US Politics Megathread

[n0el]

Biden is actively trying to lose Michigan. I cannot believe he’s promoting a Snyder endorsement. Disgusting.

Tbf, Snyder was well loved by Republicans and he wrote a rather scathing piece against Trump a few days ago.

That may be true but the entire city of flint hates him for poisoning them and their children, pretty important place to turn out the vote.

[Goodspeed]

It's a trade. Lose some, gain some. But Flint is 1% of the population, so he's not losing that many votes over it.

[fightinfrenchman]

It's a trade. Lose some, gain some. But Flint is 1% of the population, so he's not losing that many votes over it.

Hillary lost Michigan by .23%, about 10k votes

[Amsel_]

I wonder how things are going in the Bloomberg (pbuh) timeline.

We'd be two months away from president elect mike bloomberg.

[n0el]

It's a trade. Lose some, gain some. But Flint is 1% of the population, so he's not losing that many votes over it.

Hillary underperformed Obama by 38000 votes in flint, enough to swing the state.

[Riotcoke]

Why isn't Micheal Moore running, he bitches about everything surely he'd make an amazing president!

[knusch]

Why isn't Micheal Moore running, he bitches about everything surely he'd make an amazing president!

the man hasn't run for decades...

[Goodspeed]

It's a trade. Lose some, gain some. But Flint is 1% of the population, so he's not losing that many votes over it.

Hillary lost Michigan by .23%, about 10k votes

Irrelevant? Did you miss the "lose some, gain some" part?
If you do something that potentially alienates 1% of the pop and potentially wins votes from the other 99%, how is that necessarily a bad move?

[Goodspeed]

It's a trade. Lose some, gain some. But Flint is 1% of the population, so he's not losing that many votes over it.

Hillary underperformed Obama by 38000 votes in flint, enough to swing the state.

Sigh how did you both come up with the same irrelevant point?

[Goodspeed]

100 people. 49 of them like apples, 50 are indifferent and 1 dislikes apples. You can either give all of them an apple or none of them.
What do you do?

[007Salt]

You tell the one person who doesn't like apples to conform or else.

[n0el]

It's a trade. Lose some, gain some. But Flint is 1% of the population, so he's not losing that many votes over it.

Hillary underperformed Obama by 38000 votes in flint, enough to swing the state.

Sigh how did you both come up with the same irrelevant point?

Well, I think it’s a bad strategy to alienate safe votes that give you a proven path to victory in order to maybe get some votes that may or not exist.

[Goodspeed]

"Proven". Nothing is proven, it's all just maximizing odds. I assume it polled well.

[n0el]

"Proven". Nothing is proven, it's all just maximizing odds. I assume it polled well.

Okay, historically proven. Whitmer in 2018 ran up the numbers in the inner cities like Obama, and crushed. Why would you change the strategy for optics? I can assure you that Snyder is cancer to inner city people in Michigan.

[Goodspeed]

You're awfully confident for someone who doesn't have access to the mountains of data the campaign has access to. Campaigns tend not to make decisions like this willy nilly

[n0el]

You're awfully confident for someone who doesn't have access to the mountains of data the campaign has access to. Campaigns tend not to make decisions like this willy nilly

Campaign data said Clinton had Michigan and Wisconsin in the bag in 2016. I’d rather trust actual election results.

[Goodspeed]

... from another year. Yeah it's a bit arrogant to think you know better than the campaign but you're entitled to an opinion I guess.

[n0el]

Ofc it’s my opinion based on available evidence. The reason we are in this position is over-reliance in polling. I don’t think 4 years changed that. Either way, I’d be willing to bet a substantial amount of money that accepting Snyder’s endorsement has no specific polling data to support it.

[wardyb1]

In memory of

[spanky4ever]

China is selling off US tresurey bonds - for 3 straight months in a row. You might not have heard about it?
http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-reduce ... -1.1153421

what does it mean though?
Full economic war? or is it that the trust in US dollar is at a bottom low? I mean, who can blame other nations for dumping dollars, when the FED just keeps printing them "out of thin air - like there is no tomorrow" and it seems to be the only option they have to not let the economic plummit down in to a rabbit hole. What is so stupid about this, is that all the money goes it to the stockmarked, and not supporting the consumers who could actually upheld the value of the stocks. No consumers, no value - EZ as that. it is all an artificual stimulus that will not last - even though Trump keeps on pumping the mantra that US eco is "booming". Most ppl do not feel it!"

[spanky4ever]

How is this important to the election?
2 things
1.Trump is desperat, trying to uphold the idea that US eco is "da best ever"
2.Biden, if he win the election, will inherent a disaster when it comes to the eco, and struggle to bring it back to some kind of level between input and output.
Yeah - heard this story before - have we not?

[Dolan]

China divesting itself of US bonds is a move that goes beyond any particular figure being in the White house. After the 2008 financial bloodbath, both China and Russia made a pact they will slowly but gradually replace the dollar in their international transactions. This can't be done too fast, or else it could backfire against them.
The world is still awash in dollars and lots of big banks still need dollars just to be able to trade stuff or service older credits.

This is a big discussion with lots of variables, not sure it's worth having here. Just wanted to point out that this goes way beyond whoever might be US president, it will have a big impact on how the international system and order work. A world in which the dollar carries less weight will be a world in which US influence will be much more reduced, compared to now. This has both some advantages and disadvantages for the US, actually having your currency accepted as a reserve and global trading currency forces you to always have a trade deficit with the rest of the world. And the Fed needs to honour its commitment to keep supplying the world with dollars.

If the dollar recedes from global exchanges, other currencies need to fill that void (and to start running a trade deficit with the others). Otherwise, this could lead to a reduction in global trade due to lack of means of exchange. I think China will try to assert its own currency as a means of exchange, at least in bilateral trade, for a start. Same for Russia. The Euro is already the 2nd reserve currency of the world, but it doesn't have as much influence in trade, because oil trading is done in dollars. If an oil exchange is established in euros too... there will be a lot of fretting in Washington.

[Dolan]

Also @spanky4ever even if all countries and banks who hold US debt sold it, it wouldn't be the end of the world. The biggest holders of US debt are their own investment funds, pensions funds, primary dealer banks, etc.
It would force the USA to maybe cut its deficit, if their internal market is unable to absorb that surplus that the rest of the world would be unwilling to buy anymore.
That could mean less money for the military or cutting other expenses to keep the military funded. Big crisis looming ahead for the USA if external buyers of its debt start throwing it overboard.

PS. Though some ppl like Amsel have a different take on this. I believe he thinks the US government has no limit whatsoever on spending (the legal ceiling on spending is just a political sideshow for the congress to make a big fuss about that decision) and the Fed is just a cashflow/inflation manager.

[fedjahnson]

@Dolan the holders of the most US debt are private investors.

[duckzilla]

@Dolan the holders of the most US debt are private investors.

Who might have an incentive to keep the US stable in order to avoid shockwaves destroying the world economy and, thereby, their further investments.