Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Goodspeed »

Hello,

Feel free to discuss anything related to betting here. Further betting updates will be posted in this thread, and all participants will be tagged in them. So if you're a better, keep an eye on your notifications in the top right.

My strategy: Betting on the underdogs, making some big wins here and there but eventually losing it all like I always do :sad:

Sign ups & rules: viewtopic.php?f=19&t=12628
User avatar
Sweden Gendarme
Gendarme
Donator 03
Posts: 5132
Joined: Sep 11, 2016
ESO: Gendarme

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Gendarme »

You snowball pretty easily, so it's about those early wins. This is why everyone needs to participate in the betting early on to not fall behind!

...hehehe...
Pay more attention to detail.
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Goodspeed »

Well, people have certainly come back from nothing to win the event before. Especially in the later rounds people often throw a lot of points in the mix, and the wins tend to be huge.
User avatar
New Zealand zoom
Gendarme
Posts: 9314
Joined: Apr 26, 2015
ESO: Funnu
Location: New_Sweland

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by zoom »

It's about early wins and donations, in my experience.

Have there been any changes to the rules?
User avatar
Germany japanesegeneral
Lancer
Posts: 644
Joined: Mar 4, 2015
ESO: JapaneseGeneral
Location: Germany

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by japanesegeneral »

Has someone done an elo based empiric expected value yet? Might be fun to just bet based on data from past tournaments.

#iloveempiricstudies
6 petards a day keep the doctor away.
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Goodspeed »

@QueenOfdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets
User avatar
Germany QueenOfdestiny
Retired Contributor
Posts: 2139
Joined: Aug 9, 2016
ESO: QueenOfdestiny

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by QueenOfdestiny »

Goodspeed wrote:@QueenOfdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that :unsure:
shit juice :hmm:
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Goodspeed »

queenofdestiny wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:@QueenOfdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that :unsure:
Almost 2-0 though. Good try
User avatar
Sweden Gendarme
Gendarme
Donator 03
Posts: 5132
Joined: Sep 11, 2016
ESO: Gendarme

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Gendarme »

queenofdestiny wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:@QueenOfdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that :unsure:
It is a standard rule in betting. If you were going to win 2-0 but you had bet on yourself 2-1 it would give you reasons to intentionally throw the second game to win money. This has been a problem in professional sports before (and perhaps still is) and is never allowed.
Pay more attention to detail.
User avatar
United States of America Cometk
Retired Contributor
Posts: 7257
Joined: Feb 15, 2015
Location: California

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Cometk »

fuck this gay earth
Image
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Goodspeed »

japanesegeneral wrote:Has someone done an elo based empiric expected value yet? Might be fun to just bet based on data from past tournaments.

#iloveempiricstudies
I don't think there's enough data to do it based on past tournaments, but one could certainly do it based on elo. Problem would be that elo is often inaccurate because people are inactive or play mostly unrated games.
User avatar
New Zealand zoom
Gendarme
Posts: 9314
Joined: Apr 26, 2015
ESO: Funnu
Location: New_Sweland

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by zoom »

Cometk wrote:fuck this gay earth
Please don't use that word. That word is hurtful.
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Goodspeed »

The first results are in. QueenOfdestiny got pretty close to sweeping deadrising78, which would've been bad news for a lot of people and very good news for some (most notably @Kaiserklein). But deadrising ended up winning 2-1, which still wasn't the most expected result but certainly less exciting. @blackwidow takes home the biggest win, 2324 points, and is our first man to beat. The second result, bwinner1 2-0 purple_squid, was expected and therefore unimpactful, although betting legend @zoom did manage to throw away 1350 points there.

Standings

The finished matches have been replaced by two new ones. Both are scheduled to be played this Wednesday evening. Be sure to get your bets in on time!
Major_Dark vs Templar_
jesus3 vs Tedere12


GL!

