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United States of America occamslightsaber
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by occamslightsaber »

Dolan wrote:
n0el wrote:Cant wait for 15 years from now when there’s a major Kurdish terror attack in the US, and all the media pundits are saying it’s because they hate freedom and our lifestyles, not that we betrayed them and led them to a genocide.
>betrayed

But why would the US have any obligation to defend Kurds? What did they ever do to help the US? What could possibly be so important for the US to sink tens of billions into defending some Middle Eastern ethnic group?

Didn't you agree with the idea that the US needs to stop policing the world?
Hmm... could it be that the US is... allied with the Kurds, who have been providing most of the ground force to fight ISIS in Syria? It is expected of the US to extend its diplomatic cover and deterrence to those proxies fighting on its behalf. Why would anyone side with the US if it doesn’t guarantee their safety?

There is a notion in security studies called the “interdependence of commitments”, meaning that US commitment to one ally matters to US allies elsewhere. Naturally, America’s allies become nervous and wonder what will happen to them when the US suddenly abandons one of its partners to die (although I doubt the Turks will actually commit a genocide like others have said). Trump’s willingness to throw one ally under the bus has already been noted around the world and may hurt America’s effort to recruit allies in the future.

The US is sinking billions in the Middle East to stabilize the region because its refugee flow to Europe has undermined the goal of European integration, which is in US interest to balance a resurgent Russia. The Turkish offensive so far has further destabilized the region and allowed high value ISIS detainees to escape. It’s one thing for the US to stop trying to police the world and another to drop all its responsibilities and fuck off at the expense of national interest.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Goodspeed »

The US can always play the "well that was just Trump shenanigans" card, when others question their commitment in the future. Basically everyone in the US was against this move so it's hard to hold it against the country as a whole, right?
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Dolan »

occamslightsaber wrote:Hmm... could it be that the US is... allied with the Kurds, who have been providing most of the ground force to fight ISIS in Syria? It is expected of the US to extend its diplomatic cover and deterrence to those proxies fighting on its behalf. Why would anyone side with the US if it doesn’t guarantee their safety?
Because the war on land against ISIS is over. The calliphate has been dismantled, it doesn't hold any significant or strategic extent of land. And nobody closed any treaty with the Kurds, I don't remember the US signing any alliance treaty with them. If they were allies at any point, they were temporary allies and the US doesn't have any perpetual obligations to them, especially since no treaty was ever signed.
There is a notion in security studies called the “interdependence of commitments”, meaning that US commitment to one ally matters to US allies elsewhere. Naturally, America’s allies become nervous and wonder what will happen to them when the US suddenly abandons one of its partners to die (although I doubt the Turks will actually commit a genocide like others have said). Trump’s willingness to throw one ally under the bus has already been noted around the world and may hurt America’s effort to recruit allies in the future.
Well, that's a risk that the current administration has considered is worth taking. After all, Trump promised he would go against this school of thought that is widely shared by experts, which says your diplomacy and policy should always be predictable, a few steps ahead. He wants his policy to become more and more unpredictable, so that other players in the geopolitical game cannot discount your decisions in advance, thus holding you hostage to your own commitments.
I'm not necessarily defending this idea, but what Trump is doing is logically consistent with his electoral pledges. He promised he'd pull out of foreign wars that cost the taxpayer too much and achieve nothing for the US and that's what he's been doing.
The US is sinking billions in the Middle East to stabilize the region because its refugee flow to Europe has undermined the goal of European integration, which is in US interest to balance a resurgent Russia. The Turkish offensive so far has further destabilized the region and allowed high value ISIS detainees to escape. It’s one thing for the US to stop trying to police the world and another to drop all its responsibilities and fuck off at the expense of national interest.
Haha, lolwut. The US is sinking billions in the Middle East for Europe's sake? :lol: Wow, so much altruism in global politics. The US didn't get involved in the Middle East for one single reason, it's part of a long-term policy of containing Russia, indeed, but it's not a policy with one single objective. You also got involved because you wanted to ensure Israel's security against Iranian threats. As well as access to oil fields for American companies, like Haliburton. And containing Iran. And making sure you gradually subdue all of Russia's former Soviet influence in the region. And that you get closer to both Russia and China, establish strategic outposts in these Middle Eastern countries, in order to encircle Russia and China from a military point of view. Too bad it all blew to pieces. Despite W Bush's efforts to turn Iraq in a democracy, it actually looks more like a democrazy today. Egypt is anonther point of failure. Lybia, yet another. Syria was basically abandoned, because Russia won.
Where is the concern for Europe in all of this? Where was this uppermost concern for Europe when the Obama administration funded the Syrian opposition groups, armed and trained them to start the civil war in Syria, hoping that Assad would be removed? What was the aftermath of that US support given to the Syrian opposition? A few millions of migrants from the Middle East pouring in across Europe's borders, which eventually led to a resurgence of far right parties.

