Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by godzillaking »

Yeah, That would be interesting to see. There are ways to program some randomness to it. Basically, run a bunch of simulations and graph it and determine at what time they intersect.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

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Post by zoom »

gibson wrote:Lol diarouga makes an actually helpful post and within minutes it's gone
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by zoom »

godzillaking wrote:I am a major and I think this would be a very interesting subject to throw into some simulations. It would be pretty easy to program if I can get some averages somehow. Is the final product for determining which is better based on total resources gathered? I gotta feel that at some point late game VC will payoff.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Jaeger »

Mitoe wrote:
ovi12 wrote:
Mitoe wrote:Allow me to disprove the whole VC nonsense


I don't think you should include the 3v being 300 resources. What happens is you spend 16x135w to have X villagers, while the other guy spends 19x88w, to have X villagers; that's all there is to it. There's no reason here to add 300f to the first guy. At this point, since you both have the same number of vills, you will constantly be a huge (16x135w) - (19x88w) = 488w down, until you build the rest of your manors and slowly catch up. In the best case scenario that you build all 19 houses at once and are 3 vills vills ahead right away, it still takes almost 10 minutes for the 3 vills to make up for the (then) 900w discrepancy.

In my defense I gave up on math after high school.


However, in the second scenario (19 manors vs 19 manors), I see no reason I wouldn't include it. That's the raw value of the shipment that the VC player will not have.


Let me see if I can get lucky and be right 2 times in a row. I don't think you should include the 300f in this case either. As long as you are both making vills, you are both spending 100f per 25 seconds. The VC guy will never have to spend 300f more than you in a (normal) game. Now when you get to 96 versus 99 vills, then yes the guy who did VC has to spend 300 extra food. But it doesn't really come into play before that.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Mitoe »

I don't really understand what you're saying.

The value of VC is ~900w (if you build all 19 manors). The value of 3v is 300f, and slightly more because you'll have a temporary immediate vill advantage that you wouldn't have if you did VC.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by drsingh »

Villager shipments can't be equated to resources.
3 villager = 180 vsec per min = 90 wood / 150 food per min. It is much more than 300 food.
{For simplicity ignoring market upgrades}

VC shipment = 847 wood (18x{135-88=47}) = 1694 vsec. After full manor boom. At 4 mins it is only worth 47xno of manors built yet. VC is not a resource shipment but more like a resource trickle. Which runs out after building all manors.

3 villager are better than VC boom only after 9 min 25 sec from 1st shipment. When both boom undisturbed. There is ofcourse snowball effect because of more boost to early eco during this early 9 mins. So against boomy strats in 1v1 brit can best boom through VC. A 3v strat will take very long to catch up, maybe not before the game ends.

In case against an aggressive strategy. If boom is inconsistent. 3v is better if you are not building more than 2 manors per min on avg. So its more versatile. If you still think you can manage to build more than 2 manors per min(avg) then VC is better as resource trickle.
Again it depends on timing of the strategy. VC build will be good for timings in 6min - 11 min window. (More or less. program will be able to find out for sure)

@Goodspeed
Btw can that simulator program be used with other civs? If so are you willing to share it?
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by momuuu »

The actual point is that I dont think booming that much is viable very frequently. Not with 3 vills nor with VC.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Garja »

Vills from manors after about 130 pop are generally not paying for themselves in your average 1v1 game.
Further houses are mostly made for pop and because you spare some wood anyway after producing from 2-3 military buildings.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Goodspeed »

@WickedCossack
I simulated the coin start with both a 3v start and VC start. Both builds go market + HD early discovery age. Keep in mind coin is the worst possible start for a VC build.

With the 3v build I made 17 manors, with the VC build I made 20 (to even out the vill counts). So keep in mind the VC build is 81 XP ahead. As you can see in the logs below, as a result the 700c shipment arrives much earlier for the VC build (middle time is game time).

At the end of the timer (stopped it at 8:00) the VC build has 2341 food and 1611 wood. The 3v build has 2097 food and 1530 wood. This is despite the 3v build aging up 4 seconds earlier due to the 3v shipment.

