COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

[princeofcarthage]

Still waiting for 20% of humanity to get infected with virus.

[Theodore]

Ok wait then? We'll talk next year :)

[princeofcarthage]

You don't understand do you. At some point 20% of humanity getting infected becomes irrelevant. It only matters if it happens in (un)reasonable amount of time.

[Theodore]

You don't understand do you. At some point 20% of humanity getting infected becomes irrelevant. It only matters if it happens in (un)reasonable amount of time.

No I really don't understand your comment. Why would 20% be of any relevance? As far as I know herd immunity for SARS-COV-2 will only be reached once 60-70% of a population are infected (if the basic reproduction number is somewhere between 2 and 3, for reference for measles the basic reproduction number is between 12-18 and a 95% vaccination rate is necessary for reaching herd immunity).

Or are you just randomly waiting for 20% of the population to be infected?

[RefluxSemantic]

He said earlier he didnt agree with experts, who estimated that somewhere between 20-70% of the population would get infected. Hes now doing premature victory laps.

[Dolan]

Herd immunity is a meme and will not work with Sars-Cov-2, because the mortality rate of the virus is too high to allow it to spread to even 40% of the population. We don't even know what the true mortality rate is (since all estimations of the rate of infection are based on how many people report being infected or sick and many more may not report and may not get tested), but it seems that in some populations it can be very high, if they have a population pyramid that is skewed towards older ages. What we do know is that even going by these imperfect estimates of mortality rate, it's very likely to be much higher than the flu virus. Which country wants to have tens or hundred of thousands of its old die just to get the meme immunity achieved? Yeah, sure, eventually you might get it, but lose like 5% of the old population or more.

[RefluxSemantic]

What alternative do you suggest?

[princeofcarthage]

High incubation period will almost allow it to spread though with no measures in place.

[princeofcarthage]

You don't understand do you. At some point 20% of humanity getting infected becomes irrelevant. It only matters if it happens in (un)reasonable amount of time.

No I really don't understand your comment. Why would 20% be of any relevance? As far as I know herd immunity for SARS-COV-2 will only be reached once 60-70% of a population are infected (if the basic reproduction number is somewhere between 2 and 3, for reference for measles the basic reproduction number is between 12-18 and a 95% vaccination rate is necessary for reaching herd immunity).

Or are you just randomly waiting for 20% of the population to be infected?

What reflux said except for the premature victory lap part

[Dolan]

@RefluxSemantic
The older population will probably have to live in lockdown or semi-lockdown mode until a vaccine or even just very effective symptomatic treatments will be developed. Which could happen sometime between the end of this year and the end of the next year.
While the rest of the population that is likely to have a low mortality rate might return to semi-normal life during the warm season and continue using protective equipment when the next wave hits in the next cold season.
Companies may have to make arrangements for people to work in shifts, to avoid crowded workplaces, at least for this and the next year.

[RefluxSemantic]

How is your victory lap not premature? NL had 3% infected in a little more than a month. Give it 7 months and we're at 21%. That's easily within the timeframe until vaccins are available. It seems very premature to now declare we will never reach 20%.

[princeofcarthage]

You are missing the point. 20% of population might very well get infected. However if it takes year 2200 for that it becomes irrelevant. Like spanish flu had 100m-500m in 2 years with millions dead then only it is relevant.

[RefluxSemantic]

?

It took 1.5 months to infect 3% of Dutch population?

[princeofcarthage]

We are talking about world.

[Theodore]

Internet discussions are horrible
"World" is probably not the best reference point, maybe not even country. The most relevant point of reference is anything within a 400km radius and / or anything with direct travel connections.

[Horsemen]

Still waiting for 20% of humanity to get infected with virus.

The threshold for herd immunity is 80%

[princeofcarthage]

@Theodore Irrelevant, he earlier said experts said 20-70% of world population would get infected with sars 2. Now as reference for argument he is using just dutch data which is also inaccurate.

[princeofcarthage]

Still waiting for 20% of humanity to get infected with virus.

The threshold for herd immunity is 80%

Funny how ppl have no clue what I am talking about still come to chip in their 2 cents.

[princeofcarthage]

?

It took 1.5 months to infect 3% of Dutch population?

Also there seems something wrong here. Dutch has population of 17.3 million people and are and ~35k are infected. That's 0.2% not 3

[Theodore]

The 35k is the people who are infected and have been tested for the virus. The big question is, how many people are infected but do not appear in the statistics. Scientist are trying to find this out, but it's difficult. It requires taking a representative sample of the population and then testing not for the virus but for an immune response (e.g. antibodies).

[RefluxSemantic]

?

It took 1.5 months to infect 3% of Dutch population?

Also there seems something wrong here. Dutch has population of 17.3 million people and are and ~35k are infected. That's 0.2% not 3

They don't record all the infections properly. After a research, it indicated 3% of people had developed anti-bodies for covid-19. There is nothing wrong here.

[princeofcarthage]

?

It took 1.5 months to infect 3% of Dutch population?

Also there seems something wrong here. Dutch has population of 17.3 million people and are and ~35k are infected. That's 0.2% not 3

They don't record all the infections properly. After a research, it indicated 3% of people had developed anti-bodies for covid-19. There is nothing wrong here.

research by who? Link?

[princeofcarthage]

The 35k is the people who are infected and have been tested for the virus. The big question is, how many people are infected but do not appear in the statistics. Scientist are trying to find this out, but it's difficult. It requires taking a representative sample of the population and then testing not for the virus but for an immune response (e.g. antibodies).

Again irrelevant. That still doesn't show true scale of infection and in that case the true scale is lower. Simply having virus in body =/= infection. Even if it is in extremely minute quantities which is harmless for you, body is going to trigger a response. Does it really a infection at that point?

[Horsemen]

Still waiting for 20% of humanity to get infected with virus.

The threshold for herd immunity is 80%

Funny how ppl have no clue what I am talking about still come to chip in their 2 cents.

The horse knows best

[fightinfrenchman]

I hate to have to do this but cheadar and gustav overrided me