How do you decide bets?

[musketeer925]

See poll, I am curious as always. I also would love to see a ranking of priority on those if you care to post.

[Gendarme]

Elo-rating, PR, quantity of recently played games, what everyone else is betting (i.e. odds), and also checking agecommunity stats of recently played games if the decision is a hard one to make.

[musketeer925]

Thanks for the info.

also checking agecommunity stats of recently played games if the decision is a hard one to make.

What stats there do you look at? Game length, etc?

[tedere12]

haha, pretty much all of them. Also judging from the games we've played together, and maybe a random bet with high odds.

[Gendarme]

Thanks for the info.

also checking agecommunity stats of recently played games if the decision is a hard one to make.

What stats there do you look at? Game length, etc?

Not looking for anything specific. Just trying to get an idea of how the game played out so I can be more accurate with my bet. Anything from the number of hussars made in the semi-FF to the number of settlers lost is useful.

[aligator92]

Gut feeling and odds

[bwinner]

I barely bet on a match where I don't know at least one of the players. Then I look for good ods.

[momuuu]

I often base it on how good I think someone is. Ive played most majors and seen most colonels+ play so I have a good judgement generally.
Sometimes I even go on the inside and ask the players themselves. Tbh if Im betting from elo and dont see easy good odds then Im not actually taking the risk.

[momuuu]

Btw I found that looking at their recent games and seeing what sort of players theyre beating gives a good idea of how good a player is. Generally Id look for good benchmark games (ie games against a player whose skill I know rather accurately). That can be much more telling than pr elo nowadays.

[gh0st]

mostly on elo and recent games. Helps alot if you have played the players yourself, as you have a idea who should win. Also a bit of risk/reward, and hedging if you have limited knowledge about players & want to play it safe.

[blackwidow]

Btw I found that looking at their recent games and seeing what sort of players theyre beating gives a good idea of how good a player is. Generally Id look for good benchmark games (ie
games against a player whose skill I know rather accurately). That can be much more telling than pr elo nowadays.

this is what I do, and I also search for the names in the advanced filter hoping that they've already played some matches and see if those are still relevant.

[sebnan12]

the best indicator is the quantity of recent played games if their in same pr range

[Goodspeed]

I used to know most of the players and bet based on where I put their skill at, but nowadays I go mostly by ELO and by what others are betting. I look specifically for bets by people who are themselves active players around the level of the players because they usually are in the best position to judge.

And based on the odds, of course. Sometimes players are vastly over- or underrated by the other betters, or specific results overlooked.

Also, often matches are closer than expected. I always keep that in mind.

[Aykin Haraka]

only names matter