Mimsy for President wrote:Dolan wrote:Mimsy for President wrote:I may be wrong, but I think neither Russia nor the USA wants this coup d'état. It's not in their interest imo.
Turkey was turning too much back to Islamism and Erdogan's rule was turning authoritarian. He was also suspected to support ISIS in Syria.
It looks like removing him from power serves American interests. Not Russian, yeah.
But Turkey is their NATO ally and so far, Erdogan was anti-Russian enough, although Russia-Turkey relations have been getting better lately. Also, John Kerry just said he hoped "for stability, peace, continuity in Turkey". Bluff?
Involvement from the USA doesnt even seem that unlikely imo. 1) Erdogan has the support of the majority of voters in Turkey, meaning a coup has a very minor chance of success and isnt sth a sane man would do, unless you have some mighty ally backing you in secret.
2) Relationsship with russia was improving at a tremendous rate. Nothing which the USA can be happy about. And as Dolan said Erdogan was trying as hard as he could to transform the last decently functioning democracy in the middle east into an autocracy with islamistic features, again, nothing the USA would like.
However would the USA really risk everything to get rid of Erdogan? Turkey is still a NATO member and a historical ally of the west in this region. And even in an authocratic regime this relationship would countinue. Its not like the USA and the other western Nations are very picky when it comes down to their partners ( see saudi arabia, katar, China,etc )
Personally, Neither am I thinking this coup will succed nor do I believe that the USA is involved in this. If the USA is actually involved in this the are really playing with fire. To use an aoe analogy : They are trying to rush germany with dutch. high risk- low reward. Not sth you would do if you are clever.