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Finland somppukunkku
Howdah
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Posts: 1461

26 Nov 2017, 14:17

sebnan12 wrote:its a shame that u pace someones win down by saying his opponent didnt give his best lol..thats very motivating! not!! how lame is that. so when real madrid loses vs a worse team they didnt give their best and bettings from everyone get reverted.. how big of a joke is that. if u put a game on ur betting list u gotta psy out everyone. i can fully understand @aqwer .
such a shame really..

the point is that kingrichard lost on purpose

Pr 28 doesn't seriously know what to do with 7K unspent resources in mid fortress? that's hilarious. He had like 5 minutes he could have clicked age up with the stack. And he is seriously putting 30 vills on one animal with 5k food stack when there's a 5k gold mine next to it?
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Posts: 5338

26 Nov 2017, 14:31

sebnan12 wrote:its a shame that u pace someones win down by saying his opponent didnt give his best lol..thats very motivating! not!! how lame is that. so when real madrid loses vs a worse team they didnt give their best and bettings from everyone get reverted.. how big of a joke is that. if u put a game on ur betting list u gotta pay out everyone. i can fully understand @aqwer .
such a shame really..
People lose against worse players all the time, that has never caused me to cancel bets on a series. What has caused it is reasonable doubt about a player's efforts to win the series, which there was this time. If a football team loses to a worse team that's not a sign they didn't give it their best. What would be a sign is if half their players sat around on the field for the whole match drinking beer and flipping off the crowd. Would you say it's fair to count the bets, then, to all of the people who bet on that team?
It wasn't an easy decision. Neither situation was ideal.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
Tuvalu gibson
Gendarme
Posts: 6241
Location: USA

26 Nov 2017, 15:10

While its not completely clear that he lost on purpose, it is completely clear that he didn't try.
I kissed a girl and I liked it
The taste of her cherry chap stick
I kissed a girl just to try it
I hope my boyfriend don't mind it
It felt so wrong, it felt so right
Don't mean I'm in love tonight
I kissed a girl and I liked it
I liked it
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Peru Hidddy_
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ESO: Hidalgito
Location: Miami, Florida, USA

26 Nov 2017, 15:15

How did he lose on purpose if he went to defend raids and fight my armies? Mismacro and not picking Russia doesn't mean he wasn't trying. He didn't have a good chance for Russians and I've beat them before in the past with ease. tbh I played awful seeing as how I didn't have a computer for close to two weeks until Friday. We were both playing sloppy since we were both on foreign computers.
Goodspeed wrote:
sebnan12 wrote:its a shame that u pace someones win down by saying his opponent didnt give his best lol..thats very motivating! not!! how lame is that. so when real madrid loses vs a worse team they didnt give their best and bettings from everyone get reverted.. how big of a joke is that. if u put a game on ur betting list u gotta pay out everyone. i can fully understand @aqwer .
such a shame really..
People lose against worse players all the time, that has never caused me to cancel bets on a series. What has caused it is reasonable doubt about a player's efforts to win the series, which there was this time. If a football team loses to a worse team that's not a sign they didn't give it their best. What would be a sign is if half their players sat around on the field for the whole match drinking beer and flipping off the crowd. Would you say it's fair to count the bets, then, to all of the people who bet on that team?
It wasn't an easy decision. Neither situation was ideal.

You say reasonable doubt yet admit to me that the people telling you these doubts don't know anything about Richard. Is it too much to say you are just more inclined to cancel cause it would ruin the event/your points?
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Finland somppukunkku
Howdah
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Posts: 1461

26 Nov 2017, 15:22

Mismacro = 6k food and staying III, still keeping 30 vills on food.
Plz...Pr limit was 15. Even a sergeant wouldn't be so silly
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Peru Hidddy_
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ESO: Hidalgito
Location: Miami, Florida, USA

26 Nov 2017, 15:29

somppukunkku wrote:Mismacro = 6k food and staying III, still keeping 30 vills on food.
Plz...Pr limit was 15. Even a sergeant wouldn't be so silly

We were fighting the whole time in the Dutch game so he didn't remacro and he only plays Russia. Everyone says he is an ms or sergeant with all other civs since he only knows Russia (food mostly) macro or Ottos (no vil cost macro). It's obvious he can't macro well since he shipped 1000w in g1 and tried to spam pikes by just putting vils on food + 1000w and then not realizing the wood would run out he stacked tons of food
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

26 Nov 2017, 15:30

Fellow collections of atoms who by a miracle of nature achieved enough understanding of reality to participate in a betting event,

Despite this being a round where the expected results tended to happen, there has been quite a change in the betting standings. Previous glorious leader @aqwer finds himself left with 2000 points, having been on 10k not 5 matches ago. Understandably, a strategy of risky betting does not pay off when there are no upsets. Sadly, the only match where his strategy would have paid off was cancelled. He deserves our sympathy, and perhaps a donation or two if his points happen to run out in the future. They may not, however, because betting on high odds has always proven a worthwhile strategy in the past. Just ask @zoom, who by the way has lost all of his points for the third time already this event. Classic.

