Betting discussion
Betting discussion
Discuss anything related to the betting event here!
My strategy: cheating, because that's the only way to beat Zoi
My strategy: cheating, because that's the only way to beat Zoi
Re: Betting discussion
Have a question regarding the odds. Are they constantly moving depending of bidders?
I'd like to bet on value of the odds. But it doesn't look like it's doable with this system.
I'd like to bet on value of the odds. But it doesn't look like it's doable with this system.
Re: Betting discussion
Yes they are. If you want to bet based on the odds (which is a good idea) it's best to wait a while until they are less dynamic.Hagi wrote:Have a question regarding the odds. Are they constantly moving depending of bidders?
I'd like to bet on value of the odds. But it doesn't look like it's doable with this system.
The way I do it is I place bets on what I think will be the result, then right before a match I check the odds and edit my bets where appropriate.
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- Dragoon
- Posts: 486
- Joined: Feb 16, 2015
Re: Betting discussion
You can also look at the inflation to the points as some options are better than others (for example you should split up you points among the specific options instead of betting on "A wins")
Re: Betting discussion
It's possible to bet in ways where you can bet a little bit on each outcome and adjust things using odds so that you don't lose anything. Gains are minimal though
Re: Betting discussion
I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?
Re: Betting discussion
lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?
Its the payout.
Re: Betting discussion
Yeah I can see why that would be unclear. Added this to the info post:lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?
If the odds for Player A winning are 5.00 (also read as 5:1) that means you get 5 times the amount of points you bet in payout if player A wins. So if you had bet 1000, you would get 5000 points in return which is a 4000 point profit.
Re: Betting discussion
Goodspeed wrote:Yeah I can see why that would be unclear. Added this to the info post:lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?If the odds for Player A winning are 5.00 (also read as 5:1) that means you get 5 times the amount of points you bet in payout if player A wins. So if you had bet 1000, you would get 5000 points in return which is a 4000 point profit.
Ah, so betting on the result with a lower number is essentially betting on the favorite (the one most people think/have bet will win).
Re: Betting discussion
lesllamas wrote:Goodspeed wrote:Yeah I can see why that would be unclear. Added this to the info post:lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?If the odds for Player A winning are 5.00 (also read as 5:1) that means you get 5 times the amount of points you bet in payout if player A wins. So if you had bet 1000, you would get 5000 points in return which is a 4000 point profit.
Ah, so betting on the result with a lower number is essentially betting on the favorite (the one most people think/have bet will win).
Exactly.
Re: Betting discussion
Bart was sppose to win at least 1 god damn game. He let me down so hard.
A little Cocaine never hurt nobody!
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- Jaeger
- Posts: 3680
- Joined: Feb 21, 2015
Re: Betting discussion
As hard as not being addicted to cocaine.
Re: Betting discussion
dayum @lukas vs somppu.
Some people need to read some into game theory. Betting all at 1.07 odds is probably not a wise idea, might not even be smart for h2o vs a 1st lt lol.
Some people need to read some into game theory. Betting all at 1.07 odds is probably not a wise idea, might not even be smart for h2o vs a 1st lt lol.
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- Ninja
- Posts: 13004
- Joined: Apr 28, 2020
Re: Betting discussion
its actually pretty wise. but its just not very profitable lol. problem with these odds are that they aren't nearly as "accurate" as true bookie odds the odds for somppu winning shouldnt have been nearly as close to 1.07. while the odds for h2o winning should probably be at 1.0000000000000000000000000008 but, well never get to that. so if i had a million chips, i'd put them on h2o for 1.08 and cash a fast 80.000
(i actually made a 1000 bucks 2 summers ago by betting on such safe bets in tennis XD then i figured out that if i had spent that same time working, i wouldve made 2000 bucks...)
(i actually made a 1000 bucks 2 summers ago by betting on such safe bets in tennis XD then i figured out that if i had spent that same time working, i wouldve made 2000 bucks...)
Re: Betting discussion
Well yes and no. Statistically speaking it might be a wise choice sometimes, if the bets are extremely safe I guess and, maybe more importantly, you've got a huge stack to bet with. Thing is that anyone should've figured the odds weren't 1.07 for somppu at all. I actually think the large 1k bets on somppu were all made last minute, which didnt draw people into betting more on lukas or so.
I guess the exploit that sometimes the chances that one player wins are so much higher that the betting odds dont reflect that is pretty nice aswell, although you never know if someone shows up in really bad shape (gets ill or injured for example). Which makes it feel like it's taking huge risks for small payouts still. It's kinda like the doubling technique in the casino, where you theoretically always make a profit if you keep doubling your stack on something that pays 2:1. If you lose after betting some amount, bet twice the amount and you'll make some profit. Yet the fact is that you're paying potentially huge amounts of cash to make tiny bits of profit. There's gonna be some day where you have a huge stack bet and run out of money, instantly throwing all your profit away.
