ESOCommunity

Hello,

Feel free to discuss anything related to betting here. Further betting updates will be posted in this thread, and all participants will be tagged in them. So if you're a better, keep an eye on your notifications in the top right.

My strategy: Betting on the underdogs, making some big wins here and there but eventually losing it all like I always do

Sign ups & rules: viewtopic.php?f=19&t=12628

You snowball pretty easily, so it's about those early wins. This is why everyone needs to participate in the betting early on to not fall behind!

...hehehe...

Well, people have certainly come back from nothing to win the event before. Especially in the later rounds people often throw a lot of points in the mix, and the wins tend to be huge.

It's about early wins and donations, in my experience.

Have there been any changes to the rules?

Has someone done an elo based empiric expected value yet? Might be fun to just bet based on data from past tournaments.

#iloveempiricstudies

@QueenOfdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

Goodspeed wrote:@QueenOfdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that

queenofdestiny wrote:

Goodspeed wrote:@QueenOfdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that

Almost 2-0 though. Good try

queenofdestiny wrote:

Goodspeed wrote:@QueenOfdestiny You can't bet on your own matches except on you winning and you winning 2-0. I undid your other bets

i didnt know that

It is a standard rule in betting. If you were going to win 2-0 but you had bet on yourself 2-1 it would give you reasons to intentionally throw the second game to win money. This has been a problem in professional sports before (and perhaps still is) and is never allowed.

fuck this gay earth

japanesegeneral wrote:Has someone done an elo based empiric expected value yet? Might be fun to just bet based on data from past tournaments.

#iloveempiricstudies

I don't think there's enough data to do it based on past tournaments, but one could certainly do it based on elo. Problem would be that elo is often inaccurate because people are inactive or play mostly unrated games.

Cometk wrote:fuck this gay earth

Please don't use that word. That word is hurtful.

The first results are in. QueenOfdestiny got pretty close to sweeping deadrising78, which would've been bad news for a lot of people and very good news for some (most notably @Kaiserklein). But deadrising ended up winning 2-1, which still wasn't the most expected result but certainly less exciting. @blackwidow takes home the biggest win, 2324 points, and is our first man to beat. The second result, bwinner1 2-0 purple_squid, was expected and therefore unimpactful, although betting legend @zoom did manage to throw away 1350 points there.

Standings

The finished matches have been replaced by two new ones. Both are scheduled to be played this Wednesday evening. Be sure to get your bets in on time!
Major_Dark vs Templar_
jesus3 vs Tedere12

GL!

[spoiler=Tags]@XeeleeFlower
@Goodspeed
@Gendarme
@Aykin Haraka
@Cometk
@gibson
@_NiceKING_
@aqwer
@Vinyanyérë
@tedere12
@aligator92
@momuuu
@j_t_kirk
@spanky4ever
@Jerimuno
@Runtius
@Googol
@WickedCossack
@Garja
@EAGLEMUT
@rsy
@DaRkNiTe1698
@n0el
@Gichtenlord
@Lukas_L99
@HUMMAN
@Hawk_Girl
@MCJim
@Peshmerga12
@zoom
@JakeyBoyTH
@bwinner
@QueenOfdestiny
@Timba
@yurashic
@kami_ryu
@mohammednihal96
@deleted_user2
@godzillaking
@gh0st
@ssaraf
@japanesegeneral
@yemshi
@musketeer925
@Victor_swe
@guyshir
@lordraphael

Steakgrillé wrote:.

@macacoalbino
@dicktator_
@Hazza54321
@giveuanxiety
@_LeGiT
@Kaiserklein
@lemmings121
@thakronickid420
@eulergauss
@KINGofOsmane
@jorisiv
@milku3459
@blackwidow
@JJS
@roiarthurbis
@dave_12
@SoldieR
@subhanshu
@oceanic
@pecelot
@sebnan12
@bobabu
@Mitoe
@Jaeger
@BrookG
@benj89
@rickytickitembo
@AraGun
@PaInCaKe97
@Eery
@ZertoN

Für great Faulo wrote:.

@thebritish
@Interjection[/spoiler]

Just give queen control groups, and I win the betting event

I would like to donate 499 points to the Comet, k?