And in fact that's what's going to happen if more refugees come to Europe. Currently far right parties have only made some gains here and there, occasionally being coopted in coalition governments. But if Middle Eastern migrants start coming in again in large waves in Europe, the political picture will change. We will see far right parties rising to a far higher degree in Europe than until now. And there's no telling what they could do. For example, they could choose to basically expel all migrants that came during the 2015 crisis and afterwards. Maybe that's what Trump actually wants. He wants to force Europe to toughen up its stance on migration and close borders. And if they don't, then a new wave of migrants from the Middle East will achieve just that, since that would boost far right parties even more than it previously did.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

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Post by Goodspeed »

Yeah Trump's interests =/= US national interest. I don't think he wants a stable Europe even if the US might. This move helps Russia, Turkey, far right parties in the EU, etc. Fits perfectly with Trump, who loves authoritarian regimes and wants to destabilize everything, including the US itself.

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

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:love: :love: :love:

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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Goodspeed »

:hmm:
If Biden picks him for VP, I might actually not even mind Biden winning the nomination. The hope would be that Biden steps down in 2024 due to old age and Pete is president for the 8 years after.
Biden's not gonna win though.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Amsel_ »

@Goodspeed And what's the long-term goal? Are we going to occupy Syria, a sovereign country, forever? Are we going to strip them of land unilaterally? During the Ukraine crisis, Russia repeatedly pointed to what NATO did in Kosovo, and said that what they were doing was similar. So how the hell are we ever going to say "No" to aggression by Russia or anyone else, if we are single-handily propping up a nation too weak to exist on its own? I just have to ask what your long-term vision for Syria is, beyond complaining about us not giving the Kurds free security.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Googol »

Amsel_ wrote:@n0el @Googol It's not a genocide. The Turks are only securing a 38 mile border region, and the U.S. has already prepared sanctions against Turkey in case they misbehave. You're going to forget about this in like two weeks, like every other time the media told you to overreact to something Trump did. Remember net neutrality? Remember how we "gave North Korea everything they want" during the denuclearization summits? Remember how the border issue was a "manufactured crisis?" Remember how Trump lied about Obama spying on him?

Why do you keep doing this over and over again? It can't be healthy.
The Turks don't have in particular a good history about preventing ethnic cleansings don't they ? Although I genuinely hope that it's just about the securement of that border region you are talking about.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by fightinfrenchman »

Amsel_ wrote:@n0el @Googol It's not a genocide. The Turks are only securing a 38 mile border region, and the U.S. has already prepared sanctions against Turkey in case they misbehave. You're going to forget about this in like two weeks, like every other time the media told you to overreact to something Trump did. Remember net neutrality? Remember how we "gave North Korea everything they want" during the denuclearization summits? Remember how the border issue was a "manufactured crisis?" Remember how Trump lied about Obama spying on him?

Why do you keep doing this over and over again? It can't be healthy.
This post does a great job encapsulating Trumpism: nothing he does matters, as long as the libs are owned
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Goodspeed »

Amsel_ wrote:@Goodspeed And what's the long-term goal? Are we going to occupy Syria, a sovereign country, forever? Are we going to strip them of land unilaterally? During the Ukraine crisis, Russia repeatedly pointed to what NATO did in Kosovo, and said that what they were doing was similar. So how the hell are we ever going to say "No" to aggression by Russia or anyone else, if we are single-handily propping up a nation too weak to exist on its own? I just have to ask what your long-term vision for Syria is, beyond complaining about us not giving the Kurds free security.
The long term plan would be stabilizing the region to the point where if you pull out, it doesn't instantly become a mess again. And then pull out.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by occamslightsaber »