[spoiler=Tags]@XeeleeFlower
@Goodspeed
@Gendarme
@Aykin Haraka
@Cometk
@gibson
@_NiceKING_
@aqwer
@Vinyanyérë
@tedere12
@aligator92
@momuuu
@j_t_kirk
@spanky4ever
@Jerimuno
@Runtius
@Googol
@WickedCossack
@Garja
@EAGLEMUT
@rsy
@DaRkNiTe1698
@n0el
@Gichtenlord
@Lukas_L99
@HUMMAN
@Hawk_Girl
@MCJim
@Peshmerga12
@zoom
@JakeyBoyTH
@bwinner
@QueenOfdestiny
@Timba
@yurashic
@kami_ryu
@mohammednihal96
@deleted_user2
@godzillaking
@gh0st
@ssaraf
@japanesegeneral
@yemshi
@musketeer925
@Victor_swe
@guyshir
@lordraphael
Steakgrillé wrote:.

@macacoalbino
@dicktator_
@Hazza54321
@giveuanxiety
@_LeGiT
@Kaiserklein
@lemmings121
@thakronickid420
@eulergauss
@KINGofOsmane
@jorisiv
@milku3459
@blackwidow
@JJS
@roiarthurbis
@dave_12
@SoldieR
@subhanshu
@oceanic
@pecelot
@sebnan12
@bobabu
@Mitoe
@Jaeger
@BrookG
@benj89
@rickytickitembo
@AraGun
@PaInCaKe97
@Eery
@ZertoN
Für great Faulo wrote:.

@thebritish
@Interjection[/spoiler]
France Kaiserklein
Pro Player
Posts: 10278
Joined: Jun 6, 2015
Location: Paris
GameRanger ID: 5529322

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

  • Quote

Post by Kaiserklein »

Just give queen control groups, and I win the betting event
Image
Image
Image
LoOk_tOm wrote:I have something in particular against Kaisar (GERMANY NOOB mercenary LAMME FOREVER) And the other people (noobs) like suck kaiser ... just this ..
User avatar
Poland pecelot
Retired Contributor
Donator 03
Posts: 10459
Joined: Mar 25, 2015
ESO: Pezet

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by pecelot »

I would like to donate 499 points to the Comet, k?
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Goodspeed »

Done. @Cometk
Australia Hazza54321
Pro Player
Winter Champion 2020 x2Donator 01
Posts: 8049
Joined: May 4, 2015
ESO: PrinceofBabu

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Hazza54321 »

can you remove my tag, im not in it :p
User avatar
United States of America Cometk
Retired Contributor
Posts: 7257
Joined: Feb 15, 2015
Location: California

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Cometk »

pecelot wrote:I would like to donate 499 points to the Comet, k?
y̵̧͎̱͐͛̓̄̈́o̸̥͉̩̦̊̅̑͝͝ų̵̩͗r̸̦̈́̀̽ ̴̜̭̮̲̤̈́͒̀̊͐f̶̛̖̪̳̫͕͐̈̔͝o̵̭̖̪̅́ḷ̸̨̧̍̋̈́̽͜͝l̶̝̪̈́̆͋͝y̸͔̝͙͒ ̴̡̫̦̍͘w̶̞̤̼̉̈̎̚͝į̶̮̦̺͍͂́͋͒̕l̵̟̹̠̆l̵͕̈́͒ ̴͖̀̿͒͆̍b̷̮̩̻̟̋̄̓ę̵̝̺̲͔̈́ ̵͙̞̤̣͂͒̓̀͝y̷͈̰̻͘o̴̡̮̦̟͋̾̚u̴̘͑̓̈́r̵͇̩̲̕ ̶͖̟̪̅̉͜ṳ̷̱͚͈͙̈́̋̍̕n̴̠̙͈̰̣̐̇̓d̵̨͔̈̒͋ơ̶͕͕̜̼̿̊̂ͅị̸̰͑n̸̟̍̽͜g̵̺̀̓̏̍͐
Image
User avatar
United States of America musketeer925
Retired Contributor
Donator 01
Posts: 2483
Joined: Mar 28, 2015
ESO: musketeer925

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by musketeer925 »

Might be of interest to betters:

viewtopic.php?f=28&t=3884&p=269939#p269939

Also, @Goodspeed do you mind if I move this thread (as well as the signups) to the discussion section for the tournament?
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by Goodspeed »

