US Politics Megathread

[fightinfrenchman]

:thonking:

Probabilities, how do they work?

[Goodspeed]

Probabilities, how do they work?

Obviously, anything above 50% is a certainty. If it doesn't end up happening, the probability was wrong. For example if I throw a die the probability of the result being greater than 1 is ~83%. If it ends up being 1, the probability of 83% was clearly wrong

[n0el]

Clinton is higher than Harris and Buttgeg. LMAO.

[Goodspeed]

Interestingly if you look at the graph there was a significant increase in the Clinton odds recently. Is there a new reason to believe she'll run?

[n0el]

She's been vocal about impeachment, etc.. lately.

[gibson]

Yeah a Biden win would be an absolute disaster for anyone even remotely progressive. If he wins the primary, Trump winning a second term may even be preferable.
I really don't see Biden winning the primary though

Is this kind of attitude thats fucking America. The "If I cant have everything I want this election Trump may as well win" and its genuinely pissing me off. You do realize that if Trump gets reelected in 2020 theres an incredibly high probability of him getting a third supreme court appointee, meaning the supreme court is likely to be hard right leaning for potentially 40 years? That is by far the most damaging thing that could happen to this country. This election is about damage control. This election is about trying to push things back towards the center so that in 10 or 20 years we can elect a more progressive candidate who might actually be able to get something done. You do realize that even if a progressive democrat gets elected they wont be able to do shit right? The supreme court is right leaning, not a single republican will back anything progressive, and neither will any of the more center leaning democrats. Just look at the hoops Obama had to jump through to pass the very conservative Obamacare. This election is about showing the quarter or so of the country who are right leaning but arent brainwashed by Trump that the democrats arent the worst people since Adolf Hitler. So you and @n0el and the rest of the "progressive" left who sit upon the moralistic high horse of "If we can't get a progressive candidate Trump may as well win" need to get the fuck down and realize that this election has real ramifications for people( good bye row vs wade) and the stakes are incredibly high because the chances of Ruth Bader Ginsburg living another 4 years are highly unlikely and if you think that 4 or 8 years of Joe Biden are seriously worse than 40-50 years of a far right leaning supreme court on top of 4 more years of Trump than I would like to genuinely ask you to go fuck yourself.

[n0el]

@gibson I didn't ever say Trump might as well win. I will be out knocking on doors for WHOEVER is the candidate. Fuck that. I am saying that Biden is not the answer, he might stop the bleeding, but he isn't doing anything to stop the thing that started the bleeding to begin with, and in 4-8 years that band-aid is coming off and you won't be able to contain it.

[Goodspeed]

Yeah a Biden win would be an absolute disaster for anyone even remotely progressive. If he wins the primary, Trump winning a second term may even be preferable.
I really don't see Biden winning the primary though

Is this kind of attitude thats fucking America. The "If I cant have everything I want this election Trump may as well win" and its genuinely pissing me off. You do realize that if Trump gets reelected in 2020 theres an incredibly high probability of him getting a third supreme court appointee, meaning the supreme court is likely to be hard right leaning for potentially 40 years? That is by far the most damaging thing that could happen to this country. This election is about damage control. This election is about trying to push things back towards the center so that in 10 or 20 years we can elect a more progressive candidate who might actually be able to get something done. You do realize that even if a progressive democrat gets elected they wont be able to do shit right? The supreme court is right leaning, not a single republican will back anything progressive, and neither will any of the more center leaning democrats. Just look at the hoops Obama had to jump through to pass the very conservative Obamacare. This election is about showing the quarter or so of the country who are right leaning but arent brainwashed by Trump that the democrats arent the worst people since Adolf Hitler. So you and @n0el and the rest of the "progressive" left who sit upon the moralistic high horse of "If we can't get a progressive candidate Trump may as well win" need to get the fuck down and realize that this election has real ramifications for people( good bye row vs wade) and the stakes are incredibly high because the chances of Ruth Bader Ginsburg living another 4 years are highly unlikely and if you think that 4 or 8 years of Joe Biden are seriously worse than 40-50 years of a far right leaning supreme court on top of 4 more years of Trump than I would like to genuinely ask you to go fuck yourself.

It's a complicated question. You just listed all of the positives of a Biden presidency. I do agree with all of it and think the possible SC nomination is a particularly big deal, but have you considered the other side? Biden is so far from what your country needs right now I think you should at least seriously ask yourself if an actual good candidate in 4 years may be preferable.

