EP Win Rate Statistics

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Brazil lemmings121
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EP Win Rate Statistics

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Post by lemmings121 »

I got some data of recent EP games, and decided to compile into a table with each MU win rate, similar to the one in Jp Elo

The data has 5632 games, we used pr30+ games as a compromise between high level and number of games. 35+ would be ideal but would leave us with a data set too small to draw any conclusion;
also, mirrors were excluded from the data (ask @Buckethead why).


The following table includes all rated 1v1 games played in EP in the last 6 months, where both players are above pr30
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  • The popularity row represents the percentage of games a given civ was played by one of the players;
  • Most played MU was France vs Russia, with 240 games, so is safe to assume that 43,3% winrate close to true;
  • Least played MU was Sioux vs Aztec, with only 5 games, so that 40% winrate has a very low confidence level and shouldnt really be a parameter for anything;

For easier readability, each civ win rate in decrescent order:
Image

Sadly the dataset is too small to give any confidence in specific Match ups. When we look at spain vs aztec we see a win rate of 85,7%, but looking further into the data we see that only 7 games where played in this mu, with a score of 6-1 in favor of spain. Hard to take any solid conclusions out of this. The raw data is bellow, if someone is interested in looking into the details of anything.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by lemmings121 »

raw data
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data.csv
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France [Armag] diarouga
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

Iroquois being one of the best civ sounds quite accurate.
Spain is the 2nd best civ because of Hazza outplaying his opponents, and high level players often picking Spain against lower players I'd say.

Russia being one of the best civ also isn't surprising as the civ is extremely easy to play and good on every maps.

I'm surprised Port is that high. I guess it's also because people tend to pick Port against worse players.
I'm not surprised by France and Brit being the worst civs because pr30- tend to play these civs. Same with India, except the civ is stronger.

That's interestings anyway, thanks for this.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:Iroquois being one of the best civ sounds quite accurate.
Spain is the 2nd best civ because of Hazza outplaying his opponents, and high level players often picking Spain against lower players I'd say.

Russia being one of the best civ also isn't surprising as the civ is extremely easy to play and good on every maps.

I'm surprised Port is that high. I guess it's also because people tend to pick Port against worse players.
I'm not surprised by France and Brit being the worst civs because pr30- tend to play these civs. Same with India, except the civ is stronger.

That's interestings anyway, thanks for this.

Statistic are made on pr30+ games so that's an unvalid argument.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

No it's not. If a pr 40 plays Spain or Port vs a pr30 there's still a huge skill gap.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:No it's not. If a pr 40 plays Spain or Port vs a pr30 there's still a huge skill gap.

well you said pr30- but whatever
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

Ah you mean France and brit.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

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Post by deleted_user0 »

Sadly the dataset is too small to give any confidence in specific Match ups. When we look at spain vs aztec we see a win rate of 85,7%, but looking further into the data we see that only 7 games where played in this mu, with a score of 6-1 in favor of spain. Hard to take any solid conclusions out of this. The raw data is bellow, if someone is interested in looking into the details of anything.


we need piroshiki vs diarouga (with small d) bo99 to fix our data
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Garja »

Can hardly make any conclusion regardless.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

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Post by deleted_user0 »

Atleast don't make any japs conclusion because Gar...nothing, i'm saying nothing!
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Djigit »

French winrate vs Brit is 59% :ohmy: (200 played games)
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Lukas_L99 »

Conclusion: Buff Sioux and nerf Spain :>
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Riotcoke »

Spain OP. Also germany's winrate is really interesting to me, it's 25 percent vs Aztec, is that just because of the low sample size, same with their winrate vs russia, it seems very low.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by lemmings121 »

Riotcoke wrote:Spain OP. Also germany's winrate is really interesting to me, it's 25 percent vs Aztec, is that just because of the low sample size, same with their winrate vs russia, it seems very low.

german has 20 games vs aztec, 5 wins

Djigit wrote:French winrate vs Brit is 59% :ohmy: (200 played games)

yes, interesting, with 200 games i think its reasonable to assume france to be at least a bit favored here.

--
Some observations i'm making now...

Jap vs brit is controversial mu, people used to call heavy brit favored, but with a 55% win rate on 197 games, it looks good for jap.

Russia vs dutch being 50-50 on almost a hundred game is also interesting, with some people taking russia as a counter pick in this mu in some recent events.

Ports vs aztec 86% is also funny, even tho is only 14 games... thats 12-2 score. but I think everyone agrees this one is port favored

Spain with 67% vs japan is also a nice one, with 64 games played, looks like a great mu for spain.

Dutch vs brit surprised me. I would call this one brit favored, but dutch has 61% win in 121 games!
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Kawapasaka »

A think a lot can be explained by the lower player counter-picking for a better chance/more interesting game (but the higher player winning anyway with the worse civ).
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

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Post by charlemango »

Yes I think the right way to calculate these statistics would be to calculate the expected win percentage based on ELO, and then see if the civ lets players play above their elo rating or below their elo rating. Then we could calculate stuff like playing Brit is +25 ELO and playing Spain is -32 ELO, for example.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by BrookG »

Garja wrote:Can hardly make any conclusion regardless.

I cannot articulate enough how correct that is. The winrates aren't informative of the status. It silly and biased to conclude anything if you compare a winrate between iro with ~600 games and Brits that have over their double? Are we saying that Brits are the worst civ on EP? This is blatantly mistaken.

I wanted to ask, which EP iterations were included in the dataset? Is it all the EP6 versions?
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Kaiserklein »

Thanks for the stats it's interesting. But yeah can't draw any conclusions from such a small sample and skill gaps between players
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by BrookG »

Also may I suggest a couple additional indices you can check? Try to measure the range and standard deviation of the winrates per civ. With those we can have some extra information on how the civ works against all the others rather than having a single percentage in the end.
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by I_HaRRiiSoN_I »

Hey guys see attached for updated file,

Includes filterable tables for civs ( i.e. playing as or versus a particular civ). You can technically include multiple civs in these filters aswell but the win rate may start to lose meaning. (ignore grand total for win percentage as it has no meaning)

Also included a table in descending games played count (so that the most useful stats are at the top) where you can filter in/out civs of your choice if you wanted to narrow down a little bit more. Unfortunately not much else to add however any questions feel free to ask.

Also pin this attachment to the top of the thread, any excel/data questions ask me.

Cheers
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Attachments
Updated Civ win-rate by Match up.xlsx
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Updated Civ win-rate by Match up.csv
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Goodspeed »

Wtf Brit players?
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by I_HaRRiiSoN_I »

@lemmings121 couple of questions,

1) Where do you get this data?
2) how do you get this data?
3) is any other information you can extract?
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

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Post by Hazza54321 »

The spain pain train has reached each destination without any delays or derailing.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by deleted_user0 »

Goodspeed wrote:Wtf Brit players?

1) Most active top players dont bother to play it because many counter picks (erik inactice, dia grinding unr)
2) Std map set gave klondike, HP, mendo 24/7
3) Manor nerf undeserved
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by deleted_user0 »

Forgot

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