect is great, and yeah the resources you get in the early game let you use that advantage to a greater effect than the advantage your opponent might receive later in the game. 3 vill is undeniably better than Eco theory, especially civs which have 3 vill shipment and don't get an extra tc when aging.

But the biggest advantage you provided of skipping Eco theory To ship 700 wood is actually huge. Hadn't thought of that.

[Jaeger]

Nice thoughts goongoon, makes a lot of sense. I'm not sure about the 3v = 4v thing though nor am I sure the payoff is around 50 vills and 16 min game time.

But the snowball effect is great, and yeah the resources you get in the early game let you use that advantage to a greater effect than the advantage your opponent might receive later in the game. 3 vill is undeniably better than Eco theory, especially civs which have 3 vill shipment and don't get an extra tc when aging.

But the biggest advantage you provided of skipping Eco theory To ship 700 wood is actually huge. Hadn't thought of that.

I think eco theory + a small xp treasure will make you reach age 3 like 10-15 seconds faster, which is nice and might allow you to ship 1k wood.

[goongoon]

Nice thoughts goongoon, makes a lot of sense. I'm not sure about the 3v = 4v thing though nor am I sure the payoff is around 50 vills and 16 min game time.

But the snowball effect is great, and yeah the resources you get in the early game let you use that advantage to a greater effect than the advantage your opponent might receive later in the game. 3 vill is undeniably better than Eco theory, especially civs which have 3 vill shipment and don't get an extra tc when aging.

But the biggest advantage you provided of skipping Eco theory To ship 700 wood is actually huge. Hadn't thought of that.

It's no shame. A lot of people don't understand that % shipments don't stack but vill shipments do. If you thought that 3v is only 3v after steel traps, then there is a flaw to your testing. The 16 min thing however, is just an estimate, the purpose of it is to show that the break-even is NOT at 40v BUT LATER, since 40v is the point where you don't have losses anymore but not the point where you already have a net profit. I'm sure you have had derivations in school.

[Cocaine]

This hand written analysis is some next level stuff, I can confirm.

[deleted_user]

Nice thoughts goongoon, makes a lot of sense. I'm not sure about the 3v = 4v thing though nor am I sure the payoff is around 50 vills and 16 min game time.

But the snowball effect is great, and yeah the resources you get in the early game let you use that advantage to a greater effect than the advantage your opponent might receive later in the game. 3 vill is undeniably better than Eco theory, especially civs which have 3 vill shipment and don't get an extra tc when aging.

But the biggest advantage you provided of skipping Eco theory To ship 700 wood is actually huge. Hadn't thought of that.

It's no shame. A lot of people don't understand that % shipments don't stack but vill shipments do.

If you thought that 3v is only 3v after steel traps, then there is a flaw to your testing. The 16 min thing however, is just an estimate, the purpose of it is to show that the break-even is NOT at 40v BUT LATER, since 40v is the point where you don't have losses anymore but not the point where you already have a net profit. I'm sure you have had derivations in school.

We're in a misunderstanding. Of course I calculated 3 vill with steel traps, which does make it almost 4 vill (3.9). I keep villagers and rate gathered separate and hadn't realized the equivalent was so high. So the math was right. And it turns out that 3 vill resources gathered meets eco theory, 2 TC resources gathered when ports have roughly 46 vills total. So then game time for that, assuming constant vill production, is roughly 10:30 or so in game time. Realistically though this time frame will be pushed back though because it's hard to hit 46 vills at 10 minutes. Maybe 12 min is a better prediction for in-game results?

So yeah, my original estimate of 10-12 minutes is still right. Your original estimate of ~50 vills is still right, turns out it doesn't take ports that long to reach that. I hadn't initially thought your 50 vill estimate was right because even though mathematically I counted 3 vills as 3.9 vills, I still kept them as 3 in my head and thought the payoff was more ~40 vills.

Of course I've had derivations in school. I'll never claim to be the smartest guy around, but I feel confident the math I've done so far has been correct; I've just had the mental error of counting 3v still as 3v in my head.

[Garja]

As pointed out it is not about comparing it with 3v but rather with a colonial shipment. That's hard to do with math alone since having a little more resources early on might have a lot of utility compared to let's say 700w at 7.30 min in the game. For example, eco theory helps dropping the market+TP in transition. Also you must consider other things such as the 20 free pop from colonial and fortress TC that already save you 200w. On top of all this eco theory is just a good shipment overall when you start having 50 or so vills.
On the other hand, straight ff builds generally aim to reach fortress asap and are played vs stuff like rushes so there isnt a problem of efficency and therefore the extra value provided by eco theory is not useful, while an extra add in colo/fortress definetly is.

[forgrin]

Something anecdotal here that I find with Ports: with eco theory you can gather wood more easily in transition which helps alot. Usually when you don't send eco theory you save 100w from 400w to get steel traps and TP in transition (so collecting 300w for placer+tp+25 for St) since you don't need the house. You need to send 700w usually for housing in transition to III. But ususally I find if I do send eco theory I can collect an extra 100w fairly easily (going a little bit into colonial) so you can delay 700w for 1k wood etc a bit more easily.

Applies to the land semi ff build with TP in transition and market start.