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by Goodspeed
Today, 09:59
Forum: General
Topic: EP Win Rate Statistics
Replies: 108
Views: 2736
Flag: Netherlands

Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Yeah 52% despite -67 ELO is pretty significant.
Why take max elo instead of current elo btw? Current should be more accurate no?
by Goodspeed
Today, 09:03
Forum: General
Topic: EP Win Rate Statistics
Replies: 108
Views: 2736
Flag: Netherlands

Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

The sample size in NWC is still small, but in the case of Brits for example it's 109 games which is not bad. The -72 average elo difference definitely explains the low win rate. Considering +100 ELO means 66% win rate (if the ELO algorithm was implemented correctly) Brit's real win rate would be mor .....

by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 14:16
Forum: General
Topic: Retiring from competitive games
Replies: 15
Views: 609
Flag: Netherlands

Re: Retiring from competitive games

by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 13:13
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Trump, above all else, is obsessed with his public image. Considering pulling out of the ME is popular, he thinks it will help his public image. It's probably as simple as that. Of course pulling out of the ME is not a trivial thing to do, as he has come to understand now I'm sure.
by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 12:39
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

I suppose I disagree with your definition of a vision, then. I mean yes, he cares about his public image and yes he cares about his personal financial interests, but I wouldn't call that a vision.
by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 12:35
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Dolan wrote:You're still thinking in the old ways, expecting him to be a puppet in the hands of a "reasonable" bureaucratic apparatus, like Obama or Bush were.
??
And yes this makes him look like he's just winging it, but I think there is a vision behind this,
Right. Disagree. Trump has been .....
by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 12:28
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

I highly doubt that it's just politics, I think he's just not a very sophisticated person and that letter represents the extent of his mental capacity.
Agree to disagree on that one I guess.
by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 11:31
Forum: General
Topic: EP Win Rate Statistics
Replies: 108
Views: 2736
Flag: Netherlands

Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Nice. If you put those numbers next to the win rates, it becomes much more meaningful. Like if Spain won 50% of their games but the average ELO was 180 higher than their opponent, the civ is probably UP.
But only EPL is too small of a sample I guess.
Also I would take JP elo if possible. EP elo ladder .....

by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 09:38
Forum: General
Topic: EP Win Rate Statistics
Replies: 108
Views: 2736
Flag: Netherlands

Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Ah yeah I guess that works but it does make it a bit confusing for people because the numbers seem arbitrary (since there's a magic formula hidden behind them). If you can easily get the average ELO difference per civ, that would be helpful
by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 09:24
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

The letter was more to show that Trump has no idea what he's doing and saying his decisions are based on a line of reasoning that has any basis in reality or makes any diplomatic sense is probably giving him too much credit already. Did you read it? It could've been written by a 5 year old.
by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 09:16
Forum: General
Topic: EP Win Rate Statistics
Replies: 108
Views: 2736
Flag: Netherlands

Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

bwinner wrote:Ok I did it and here are the result I have obtained :

This was my methode
- civ strength = 0
- for each game of EPL : civ strength change = elo player change for the player playing this (exept I did as if both player were playing with their max elo)
civStrength.JPG


I also join a full PDF wi .....
by Goodspeed
Yesterday, 08:14
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

That's basically his line of reasoning
You don't know that. And I think you're giving him too much credit there.
.....
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 22:52
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Given your response to things you don't agree with, it makes sense that you're optimistic about Bernie's chances. Confirmation bias indeed.
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 22:26
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

@n0el Yeah all of those should drop out except Pete, he still actually has growth potential unlike every other name you mentioned including Bernie. It's just not his year. Warren and him were competing for the same voters and Warren won that battle. .....

by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 21:56
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

What about his last few posts is so disagreeable you can't take it seriously?
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 20:42
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

fightinfrenchman wrote:@iwillspankyou I vote in Republican primaries
Smart
Who did you vote for in 2016?
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 20:21
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Yeah I guess if she runs again she has a chance. With those odds it might be a decent gamble. It does feel like time's running out on that one though.
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 20:05
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Yeah when the media reports something you don't like, it's not true. Classic. From where I'm sitting it's not looking good for him, and I don't get my news from places that are in any way anti-Sanders. Extremely biased in favor of him, if anything.
For the record, betting markets don't like his chanc .....

by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 19:41
Forum: Real-life Discussion
Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary
Replies: 4955
Views: 32200
Flag: Netherlands

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

iwillspankyou wrote:just to rub it in your face, frenshy :ear:
You seem to want to support a winner. Time to eat humble pie, or support Bernie :P
Here comes BERNIE

I don't understand this optimism.. It's not looking good for him at all. Are we following the same primary? .....
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 19:18
Forum: ESOC Civilizations Discussion
Topic: Ottomans Discussion Thread
Replies: 508
Views: 14045
Flag: Netherlands

Re: Ottomans Discussion Thread

zoom wrote:I see some arguing that the unit is too strong, in general; not that it shouldn't counter other ranged infantry. The result of reverting Abuse Range is a weaker unit—against artillery and cavalry even more so than ranged infantry.
This is wrong. Reverting the change will make the unit disp .....
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 16:18
Forum: ESOC Civilizations Discussion
Topic: Ottomans Discussion Thread
Replies: 508
Views: 14045
Flag: Netherlands

Re: Ottomans Discussion Thread

Hazza54321 wrote:Well that was one of my initial points if you cared to put your thinking face on rather than talk condescendingly.
I think they should do more damage to cav and cannons than skirms, yes. Not more than they do currently. No one is even talking about buffing the unit, are they? Certain .....
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 15:49
Forum: ESOC Civilizations Discussion
Topic: Ottomans Discussion Thread
Replies: 508
Views: 14045
Flag: Netherlands

Re: Ottomans Discussion Thread

I don't think they should be buffed if that's what you're asking
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 15:43
Forum: General
Topic: EP Win Rate Statistics
Replies: 108
Views: 2736
Flag: Netherlands

Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

BrookG wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:There are also more opportunities for their opponent to mess up?
Popularity only has an effect on win rate if it's different per skill level.
That's why I mentioned mid too.
Why not high? .....
by Goodspeed
16 Oct 2019, 15:41
Forum: ESOC Civilizations Discussion
Topic: Ottomans Discussion Thread
Replies: 508
Views: 14045
Flag: Netherlands

Re: Ottomans Discussion Thread

Hazza54321 wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:
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