Dolan wrote:Because the war on land against ISIS is over. The calliphate has been dismantled, it doesn't hold any significant or strategic extent of land. And nobody closed any treaty with the Kurds, I don't remember the US signing any alliance treaty with them. If they were allies at any point, they were temporary allies and the US doesn't have any perpetual obligations to them, especially since no treaty was ever signed.
No, the Kurds aren’t treaty allies, but treaties alone don’t make allies. The US military has not yet declared the ISIS threat to be entirely removed, since there are more than 10,000 of their fighters still active in the field who are now joined by escaped detainees. Even after ISIS is fully defeated, the US can use the Kurds to curtail the Iranian influence in Syria, so the US still has a very good reason to keep the Kurds as allies for the foreseeable future.
Dolan wrote:Well, that's a risk that the current administration has considered is worth taking. After all, Trump promised he would go against this school of thought that is widely shared by experts, which says your diplomacy and policy should always be predictable, a few steps ahead. He wants his policy to become more and more impredictable, so that other players in the geopolitical game cannot discount your decisions in advance, thus holding you hostage to your own commitments.
I'm not necessarily defending this idea, but what Trump is doing is logically consistent with his electoral pledges. He promised he'd pull out of foreign wars that cost the taxpayer too much and achieve nothing for the US and that's what he's been doing.
American policymakers want US foreign policy to be predictable and clear cut for everyone else in order to minimize the risk of miscalculation. US deterrence posture around the world relies on not just US military capability, but also on the fact that other countries understand what key US interests are and therefore know what redlines not to cross. Trump is making the world more conflict-prone by casting doubt on US credibility with his “unpredictability” and undermining US deterrence posture. It has nothing to do with the US being held hostage to its commitments. Trump claims that his motive is political to fulfill his campaign promises, but if that’s the case it has backfired severely, seeing how he is being roundly criticized by Democrats and Republicans alike.
Dolan wrote:Haha, lolwut. The US is sinking billions in the Middle East for Europe's sake? :lol: Wow, so much altruism in global politics. The US didn't get involved in the Middle East for one single reason, it's part of a long-term policy of containing Russia, indeed, but it's not a policy with one single objective. You also got involved because you wanted to ensure Israel's security against Iranian threats. As well as access to oil fields for American companies, like Haliburton. And containing Iran. And making sure you gradually subdue all of Russia's former Soviet influence in the region. And that you get closer to both Russia and China, establish strategic outposts in these Middle Eastern countries, in order to encircle Russia and China from a military point of view. Too bad it all blew to pieces. Despite W Bush's efforts to turn Iraq in a democracy, it actually looks more like a democrazy today. Egypt is anonther point of failure. Lybia, yet another. Syria was basically abandoned, because Russia won.
Where is the concern for Europe in all of this? Where was this uppermost concern for Europe when the Obama administration funded the Syrian opposition groups, armed and trained them to start the civil war in Syria, hoping that Assad would be removed? What was the aftermath of that US support given to the Syrian opposition? A few millions of migrants from the Middle East pouring in across Europe's borders, which eventually led to a resurgence of far right parties.
I literally said European integration is in US interest to balance a resurgent Russia. Tell me, what part of that sounds altruistic to you?

Also, most of the reasons you listed for US involvement in the Middle East are either minor or flat out wrong. Russia had little to no influence left in the region after the Soviet Union collapsed, so you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about. The US isn’t even very concerned about the spread of Russian influence now, because it is mostly limited to Syria and even there Moscow is competing with Tehran over the Assad regime. The only real concern was that the Russian incursion prolonged the Syrian Civil War and exacerbated the refugee crisis, which like I said set back the plans for European integration to check Russia. Plus, the US didn’t “start” the civil war in Syria. In fact, Obama refused to be directly involved like in Libya and only armed the rebels to fight Assad. And this was all before the refugee crisis began in earnest with the Russian intervention in 2015, so the US had no idea how the civil war would impact Europe. And sure, Russia and Assad “won” the civil war, although a sizable chunk is still under Kurdish control and the Syrian government is fighting Turkish-led forces as we speak.

