Old Screenie of ESO!

[Armag] diarouga · Post by **[Armag] diarouga** » 14 Apr 2015, 17:54

ESO will close before 2019 lol

DivineFire · Post by **DivineFire** » 14 Apr 2015, 17:59

You'll notice I didn't predict the closing date of ESO...

Buckethead · Post by **Buckethead** » 14 Apr 2015, 18:03

divinefire wrote:Ok using Buckethead''s data I made a graph of ESO population vs date, the graph is fairly self explanatory, with everything labeled and such. I also included a trend line of the total population which can be seen in black, and something super interesting is that the trend line predicts an average ESO population of 0 on January 21st, 2019. You heard it here first.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/DZRnIM5.png" style="max-width:100%'" alt=""]
EDIT: The image appears sort of small in the post, just click and drag the image to the top bar of Chrome to view it in a new tab, which will allow you to zoom in.

How did you create the graph? so beautiful.

I tried creating one but was ugly and simple (click to enlarge, was very large):
[attachment id="319" thumbnail="1"]

wookl · Post by **wookl** » 14 Apr 2015, 18:14

farran344 isn't _H2O?

Mimsy for President · Post by **Mimsy for President** » 14 Apr 2015, 18:15

wow only 3.3 K in 2008. That's actually sad.

DivineFire · Post by **DivineFire** » 14 Apr 2015, 18:29

hermes wrote:
divinefire wrote:Ok using Bucketheads data I made a graph of ESO population vs date, the graph is fairly self explanatory, with everything labeled and such. I also included a trend line of the total population which can be seen in black, and something super interesting is that the trend line predicts an average ESO population of 0 on January 21st, 2019. You heard it here first.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/DZRnIM5.png[/img]
EDIT: The image appears sort of small in the post, just click and drag the image to the top bar of Chrome to view it in a new tab, which will allow you to zoom in.
How did you create the graph? so beautiful.

I tried creating one but was ugly and simple (click to enlarge, was very large):

You can actually just save the txt file as a .csv file and then it will open in graphing programs like excel, if youve ever made a graph in a program like that then its pretty straight forward from there on in.

DivineFire · Post by **DivineFire** » 14 Apr 2015, 18:31

shaolinstar wrote:wow only 3.3 K in 2008. That''s actually sad.

Those are averages across an entire day, which includes high and low times, the populations would peak at around 4500 during the day.

[Armag] diarouga · Post by **[Armag] diarouga** » 14 Apr 2015, 18:50

wookl wrote:farran344 isn''t _H2O?

Idk, ask him

Mimsy for President · Post by **Mimsy for President** » 14 Apr 2015, 19:05

divinefire wrote:
shaolinstar wrote:wow only 3.3 K in 2008. Thats actually sad.
Those are averages across an entire day, which includes high and low times, the populations would peak at around 4500 during the day.

Then ok. But still I expected over 10K ^^ I wonder how many players were online when SC2 HotS was released. Good job with the graph though ')

Post by **edeholland** » 14 Apr 2015, 19:16

At what moment did TAD take over Vanilla?

Papist · Post by **Papist** » 14 Apr 2015, 19:26

@iamsoldier. Damn 4600 peeps online. You should see the drool coming out of my mouth right now.

Papist · Post by **Papist** » 14 Apr 2015, 19:28

shaolinstar wrote:wow only 3.3 K in 2008. That''s actually sad.

Don''t take too much from an average. Averages can be misleading if one does not exclude the extreme outliers.

musketeer925 · Post by **musketeer925** » 14 Apr 2015, 19:46

It looks like the decline is slowing, actually. Towards the end, the total numbers look fairly stable.

Looking at the graph, it doesn't look like TAD overtook vanilla until summer of last year at the earliest. Strange that it would take so long after the expansion.