3v build wrote:15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 01:46 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 02:11 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 02:23 | Shipment Vills3 arrived
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 02:36 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 02:49 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 16 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 03:19 | Researched GangSaw
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 03:24 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 03:42 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 03:58 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 04:12 | Researched PhilosophersPrince
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 04:13 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:02 | 04:27 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 04:40 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 04:43 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 04:52 | Shipment Crates700w arrived
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 04:56 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:01 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 7 to wood, 13 to coin
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:05 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:08 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:14 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:17 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:20 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:22 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:24 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 27 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:26 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:29 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:30 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:41 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:55 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:58 | Shipment Vills5 arrived
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 05:58 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 06:00 | Allocated 19 vills to food, 20 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 06:01 | Researched SteelTraps
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 06:19 | Built Barracks
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 06:20 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 06:30 | Built Barracks
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 06:45 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 07:10 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 07:35 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 07:41 | Shipment Crates700c arrived
15/02/2017 16:06:03 | 08:00 | Trained Villager

VC build wrote:15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 01:46 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 02:11 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 02:23 | Shipment VirginiaCompany arrived
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 02:36 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 02:55 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 13 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 03:25 | Researched GangSaw
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 03:27 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 03:41 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 03:55 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 04:07 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 04:16 | Researched PhilosophersPrince
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 04:19 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 04:30 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 04:42 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 04:44 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 04:53 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 04:56 | Shipment Crates700w arrived
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:03 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:04 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 6 to wood, 12 to coin
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:09 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:11 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:17 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:19 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:21 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:23 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:25 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:27 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:29 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:31 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:32 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 30 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:33 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:34 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:40 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:50 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:54 | Shipment Vills5 arrived
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:58 | Allocated 20 vills to food, 20 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 05:59 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 06:08 | Researched SteelTraps
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 06:19 | Built Barracks
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 06:24 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 06:28 | Built Barracks
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 06:49 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 07:00 | Shipment Crates700c arrived
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 07:14 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:06:08 | 07:39 | Trained Villager
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Goodspeed »

@Aizamk
Simulated your age1 manors variation (tried with 4 manors and with 5).

With 4 manors the age up is okay but with 5 it's quite slow. With 4 manors in age1, you are only 217/397 XP to your next shipment when hitting colonial at 4:34. With 5 manors you are at 352/397 but you are hitting colonial at 4:56.

So my conclusion would be it only seems viable with very good tres (you would need food and/or wood to age up at a reasonable time and XP to make sure you can send the 700w as you hit colonial), but even then I think I would prefer TP + manor or simply 2 manor and VC only.

Logs:
4 manors in age1 wrote:15/02/2017 16:34:05 | 00:56 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 10 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:34:05 | 01:21 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:34:05 | 01:26 | Switched 4 villagers from Wood to Food
15/02/2017 16:34:05 | 01:37 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:34:05 | 01:46 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:34:15 | 01:55 | Allocated 12 vills to food, 0 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:34:38 | 02:11 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:34:38 | 02:15 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:34:38 | 02:18 | Shipment Vills3 arrived
15/02/2017 16:34:38 | 02:36 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:34:42 | 03:01 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:35:05 | 03:04 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 20 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:35:32 | 03:38 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:35:32 | 03:52 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:35:32 | 04:06 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:35:32 | 04:20 | Shipment VirginiaCompany arrived
15/02/2017 16:35:32 | 04:20 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:35:32 | 04:33 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:35:32 | 04:34 | Researched PhilosophersPrince

5 manors in age1 wrote:15/02/2017 16:36:17 | 00:56 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 10 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:36:17 | 01:21 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:36:17 | 01:26 | Switched 4 villagers from Wood to Food
15/02/2017 16:36:17 | 01:37 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:36:17 | 01:46 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:36:26 | 02:11 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:36:26 | 02:15 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:36:26 | 02:18 | Shipment Vills3 arrived
15/02/2017 16:36:32 | 02:26 | Allocated 17 vills to food, 0 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:36:38 | 02:36 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:36:38 | 02:46 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:36:38 | 03:01 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:36:41 | 03:26 | Trained Villager
15/02/2017 16:36:51 | 03:26 | Allocated 0 vills to food, 22 to wood, 0 to coin
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 03:58 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 04:11 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 04:15 | Shipment VirginiaCompany arrived
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 04:24 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 04:35 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 04:40 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 04:48 | Built Manor
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 04:56 | Researched PhilosophersPrince
15/02/2017 16:37:02 | 04:56 | Built Manor
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Goodspeed »

