EP Win Rate Statistics

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France bwinner
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

I built a table with jp elo @Goodspeed and also for NWC @BrookG
gotta say there the smurf problem might still have a big impact, with indiabot having a max jp elo of 1900 for instance...
PS : I did it with max 1v1 jp elo, not current one.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Goodspeed »

The sample size in NWC is still small, but in the case of Brits for example it's 109 games which is not bad. The -72 average elo difference definitely explains the low win rate. Considering +100 ELO means 66% win rate (if the ELO algorithm was implemented correctly) Brit's real win rate would be more like 55%.
An interesting plot twist is that Iro's win rate on the other hand would actually turn negative, even though it's the highest win rate at first glance. Only 21 games though.

Do you think you could add a column that recalculates the win rates based on the average ELO differences? I don't have a formula for you, would have to think about it
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by BrookG »

Sadly any tournament sample is too small
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

Yeah we still have not that many games on this datas. Although, Imo it's still better to have a look at this kind of stats than relying on pure feeling.
I found also interesting to have some data visualization (here for NWC). Here I did min-max normalization, that's why it's flat for iroquois.
dataVisualization.JPG
For me it's pretty clear on this image that china was the most powerful civ during NWC. Although as you said, only 44 games is not enought to make have this conclusion.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Goodspeed »

Yeah 52% despite -67 ELO is pretty significant.
Why take max elo instead of current elo btw? Current should be more accurate no?
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

Goodspeed wrote:Yeah 52% despite -67 ELO is pretty significant.
Why take max elo instead of current elo btw? Current should be more accurate no?
Idk I though max was more accurate, especially since it's computed now and not at the time the game were played so current elo is current elo on the 18/10/2019 and not at the time the game were played.
Idk though, maybe the best would be to use what's currently used for seeding ? so max ep+current jp as I understood.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

Actually I think that the good thing to look at is expected winrate according to average elo difference versus real winrate. It gave me this for NWC :
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France flontier
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by flontier »

Should include something like % of possible match up covered by each civ games because imo its impossible to interpret if for exemple half of india game were india-russia. So atleast we know then on how many different mu each civ'winrate is based on.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by BrookG »

flontier wrote:Should include something like % of possible match up covered by each civ games because imo its impossible to interpret if for exemple half of india game were india-russia. So atleast we know then on how many different mu each civ'winrate is based on.
You would be decreasing even more the sample
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by flontier »

No i dont speak about decreasing, its just some more informations, if there has been 15 games for sioux, but you say they have play only 3 different mu's, you know that winrate is irrelevant and dont show anything about the strenght/balance of the civ.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Goodspeed »

bwinner wrote:Actually I think that the good thing to look at is expected winrate according to average elo difference versus real winrate. It gave me this for NWC :
Nice. This graph is pretty meaningful I would say, except Brit expected winrate of 30% with -72 ELO can't be right. It would be 33.3% with -100. Must be something wrong with your formula
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

Goodspeed wrote:
bwinner wrote:Actually I think that the good thing to look at is expected winrate according to average elo difference versus real winrate. It gave me this for NWC :
Nice. This graph is pretty meaningful I would say, except Brit expected winrate of 30% with -72 ELO can't be right. It would be 33.3% with -100. Must be something wrong with your formula
Hi, I am back with it, indeed there was an error, I divided by 200 instead of 400 somewhere.
There is the correct image
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

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Post by Goodspeed »

Now all you need to do is sort by the delta ;) But China top civ confirmed.

It's still too small of a sample I would say, but it does show that for example Iro's high win rate doesn't necessarily mean they're strong.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

Goodspeed wrote:Now all you need to do is sort by the delta ;) But China top civ confirmed.

It's still too small of a sample I would say, but it does show that for example Iro's high win rate doesn't necessarily mean they're strong.
What do you mean by sort by delta ?
Btw I am thinking also about using a regression to find what the best combination of current/max ep/jp elo is to predict who wins a match (this might be interesting for @Cometk as it could be use for seeding)
I think this analysis is a good tool to determine what civ has performed well or baddly during the tourney at least.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Goodspeed »

What do you mean by sort by delta ?
Subtract expected win rate from win rate and sort by the result
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by RefluxSemantic »

@bwinner can you do this for the ep ELO data? @ESOCommunity please colaborate with bwinner to make this possible. I believe these are very powerful and meaningful statistics.

Also ideally we include the standard deviation for the civ winrates in the data. That'd be a very complete data analysis for civ balance in my eyes.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

RefluxSemantic wrote:@bwinner can you do this for the ep ELO data? @ESOCommunity please colaborate with bwinner to make this possible. I believe these are very powerful and meaningful statistics.

Also ideally we include the standard deviation for the civ winrates in the data. That'd be a very complete data analysis for civ balance in my eyes.
Yes I can do that no problem, @Development Team help could be great to do the statistic on all match that happend on ep rather than only tourney (as they seem to have access to it). I personnally don't know where to find such datas.
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Jerimuno »

cant tell which are Germans and which are Ottomans from those pics :P
otherwise really nicely done, so China, Brit and one of the -mans op confirmed
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by RefluxSemantic »

Jerimuno wrote:cant tell which are Germans and which are Ottomans from those pics :P
otherwise really nicely done, so China, Brit and one of the -mans op confirmed
It claims Brits is underperforming right? Lower winrate than expected winrate based on ELO? So it's weak
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

Jerimuno wrote:cant tell which are Germans and which are Ottomans from those pics :P
otherwise really nicely done, so China, Brit and one of the -mans op confirmed
Yeah not sure why it did that to the pic, anyway ger are the one who have performed well
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by bwinner »

RefluxSemantic wrote:
Jerimuno wrote:cant tell which are Germans and which are Ottomans from those pics :P
otherwise really nicely done, so China, Brit and one of the -mans op confirmed
It claims Brits is underperforming right? Lower winrate than expected winrate based on ELO? So it's weak
depends if you take ep elo or jp elo actually^^ That's why we need to find out what's the best measure, which I am working on
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Goodspeed »

RefluxSemantic wrote:
Jerimuno wrote:cant tell which are Germans and which are Ottomans from those pics :P
otherwise really nicely done, so China, Brit and one of the -mans op confirmed
It claims Brits is underperforming right? Lower winrate than expected winrate based on ELO? So it's weak
Brit has a higher win rate than expected according to above graph
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by Jerimuno »

hm, i was thinking the graph tells me brits have higher actual winrate than expected winrate? thats why i said brit op :P
yea what gs says
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Re: EP Win Rate Statistics

Post by RefluxSemantic »

Oh, I was looking at the EP win rate statistics? That made more sense to me.

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