EP Win Rate Statistics
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Would be interesting to see each EP players‘ win rate with each civ. But that might be too much work I guess?
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
probably, unless we extract the data from esoc elo laddersLukas_L99 wrote:Would be interesting to see each EP players‘ win rate with each civ. But that might be too much work I guess?
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
"mr.brookg go buy jeans and goto the club with somppuli" - Princeofkabul, July 2018
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
"mr.brookg go buy jeans and goto the club with somppuli" - Princeofkabul, July 2018
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
You could do a filter on ELO or PR difference between players. You could also show average PR of players on each civ to help with context.
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
that is exactly what I thought when I saw thisGoodspeed wrote:Wtf Brit players?
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
I am trying to do it now, doesn't seem to be hard, although I only have the datas from tourneys that you have provided so far, maybe @Development Team could help me to have more ? who should I contact ?BrookG wrote:probably, unless we extract the data from esoc elo laddersLukas_L99 wrote:Would be interesting to see each EP players‘ win rate with each civ. But that might be too much work I guess?
Edit : missread that's not what I am doing missread^^
but I think I still would like to get this, I am trying to do statistic on civ winrate that include players elo
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Ok I did it and here are the result I have obtained :
This was my methode
- civ strength = 0
- for each game of EPL : civ strength change = elo player change for the player playing this (exept I did as if both player were playing with their max elo) I also join a full PDF with explanation and code if you are interested in exploring more about it. I think we could creat a good methode to evaluate the civ power with this kind of stuff @zoom
PS : Note that the results here are not significant at all since the number of games in EPL is quite small. Although I think this method could be extended to a large database of games played on EP.
This was my methode
- civ strength = 0
- for each game of EPL : civ strength change = elo player change for the player playing this (exept I did as if both player were playing with their max elo) I also join a full PDF with explanation and code if you are interested in exploring more about it. I think we could creat a good methode to evaluate the civ power with this kind of stuff @zoom
PS : Note that the results here are not significant at all since the number of games in EPL is quite small. Although I think this method could be extended to a large database of games played on EP.
- Attachments
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- civRatings.pdf
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
I'm confused. Is the more postive a number is the stronger it is? Or the more negative?bwinner wrote:Ok I did it and here are the result I have obtained :
This was my methode
- civ strength = 0
- for each game of EPL : civ strength change = elo player change for the player playing this (exept I did as if both player were playing with their max elo) I also join a full PDF with explanation and code if you are interested in exploring more about it. I think we could creat a good methode to evaluate the civ power with this kind of stuff @zoom
PS : Note that the results here are not significant at all since the number of games in EPL is quite small. Although I think this method could be extended to a large database of games played on EP.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
I will check it tomorrow. NWC was also played in EP6 afaik. So we can include those data toobwinner wrote:Ok I did it and here are the result I have obtained :
This was my methode
- civ strength = 0
- for each game of EPL : civ strength change = elo player change for the player playing this (exept I did as if both player were playing with their max elo) I also join a full PDF with explanation and code if you are interested in exploring more about it. I think we could creat a good methode to evaluate the civ power with this kind of stuff @zoom
PS : Note that the results here are not significant at all since the number of games in EPL is quite small. Although I think this method could be extended to a large database of games played on EP.
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
"mr.brookg go buy jeans and goto the club with somppuli" - Princeofkabul, July 2018
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
"mr.brookg go buy jeans and goto the club with somppuli" - Princeofkabul, July 2018
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Positiv ist stronger. As said though it's just on how they performed during EPL+it's biased by people with no games on EP like wicked Cossack (he has max 1600 elo...). Although it's more to show how we could do because if I was using all games for pr30+ ep for instance, I think we would get something much more relevant.wardyb1 wrote:I'm confused. Is the more postive a number is the stronger it is? Or the more negative?bwinner wrote:Ok I did it and here are the result I have obtained :
This was my methode
- civ strength = 0
- for each game of EPL : civ strength change = elo player change for the player playing this (exept I did as if both player were playing with their max elo) I also join a full PDF with explanation and code if you are interested in exploring more about it. I think we could creat a good methode to evaluate the civ power with this kind of stuff @zoom
PS : Note that the results here are not significant at all since the number of games in EPL is quite small. Although I think this method could be extended to a large database of games played on EP.
Also the method was a bit arbitrary here, but we can easily use any other formula that would mix elo/winrate with this method.
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
You mean civ strength is the average of the ELO difference between the player playing the civ and their opponent? I think that's what we're looking for here.bwinner wrote:Ok I did it and here are the result I have obtained :
This was my methode
- civ strength = 0
- for each game of EPL : civ strength change = elo player change for the player playing this (exept I did as if both player were playing with their max elo) I also join a full PDF with explanation and code if you are interested in exploring more about it. I think we could creat a good methode to evaluate the civ power with this kind of stuff @zoom
PS : Note that the results here are not significant at all since the number of games in EPL is quite small. Although I think this method could be extended to a large database of games played on EP.
So if you have someone playing Brit and they're -100 ELO from their opponent, and someone else playing brit who is +50 ELO from their opponent, civ strength would be -25?