Mimsy for President · Post by **Mimsy for President** » 14 Apr 2015, 19:49

papist wrote:
shaolinstar wrote:wow only 3.3 K in 2008. Thats actually sad.
Dont take too much from an average. Averages can be misleading if one does not exclude the extreme outliers.

Ikr. I guess thats the maximum. 2331,423,2102,[color=ff0000]4856[/color],Sun Feb 17 2008 14:11:04

DivineFire · Post by **DivineFire** » 14 Apr 2015, 20:29

edeholland wrote:At what moment did TAD take over Vanilla?

I''m not actually sure what exact moment the TAD population overtook Vanilla, and it would be difficult to figure out, but using trend lines again it appears that the daily average overtook Vanilla sometime in mid-late 2013. However, the trend line for TAD does account for the large section before it''s release where it has 0 users, therefore the trend line points up instead of down.

DivineFire · Post by **DivineFire** » 14 Apr 2015, 20:40

Another thing I found was game specific maximums which are:
TAD at 2146 on Jan 26th 2008 14:41:00
TWC at 2234 on Feb 11th 2007 11:26:01
Vanilla at 2747 on Nov 11th 2006 11:26:00, though sadly this is just the first Saturday after the log began and therefore the Vanilla population was likely much higher before it started being logged.

Edit: 2747 is actually the code I use to get into my dorm at university, illuminati confirmed.

WickedCossack · Post by **WickedCossack** » 14 Apr 2015, 20:54

Though the numbers are not super high I'm always impressed by the retention rate for age of empires games. You could probably count the number of games on one or two hands that are better in this aspect than aoe3.

Is it possible to get a trend line that represents an exponential decay rather than a linear relationship ? I think the linear model is unfairly representing our dedication in the later years !

MCJim · Post by **MCJim** » 14 Apr 2015, 21:06

Shocking to see the trend line :O Didn't thought it would decline that fast...

Fortunately the is decline is slowing. And ye TAD overtook Nilla, something I've noticed a couple of months before. It may have to do with PK Tournament, many people started playing TAD by then. Also the active streaming community started only about one year ago. Those streamers played TAD and that may have to do with TAD's take over as well.

WickedCossack · Post by **WickedCossack** » 14 Apr 2015, 21:12

mcjim wrote:Shocking to see the trend line :O Didn''t thought it would decline that fast...

That graph shows nine years amico ! That''s a very long time in the gaming industry.

Considering how few fucks MS actually give/gave about aoe3 eso that trend line is insane.

Post by **edeholland** » 14 Apr 2015, 21:23

Imagine the first Call of Duty still having 1/3 of the activity when it came out.

Mimsy for President · Post by **Mimsy for President** » 14 Apr 2015, 21:27

Nilla is cheaper. With expansions, the price climbs sharply apart from Steam sales. Also nilla is way simpler since there are less civs, maps, units etc. Therefore people chose to stay on it. Perhaps that explains their "noobness" (do not get me wrong)

Papist · Post by **Papist** » 14 Apr 2015, 22:00

shaolinstar wrote:Nilla is cheaper. With expansions, the price climbs sharply apart from Steam sales. Also nilla is way simpler since there are less civs, maps, units etc. Therefore people chose to stay on it. Perhaps that explains their "noobness" (do not get me wrong)

Post by **edeholland** » 14 Apr 2015, 22:03

divinefire wrote:Ok using Buckethead''s data I made a graph of ESO population vs date, the graph is fairly self explanatory, with everything labeled and such. I also included a trend line of the total population which can be seen in black, and something super interesting is that the trend line predicts an average ESO population of 0 on January 21st, 2019. You heard it here first.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/DZRnIM5.png" style="max-width:100%'" alt=""]
EDIT: The image appears sort of small in the post, just click and drag the image to the top bar of Chrome to view it in a new tab, which will allow you to zoom in.

Just quoting so your picture is on this page also.

Aramir · Post by **Aramir** » 14 Apr 2015, 23:44

actually its just amazing how the game is still alive after this long period of time as mentioned already

ESOC

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