Astaroth wrote:Goodspeed wrote:That they wouldn't get enough subscribers to stay afloat wasn't set in stone at all, so I don't know why you guys are pretending it was "obvious". With a better format for the ECL I think the LAN event could've done much better and they might've actually ended up with the amount of subs they needed. Retaining them and gaining more could've been doable as well, with the right follow up. The AoE community may not be big, but it's old (which means relatively wealthy compared to other gaming communities). It could've worked. You can't "run the numbers" on how many subs you're going to get from hosting a LAN event. You can take a wild guess and try your best, that's about it.
Ofc you can make an educated guess based on the amount of subs and views your channel ans other channels got before for at least comparable events:
1. Amount of viewers (prerequisite for even getting subs): no channel has ever gotten a huge amount of views just off the bat, no matter how good the event was.the by far biggest stream numbers till now (excluding non-aoe streamers) were achieved by longtime aoe2 streamers who did massive promotions for their respective events (t90, nili aoe). There was just no basis whatsoever to assume that the ECL lan would hit anywhere near the required, lets say 10k at least viewers, considering that the Eacqpe twitch channel had comparatively few views and subs.
High viewer numbers are firstly due to constamt viewership over time and much less about event quality. Im sure a random t90 tourney would get more views than the best Lan ever on an unknown channel.
2. There was also no reason to assume they would get that many new subs suddenly. No other event with way more (!) viewers has ever gotten that many new subs right off the bat. Not even close.
3. All the events that garnered a lot of new subs mostly resulted in gifted 1 month subs. Those are not sustainable, unless you have constant, high quality content. And even then they will decrease. Every other aoe2 streamer has had this experience.
All of these factors combined show that there was basicslly no chance in hell to get the amount of subs needed on a permanent basis. Ofc you can now claim, but oh, this was a completely different animal, you can't compare it. But really, there was zero evidence for it.
Why would 1,5k viewers randomly subsribe to a quite small aoe2 channel, just due to one Lan, which cant even be expected to get that many views due to lacking a permanent viewership, when even in the past nothing like has ever remotely happened, even on much bigger, more popular channely with 24/7 new streams and content?