"Civ strength" is a rather misleading name in that case
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
No, that's not what I did. What I did is:Goodspeed wrote:You mean civ strength is the average of the ELO difference between the player playing the civ and their opponent? I think that's what we're looking for here.bwinner wrote:Ok I did it and here are the result I have obtained :
This was my methode
- civ strength = 0
- for each game of EPL : civ strength change = elo player change for the player playing this (exept I did as if both player were playing with their max elo) I also join a full PDF with explanation and code if you are interested in exploring more about it. I think we could creat a good methode to evaluate the civ power with this kind of stuff @zoom
PS : Note that the results here are not significant at all since the number of games in EPL is quite small. Although I think this method could be extended to a large database of games played on EP.
So if you have someone playing Brit and they're -100 ELO from their opponent, and someone else playing brit who is +50 ELO from their opponent, civ strength would be -25?
"Civ strength" is a rather misleading name in that case
-Initiate all civ strength to 0
-Iterate on all match played during EPL ;
-let's say we have turk 1800 elo playing India vs sheckler 1600elo playing dutch.
-if turk wins, India strength is updated to something like 0.1 and dutch to -0.1 (fake number but small number is what is important)
-if sheckler wins though, India strength is updated to like -2 and dutch strength to 2.
-then move to next match and do the same.
I think it's better than raw winrate because it reduce the impact of games where one player would win with any civ.
Although now that the tools are here, I can do what you asked very easily if you want
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Ah yeah I guess that works but it does make it a bit confusing for people because the numbers seem arbitrary (since there's a magic formula hidden behind them). If you can easily get the average ELO difference per civ, that would be helpful
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
There you go. I did it only for EPL here once again, and it's player max ep elo (I could do current ep elo if you think it's more relevant).Goodspeed wrote:Ah yeah I guess that works but it does make it a bit confusing for people because the numbers seem arbitrary (since there's a magic formula hidden behind them). If you can easily get the average ELO difference per civ, that would be helpful
EDIT : it was the average elo of the player who have played a civ during EPL @BrookG
Now I did what goodspeed asked as well so average elo difference of players for a civ compared to opponents elo
For instance, spain players were on average 180elo higher than their opponents during EPL and had an average elo of 1826.5.
EDIT2 :with more in the table @Goodspeed
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
What is this last table? I can't understand @bwinner
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
"mr.brookg go buy jeans and goto the club with somppuli" - Princeofkabul, July 2018
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
"mr.brookg go buy jeans and goto the club with somppuli" - Princeofkabul, July 2018
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Nice. If you put those numbers next to the win rates, it becomes much more meaningful. Like if Spain won 50% of their games but the average ELO was 180 higher than their opponent, the civ is probably UP.
But only EPL is too small of a sample I guess.
Also I would take JP elo if possible. EP elo ladders aren't (even close to) settled
But only EPL is too small of a sample I guess.
Also I would take JP elo if possible. EP elo ladders aren't (even close to) settled
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
@bwinner As I said you can take the data from nwc too. Great job, I am interested. I am working today, tomorrow I can give you access to edit the sheets. If you are interested we can talk a bit, how we can extract more info
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
"mr.brookg go buy jeans and goto the club with somppuli" - Princeofkabul, July 2018
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
"mr.brookg go buy jeans and goto the club with somppuli" - Princeofkabul, July 2018
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
No offense but maybe we should try to fix EP Elo before we even think about getting stats out of it
LoOk_tOm wrote:I have something in particular against Kaisar (GERMANY NOOB mercenary LAMME FOREVER) And the other people (noobs) like suck kaiser ... just this ..
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Ep stats will never be accurate with such a low player base.
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Yeah I agree that it will probably be more accurate with jp elo, especially for EPL. I will look at it when I have time but there shouldn't be problem using it @Goodspeed
Although it doesn't entirely solve the problem of people using smurf with sometimes very inacurate elo, but I guess it will still be a lot better.
I will also try with NWC when I have time @BrookG , I mainly use EPL because I am just trying to developpe the idea so far, but this is next step for sure.
Although it doesn't entirely solve the problem of people using smurf with sometimes very inacurate elo, but I guess it will still be a lot better.
I will also try with NWC when I have time @BrookG , I mainly use EPL because I am just trying to developpe the idea so far, but this is next step for sure.
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Much unlike a EU train, so I hear.Hazza54321 wrote:The spain pain train has reached each destination without any delays or derailing.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
I always like looking through ep elo and finding a 15 have the same elo as two majorsKaiserklein wrote:No offense but maybe we should try to fix EP Elo before we even think about getting stats out of it
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
+1Kaiserklein wrote:No offense but maybe we should try to fix EP Elo before we even think about getting stats out of it
Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
About that, I know that in chess for instance, change rate decrease after you've played a certain amount of games. I think this is a good feature that could participate in improving ep elo accuracy because it means you reach quickly a representative level that correspond to your starting level and then your elo doesn't move too fast which correspond to how your real level moves.Kaiserklein wrote:No offense but maybe we should try to fix EP Elo before we even think about getting stats out of it
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Well yeah, it's also how pr works. The 10-20 first games or whatever should make you gain/lose much more elo, so that you can quickly reach your "real" elo.
LoOk_tOm wrote:I have something in particular against Kaisar (GERMANY NOOB mercenary LAMME FOREVER) And the other people (noobs) like suck kaiser ... just this ..
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics
Glicko system
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