We are looking at a top 10 with record-high consistency scores. The current man to beat, @gh0st, sits at 11346 having won points in a whopping 86% of the matches he bet in which is an impressive record. No less impressive is @musketeer925, a first-timer showing potential to go all the way, sitting on just over 10k with 78% of bets won. In third is @bwinner1, sitting at 9k and 83%. With our top betters as consistent as this, it's likely they will continue to win points and extend their lead little by little. One question is which of them does it slightly better than the others? Another question is who will win the big bucks when the upsets inevitably start to happen? History has shown that even a juicy 10000 point lead can turn to ash in one's mouth very quickly.

Notable indeed is @godzillaking. He has pulled something off that I haven't seen before in the history of betting. He's sitting in 6th place, on 5980 points, winning 100% (5 out of 5) of his bets. Nothing special you might say at first glance. What's special is that he did this having bet on only one result in each match, and that result happened every time. The no-brainer: whatever he bets on, all in on it.

Another thing I haven't seen before is the strategy of @Wout, winner of AoEO's betting event. Clearly, this kid is good with numbers. His bets are formulas, and they change when the odds change. This way he has basically guaranteed a flawless record, because due to inflation he will always win points this way. Unsurprisingly he's sitting at 100% consistency, for now being the only other better to achieve this besides godzillaking. The problem with his strategy, however, is that while he may be guaranteed to win points every match, others will win more. Who knows, in later rounds he may start betting the upsets and shove into first place.

All in all this betting event is shaping up to be very interesting. Already it is different from any previous one, with record-high consistency and some interesting anomalies. No doubt, the round of 64 will cause some changes in the top 5. Defending the throne is gh0st, and he is probably sweating his balls off.

Records after the round of 96
Most points won in a single match: aqwer (Templar_ 2-1 Major_Dark) - 6483 points
Most unexpected result: Templar_ 2-1 Major_Dark - odds 9.17
Most points bet on a single match: JorisIV vs GiBthedurrty - 40830 points
Most points bet (total): aqwer - 18130 points
Most consistent better: Wout - 100% (6/6)

Bets for the round of 64 will be opened when more is known about the schedule. You will be tagged in a post when that happens. Alternatively simply keep an eye on your personal sheet.

GL HF

Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Czech Republic EAGLEMUT
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26 Nov 2017, 15:42

Hidddy_ wrote:You say reasonable doubt yet admit to me that the people telling you these doubts don't know anything about Richard.
Are you saying Richard doesn't know anything about Richard? :hmm:
Goodspeed noted here that Richard himself basically told him that he wasn't trying..
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Peru Hidddy_
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Posts: 171
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Location: Miami, Florida, USA

26 Nov 2017, 15:46

EAGLEMUT wrote:
Hidddy_ wrote:You say reasonable doubt yet admit to me that the people telling you these doubts don't know anything about Richard.
Are you saying Richard doesn't know anything about Richard? :hmm:
Goodspeed noted here that Richard himself basically told him that he wasn't trying..

GS told me after the match that the chat was motivating him to cancel the match and calling rich a thrower before speaking to him. Imo he was fishing for an excuse to cancel the bets cause then he'd lose. He took motivation from the chat and then went out to fish an excuse from someone who had just lost 2-0 on stream...weak moment. And who wouldn't say they weren't trying when hey just lost to a "2nd lt"
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Posts: 5338

26 Nov 2017, 15:51

Hidddy_ wrote:
EAGLEMUT wrote:
Hidddy_ wrote:You say reasonable doubt yet admit to me that the people telling you these doubts don't know anything about Richard.
Are you saying Richard doesn't know anything about Richard? :hmm:
Goodspeed noted here that Richard himself basically told him that he wasn't trying..

GS told me after the match that the chat was motivating him to cancel the match
I never said anything of the sort.

