This. Real life example: some time ago i got to meet my girlfriend's brother. He's really smart kid, aged twelve. He also lives in the countryside, not a lot of kids around and no 'urban' activities, so he spends a lot of time in front of his PC, which btw he built himself from scratch just watching youtube videos, so I'd say he really likes computers overall. He was thrilled to see my game collection (rather mediocre, but for him it was huge). The problem was that we started from the ones i like the most, and warcraft 3 managed to keep him entertained for about... 5 minutes . Then it turned out that strategies and card games are like 70% of my collection, which didn't really help. Only things actually fun for him were stuff like fighters, shooters and adventure games. After whole life of playing fortnite and assasin's creed, his mind just couldn't give a shit about a game where you have to do so much stuff at once just to fight with a PC that attacked with army twice as big. And that was even without any hotkeys or build orders[Armag] diarouga wrote:I overall agree with you, but I think that there's another issue with RTS for the casual players : it's too hard.
Even Age of Empires III, which is among the easiest RTS games, is too hard for a casual beginner. He needs to learn how to manage an economy and an army, make different units (ie learn the counter system), get upgrades, that's just too much. If you compare that to MOBA, all a beginner has to do there is learn his champion's ability (because he's only going to play one at first), the different upgrades he can buy and that's it, he can play.
In a RTS game, even a mediocre player (like MS which is probably like gold in MOBAs), is going to 1v4 easily beginners, so the game will look more like a 1 vs team than a team game, while in MOBAs, even the noob mate is important.
Thus, I believe that RTS games simply cannot make a comeback. If people want to play casual games with friends, they'll play MOBA (which is a RTS game where you don't need to macro your eco and only need to micro one unit), and if they want to try hard a game, they'll play RTS, whether it's 1v1 or team (and 1v1 is more competitive so the focus should be on 1v1).
The only way for RTS to attract beginners would be to drastically reduce the difficulty of a game without making it slower (because slow games are boring to watch), while focusing on team games, but that's simply not a RTS anymore then.
Second example: my brothers all liked RTS's too when we were kids. Now, when they're super busy and we see each other just few times a year, I'm always ready to fire up couple of maps. They played with me for stunning 2 days and I managed to beat them all in 1v3 before they said 'fuck it' and since then they only agree to casual Cuphead runs . And I'm not even that good, I was like 1st lt on EP.
I would say that 1v1 is actually only thing keeping RTS alive. I don't think its other aspects can keep up with gaming industry. A sad truth is that we lost the popularity contest long ago, and most of us don't even realize it. In some thread recently I saw someone shocked that according to Steam data over 70% of AoE 3 DE users are single-player, not believing that there could be so many 'dirty casuals' . But the truth is... people aren't really that competitive. Or rather, it isn't what they look for in a PC game. Competitive people who have hours of time daily to polish they skills and become better would rather start they own businesses or hone their skills in some real-life aspect that can potentially give them a shitton of money to find entertainment elsewhere, not waste away in front of a screen.
I hope that I'm wrong, but so far it seems that we are like dinosaurs, bound to become obsolete, the same way that high culture, classical music or religion, with all their depths and ambitious purposes just don't have that wide and universal appeal for the masses.