That's fine with me. The sign ups I always post in general for visibility, but that's not important anymore now.
User avatar
Germany japanesegeneral
Lancer
Posts: 644
Joined: Mar 4, 2015
ESO: JapaneseGeneral
Location: Germany

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by japanesegeneral »

@tedere12 please team up with me in the betting event let Jesus win the series 2-0.
Attachments
odds op.PNG
6 petards a day keep the doctor away.
No Flag tedere12
Jaeger
Posts: 3449
Joined: Jun 8, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

Post by tedere12 »

lol
User avatar
Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 13002
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

  • Quote

Post by Goodspeed »

@blackwidow's reign was as short-lived as they come. He was stomped from his throne by none other than @aqwer, who is no stranger to winning points this event. It took him only 4 matches to break 10000, which is record-breaking speed. Well done!
He's still in first, but did drop some points and currently sits at 9404. Lurking in his shadow is @musketeer925, on 8160 points, and looking at this kid's bets he's only got one direction to go: up. With 5 matches played, the first consistency scores are showing on the standings sheet (column F) and musketeer925 is the only one boasting that sought-after flawless record. Clearly, this is a man we need to keep an eye on.

We have a bunch of matches still to go this round. Good thing we had 2 weeks for this one. Bets have been opened for another 3 matches. It looks like all will be played in the weekend.
_NT_sven vs ottolol
JorisIV vs GiBthedurrty
KingRichardIIII vs Hidalgito


May the betting Gods favour ye!

[spoiler=Tags]@XeeleeFlower is sexy
@Goodspeed
@Gendarme
@Aykin Haraka
@Cometk
@gibson
@_NiceKING_
@aqwer
@Vinyanyérë
@tedere12
@aligator92
@momuuu
@j_t_kirk
@spanky4ever
@Jerimuno
@Runtius
@Googol
@WickedCossack
@Garja
@EAGLEMUT
@rsy
@DaRkNiTe1698
@n0el
@Gichtenlord
@Lukas_L99
@HUMMAN
@Hawk_Girl
@MCJim
@Peshmerga12
@zoom
@JakeyBoyTH
@bwinner
@QueenOfdestiny
@Timba
@yurashic
@kami_ryu
@mohammednihal96
@deleted_user2
@godzillaking
@gh0st
@ssaraf
@japanesegeneral
@yemshi
@musketeer925
@Victor_swe
@guyshir
@lordraphael
Steakgrillé wrote:.

@macacoalbino
@dicktator_
@giveuanxiety
@_LeGiT
@Kaiserklein
@lemmings121
@thakronickid420
@eulergauss
@KINGofOsmane
@jorisiv
@milku3459
@blackwidow
@JJS
@roiarthurbis
@dave_12
@SoldieR
@subhanshu
@oceanic
@pecelot
@sebnan12
@bobabu
@Mitoe
@Jaeger
@BrookG
@benj89
@rickytickitembo
@AraGun
@PaInCaKe97
@Eery
@ZertoN
Für great Faulo wrote:.

@thebritish
@Interjection
@Wout
@cG_CuRe
@MaJoOorchEf_GaZa[/spoiler]
User avatar
United States of America musketeer925
Retired Contributor
Donator 01
Posts: 2483
Joined: Mar 28, 2015
ESO: musketeer925

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

  • Quote

Post by musketeer925 »

It may be my first time, but I'm no stranger to statistics. Watch out, @aqwer.
User avatar
Sweden Gendarme
Gendarme
Donator 03
Posts: 5132
Joined: Sep 11, 2016
ESO: Gendarme

Re: Autumn 2017 Betting discussion thread

  • Quote

Post by Gendarme »

> be me
> be unlucky first rounds
> lose all points but 147
> end up winning betting event nonetheless
> mfw
Pay more attention to detail.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

Which top 10 players do you wish to see listed?

All-time

Active last two weeks

Active last month

Supremacy

Treaty

Official

ESOC Patch

Treaty Patch

1v1 Elo

2v2 Elo

3v3 Elo

Power Rating

Which streams do you wish to see listed?

Twitch

Age of Empires III

Age of Empires IV