Done. @Cometk

can you remove my tag, im not in it :p

pecelot wrote:I would like to donate 499 points to the Comet, k?

y̵̧͎̱͐͛̓̄̈́o̸̥͉̩̦̊̅̑͝͝ų̵̩͗r̸̦̈́̀̽ ̴̜̭̮̲̤̈́͒̀̊͐f̶̛̖̪̳̫͕͐̈̔͝o̵̭̖̪̅́ḷ̸̨̧̍̋̈́̽͜͝l̶̝̪̈́̆͋͝y̸͔̝͙͒ ̴̡̫̦̍͘w̶̞̤̼̉̈̎̚͝į̶̮̦̺͍͂́͋͒̕l̵̟̹̠̆l̵͕̈́͒ ̴͖̀̿͒͆̍b̷̮̩̻̟̋̄̓ę̵̝̺̲͔̈́ ̵͙̞̤̣͂͒̓̀͝y̷͈̰̻͘o̴̡̮̦̟͋̾̚u̴̘͑̓̈́r̵͇̩̲̕ ̶͖̟̪̅̉͜ṳ̷̱͚͈͙̈́̋̍̕n̴̠̙͈̰̣̐̇̓d̵̨͔̈̒͋ơ̶͕͕̜̼̿̊̂ͅị̸̰͑n̸̟̍̽͜g̵̺̀̓̏̍͐

Might be of interest to betters:

viewtopic.php?f=28&t=3884&p=269939#p269939

Also, @Goodspeed do you mind if I move this thread (as well as the signups) to the discussion section for the tournament?

That's fine with me. The sign ups I always post in general for visibility, but that's not important anymore now.

@tedere12 please team up with me in the betting event let Jesus win the series 2-0.

lol

@blackwidow's reign was as short-lived as they come. He was stomped from his throne by none other than @aqwer, who is no stranger to winning points this event. It took him only 4 matches to break 10000, which is record-breaking speed. Well done!
He's still in first, but did drop some points and currently sits at 9404. Lurking in his shadow is @musketeer925, on 8160 points, and looking at this kid's bets he's only got one direction to go: up. With 5 matches played, the first consistency scores are showing on the standings sheet (column F) and musketeer925 is the only one boasting that sought-after flawless record. Clearly, this is a man we need to keep an eye on.

We have a bunch of matches still to go this round. Good thing we had 2 weeks for this one. Bets have been opened for another 3 matches. It looks like all will be played in the weekend.
_NT_sven vs ottolol
JorisIV vs GiBthedurrty
KingRichardIIII vs Hidalgito

May the betting Gods favour ye!

[spoiler=Tags]@XeeleeFlower is sexy
@Goodspeed
@Gendarme
@Aykin Haraka
@Cometk
@gibson
@_NiceKING_
@aqwer
@Vinyanyérë
@tedere12
@aligator92
@momuuu
@j_t_kirk
@spanky4ever
@Jerimuno
@Runtius
@Googol
@WickedCossack
@Garja
@EAGLEMUT
@rsy
@DaRkNiTe1698
@n0el
@Gichtenlord
@Lukas_L99
@HUMMAN
@Hawk_Girl
@MCJim
@Peshmerga12
@zoom
@JakeyBoyTH
@bwinner
@QueenOfdestiny
@Timba
@yurashic
@kami_ryu
@mohammednihal96
@deleted_user2
@godzillaking
@gh0st
@ssaraf
@japanesegeneral
@yemshi
@musketeer925
@Victor_swe
@guyshir
@lordraphael

Steakgrillé wrote:.

@macacoalbino
@dicktator_
@giveuanxiety
@_LeGiT
@Kaiserklein
@lemmings121
@thakronickid420
@eulergauss
@KINGofOsmane
@jorisiv
@milku3459
@blackwidow
@JJS
@roiarthurbis
@dave_12
@SoldieR
@subhanshu
@oceanic
@pecelot
@sebnan12
@bobabu
@Mitoe
@Jaeger
@BrookG
@benj89
@rickytickitembo
@AraGun
@PaInCaKe97
@Eery
@ZertoN

Für great Faulo wrote:.

@thebritish
@Interjection
@Wout
@cG_CuRe
@MaJoOorchEf_GaZa[/spoiler]

It may be my first time, but I'm no stranger to statistics. Watch out, @aqwer.