US Politics Megathread

[iNcog]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

when did Ohio get so red smh

[Cometk]

i've seen enough

[harcha]

rofl how is usa real

[Dolan]

how israel

[iNcog]

i've seen enough

wym

[fightinfrenchman]

I love being important

[Cometk]

i've seen enough

wym

lock 100% for democratic party, but i'll be technically prudent and save my guessthechance for september till the end of the month

[Goodspeed]

ESOC's august predictions on the chance of Harris winning.



Looks like everyone is rather optimistic about her chances. Our average guess is 69%, which is about 20% higher than https://electionbettingodds.com/

@Dolan Where's your number?

[Dolan]

I wouldn't play this game. This is not a game to me. I'm not looking to get any points out of it.
I'll just say what I have to say when the time comes

[harcha]

i say 56%

[Goodspeed]

i say 56%

https://guessthechance.com/

[Quanghieupham97]

Did you know that for importing/exporting guns in the USA, you need a lot of permits? It's not as easy as people might think.
And it's so tough, that you need to get yourself a consultant in these matters, like Corporate Investigation Consulting.

[fightinfrenchman]

Did you know that for importing/exporting guns in the USA, you need a lot of permits? It's not as easy as people might think.

What are you planning exactly

[spanky4ever]

Have you seen the new add from Kamala et co, on project 25?
Funny stuff

[iNcog]

Did you know that for importing/exporting guns in the USA, you need a lot of permits? It's not as easy as people might think.

I don't think guns going across customs is the real issue here.

[Dolan]

finally they lock her up

[Dolan]

[fightinfrenchman]

This is Not Good for the world

[Goodspeed]

Thank you @callentournies and @Goodspeed for the comments and questions. I apologize for the slow response;

I'm not saying you owe me a response, but you kind of implied here that your post that followed was a response and you seem to have left it at that, so just to be clear: It wasn't.

The question I would most like an answer to is:

I wasn't expecting us to basically agree on who and what Trump is. I obviously have a very low opinion of him, but so, it seems, do you. Most striking about that, to me, is the implication that you think a democrat would be even worse. Care to explain why you think a democrat would be that bad?

[Misha]

You're right, I lost track of our conversation. Please answer this question from my previous post: during the Obama administration, a dossier containing anti-Trump slander, funded by the Clinton campaign, was used to initiate a federal investigation into Trump associates. Do you agree that this occurred and is an "attack on democracy'"? For me, this is a litmus test of reasonableness, though I don't expect you to equate this with Trump's actions.

Here some of the reasons I will vote for Trump:

1. As a conservative who supports federalism, there’s no limit to how far the Democratic Party would expand the federal government if given the chance. From smaller issues like school lunches to major policies like healthcare, I’ve rarely, if ever, heard Democrats argue that a matter ought to be "left to the states'"—and I’ve lived in blue areas my entire life. The only possible exception might be marijuana legalization. Presumably EU citizens can appreciate federalism as they likely do not want their states to cede all authority to the central government. I believe the federal government's primary purpose is to (1) protect individual rights, (2) direct foreign policy, and (3) regulate interstate commerce (though I disagree with the broad interpretation of interstate commerce set forth by Wickard v. Filburn). The goal of our Constitution is to constrain the federal government. This is the model of government inspired by the values of philosophers such as Locke and Hobbes, and America is unique in this sense amongst all nations. In contrast, today, democrats are more aligned with philosophers like Rousseau. I agree with much of R. J. Rummel's article "The American Vs. French Revolutions: A Freedomist Interpretation." I suppose this is why I occasionally post here; it's a bit irritating that a thread on US politics has hardly any conservative representation.

2. I strongly dislike the foreign policy of the Obama and Biden administrations, and it would continue under Harris. In my view, the democratic leadership has forgotten the principle of "si vis pacem para bellum," or said Reagan's way, "peace through strength." Take the Iran deal: many democrats believed Iran would moderate if we engaged with them and lifted sanctions. The ayatollahs will never moderate, it's as naive as Neville Chamberlain's stance in 1938. Even if Iran hadn't secretly continued its nuclear program, the deal made the country much wealthier, and they now fund terrorism throughout the middle east. Obama unfreezing 150 billion USD in Iranian assets and Biden (attempting) to pay six billion for five hostages is foolish. I am truly disgusted by the way in which the US withdrew from Afghanistan, leaving behind to the Taliban thousands of American citizens and Iraqi collaborators and billions in military equipment. I prefer the foreign policy of the administration that helped Ukraine with weaponry, killed Russian mercenaries in Syria, and sanctioned NordStream 2 prior to the recent invasion of Ukraine.