As for all the other “reasons” you brought up for US involvement in the Middle East, no, the US isn’t very worried about Iran attacking Israel because of the sheer distance between the two, not to mention that Israel is strong enough to defeat Iranian proxies. Contrary to popular belief, oil was not one of the main reasons why the US invaded Iraq, if at all; otherwise the US wouldn’t be the biggest producer of oil today. The US is interested in maintaining stable global oil supply from the Middle East, but this has been the case for half a century. It’s also ridiculous that you think the US wants bases in the Middle East to contain Russia and China, when the US is doing precisely the opposite to redeploy forces in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Despite the protests and setbacks, Iraq has made long strides to stabilize itself since 2003 and it’s too early to tell if its democratic experiment is a failure. Egypt is still an American ally and hardly the first autocratic one. Libya is a cesspool, but that doesn’t matter since it’s hardly a key US interest.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Amsel_ »

Googol wrote:The Turks don't have in particular a good history about preventing ethnic cleansings don't they ?
Hey there, now. It's very racist of you to blame all Turks for past ethnic cleansing.
fightinfrenchman wrote:This post does a great job encapsulating Trumpism: nothing he does matters, as long as the libs are owned
Your political beliefs are based entirely off of what makes orange man the most bad.
Goodspeed wrote:The long term plan would be stabilizing the region to the point where if you pull out, it doesn't instantly become a mess again. And then pull out.
Do you plan to carve out a chunk of Syria? Would you go to war with Turkey and Syria to do this?
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by occamslightsaber »

Amsel_ wrote:Do you plan to carve out a chunk of Syria? Would you go to war with Turkey and Syria to do this?
Doesn’t matter now, since the US no longer has any presence in Syria. The Kurds are allied with the Syrian government from this point on. I’m not sure how well Assad and the Kurds would do against the Turks though and I doubt the Russians will help directly. Most likely that the Turks will secure their buffer and the Syrians and the Kurds will just have to live with it.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Googol »

Amsel_ wrote:
Googol wrote:The Turks don't have in particular a good history about preventing ethnic cleansings don't they ?
Hey there, now. It's very racist of you to blame all Turks for past ethnic cleansing.
fightinfrenchman wrote:This post does a great job encapsulating Trumpism: nothing he does matters, as long as the libs are owned
Your political beliefs are based entirely off of what makes orange man the most bad.
Goodspeed wrote:The long term plan would be stabilizing the region to the point where if you pull out, it doesn't instantly become a mess again. And then pull out.
Do you plan to carve out a chunk of Syria? Would you go to war with Turkey and Syria to do this?
It does not matter nor should bother me, what do you think how my statement sounded like. Armenian genocide is a still recent thing, up to 1.5 million armenians were killed. That would be about 50% of their todays population (Of the Country itself, there are more Armenians living outside the country). If the Kurds feel that their existence is threatened by the Turks, we should not take it lightly. Im not saying that young Americans have to go and fight and possibly die for every conflict that occurs in the world, but considering you fought alongisde these people against the terrorists for a better place and a more stable middle east, to me this is an act of dishonor. Especially if America could destroy Turkey economically very easily, without even firing a shot. They were your allies in the conflict, it would be atleast nice to guarantee their right to live, or to help them secure their own homeland a safe one.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Amsel_ »

Googol wrote:
Amsel_ wrote:
Googol wrote:The Turks don't have in particular a good history about preventing ethnic cleansings don't they ?
Hey there, now. It's very racist of you to blame all Turks for past ethnic cleansing.
fightinfrenchman wrote:This post does a great job encapsulating Trumpism: nothing he does matters, as long as the libs are owned
Your political beliefs are based entirely off of what makes orange man the most bad.
Goodspeed wrote:The long term plan would be stabilizing the region to the point where if you pull out, it doesn't instantly become a mess again. And then pull out.
Do you plan to carve out a chunk of Syria? Would you go to war with Turkey and Syria to do this?
It does not matter nor should bother me, what do you think how my statement sounded like. Armenian genocide is a still recent thing, up to 1.5 million armenians were killed. That would be about 50% of their todays population (Of the Country itself, there are more Armenians living outside the country). If the Kurds feel that their existence is threatened by the Turks, we should not take it lightly. Im not saying that young Americans have to go and fight and possibly die for every conflict that occurs in the world, but considering you fought alongisde these people against the terrorists for a better place and a more stable middle east, to me this is an act of dishonor. Especially if America could destroy Turkey economically very easily, without even firing a shot. They were your allies in the conflict, it would be atleast nice to guarantee their right to live, or to help them secure their own homeland a safe one.
And I agree with you. If Turkey commits large-scale human rights abuses, sanctions are in order. Trump agrees with you too.