I guess the exploit that sometimes the chances that one player wins are so much higher that the betting odds dont reflect that is pretty nice aswell, although you never know if someone shows up in really bad shape (gets ill or injured for example). Which makes it feel like it's taking huge risks for small payouts still. It's kinda like the doubling technique in the casino, where you theoretically always make a profit if you keep doubling your stack on something that pays 2:1. If you lose after betting some amount, bet twice the amount and you'll make some profit. Yet the fact is that you're paying potentially huge amounts of cash to make tiny bits of profit. There's gonna be some day where you have a huge stack bet and run out of money, instantly throwing all your profit away.
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- Ninja
- Posts: 13004
- Joined: Apr 28, 2020
Re: Betting discussion
ye, that would be right if the odds were set by a bookie, but instead the odds reflect the sum of everyones expectations (or wishful thinking). so the reason the odds were at 1.07 is because people thought/expected somppu would win. so you cant really say its not wise to bet on 1.07, because you don't decide what the odds will be individually.
Re: Betting discussion
umeu wrote:ye, that would be right if the odds were set by a bookie, but instead the odds reflect the sum of everyones expectations (or wishful thinking). so the reason the odds were at 1.07 is because people thought/expected somppu would win. so you cant really say its not wise to bet on 1.07, because you don't decide what the odds will be individually.
I guess I'm just very surprised at people betting so much on somppu while this match does not seem like a clear walkover at all. I guess it's just people trying to go all in on the favored one with small but garantueed profits over time, but high risks. I'm happy that the risktakers got punished here haha.
Just look at it: A bet of 500 points on somppu winning would give you 30 points profit. A bet of 1 point on lukas 2-1 would give you 57 points profit. That's just insane really. Why risk 500 points while you get just toss 1 point away for about an equal chance of payout.
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- Ninja
- Posts: 13004
- Joined: Apr 28, 2020
Re: Betting discussion
its quite simple, they thought it was a clear walkover, but as it turns out, they made an error in judgment. its easy to say its a big risk now, but in the beginning it didnt seem that really. that said, with this setup, its never bad to bet a small amound on the unlikely event, as you did and gs did. even if you are betting more on the more likely event.
Re: Betting discussion
to be confident enough to bet on a 1.06 payout on somppu is a very bad appraisal. hardly a worthwhile endeavour.
anyway after this round i'll have ~5k points. in the last betting event i was gifted with points on multiple occasions after i had lost everything. this event if there's anyone in need of points i'd like to be that generous donor. quote me
anyway after this round i'll have ~5k points. in the last betting event i was gifted with points on multiple occasions after i had lost everything. this event if there's anyone in need of points i'd like to be that generous donor. quote me
Re: Betting discussion
Those big safe bets aren't really good in this system, because you'll make a small guaranteed profit, whereas what you want is to strike a home run on the right odds. Only the highest amount of points matters here.
Lol, that's exactly what I did. I had one bet on both the results of Lukas winning.
Just look at it: A bet of 500 points on somppu winning would give you 30 points profit. A bet of 1 point on lukas 2-1 would give you 57 points profit. That's just insane really. Why risk 500 points while you get just toss 1 point away for about an equal chance of payout.
Lol, that's exactly what I did. I had one bet on both the results of Lukas winning.
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- Ninja
- Posts: 13004
- Joined: Apr 28, 2020
Re: Betting discussion
iNcog wrote:Those big safe bets aren't really good in this system, because you'll make a small guaranteed profit, whereas what you want is to strike a home run on the right odds. Only the highest amount of points matters here.Just look at it: A bet of 500 points on somppu winning would give you 30 points profit. A bet of 1 point on lukas 2-1 would give you 57 points profit. That's just insane really. Why risk 500 points while you get just toss 1 point away for about an equal chance of payout.
Lol, that's exactly what I did. I had one bet on both the results of Lukas winning.
Its not exactly how the system works tho. I mean if all suddenly wouldve decided that betting safe sux so they risk it and bet on lukas, then the odds for lukas would plummet to the same small number as it was for somppu...
Re: Betting discussion
Yeah lol, you need to go against the flow if you want to do well here.
the safe bets just don't rake in the dough. but it's probably better to do so early on, just to build up your betting potential
the safe bets just don't rake in the dough. but it's probably better to do so early on, just to build up your betting potential
Re: Betting discussion
Goodspeed wrote:Yeah I can see why that would be unclear. Added this to the info post:lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?If the odds for Player A winning are 5.00 (also read as 5:1) that means you get 5 times the amount of points you bet in payout if player A wins. So if you had bet 1000, you would get 5000 points in return which is a 4000 point profit.
4:1, actually...
Re: Betting discussion
Cometk wrote:to be confident enough to bet on a 1.06 payout on somppu is a very bad appraisal. hardly a worthwhile endeavour.
Yeah, I wanted to bet on somppu, I really did, but the odds were never anywhere near decent. I guess there were some people purely betting based on ELO or just randomly betting on the favorite.
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