You deserved to win, I don't see anyone saying you didn't. It's just that when there is reasonable doubt I err on the side of caution. Honestly the fact that he was forced to play on a computer that he had never played on before and had no time to practice on is enough reason to cancel the betting by itself.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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New Zealand zoom
Gendarme
Posts: 6780
ESO: Funnu
Location: Ramadanistan

26 Nov 2017, 17:08

sebnan12 wrote:its a shame that u pace someones win down by saying his opponent didnt give his best lol..thats very motivating! not!! how lame is that. so when real madrid loses vs a worse team they didnt give their best and bettings from everyone get reverted.. how big of a joke is that. if u put a game on ur betting list u gotta pay out everyone. i can fully understand @aqwer .
such a shame really..
I agree, unless there is an estimated 99.6% chance a player wasn't ever intent on winning. Considering this is the case here, I think voiding all bets is the reasonable thing to do, although I would understand letting bets stand, as well. It's a difficult decision to make.

I trust you realize yourself how utterly nonsensical your comparison is.
sudmakmak wrote:This patch Keshik don't have buff anti cavalry = noob patch2.0
and don't have nerf hard japan = noob patch2.0
because all more noob player at this patch = noob logic.
or they maybe have boyfriend.(japanese boyfriend fuck your ass them)
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New Zealand zoom
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Posts: 6780
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26 Nov 2017, 17:15

Hiddy, I'm not sure if you're trolling, but if you can't see that your opponent wasn't trying his best to win, then you are more clueless than actual believers of organized religion.
sudmakmak wrote:This patch Keshik don't have buff anti cavalry = noob patch2.0
and don't have nerf hard japan = noob patch2.0
because all more noob player at this patch = noob logic.
or they maybe have boyfriend.(japanese boyfriend fuck your ass them)
United States of America godzillaking
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26 Nov 2017, 17:21

Technically I did bet on Richard to win. So it being cancelled saved my betting %.
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Singapore milku3459
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ESO: jamescheif100
Location: in your base, killing your dudes

26 Nov 2017, 17:48

Lol i've not lost any points on a match so far, but I've been profiting to the tune of 20 and 12 points lately.

Maybe I need to change strategy
1/5/17
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Switzerland sebnan12
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Posts: 1147
ESO: Mongobillione
Location: Switzerland

26 Nov 2017, 18:04

zoom wrote:
sebnan12 wrote:its a shame that u pace someones win down by saying his opponent didnt give his best lol..thats very motivating! not!! how lame is that. so when real madrid loses vs a worse team they didnt give their best and bettings from everyone get reverted.. how big of a joke is that. if u put a game on ur betting list u gotta pay out everyone. i can fully understand @aqwer .
such a shame really..
I agree, unless there is an estimated 99.6% chance a player wasn't ever intent on winning. Considering this is the case here, I think voiding all bets is the reasonable thing to do, although I would understand letting bets stand, as well. It's a difficult decision to make.

I trust you realize yourself how utterly nonsensical your comparison is.

while the comparison isnt good at all, my point still is. there is a line between a manipulated match, which has to be a bet canceler, and a bad played match, which definitely doesnt need any actions taken on it. i watched the replays of the matches. while its clear richard did suck (sry for the harsh words), its still not a fair decision to cancel an event based on the outcome of the result, when there wasnt an obvious manipulation. anyways goodspeed is the host and has the right to do so. means for me the case is closed. i just wanna stand behind my point.
BAE
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 5338

26 Nov 2017, 19:10

Did you read my posts?
Bad play was not the reason.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Something home flower 43
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
Tuvalu gibson
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Posts: 6241
Location: USA

26 Nov 2017, 19:53

Lack of effort is a good reason to cancel. There clearly was lack of effort here, so why is anyone upset?
I kissed a girl and I liked it
The taste of her cherry chap stick
I kissed a girl just to try it
I hope my boyfriend don't mind it
It felt so wrong, it felt so right
Don't mean I'm in love tonight
I kissed a girl and I liked it
I liked it
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Sweden Gendarme
ESOC Dev Team
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Posts: 2359
ESO: Gendarme

26 Nov 2017, 19:58

gibson wrote:so why is anyone upset?
Personal bias of betting on the correct result but not winning.
duck wrote:man it really sucks when you have to agree with gendarme on things
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India gh0st
Lancer
Posts: 537
ESO: gh0st007
Location: India

26 Nov 2017, 20:18

milku3459 wrote:Lol i've not lost any points on a match so far, but I've been profiting to the tune of 20 and 12 points lately.

