COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by princeofcarthage »

Damn swedes! Killing old people! Oh well...
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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chris1089 wrote: Meanwhile we are nose diving into a global depression.
As for individual countries, the quickest way out of a depression will be eliminating as much of the virus as possible. That is through lockdown. Until consumer confidence goes back up then the economy will be fucked anyway, so continuing a lockdown will in the long term be best for economic recovery until a vaccine is introduced.
Obviously this extends to the global economy too.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by princeofcarthage »

wardyb1 wrote:
chris1089 wrote: Meanwhile we are nose diving into a global depression.
As for individual countries, the quickest way out of a depression will be eliminating as much of the virus as possible. That is through lockdown. Until consumer confidence goes back up then the economy will be fucked anyway, so continuing a lockdown will in the long term be best for economic recovery until a vaccine is introduced.
Obviously this extends to the global economy too.
And this is based on what evidence? If mandatory lockdown wouldn't have been introduced economies would have still been in much better shape. Any form of government and Industry depends on work force, and they will find a way to co-exist with virus.

From first hand experience consumer confidence is not at all down, slightly down but not fucked up. In India people are still buying everything at any given opportunity. The only barrier? -> Government lockdown.

Of course everything could be normal if government would simply inject the money into system but that is not going to happen.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by wardyb1 »

princeofcarthage wrote:
wardyb1 wrote:
chris1089 wrote: Meanwhile we are nose diving into a global depression.
As for individual countries, the quickest way out of a depression will be eliminating as much of the virus as possible. That is through lockdown. Until consumer confidence goes back up then the economy will be fucked anyway, so continuing a lockdown will in the long term be best for economic recovery until a vaccine is introduced.
Obviously this extends to the global economy too.
And this is based on what evidence? If mandatory lockdown wouldn't have been introduced economies would have still been in much better shape. Any form of government and Industry depends on work force, and they will find a way to co-exist with virus.

From first hand experience consumer confidence is not at all down, slightly down but not fucked up. In India people are still buying everything at any given opportunity. The only barrier? -> Government lockdown.

Of course everything could be normal if government would simply inject the money into system but that is not going to happen.
If mandatory lockdowns hadn't have happened then death rates would be through the roof and as a result people would stop going out to spend their money anyway because people don't like to die.

And if we are speaking on anecdotal evidence I'd would argue the contrary. The only places that have experienced rises in buying things are supermarkets due to panic buying but they have gone back down to normal levels. Even before lockdowns retail stores had already begun experiencing huge downturns.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Theodore »

evilcheadar wrote:The lockdown is completely dumb and arguably stupid
lol somebody got subtly nuanced opinions there?
It sure was effective in the countries that implemented it. and unless you think the people of the NIH (USA) or WHO or the SAGE-group (UK) or RKI (Germany) are all stupid and have less of an understanding than you, it's just a "completely dumb" thing to say and "arguably stupid".
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by princeofcarthage »

wardyb1 wrote:
princeofcarthage wrote:
Show hidden quotes
And this is based on what evidence? If mandatory lockdown wouldn't have been introduced economies would have still been in much better shape. Any form of government and Industry depends on work force, and they will find a way to co-exist with virus.

From first hand experience consumer confidence is not at all down, slightly down but not fucked up. In India people are still buying everything at any given opportunity. The only barrier? -> Government lockdown.

Of course everything could be normal if government would simply inject the money into system but that is not going to happen.
If mandatory lockdowns hadn't have happened then death rates would be through the roof and as a result people would stop going out to spend their money anyway because people don't like to die.

And if we are speaking on anecdotal evidence I'd would argue the contrary. The only places that have experienced rises in buying things are supermarkets due to panic buying but they have gone back down to normal levels. Even before lockdowns retail stores had already begun experiencing huge downturns.
Again that's based no evidence. According to India's top medical institution all lockdown has managed to achieve is flatten the curve to reduce workload on healthcare. There is no indication over longer periods if death toll would be lesser at all unless you have vaccine ready like today. Sweden has no mandatory lockdown and is still faring okay.

