Betting discussion

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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Betting discussion

Post by Goodspeed »

Discuss anything related to the betting event here!

My strategy: cheating, because that's the only way to beat Zoi :cry:
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No Flag Hagi
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by Hagi »

Have a question regarding the odds. Are they constantly moving depending of bidders?
I'd like to bet on value of the odds. But it doesn't look like it's doable with this system.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by Goodspeed »

Hagi wrote:Have a question regarding the odds. Are they constantly moving depending of bidders?
I'd like to bet on value of the odds. But it doesn't look like it's doable with this system.
Yes they are. If you want to bet based on the odds (which is a good idea) it's best to wait a while until they are less dynamic.
The way I do it is I place bets on what I think will be the result, then right before a match I check the odds and edit my bets where appropriate.
No Flag purplesquid
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by purplesquid »

You can also look at the inflation to the points as some options are better than others (for example you should split up you points among the specific options instead of betting on "A wins")
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by iNcog »

It's possible to bet in ways where you can bet a little bit on each outcome and adjust things using odds so that you don't lose anything. Gains are minimal though
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/incog_aoe
Garja wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 21:46
I just hope DE is not going to implement all of the EP changes. Right now it is a big clusterfuck.
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United States of America lesllamas
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by lesllamas »

I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?
Netherlands momuuu
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by momuuu »

lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?

Its the payout.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by Goodspeed »

lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?
Yeah I can see why that would be unclear. Added this to the info post:
If the odds for Player A winning are 5.00 (also read as 5:1) that means you get 5 times the amount of points you bet in payout if player A wins. So if you had bet 1000, you would get 5000 points in return which is a 4000 point profit.
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United States of America lesllamas
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by lesllamas »

Goodspeed wrote:
lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?
Yeah I can see why that would be unclear. Added this to the info post:
If the odds for Player A winning are 5.00 (also read as 5:1) that means you get 5 times the amount of points you bet in payout if player A wins. So if you had bet 1000, you would get 5000 points in return which is a 4000 point profit.


Ah, so betting on the result with a lower number is essentially betting on the favorite (the one most people think/have bet will win).
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Czech Republic EAGLEMUT
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by EAGLEMUT »

lesllamas wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:
lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?
Yeah I can see why that would be unclear. Added this to the info post:
If the odds for Player A winning are 5.00 (also read as 5:1) that means you get 5 times the amount of points you bet in payout if player A wins. So if you had bet 1000, you would get 5000 points in return which is a 4000 point profit.


Ah, so betting on the result with a lower number is essentially betting on the favorite (the one most people think/have bet will win).


Exactly.
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momuuu wrote: theres no way eaglemut is truly a top player
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Canada Cocaine
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by Cocaine »

Bart was sppose to win at least 1 god damn game. He let me down so hard.
A little Cocaine never hurt nobody!

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Canada Cocaine
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by Cocaine »

HOW HARD IS IT TO WIn 1 GAME. HOW HARD.
A little Cocaine never hurt nobody!

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Palestine Mimsy for President
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by Mimsy for President »

As hard as not being addicted to cocaine.
Netherlands momuuu
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by momuuu »

dayum @lukas vs somppu.

Some people need to read some into game theory. Betting all at 1.07 odds is probably not a wise idea, might not even be smart for h2o vs a 1st lt lol.
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by deleted_user0 »

its actually pretty wise. but its just not very profitable lol. problem with these odds are that they aren't nearly as "accurate" as true bookie odds :P the odds for somppu winning shouldnt have been nearly as close to 1.07. while the odds for h2o winning should probably be at 1.0000000000000000000000000008 but, well never get to that. so if i had a million chips, i'd put them on h2o for 1.08 and cash a fast 80.000 :D

(i actually made a 1000 bucks 2 summers ago by betting on such safe bets in tennis XD then i figured out that if i had spent that same time working, i wouldve made 2000 bucks...)
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by momuuu »

Well yes and no. Statistically speaking it might be a wise choice sometimes, if the bets are extremely safe I guess and, maybe more importantly, you've got a huge stack to bet with. Thing is that anyone should've figured the odds weren't 1.07 for somppu at all. I actually think the large 1k bets on somppu were all made last minute, which didnt draw people into betting more on lukas or so.