Maybe I need to change strategy

You are betting on every fucking outcome ffs
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New Zealand zoom
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Posts: 6780
ESO: Funnu
Location: Ramadanistan

26 Nov 2017, 20:36

sebnan12 wrote:
zoom wrote:
sebnan12 wrote:its a shame that u pace someones win down by saying his opponent didnt give his best lol..thats very motivating! not!! how lame is that. so when real madrid loses vs a worse team they didnt give their best and bettings from everyone get reverted.. how big of a joke is that. if u put a game on ur betting list u gotta pay out everyone. i can fully understand @aqwer .
such a shame really..
I agree, unless there is an estimated 99.6% chance a player wasn't ever intent on winning. Considering this is the case here, I think voiding all bets is the reasonable thing to do, although I would understand letting bets stand, as well. It's a difficult decision to make.

I trust you realize yourself how utterly nonsensical your comparison is.

while the comparison isnt good at all, my point still is. there is a line between a manipulated match, which has to be a bet canceler, and a bad played match, which definitely doesnt need any actions taken on it. i watched the replays of the matches. while its clear richard did suck (sry for the harsh words), its still not a fair decision to cancel an event based on the outcome of the result, when there wasnt an obvious manipulation. anyways goodspeed is the host and has the right to do so. means for me the case is closed. i just wanna stand behind my point.
I agree with your point; I just consider it clear beyond reasonable doubt that the player wasn't trying to win, and in fact made an effort not to – it's the lack of effort that bothers me, regardless of performance or intent, respectively. I would have accepted either decision, but in this particular case I would have done what Goodspeed did, because of player knowledge, detailed player performance and player comments.
sudmakmak wrote:This patch Keshik don't have buff anti cavalry = noob patch2.0
and don't have nerf hard japan = noob patch2.0
because all more noob player at this patch = noob logic.
or they maybe have boyfriend.(japanese boyfriend fuck your ass them)
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Switzerland sebnan12
Howdah
Posts: 1147
ESO: Mongobillione
Location: Switzerland

26 Nov 2017, 21:29

Gendarme wrote:
gibson wrote:so why is anyone upset?
Personal bias of betting on the correct result but not winning.

nope. i didnt even bet on that match. no im feeling bad for hiddy and aqwer. besides i dont agree with gs decision. however, i accept it.
gibson wrote:Lack of effort is a good reason to cancel. There clearly was lack of effort here, so why is anyone upset?

besides i dont agree that lack of effort is a good reason, its wild speculations that there was lack of effort. a player saying: ''i wasnt trying'', confirms nothing for me.

BAE


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India guyshir
Musketeer
Posts: 66
ESO: guyshir
Location: Chicago

26 Nov 2017, 23:41

I was not trying to win at casino too, but when I lost they didn't cancel my bet.

I don't get the logic of canceling bets over not trying. If you think a player was suppose to win 90% and didn't because of any reason, and bidders lost points it is acceptable and a part of life. Accept it and move on.

I feel for bidders who bid for lower probability or for a higher multiplier....you deserve to win.

Nonetheless, I accept Goodspeed's decision
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United States of America n0el
ESOC Business Team
Donator 01
Posts: 2000
ESO: n0eL

27 Nov 2017, 01:12

It is very simple. Gambling (odds) assumes that the teams or players are trying their best to win. If they aren't, then it shouldn't be able to be bet because the odds aren't legitimate.
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Singapore milku3459
Howdah
Posts: 1098
ESO: jamescheif100
Location: in your base, killing your dudes

27 Nov 2017, 03:46

Was H2o vs Raphael counted?
1/5/17
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Switzerland sebnan12
Howdah
Posts: 1147
ESO: Mongobillione
Location: Switzerland

27 Nov 2017, 09:37

n0el wrote:It is very simple. Gambling (odds) assumes that the teams or players are trying their best to win. If they aren't, then it shouldn't be able to be bet because the odds aren't legitimate.

no thats not true. gambling is just not that simple. the reasons:"players not trying their best" or "players lacking effort", are just no reasons to cancel a bet at all (especially when theres no official confirmation except that the player who lost said:"i wasnt trying"). a good reason would be: "players initially manipulated the bet, if for their own goods or for someone else", or "players agreed on the outcome before hand"(which kinda goes under manipulation aswell).

BAE


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