China. An Orwellian future staring it in the face, how is it going to turn itself around from here? With already widespread censorship and mass surveillance, is there any hope of a revolution? Will that hope only dwindle over time?
How long before the ministry of love is formed?
Certainly the powers that be can't be trifled with from the outside, because our economy is too dependent on China.
Some reading:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6118 ... have-data/
The elephant in the room
Re: The elephant in the room
Certainly it is an interesting situation that is likely to unfold over the next 15 years. However I think it will mainly come down to how stable the government can remain / can Xi Jinping remain in control and in power. China still has many economic road bumps ahead and steering the now hulking behemoth that is China around them will be no easy feat. Personally I think there is a good chance it will all unravel within 20 years, yet that is kind of a gut feeling. Will the people rise up? Unlikely a least in the short term. The quality of life for most Chinese people has been significantly raised in recent history. It would take a major catalyst for most people to change how they feel about how well China has grown and become a major powerhouse in the world's community. Yes, there is still growing and significant discontent of a growing police state but until people's lives are affected to where their quality of life is detrimentally hurt, I don't think a people's revolution would be the catalyst for change. More likely a major economic downturn leading to unstable government then followed by the people doing something about it.
“To love the journey is to accept no such end. I have found, through painful experience, that the most important step a person can take is always the next one.”
Re: The elephant in the room
I don't see any room for a coup in China. President Xi has packed the Politburo Standing Committee, and thus the Chinese Military Commission with his allies. China also doesn't seem to be be the type of country that has coups. Revolts and uprisings are more their thing, historically. This is probably related to the regionalism and multi-ethnic structure of China. (a popular person in Shanghai might not be popular enough to get support from people out west, so a coup = civil war) Such countries are going to necessarily need increasingly strong central-governments in order to function as a modernized superpower; unless they wish to form a confederation, which almost always ends in obsolescence. Because of all of this, I don't see some liberal bureaucrat randomly launching a coup one day. In a way, China needs the CCP. A weak government could possibly lead to a total collapse of social-order within China.
Internal change in China is still possible. In the West, our lower-classes gained rights due to the intervention of the bourgeoisie. If China's middle-class grows then it is going to slowly improve the country's rights as a whole. It seems difficult to imagine a production-based country of 1.4 billion people sustaining a large middle-class though. I don't know enough about the Chinese economy to say if the middle-class is growing or not though. What I do know is that most of the country is still peasants. So if all the trade wealth is going to the elite and not to the middle-class then there is the possibility for discontent among the lower-classes. Note that a revolt among the peasants would probably not result in long-term social change, and the following government would be nearly identical to the previous. It lacks the permanent advantage of a middle-class based disobedience.
Looking at China from the perspective of a Westerner seeking to defang a potential threat to American supremacy is different. There are now geopolitical questions. Modern international relations are tripolar. Back in the 90's and 2000's it was unipolar under American rule, but Russia and China have grown in strength while America has weakened. That means modern geopolitics is essentially a game of getting two out of three to agree to something; the three of course being America, Russia, and China. The West as a whole is threatened by a Eurasian Alliance. It got lucky with the Sino-Soviet split, but it may not get that lucky this time around. Thus, American policy is to court Russia or China to team up and screw the loser over. You can't simply toss a bunch of sanctions on China and fund rebels, because that'll send them straight into Russia's arms. It would be all or nothing, and there doesn't appear to be enough instability in China for that to work out. My five point plan to defeating China would be.
#1. Flood the market with oil. This will: Hurt the Russian economy; boost the Chinese economy, thus exacerbating the class-effects of economic growth; and prevent any further Russo-Chinese oil infrastructure from being developed.
#2. Ensure that all essential products are produced domestically. Western countries need to be able to survive a sudden total halt to all trade with China.
#3. Back nationalist and socialist politicians that will hurt Chinese investments in Africa and other third-world countries. Sow anti-Chinese narratives in their media to help.
#4. Push ethnic and religious tensions in China. China was able to annihilate falun gong, so it may be difficult to divide China on religion. But it has a historical weakness to ethnic conflict. This will hurt and delegitimize the current regime.
#5. Industrialize and trade with South American and other Asian countries. Eliminating China's virtual monopoly in production will pose an existential threat to it. In addition. Chinese investments in their internal markets would fail, causing a deflationary crisis and most likely collapsing their volatile lending market. A major economic collapse in China would almost certainly lead to government reform.
