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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Posts: 5338

07 Nov 2017, 13:07

Hello,

Feel free to discuss anything related to betting here. Further betting updates will be posted in this thread, and all participants will be tagged in them. So if you're a better, keep an eye on your notifications in the top right.

My strategy: Betting on the underdogs, making some big wins here and there but eventually losing it all like I always do :sad:

Sign ups & rules: viewtopic.php?f=19&t=12628
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Sweden Gendarme
ESOC Dev Team
Donator 02
Posts: 2359
ESO: Gendarme

07 Nov 2017, 13:16

You snowball pretty easily, so it's about those early wins. This is why everyone needs to participate in the betting early on to not fall behind!

...hehehe...
duck wrote:man it really sucks when you have to agree with gendarme on things
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

07 Nov 2017, 13:19

Well, people have certainly come back from nothing to win the event before. Especially in the later rounds people often throw a lot of points in the mix, and the wins tend to be huge.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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New Zealand zoom
Gendarme
Posts: 6780
ESO: Funnu
Location: Ramadanistan

07 Nov 2017, 13:45

It's about early wins and donations, in my experience.

Have there been any changes to the rules?
sudmakmak wrote:This patch Keshik don't have buff anti cavalry = noob patch2.0
and don't have nerf hard japan = noob patch2.0
because all more noob player at this patch = noob logic.
or they maybe have boyfriend.(japanese boyfriend fuck your ass them)
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Germany japanesegeneral
Dragoon
Posts: 277
ESO: JapaneseGeneral
Location: Germany

07 Nov 2017, 17:59

Has someone done an elo based empiric expected value yet? Might be fun to just bet based on data from past tournaments.

#iloveempiricstudies
6 petards a day keep the doctor away.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

19 Nov 2017, 17:12

@queenofdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Germany queenofdestiny
Lancer
Posts: 718
ESO: QueenOfdestiny

19 Nov 2017, 18:51

Goodspeed wrote:@queenofdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that :unsure:
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Posts: 5338

19 Nov 2017, 21:25

queenofdestiny wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:@queenofdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that :unsure:
Almost 2-0 though. Good try
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Sweden Gendarme
ESOC Dev Team
Donator 02
Posts: 2359
ESO: Gendarme

19 Nov 2017, 21:32

queenofdestiny wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:@queenofdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that :unsure:
It is a standard rule in betting. If you were going to win 2-0 but you had bet on yourself 2-1 it would give you reasons to intentionally throw the second game to win money. This has been a problem in professional sports before (and perhaps still is) and is never allowed.
duck wrote:man it really sucks when you have to agree with gendarme on things
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United States of America Cometk
Lancer
Posts: 974
ESO: black_thought

19 Nov 2017, 21:32

fuck this gay earth
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

19 Nov 2017, 21:42

japanesegeneral wrote:Has someone done an elo based empiric expected value yet? Might be fun to just bet based on data from past tournaments.

#iloveempiricstudies
I don't think there's enough data to do it based on past tournaments, but one could certainly do it based on elo. Problem would be that elo is often inaccurate because people are inactive or play mostly unrated games.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Gendarme
Posts: 6780
ESO: Funnu
Location: Ramadanistan

19 Nov 2017, 21:45

Cometk wrote:fuck this gay earth
Please don't use that word. That word is hurtful.
sudmakmak wrote:This patch Keshik don't have buff anti cavalry = noob patch2.0
and don't have nerf hard japan = noob patch2.0
because all more noob player at this patch = noob logic.
or they maybe have boyfriend.(japanese boyfriend fuck your ass them)
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

19 Nov 2017, 21:51

The first results are in. QueenOfdestiny got pretty close to sweeping deadrising78, which would've been bad news for a lot of people and very good news for some (most notably @Kaiserklein). But deadrising ended up winning 2-1, which still wasn't the most expected result but certainly less exciting. @blackwidow takes home the biggest win, 2324 points, and is our first man to beat. The second result, bwinner1 2-0 purple_squid, was expected and therefore unimpactful, although betting legend @zoom did manage to throw away 1350 points there.

Standings

The finished matches have been replaced by two new ones. Both are scheduled to be played this Wednesday evening. Be sure to get your bets in on time!
Major_Dark vs Templar_
jesus3 vs Tedere12


GL!

Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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France Kaiserklein
Jaeger
Posts: 4352
Location: Paris

19 Nov 2017, 22:01

Just give queen control groups, and I win the betting event
kickass_OP wrote:lbs vs cavs no is good

kickass_OP wrote:kaiser won cuz german is lammer hard

look wrote:I have something in particular against Kaisar (GERMANY NOOB mercenary LAMME FOREVER) And the other people (noobs) like suck kaiser ... just this ..
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Poland pecelot
Retired Contributor
Donator 02
Posts: 8053
ESO: Pezet
Location: Warsaw, Poland

19 Nov 2017, 22:33

I would like to donate 499 points to the Comet, k?
Memento: quanto crassior deliciarum causa factus eris, tanto difficilior impressione fugies
Tokugawa Ieyasu :chinese:
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

19 Nov 2017, 23:32

Done. @Cometk
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
Great Britain Hazza54321
Jaeger
Posts: 3507

20 Nov 2017, 01:54

can you remove my tag, im not in it :p
Venividivici_w: i heard h20 signed up last minute. Prob waited for roby not signing up so he wouldnt get smashed again

Well, Im the best thing that happened to aoe3 - vane stoilov 2k17
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United States of America Cometk
Lancer
Posts: 974
ESO: black_thought

20 Nov 2017, 02:31

pecelot wrote:I would like to donate 499 points to the Comet, k?
y̵̧͎̱͐͛̓̄̈́o̸̥͉̩̦̊̅̑͝͝ų̵̩͗r̸̦̈́̀̽ ̴̜̭̮̲̤̈́͒̀̊͐f̶̛̖̪̳̫͕͐̈̔͝o̵̭̖̪̅́ḷ̸̨̧̍̋̈́̽͜͝l̶̝̪̈́̆͋͝y̸͔̝͙͒ ̴̡̫̦̍͘w̶̞̤̼̉̈̎̚͝į̶̮̦̺͍͂́͋͒̕l̵̟̹̠̆l̵͕̈́͒ ̴͖̀̿͒͆̍b̷̮̩̻̟̋̄̓ę̵̝̺̲͔̈́ ̵͙̞̤̣͂͒̓̀͝y̷͈̰̻͘o̴̡̮̦̟͋̾̚u̴̘͑̓̈́r̵͇̩̲̕ ̶͖̟̪̅̉͜ṳ̷̱͚͈͙̈́̋̍̕n̴̠̙͈̰̣̐̇̓d̵̨͔̈̒͋ơ̶͕͕̜̼̿̊̂ͅị̸̰͑n̸̟̍̽͜g̵̺̀̓̏̍͐
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United States of America musketeer925
ESOC Dev Team
Donator 01
Posts: 1458
ESO: musketeer925

20 Nov 2017, 16:00

Might be of interest to betters:

viewtopic.php?f=28&t=3884&p=269939#p269939

Also, @Goodspeed do you mind if I move this thread (as well as the signups) to the discussion section for the tournament?
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

20 Nov 2017, 16:06

That's fine with me. The sign ups I always post in general for visibility, but that's not important anymore now.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Germany japanesegeneral
Dragoon
Posts: 277
ESO: JapaneseGeneral
Location: Germany

20 Nov 2017, 22:04

@tedere12 please team up with me in the betting event let Jesus win the series 2-0.
Attachments
odds op.PNG
odds op.PNG (21.76 KiB) Viewed 402 times
6 petards a day keep the doctor away.
Greece tedere12
Jaeger
Posts: 2131
ESO: Tedere12
Location: Greece

20 Nov 2017, 22:07

lol
"Well, now you are playing otto, but tommorow you might become a rapist, or a serial killer" -VaneStoilov

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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

22 Nov 2017, 20:44

@blackwidow's reign was as short-lived as they come. He was stomped from his throne by none other than @aqwer, who is no stranger to winning points this event. It took him only 4 matches to break 10000, which is record-breaking speed. Well done!
He's still in first, but did drop some points and currently sits at 9404. Lurking in his shadow is @musketeer925, on 8160 points, and looking at this kid's bets he's only got one direction to go: up. With 5 matches played, the first consistency scores are showing on the standings sheet (column F) and musketeer925 is the only one boasting that sought-after flawless record. Clearly, this is a man we need to keep an eye on.

We have a bunch of matches still to go this round. Good thing we had 2 weeks for this one. Bets have been opened for another 3 matches. It looks like all will be played in the weekend.
_NT_sven vs ottolol
JorisIV vs GiBthedurrty
KingRichardIIII vs Hidalgito


May the betting Gods favour ye!

Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
User avatar
United States of America musketeer925
ESOC Dev Team
Donator 01
Posts: 1458
ESO: musketeer925

22 Nov 2017, 21:30

It may be my first time, but I'm no stranger to statistics. Watch out, @aqwer.
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Sweden Gendarme
ESOC Dev Team
Donator 02
Posts: 2359
ESO: Gendarme

22 Nov 2017, 22:29

> be me
> be unlucky first rounds
> lose all points but 147
> end up winning betting event nonetheless
> mfw
duck wrote:man it really sucks when you have to agree with gendarme on things

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