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Googol »

Amsel_ wrote:
Googol wrote:
Show hidden quotes
It does not matter nor should bother me, what do you think how my statement sounded like. Armenian genocide is a still recent thing, up to 1.5 million armenians were killed. That would be about 50% of their todays population (Of the Country itself, there are more Armenians living outside the country). If the Kurds feel that their existence is threatened by the Turks, we should not take it lightly. Im not saying that young Americans have to go and fight and possibly die for every conflict that occurs in the world, but considering you fought alongisde these people against the terrorists for a better place and a more stable middle east, to me this is an act of dishonor. Especially if America could destroy Turkey economically very easily, without even firing a shot. They were your allies in the conflict, it would be atleast nice to guarantee their right to live, or to help them secure their own homeland a safe one.
And I agree with you. If Turkey commits large-scale human rights abuses, sanctions are in order. Trump agrees with you too.

In that case, let us hope he will fulfill his promise, if god forbid, these things happen.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by n0el »

Dolan wrote:
n0el wrote:Cant wait for 15 years from now when there’s a major Kurdish terror attack in the US, and all the media pundits are saying it’s because they hate freedom and our lifestyles, not that we betrayed them and led them to a genocide.
>betrayed

But why would the US have any obligation to defend Kurds? What did they ever do to help the US? What could possibly be so important for the US to sink tens of billions into defending some Middle Eastern ethnic group?

Didn't you agree with the idea that the US needs to stop policing the world?
Theres a difference between policing the world and sending your ally to the slaughter house. We could have left and told Turkey to stay the fuck out of a northern Syria. Instead we got our and said do whatever you want.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by spanky4ever »

@n0el you nailed it. Big difference indeed :devilrazz:
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Goodspeed »

Amsel_ wrote:Do you plan to carve out a chunk of Syria? Would you go to war with Turkey and Syria to do this?
As the US? No? I don't think that would help my plan of stabilizing the region...
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Dolan »

n0el wrote:Theres a difference between policing the world and sending your ally to the slaughter house. We could have left and told Turkey to stay the fuck out of a northern Syria. Instead we got our and said do whatever you want.
1. Is there any official document by which Kurds were declared allies in perpetuity which makes the US responsible with their security? They were just a temporary helping faction in the war against ISIS. And that war is over. Hence the US has no further obligation to anyone in the region.

2. Telling Turkey to do something is pretty much policing the region. You still basically want Super Saiyan USA to keep order in that region on your expense.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by spanky4ever »

There is no doubt that the Kurds were the boots on the ground, fighting ISIS. I also strongly feel that there was at least, a gentleman's agreement that the Kurds and USA, and Syria were allies in defeating terrorists in Syria. The Kurds on the border to Tyrkia has, as far as I can judge, NEVER imposed any threat to Tyrkia.
I know, one should not expect Trump to display any Gentlemen's behaviour - he would not know anything about words like that. But still, some of us do see this, in fact, most of the ppl of USA and Europa sees it like a betrail.
I think this will have very big consequences in the future, NOT TO TRUST ANYTHING COMING FROM the USA, not their gentlemen's agreements, and not any written agreements eighter.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by Riotcoke »

Kurds should have their own land, including part of turkey.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by spanky4ever »

Riotcoke wrote:Kurds should have their own land, including part of turkey.
I actually agree with you :shock:
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by spanky4ever »

Bernie is finally talking about the differences between himself and Warrens politics. I'm super excited about THAT.


Looking forward to the Democrat debating, tomorrow night :hehe:

Btw, this new youtube channel "rising" from The Hill, is quite new and has only 115k subs thus far, but it grows with 10k each week. Soon it will be a big thing, I think, and even surpass TYT with its 4,5 million subscribers.
I highly recommend this channel :love:
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Post by occamslightsaber »

iwillspankyou wrote:Bernie is finally talking about the differences between himself and Warrens politics. I'm super excited about THAT.


Looking forward to the Democrat debating, tomorrow night :hehe:

Btw, this new youtube channel "rising" from The Hill, is quite new and has only 115k subs thus far, but it grows with 10k each week. Soon it will be a big thing, I think, and even surpass TYT with its 4,5 million subscribers.
I highly recommend this channel :love:
I’m sold.

Mostly because that lady’s name is Krystal Ball. :hehe: :hehe:
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