Internal change in China is still possible. In the West, our lower-classes gained rights due to the intervention of the bourgeoisie. If China's middle-class grows then it is going to slowly improve the country's rights as a whole. It seems difficult to imagine a production-based country of 1.4 billion people sustaining a large middle-class though. I don't know enough about the Chinese economy to say if the middle-class is growing or not though. What I do know is that most of the country is still peasants. So if all the trade wealth is going to the elite and not to the middle-class then there is the possibility for discontent among the lower-classes. Note that a revolt among the peasants would probably not result in long-term social change, and the following government would be nearly identical to the previous. It lacks the permanent advantage of a middle-class based disobedience.
Looking at China from the perspective of a Westerner seeking to defang a potential threat to American supremacy is different. There are now geopolitical questions. Modern international relations are tripolar. Back in the 90's and 2000's it was unipolar under American rule, but Russia and China have grown in strength while America has weakened. That means modern geopolitics is essentially a game of getting two out of three to agree to something; the three of course being America, Russia, and China. The West as a whole is threatened by a Eurasian Alliance. It got lucky with the Sino-Soviet split, but it may not get that lucky this time around. Thus, American policy is to court Russia or China to team up and screw the loser over. You can't simply toss a bunch of sanctions on China and fund rebels, because that'll send them straight into Russia's arms. It would be all or nothing, and there doesn't appear to be enough instability in China for that to work out. My five point plan to defeating China would be.
#1. Flood the market with oil. This will: Hurt the Russian economy; boost the Chinese economy, thus exacerbating the class-effects of economic growth; and prevent any further Russo-Chinese oil infrastructure from being developed.
#2. Ensure that all essential products are produced domestically. Western countries need to be able to survive a sudden total halt to all trade with China.
#3. Back nationalist and socialist politicians that will hurt Chinese investments in Africa and other third-world countries. Sow anti-Chinese narratives in their media to help.
#4. Push ethnic and religious tensions in China. China was able to annihilate falun gong, so it may be difficult to divide China on religion. But it has a historical weakness to ethnic conflict. This will hurt and delegitimize the current regime.
#5. Industrialize and trade with South American and other Asian countries. Eliminating China's virtual monopoly in production will pose an existential threat to it. In addition. Chinese investments in their internal markets would fail, causing a deflationary crisis and most likely collapsing their volatile lending market. A major economic collapse in China would almost certainly lead to government reform.
-
BigThunderMan - Crossbow
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Aug 19, 2016
- ESO: KingErick
- Location: Texas, ally'all.
Re: The elephant in the room
I think about this often in regards to a global context. As I've traveled around the world recently, I've realized that the world's orientation has swung much closer to Huxley than Orwell, if you will.
The world does not generally believe in free speech, so I don't view China as a peculiar abnormality on this. They're certainly no worse than the USSR (my origin). They tend to rewrite their history fairly regularly (especially what they did with their ancient history). That's not a Maoist change for them. The Chinese have historically tended to be really insular, so I frame their current political ambitions as a desire to find a lower class of people (especially Africa) to procure resources from while they move into a post-industrial economy. Governments keep populations relatively sedated on media, food & alcohol, and various mind-altering substances; I suspect that the Chinese middle and lower classes will be no exception.
At the day's end, it comes down to economics and national mythos. If the economy is relatively fine, the people are content. Unless the daily Chinese life is completely ruined, I doubt the regime will fall. It will remain a mixed bag with an entrenched, fat and happy elite.
The world does not generally believe in free speech, so I don't view China as a peculiar abnormality on this. They're certainly no worse than the USSR (my origin). They tend to rewrite their history fairly regularly (especially what they did with their ancient history). That's not a Maoist change for them. The Chinese have historically tended to be really insular, so I frame their current political ambitions as a desire to find a lower class of people (especially Africa) to procure resources from while they move into a post-industrial economy. Governments keep populations relatively sedated on media, food & alcohol, and various mind-altering substances; I suspect that the Chinese middle and lower classes will be no exception.
At the day's end, it comes down to economics and national mythos. If the economy is relatively fine, the people are content. Unless the daily Chinese life is completely ruined, I doubt the regime will fall. It will remain a mixed bag with an entrenched, fat and happy elite.
Was famous once: https://www.ageofempires.com/news/2014/ ... hunderman/
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests