Is Russia at war with Ukraine?

[kami_ryu]

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[kami_ryu]

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[deleted_user]

Huh, interesting. I'm interested.

[momuuu]

That's actually mildly concerning.

[BrookG]

maybe livestream links dont work, here's an article https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46338671

[Horsemen]

Where have you been man? Russia has been at war with Ukraine for years.

[Dolan]

Russia claims Ukrainian ships tried to enter its territorial waters illegally so they used force to stop them.
Ukraine claims their ships were just trying to enter the Sea of Azov by crossing the Kerch Strait.

A bilateral treaty gives both Russia and Ukraine the right to use the Sea of Azov, which lies between them and is linked by the narrow Kerch Strait to the Black Sea. Tension has risen since Russia annexed Crimea, with both countries complaining about shipping delays and harassment.

Russia’s border guard service accused Ukraine earlier on Sunday of not informing it in advance of the three ships’ journey, something Kiev denied.

Russia said the Ukrainian ships had been maneuvering dangerously and ignoring its instructions with the aim of stirring up tensions.

Russian politicians denounced Kiev, saying the incident looked like a calculated bid by Poroshenko to increase his popularity ahead of an election next year.

Russia blocked the strait by placing a cargo ship under the bridge that straddles the strait.



It's possible that neither of them are innocent in this incident. I wouldn't put it past Russia to harass Ukrainian naval transit of goods across the Sea of Azov by using various tactics. They've already been testing NATO defences in the Black Sea area for quite a while (British Jets Scramble From Romania To Investigate Russian Fighter Jets). And I wouldn't put it past Ukraine to make an attempt at drawing Western forces into a conflict with Russia, so they can solve their territorial dispute with Russia.

Then, again, it could simply be an incident that was started by a bunch of sailors making decisions that go way above their paygrade.

[spanky4ever]

would think that is a very good and prolly accurate analyzes of this dangerous games @Dolan

[dietschlander]

Where have you been man? Russia has been at war with Ukraine for years.

Is that true? They aint doing a good job then

[pecelot]

well, yeah, that's why we have like 3 million Ukrainians here in Poland now

[dietschlander]

is that like 20% of Poland? How many vills does Poland have?

[pecelot]

it's around 7,5%, but rumours about Germany opening their borders to Ukrainian workers have it that this number may soon decrease drastically

[dietschlander]

do you consider that as a good or bad thing for Poland Pece?

[spanky4ever]

No, Russia is not at war with Ukraine. Ukraine made this provocations cos the president of Ukraine are scared he might lose re-election (fat chance he would). That is what I think anyways.

[pecelot]

I don't mind it

[jesus3]

Anyone who claims there is no war - inform yourselves about the donbass area as well as the history of the euromaidan. It culminated in the crimea annexation in march of 2014 and the recent events are a consequence of that, Russia views crimea and the area it surrounds (unrecognized) their territory (historically, Russia's origins lie in today's Ukraine - google "Kievan rus" and Russia never abandoned the will to encorporate Ukraine in the future again, it's a strong domestic political tool).
Now Poroshenko called upon the NATO and there's actually a chance - or rather an impending "necessity" to use military force from NATO side (at least this one time), since soft power in form of sanctions doesn't seem to keep Putin in check anymore. I don't want escalation, but the concerns are real.

[Dolan]

Russia "views" everything in any way it gives them an advantage. For example, they think Romanians are not even a nation.

Also NATO cannot officially intervene in Ukraine, because they're not a NATO member. They're just a partner, so any level of involvement will have to reflect such a soft commitment. You're more likely to see direct USA rather than NATO involvement.

[pecelot]

but it's not like other countries didn't help the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, in such proximity it's likely that European countries would get involved, if the war was due

[Dolan]

Those who got involved in Afghanistan and Iraq were also NATO members. Germany, France, the UK, Romania, etc, they all sent troops in those countries at some point because NATO was involved.

But when Crimea was invaded and annexed by Russia, nobody moved one finger, since Ukraine wasn't a NATO member and it wasn't the focus of any war on terror either. The West just got presented with a fait accompli situation, it was too late to do anything without actually starting a direct military confrontation with Russia.

[Horsemen]

We need another Crimean War!

[jesus3]

Those who got involved in Afghanistan and Iraq were also NATO members. Germany, France, the UK, Romania, etc, they all sent troops in those countries at some point because NATO was involved.

But when Crimea was invaded and annexed by Russia, nobody moved one finger, since Ukraine wasn't a NATO member and it wasn't the focus of any war on terror either. The West just got presented with a fait accompli situation, it was too late to do anything without actually starting a direct military confrontation with Russia.

Ukraine is of interest for all bigger players there, even if they're not a NATO member. There is no way the NATO won't get involved further there and actually made "use" of in the future, especially since there was no reaction on the crimea issue. This time it's an ongoing operation and highly likely to be pushed further by Putin. Other countries close to Russia, especially the Baltic states (EU and NATO members) are nervous already, others will follow.
I'm just saying this harbors a huge potential for higher scale intervention. If the NATO wants to be taken seriously from here on (as the EU is currently a laughing stock on international level already), and I'm sure they also know that, there has to be an answer this time.

[Dolan]

Yeah, there's going to be more statements about how they stand behind and beside Ukraine. But NATO Is not crazy to put boots on the ground to defend a non-member.
So in worst case, we're gonna see more sanctions and more speeches at the UN.
It's not like NATO is going to attack Russia to liberate those Ukrainian prisoners taken by the Russians. Just as they can't do shit to get Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine. Just a lot of statements, condemnations, sanctions etc.
Nobody's going to start a war for a bunch of arrested sailors from a few cargo ships. Stakes are not high enough.
Maybe if they put enough pressure on Russia, they might free those prisoners, but that might happen in a few years' time, after they're "sick" enough to not be useful for Russia to prosecute anymore.

And so on and so forth. Russia is very good at playing these cat and mouse games with the West.

[pecelot]

my point about undertakings like ISAF was meant to prove that it doesn't matter if the target country is a NATO member or not for NATO to actually get involved; though I'm definitely inclined to subscribe to little likelihood of a war being erected out of this — a war that would undoubtedly be pretty deathly

[Dolan]

Yeah, ISAF was involved in a country that wasn't in NATO and it involved countries that weren't in NATO either. That's because ISAF was created as a result of the shock that the USA suffered from the 9/11 terror attacks. The shock was so great, nobody dared to raise any objections against the W Bush administration's idea that they need a "global war on terror". They even passed a number of UN resolutions to provide legal backing for sending troops to Afghanistan. Imagine this, Russia and China voting in the UN permanent Security Council in favour of USA (and NATO and other countries) sending troops to a state that wasn't too far from them. That's how shocking the 9/11 events were. If you disagreed with this proposal, you risked being branded as a supporter of terrorism.

But after we've seen the games China and Russia have been playing in the Security Council at the UN (during the Iran crisis, during the Syrian civil war), it's hard to imagine that they would agree to give legal backing to any kind of force that would try to punish Russia. Russia agreeing in the UN security council that international forces should land in Ukraine to help it manage its conflict with Russia? Count me skeptical.

[jesus3]

Never said an all out war is going to happen between NATO-members and Russia. But there has to be some muscle-flexing from NATO side this time, not just condemnation and sanctions. Otherwise Putin will see it as a free pass to continue and that'd be inacceptable for NATO-members as it goes against the very premise of NATO itself. It has to be something in between although I find it more likely that it's gonna be as Dolan said, nothing real happening and Russia advancing again.