The GOP is very good at being the opposition party. Considering Biden would be both an incredibly weak leader and one that doesn't represent the democratic progressive base, I think staying in office for the full 8 years would be a serious challenge for him and the party, which also has to worry about the house and senate. Those are also the reasons he won't win the primary though, to be fair.
One question we need to ask ourselves is: Do we like those odds? If not, then we need to consider if we would rather have a democrat for the next 4 years and a republican for the 8 after, or the other way around.

4 more years of Trump also enable the democratic party to continue the search for its progressive roots. With Biden at the helm, they will be resigned to another 8 years of being GOP lite. On the other side of the isle there's the GOP which, much like the democratic party, is in an identity crisis, and I think that their long term play is to drop Trumpism as soon as possible. Another Trump term removes that possibility for the foreseeable future, and that might be something they can't come back from for a while.

Like n0el said Biden is a band aid and a shitty one at that. And the thing with band aids is that they can result in everyone stopping the search for an actual cure. There's a reason that when you say you can't wait for President Biden, you're getting a "Me too" response from the likes of Amsel.

Having said all that, I would prefer Biden over a second Trump term. I wouldn't blame people for going the other way on that though. I wasn't particularly broken up about the Trump victory in 2016 either, because I imagined it would lay bare many of the America's problems (it has), would pose a problem for the long term future of the GOP (it has) and would enable a real progressive candidate to win in 2020 (they probably are).

[gibson]

Yeah a Biden win would be an absolute disaster for anyone even remotely progressive. If he wins the primary, Trump winning a second term may even be preferable.
I really don't see Biden winning the primary though

Is this kind of attitude thats fucking America. The "If I cant have everything I want this election Trump may as well win" and its genuinely pissing me off. You do realize that if Trump gets reelected in 2020 theres an incredibly high probability of him getting a third supreme court appointee, meaning the supreme court is likely to be hard right leaning for potentially 40 years? That is by far the most damaging thing that could happen to this country. This election is about damage control. This election is about trying to push things back towards the center so that in 10 or 20 years we can elect a more progressive candidate who might actually be able to get something done. You do realize that even if a progressive democrat gets elected they wont be able to do shit right? The supreme court is right leaning, not a single republican will back anything progressive, and neither will any of the more center leaning democrats. Just look at the hoops Obama had to jump through to pass the very conservative Obamacare. This election is about showing the quarter or so of the country who are right leaning but arent brainwashed by Trump that the democrats arent the worst people since Adolf Hitler. So you and @n0el and the rest of the "progressive" left who sit upon the moralistic high horse of "If we can't get a progressive candidate Trump may as well win" need to get the fuck down and realize that this election has real ramifications for people( good bye row vs wade) and the stakes are incredibly high because the chances of Ruth Bader Ginsburg living another 4 years are highly unlikely and if you think that 4 or 8 years of Joe Biden are seriously worse than 40-50 years of a far right leaning supreme court on top of 4 more years of Trump than I would like to genuinely ask you to go fuck yourself.

It's a complicated question. You just listed all of the positives of a Biden presidency. I do agree with all of it and think the possible SC nomination is a particularly big deal, but have you considered the other side? Biden is so far from what your country needs right now I think you should at least seriously ask yourself if an actual good candidate in 4 years may be preferable.

The GOP is very good at being the opposition party. Considering Biden would be both an incredibly weak leader and one that doesn't represent the democratic progressive base, I think staying in office for the full 8 years would be a serious challenge for him and the party. Those are also the reasons he won't win the primary though, to be fair.
One question we need to ask ourselves is: Do we like those odds? If not, then we need to consider if we would rather have a democrat for the next 4 years and a republican for the 8 after, or the other way around.

4 more years of Trump also enable the democratic party to continue the search for its progressive roots. With Biden at the helm, they will be resigned to another 8 years of being GOP lite. On the other side of the isle there's the GOP which, much like the democratic party, is in an identity crisis, and I think that their long term play is to drop Trumpism as soon as possible. Another Trump term removes that possibility for the foreseeable future, and that might be something they can't come back from for a while.

Like n0el said Biden is a band aid and a shitty one at that. And the thing with band aids is that they can result in everyone stopping the search for an actual cure. There's a reason that when you say you can't wait for President Biden, you're getting a "Me too" response from the likes of Amsel.

Having said all that, I would prefer Biden over a second Trump term. I wouldn't blame people for going the other way on that though. I wasn't particularly broken up about the Trump victory in 2016 either, because I imagined it would lay bare many of the America's problems (it has), would pose a problem for the long term future of the GOP (it has) and would enable a real progressive candidate to win in 2020 (they probably are).

Long story short, yes, I would rather have Biden for 4 years even if it means 8 years of marco rubio or whoever the latest gop hot shot is. If Biden wins Ruth Bader Ginsburg will retire and Biden will appoint another Justice. That is a much much much bigger deal than anything else. Having a far right leaning supreme court for the next 40-50 years will do much more damage than anything else possibly could.