3. Republicans have the better economic policy. According to a CNBC survey last month, two thirds of Americans agree with me. Harris' communist proposal to cap grocery prices doesn't combat the root causes of inflation and could have disastrous unintended consequences, e.g. driving small farmers out of business. Additionally, it's simply authoritarian.

Ultimately, Harris is a radical who was one of the most far-left senators. In 2019, during her primary campaign, she promised to provide healthcare to illegal immigrants. Since then, under the Biden-Harris administration, seven million illegal immigrants have entered the country. Now, Harris has the audacity to release a campaign video claiming she's tough on the border, featuring clips of the Trump border wall.

[Goodspeed]

Please answer this question from my previous post: during the Obama administration, a dossier containing anti-Trump slander, funded by the Clinton campaign, was used to initiate a federal investigation into Trump associates. Do you agree that this occurred and is an "attack on democracy'"? For me, this is a litmus test of reasonableness, though I don't expect you to equate this with Trump's actions.

Your entire post was a direct response solely to the article Callen linked, not to my post, so I didn't think you were asking me that question. Anyway, I don't know anything about this, so I can't say if it was an attack on democracy. I don't see how it's relevant to any points I made, so I'm not inclined to spend time looking into it. If you think it is relevant, maybe you can help me see why?

From your post, I gather your main gripe with democrats is that they are the party of big(ger) government. While true, I would challenge the extent of this, especially considering you said there's "no limit" to how much democrats would expand government if given the chance. With this, you are implying that democrats are communists, and this is false. I agree that communism is probably the single most damaging political idea of the last few centuries but it has long been off the table, and is all but irrelevant in Western politics nowadays. So, in short, if you're voting republican in part to keep the communists from gaining power, I would simply say: Democrats are not communists, and their political ideology is not even related to communism. Everyone in American politics is a capitalist. The way I see it, the main difference between the parties is in what they think the role of government should be in a capitalist economy.

Would you say the free market, when left alone, leads to the fairest possible distribution of wealth?

Also, a bit of a side note, but would you say this plan would increase or decrease the power of the federal government?

[Misha]

Well, given that your concerns about Trump seem to center on his perceived threats to democracy, I'd appreciate if you were willing to admit this was an "attack on democracy" by the Obama administration and Clinton campaign. If we stipulate my claim, that "a dossier containing anti-Trump slander, funded by the Clinton campaign, was used to initiate a federal investigation into Trump associates," would you agree or disagree? This claim can be verified in a few minutes by reading Wikipedia's "Steele dossier" page.

Yes, Democrats are the party of big government. Classical liberals like Bill Maher who are as much concerned with protection of free speech as conservatives are rare now. I do not believe nor did I claim that democrats are full communists ("no limit" is clearly slight hyperbole). That said, far-left members of the party such as Harris often propose policies I consider communist, such as nationalizing healthcare or capping food prices. A "fair" distribution of wealth is not important to me? I am concerned with my family and community's standard of living and policies that will raise it, not with the number of zeros in others' bank accounts. When Obama was asked in 2008 if he would raise capital gains taxes even if it reduced federal revenue, he replied yes, "for purposes of fairness." I disagree very much with this sentiment. I don't object to the existence of entities such as the SEC but believe that a mostly Laissez-faire policy is the best for the overwhelming majority of Americans, from all economic classes.

I am not inclined to look into "Project 2025" when Trump "disavowed" it (NBC, NPR); it is more meaningful to me to compare the Trump and Biden administrations. That said, if you think it is important I will. We both likely feel that the other has not properly engaged with their arguments and only selectively replied to a few points.

[Dolan]

This is Not Good for the world

How dare the world not do the good thing for itself

[fightinfrenchman]

I am not inclined to look into "Project 2025" when Trump "disavowed" it (NBC, NPR);

Can you link to these citations

[Misha]

There are 30,000 hits on google for the exact phrase "Trump disavows project 2025." Of course, one can argue he is lying or still linked to the project, but he did very publicly distance himself from it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... rcna161338