Now that is nitpicking because that doesn't show consumer confidence or spending to full extent. It's true that many are not going to retail shops but ordering online the same.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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Post by wardyb1 »

princeofcarthage wrote:
wardyb1 wrote:
Show hidden quotes
If mandatory lockdowns hadn't have happened then death rates would be through the roof and as a result people would stop going out to spend their money anyway because people don't like to die.

And if we are speaking on anecdotal evidence I'd would argue the contrary. The only places that have experienced rises in buying things are supermarkets due to panic buying but they have gone back down to normal levels. Even before lockdowns retail stores had already begun experiencing huge downturns.
Again that's based no evidence. According to India's top medical institution all lockdown has managed to achieve is flatten the curve to reduce workload on healthcare. There is no indication over longer periods if death toll would be lesser at all unless you have vaccine ready like today. Sweden has no mandatory lockdown and is still faring okay.

Now that is nitpicking because that doesn't show consumer confidence or spending to full extent. It's true that many are not going to retail shops but ordering online the same.
What do you mean it isn't based on any evidence? Everywhere that has implemented a lockdown successfully has fared much better than those that haven't. China, Australia, New Zealand, New York, Austria, Germany and on and on. Read it for yourself https://theconversation.com/6-countries ... ter-137333 And Sweden currently has the highest death rate per capita in the world. So if your definition of "faring okay" is literally the bottom of the barrel then this isn't a conversation worth having.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Theodore »

@princeofcarthage Plus, I don't know what you mean by "no evidence" that a lockdown saves lives in the long run. You will never know for sure, because a country cannot be simultaneously in lockdown and not in lockdown. So you only have (educated) estimates. But one thing is certain: the moment the number of critically ill cases exceeds the capacity of a health care system, you will have so called "preventable deaths". In Sweden, today's number of cases can be handled by the health care system. So maybe they won't have more deaths because of Covid-19 in 5 years time compared to countries where the virus spreads more slowly. But by not slowing down the spreading they risk getting closer to the limits of their health care system. In Italy, you certainly had preventable deaths, because patients in ICUs require a large team of doctors and nurses to constantly treat them. If there are too many cases, they cannot provide optimal care. And the resources allocated to fighting Covid-19 are missing elsewhere.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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Also, I don't like to artificially differentiate between "the economy" and health care. Economic growth is heavily influenced by people believing in a (slightly) better future. If nothing is changing for the better, investments will not happen. You need people to go to work. If you just let the virus spread uncontrolled you will experience not only a lot of deaths but an economic crises. So the economic damage is bound to happen anyway for the most part.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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wardyb1 wrote:
princeofcarthage wrote:
Show hidden quotes
Again that's based no evidence. According to India's top medical institution all lockdown has managed to achieve is flatten the curve to reduce workload on healthcare. There is no indication over longer periods if death toll would be lesser at all unless you have vaccine ready like today. Sweden has no mandatory lockdown and is still faring okay.

Now that is nitpicking because that doesn't show consumer confidence or spending to full extent. It's true that many are not going to retail shops but ordering online the same.
What do you mean it isn't based on any evidence? Everywhere that has implemented a lockdown successfully has fared much better than those that haven't. China, Australia, New Zealand, New York, Austria, Germany and on and on. Read it for yourself https://theconversation.com/6-countries ... ter-137333 And Sweden currently has the highest death rate per capita in the world. So if your definition of "faring okay" is literally the bottom of the barrel then this isn't a conversation worth having.
New Zealand, Australia, Austria, Germany put the lock down far far early compared to Italy Spain UK US, they have had much better contact tracing and quarantining systems in place which helped in curbing the spread at far earlier stage. You are doing a bad faith argument because I could argue if world blocked travel from China in January we would be in far far far better place.

If New york was a country it still has 2nd highest cases, so faring better? huh

Moreover the chances of virus reappearing in these countries is now comparatively higher than rest. So they are on treading on a very thin line right now. Case in point Singapore.

Death per capita is a bad metric to measure in this case, as death count is more directly related to population density in the hotspot of the virus than whole country. For ex. Wuhan has death rate far higher than that of China.