[n0el]

He MIGHT appoint another justice. There's nothing stopping McConnell from refusing to seat the justice. If the Supreme Court is what you are worried about, then Biden is very concerning. He's not a base inspiring candidate, even if he wins. He won't rally the entire left to the polls, which is what is needed to have a chance to take the Senate.

[Goodspeed]

Show hidden quotes

Yeah a Biden win would be an absolute disaster for anyone even remotely progressive. If he wins the primary, Trump winning a second term may even be preferable.
I really don't see Biden winning the primary though

Is this kind of attitude thats fucking America. The "If I cant have everything I want this election Trump may as well win" and its genuinely pissing me off. You do realize that if Trump gets reelected in 2020 theres an incredibly high probability of him getting a third supreme court appointee, meaning the supreme court is likely to be hard right leaning for potentially 40 years? That is by far the most damaging thing that could happen to this country. This election is about damage control. This election is about trying to push things back towards the center so that in 10 or 20 years we can elect a more progressive candidate who might actually be able to get something done. You do realize that even if a progressive democrat gets elected they wont be able to do shit right? The supreme court is right leaning, not a single republican will back anything progressive, and neither will any of the more center leaning democrats. Just look at the hoops Obama had to jump through to pass the very conservative Obamacare. This election is about showing the quarter or so of the country who are right leaning but arent brainwashed by Trump that the democrats arent the worst people since Adolf Hitler. So you and @n0el and the rest of the "progressive" left who sit upon the moralistic high horse of "If we can't get a progressive candidate Trump may as well win" need to get the fuck down and realize that this election has real ramifications for people( good bye row vs wade) and the stakes are incredibly high because the chances of Ruth Bader Ginsburg living another 4 years are highly unlikely and if you think that 4 or 8 years of Joe Biden are seriously worse than 40-50 years of a far right leaning supreme court on top of 4 more years of Trump than I would like to genuinely ask you to go fuck yourself.

It's a complicated question. You just listed all of the positives of a Biden presidency. I do agree with all of it and think the possible SC nomination is a particularly big deal, but have you considered the other side? Biden is so far from what your country needs right now I think you should at least seriously ask yourself if an actual good candidate in 4 years may be preferable.

The GOP is very good at being the opposition party. Considering Biden would be both an incredibly weak leader and one that doesn't represent the democratic progressive base, I think staying in office for the full 8 years would be a serious challenge for him and the party. Those are also the reasons he won't win the primary though, to be fair.
One question we need to ask ourselves is: Do we like those odds? If not, then we need to consider if we would rather have a democrat for the next 4 years and a republican for the 8 after, or the other way around.

4 more years of Trump also enable the democratic party to continue the search for its progressive roots. With Biden at the helm, they will be resigned to another 8 years of being GOP lite. On the other side of the isle there's the GOP which, much like the democratic party, is in an identity crisis, and I think that their long term play is to drop Trumpism as soon as possible. Another Trump term removes that possibility for the foreseeable future, and that might be something they can't come back from for a while.

Like n0el said Biden is a band aid and a shitty one at that. And the thing with band aids is that they can result in everyone stopping the search for an actual cure. There's a reason that when you say you can't wait for President Biden, you're getting a "Me too" response from the likes of Amsel.

Having said all that, I would prefer Biden over a second Trump term. I wouldn't blame people for going the other way on that though. I wasn't particularly broken up about the Trump victory in 2016 either, because I imagined it would lay bare many of the America's problems (it has), would pose a problem for the long term future of the GOP (it has) and would enable a real progressive candidate to win in 2020 (they probably are).

Long story short, yes, I would rather have Biden for 4 years even if it means 8 years of marco rubio or whoever the latest gop hot shot is. If Biden wins Ruth Bader Ginsburg will retire and Biden will appoint another Justice. That is a much much much bigger deal than anything else. Having a far right leaning supreme court for the next 40-50 years will do much more damage than anything else possibly could.

I don't think getting one SC nomination is a "bigger deal than anything else". The SC can be biased only to a certain extent, and in the end they make decisions based on laws made by the legislature, which for example has now had the opportunity to fix citizens united for 9 years and still hasn't. And yeah, like n0el mentioned, if dems don't win the senate there's a good chance republicans will block nominations they don't like anyway.

[gibson]

Nah McConnell wont block a nominee if it happens early in the presidency. The only reason why Biden is the best option is because like it or not, he has the best chance of winning vs Trump. If Warren starts doing better, which is a very distinct possibility, she will become the best candidate in my mind. The supreme court can be incredibly biased. Their job is largely interpretation which is why its so important.