drsingh wrote:@Goodspeed
Btw can that simulator program be used with other civs? If so are you willing to share it?
The code is written for all civs except Otto, Dutch, Russia, Spain and Germans but I have only tested Brit (and some niche features of other civs) so it's likely full of bugs still. Also the scripting language documentation is unfinished and some core features are unfinished or not working properly.

But if you can find use for it then by all means, I could use people testing it ;) I've not worked on it for about a month now because I've been... distracted but I do plan on finishing it at some point.
Attached a zip containing the program. Some of the scripts I wrote today for the above tests are included in /scripts/ you can load them by saying "load [filename]" (excluding the ".txt").
Also attached the current source code.
And the doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ny8 ... sp=sharing

If you end up using it and run into any unexpected behaviour I'd love to hear, can exchange Skype info via PM.
Attachments
sourcecode.zip
(103.8 KiB) Downloaded 45 times
BuildOrders_v001.zip
(199.45 KiB) Downloaded 22 times
No Flag OrangeRage
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by OrangeRage »

Well either right or wrong you can't help but be amazed at GoodSpeeds effort to prove him point.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Jaeger »

Mitoe wrote:I don't really understand what you're saying.

The value of VC is ~900w (if you build all 19 manors). The value of 3v is 300f, and slightly more because you'll have a temporary immediate vill advantage that you wouldn't have if you did VC.


Yeah you're right that if you add up the cost of everything on the map for both players, the one who sent 3v will have 300f more. But that 300f is not like a crate that you can spend; at no point will you be able to get out 3 more musks than the other guy because you have 300 more food. You may be able to have more musks later when your villager lead nets you more resources, but it has nothing to do with the vills costing 300f; it's only about the resources those vills gather.

When you have 99 vills and the other guy has 96, that's the point where he will have to spend 300f more than you, so that's when you can truly say you are 300f up compared to your opponent.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Mitoe »

Sorry Ovi, but I still don't really understand your logic here.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Jaeger »

Mitoe wrote:Sorry Ovi, but I still don't really understand your logic here.

Yeah sorry im not very good at explaining things. So I'll just intimidate you into submission by having other people agree with me
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Goodspeed »

I couldn't explain it better than you did. Maybe the issue here is in that we are talking about boom builds where we are trying to maximize vill counts, and to make up for the +3v the VC build has to spend 3x 88w. So in the context of this build order comparison the 3v build would indeed be 264 wood ahead plus any resources the vills are able to gather while the 3v build is still ahead in vill count. However if you count that you also have to count the part where the VC build is ahead in vill count (in early colonial). There are a lot of variables to take into account which is why I thought it would be a good idea to simulate the game rather than use math. Less prone to error.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Jaeger »

Mitoe wrote:Sorry Ovi, but I still don't really understand your logic here.

Ok I thought of a new way. Having the 3 extra vills is like having 3 100f crates in your base that are surrounded by a small but inpenetrable wall that you can only penetrate when you reach 99 vills; while the food is technically yours, there's nothing you can do with it. Maybe those food crates are magical and give you a trickle of resources exactly equal to 3 vills gathering. You should include that trickle as part of your eco, but not the 300f itself.

Another way to look at it is: if I send Distributivism and you send 3v, it wouldn't be fair to say that you are up 300f over me; you are just up .5 vills. So in the say way if I send npothing and you send 3 vills, you are not up 300f, you are just up 3 vills (but with the caveat that when you will have 99 vills I will only have 96, so yes at that point I will have to spend 300f more than you did for all your eco).
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Mitoe »

All I want to know is why you wouldn't include the value of the 3v shipment as 300f.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by _H2O »

All this testing ignores the fact that it's only being tested for the absolute best case which is where someone sees you go VC but let's you build 20 manors before army anyway and causes you no sub optimal walk time or hunt denial.