I guess the exploit that sometimes the chances that one player wins are so much higher that the betting odds dont reflect that is pretty nice aswell, although you never know if someone shows up in really bad shape (gets ill or injured for example). Which makes it feel like it's taking huge risks for small payouts still. It's kinda like the doubling technique in the casino, where you theoretically always make a profit if you keep doubling your stack on something that pays 2:1. If you lose after betting some amount, bet twice the amount and you'll make some profit. Yet the fact is that you're paying potentially huge amounts of cash to make tiny bits of profit. There's gonna be some day where you have a huge stack bet and run out of money, instantly throwing all your profit away.
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by deleted_user0 »

ye, that would be right if the odds were set by a bookie, but instead the odds reflect the sum of everyones expectations (or wishful thinking). so the reason the odds were at 1.07 is because people thought/expected somppu would win. so you cant really say its not wise to bet on 1.07, because you don't decide what the odds will be individually.
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by momuuu »

umeu wrote:ye, that would be right if the odds were set by a bookie, but instead the odds reflect the sum of everyones expectations (or wishful thinking). so the reason the odds were at 1.07 is because people thought/expected somppu would win. so you cant really say its not wise to bet on 1.07, because you don't decide what the odds will be individually.

I guess I'm just very surprised at people betting so much on somppu while this match does not seem like a clear walkover at all. I guess it's just people trying to go all in on the favored one with small but garantueed profits over time, but high risks. I'm happy that the risktakers got punished here haha.

Just look at it: A bet of 500 points on somppu winning would give you 30 points profit. A bet of 1 point on lukas 2-1 would give you 57 points profit. That's just insane really. Why risk 500 points while you get just toss 1 point away for about an equal chance of payout.
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by deleted_user0 »

its quite simple, they thought it was a clear walkover, but as it turns out, they made an error in judgment. its easy to say its a big risk now, but in the beginning it didnt seem that really. that said, with this setup, its never bad to bet a small amound on the unlikely event, as you did and gs did. even if you are betting more on the more likely event.
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United States of America Cometk
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by Cometk »

to be confident enough to bet on a 1.06 payout on somppu is a very bad appraisal. hardly a worthwhile endeavour.

anyway after this round i'll have ~5k points. in the last betting event i was gifted with points on multiple occasions after i had lost everything. this event if there's anyone in need of points i'd like to be that generous donor. quote me
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by iNcog »

Those big safe bets aren't really good in this system, because you'll make a small guaranteed profit, whereas what you want is to strike a home run on the right odds. Only the highest amount of points matters here.

Just look at it: A bet of 500 points on somppu winning would give you 30 points profit. A bet of 1 point on lukas 2-1 would give you 57 points profit. That's just insane really. Why risk 500 points while you get just toss 1 point away for about an equal chance of payout.


Lol, that's exactly what I did. I had one bet on both the results of Lukas winning.
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/incog_aoe
Garja wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 21:46
I just hope DE is not going to implement all of the EP changes. Right now it is a big clusterfuck.
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by deleted_user0 »

iNcog wrote:Those big safe bets aren't really good in this system, because you'll make a small guaranteed profit, whereas what you want is to strike a home run on the right odds. Only the highest amount of points matters here.

Just look at it: A bet of 500 points on somppu winning would give you 30 points profit. A bet of 1 point on lukas 2-1 would give you 57 points profit. That's just insane really. Why risk 500 points while you get just toss 1 point away for about an equal chance of payout.


Lol, that's exactly what I did. I had one bet on both the results of Lukas winning.


Its not exactly how the system works tho. I mean if all suddenly wouldve decided that betting safe sux so they risk it and bet on lukas, then the odds for lukas would plummet to the same small number as it was for somppu...
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by iNcog »

Yeah lol, you need to go against the flow if you want to do well here.

the safe bets just don't rake in the dough. but it's probably better to do so early on, just to build up your betting potential
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/incog_aoe
Garja wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 21:46
I just hope DE is not going to implement all of the EP changes. Right now it is a big clusterfuck.
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by zoom »

Goodspeed wrote:
lesllamas wrote:I can't tell how to read the odds. Like, if Player A has "1.5" odds of winning and Player B has "5.6" odds of winning, who is favored? Does a higher number indicate that they are a favorite, or vice versa?
Yeah I can see why that would be unclear. Added this to the info post:
If the odds for Player A winning are 5.00 (also read as 5:1) that means you get 5 times the amount of points you bet in payout if player A wins. So if you had bet 1000, you would get 5000 points in return which is a 4000 point profit.

4:1, actually...
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Re: Betting discussion

Post by momuuu »

Cometk wrote:to be confident enough to bet on a 1.06 payout on somppu is a very bad appraisal. hardly a worthwhile endeavour.

Yeah, I wanted to bet on somppu, I really did, but the odds were never anywhere near decent. I guess there were some people purely betting based on ELO or just randomly betting on the favorite.

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