[Goodspeed]

Nah McConnell wont block a nominee if it happens early in the presidency. The only reason why Biden is the best option is because like it or not, he has the best chance of winning vs Trump. If Warren starts doing better, which is a very distinct possibility, she will become the best candidate in my mind. The supreme court can be incredibly biased. Their job is largely interpretation which is why its so important.

Oh you actually think Biden is the best option, even?
I don't buy that he has the best chance of winning vs Trump. And even if that is the case, I don't think electability should be the highest priority. Dems are likely to win anyway, imo.

[gibson]

Elect-ability is the highest priority. the Dems were likely to win in 2016 also. This election is huge not only for our country but for our planet as well and it is drastically important that someone who is going to suck the dick of big business isnt elected.

[Goodspeed]

Well what's so magically electable about this old fart who literally says shit like "nothing will change if I'm elected president"? Yeah, that'll definitely get the increasingly apathetic progressives off their asses to vote. I sure as shit would stay home.
If the polls say he has a better chance against Trump than other dem candidates, the polls are wrong.

[n0el]

Elect-ability is the highest priority. the Dems were likely to win in 2016 also. This election is huge not only for our country but for our planet as well and it is drastically important that someone who is going to suck the dick of big business isnt elected.

But yet you think Biden is the right guy......

[gibson]

Well what's so magically electable about this old fart who literally says shit like "nothing will change if I'm elected president"? Yeah, that'll definitely get the increasingly apathetic progressives off their asses to vote. I sure as shit would stay home.
If the polls say he has a better chance against Trump than other dem candidates, the polls are wrong.

Whats so electable about the guy who was vp to the most progressive president in US history

[Amsel_]

McConnell: Good morning, President Biden. Your inauguration was beautiful.
Biden: Thanks. Oh, and by the way, I'm sure you've heard of Justice Ginsberg's retirement. Here's my nominee.
McConnell: Excellent. But we're a bit busy so it might take some time

*one year later*

Biden: McConnell, it's been a year. We can't have an eight man Supreme Court forever, you know.
McConnell: Well, it's an election year. We need to wait until after the election, so that the people can have a voice in the supreme court decision.

*one year later*

Biden: So the election's over.
McConnell: Yeah, wasn't that a blast? I never thought I'd have a 60 seat majority!
Biden: And the supreme court vacancy?
McConnell: Sorry, we just found out that your nominee wasn't a member of the federalist society. We need to investigate this.

*one year later*

Biden: Look, I just found this paper proving he attended a federalist society fundraiser in law school. Are you going to confirm him now? We need to fill this vacancy quickly, Justice Breyer just had a stroke, and I don't think a 7 man supreme court will work well.
McConnell: Sorry, it's an election year.

*one recession later*

McConnell: Good morning, President Cruz. Your inauguration was beautiful.
Cruz: Thanks. Oh, and by the way, I'm sure you've heard of Thomas' retirement. Here are my three nominees.
McConnell: Amy Barrett, Mike Lee, and Kris Kobach? Excellent, we'll have them sworn in by next week.

[n0el]

Well what's so magically electable about this old fart who literally says shit like "nothing will change if I'm elected president"? Yeah, that'll definitely get the increasingly apathetic progressives off their asses to vote. I sure as shit would stay home.
If the polls say he has a better chance against Trump than other dem candidates, the polls are wrong.

Whats so electable about the guy who was vp to the most progressive president in US history

Have you heard of FDR? or Lyndon Johnson?

[Amsel_]

2022 is the only chance dems have to win the Senate for a generation. A Biden win essentially precludes that.

the guy who was vp to the most progressive president in US history

Are you talking about Garner, Wallace, or Truman?

[gibson]

Well what's so magically electable about this old fart who literally says shit like "nothing will change if I'm elected president"? Yeah, that'll definitely get the increasingly apathetic progressives off their asses to vote. I sure as shit would stay home.
If the polls say he has a better chance against Trump than other dem candidates, the polls are wrong.

Whats so electable about the guy who was vp to the most progressive president in US history

Have you heard of FDR? of Lyndon Johnson?

Have you heard or Barack Obama?

[n0el]

Yes, he was a good president, but far from a true progressive. Other than ACA, he really did nothing.

[gibson]

So what do you think he could have done given that he had to make concessions on ACA to even get all of his own party on board?

[Goodspeed]

Oh he was a progressive alright. Definitely not FDR levels of progressive though.

[n0el]

So what do you think he could have done given that he had to make concessions on ACA to even get all of his own party on board?

Read this. It explains very clearly many great things that can be done without Congress, using existing laws.

https://prospect.org/day-one-agenda/usi ... authority/