When you play normal you can afford to build your houses spread out and minimize your walk time. The typical VC build makes house too quickly to spread properly and is at too much risk. That villager second difference is far from trivial.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Goodspeed »

_H2O wrote:All this testing ignores the fact that it's only being tested for the absolute best case which is where someone sees you go VC but let's you build 20 manors before army anyway and causes you no sub optimal walk time or hunt denial.

When you play normal you can afford to build your houses spread out and minimize your walk time. The typical VC build makes house too quickly to spread properly and is at too much risk. That villager second difference is far from trivial.
If you would test the build you would find that in most semi-FF match ups and even in some colonial ones you can actually afford this rather easily. Mostly you can even afford the 5v shipment on top of it all. Mixing in 1 rax for a pike batch in early colonial is good in some cases (like against Germans) and doesn't really hinder your boom much. You are still maxing manors off the 700w or slightly after.
Spreading houses is overrated imo. I mean it's good to build a couple on strategic positions but people overdo it a lot. I'd rather wall with them. Anyway you have the option with VC.

You can argue that the boom style itself isn't viable, which I can't really disprove with numbers alone but I would disagree with some confidence. Not in every match up obviously, and not on every map, but yeah it seems perfectly viable to me.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by drsingh »

Mitoe wrote:All I want to know is why you wouldn't include the value of the 3v shipment as 300f.


This is the approach used to value military shipments. But can't be used for villager shipments.

Villagers don't cost anything actually. They are a resource trickle which pays for their cost (if produced from tc) soon enough and keep giving more.
If this was a trickle shipment instead. Would you value it by how much it has produced by the time of timing attack. Or by equating it to villagers and finding cost.

Your calculations already included the resources produced by those villagers. So nothing more needs to be counted.

You could argue that since it was a colonial shipment. Its supposed to be equal to 300 resources. But that is same for VC shipment also.

Ability to produce villagers is the real resource for economic growth. And there are usually restrictions to how many villagers can be on map at any given time. Villager shipments, additional town centres, manor boom, trickles are what lets bypass it.

Both shipments are similar. VC is a stronger but short lived resource trickle, which requires full commitment for manor boom. 3V are more versatile, weaker unlimited trickle. Better against aggresion. And in longer games.
But the time both booms reach 99 vill pop, 3v build would have already outgatherd by a huge margin. Counting 300 food at that point wouldnt matter.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Jaeger »

Mitoe wrote:All I want to know is why you wouldn't include the value of the 3v shipment as 300f.

I guess the short answer is: because you never actually have the ability to spend that 300f that the vills are worth. When you ship 3 vills you do not get 300f to spend. You can only spend the resources those vills gather.

Lets say the game timer starts at 0:00 and we both have 0 resources and 0 crates. I have 7 vills you have 10 vills, and neither of us makes any vills. After 10 minutes, your vills gathered X total resources, my vills gathered Y total resources. Now you will be able to make musketeers worth X resources, and I will be able to make musketeers worth Y resources. You can't make musketeers worth X+300 resources just because you have 3 more vills than me.

Now to explain the 96 vs 99 vill concept:
Suppose that before those 10 minutes are up, I decide to make 3 vills to catch up to you. After 10 minutes, you will still be able to make musketeers worth X resources. But I will only be able to make musketeers worth Y-300 resources (well a little more since my new vills will gather some, but that's not important). So in a sense, this is the scenario when you have an "extra" 300 resources over me. When we are both constantly making vills, our resources (our "X" and "Y") are just determined by what the vills gather. It's only when you stop making vills, but I continue, that you are an "extra" 300f ahead than you should normally be just based on what your vills gather.
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by Jaeger »

Fashtanden?
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by blackwidow »

ovi12 wrote:Fashtanden?


Verstanden* :)
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Re: Disproving Virginia Company @GoodSpeed

Post by momuuu »

Honestly though it seems clear to me that the difference between VC and 3 vills + all out manor boom is very small and it also seems to me that the latter has turned out to almost never be viable. You can get more value out of producing units as brits most of the time, imo.

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