Sweden is reporting cases of death caused by indirect death from C-19 as well. So there number is inflated as compared to other nations as those are only reporting direct Covid-19 deaths. Nations and many aren't even able to calculate the actual C-19 death rate. For ex. India has ~4.2k Covid-19 deaths, but if you factor in indirect deaths because of Covid-19 the number roughly doubles.

If you consider raw C-19 numbers sure Sweden looks bit on worse side but in overall terms Sweden is one of the best faring nation among major nations.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Theodore »

Capture.JPG
This is the excess mortality in Sweden compared to Finland and Norway. This includes all deaths, so this has nothing to do with a definition of Covid-19-deaths. Source: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

EDIT: in case it's not clear enough: Sweden is not doing great at the moment. Roughly 30% more deaths at the moment than the long-time average. You can say a lot about Sweden, but it's not one of the countries that handles this well. I would put South Korea or Taiwan in that category.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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princeofcarthage wrote:
wardyb1 wrote:
Show hidden quotes
What do you mean it isn't based on any evidence? Everywhere that has implemented a lockdown successfully has fared much better than those that haven't. China, Australia, New Zealand, New York, Austria, Germany and on and on. Read it for yourself https://theconversation.com/6-countries ... ter-137333 And Sweden currently has the highest death rate per capita in the world. So if your definition of "faring okay" is literally the bottom of the barrel then this isn't a conversation worth having.
New Zealand, Australia, Austria, Germany put the lock down far far early compared to Italy Spain UK US, they have had much better contact tracing and quarantining systems in place which helped in curbing the spread at far earlier stage. You are doing a bad faith argument because I could argue if world blocked travel from China in January we would be in far far far better place.

If New york was a country it still has 2nd highest cases, so faring better? huh

Moreover the chances of virus reappearing in these countries is now comparatively higher than rest. So they are on treading on a very thin line right now. Case in point Singapore.

Death per capita is a bad metric to measure in this case, as death count is more directly related to population density in the hotspot of the virus than whole country. For ex. Wuhan has death rate far higher than that of China.

Sweden is reporting cases of death caused by indirect death from C-19 as well. So there number is inflated as compared to other nations as those are only reporting direct Covid-19 deaths. Nations and many aren't even able to calculate the actual C-19 death rate. For ex. India has ~4.2k Covid-19 deaths, but if you factor in indirect deaths because of Covid-19 the number roughly doubles.

If you consider raw C-19 numbers sure Sweden looks bit on worse side but in overall terms Sweden is one of the best faring nation among major nations.
Your argument is that lockdowns have only flattened the curve to reduce workload on healthcare and that over longer periods there is no indication they reduce death tolls. So how is showing literally every country that has put in effective stringent lockdowns, clearly reducing the R0, hence preventing thousands of cases and as a result thousands of deaths; arguing in bad faith?

You even prove it yourself. NZ, Aus, Austria and Germany implemented them early and helped save lives. Italy, Spain, NY and UK moved too late and have only seen declines after lockdowns. Of course a proper lockdown in Wuhan straight away would have been far far better. You are literally arguing my point for me. Lockdowns save lives.

The virus is more likely to reappear ie Singapore. EXACTLY. They let off their lockdown and it killed people.

Every nation should be reporting deaths caused indirectly by C-19. If they aren't, they aren't being responsible. If I have a lowered immune system from a kidney transplant and I get C-19 and die. It wasn't my kidney's that killed me, it was C-19. And also India has no idea what is going on as they have one of the worst tests/1M people stats going around.

Like what are you arguing for? Spell it out because at the moment you are making no sense.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Dolan »

>Sweden
>major nation


They're like 10 million, bruh.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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In a year's time, the difference in deaths will be roughly the same between countries with no, some and full lockdown.
@XeeleeFlower I think that's a good idea now I actually post regularly.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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Post by Theodore »

chris1089 wrote:In a year's time, the difference in deaths will be roughly the same between countries with no, some and full lockdown.
@XeeleeFlower I think that's a good idea now I actually post regularly.
The question you are addressing is whether this pandemic actually influences deaths in the long run, as the high risk groups have underlying conditions or are old (https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-muc ... 39118e1196). In the very long run this will not make a difference, as we all have to die. So far so boring. It obviously depends on the time frame you are looking at. We will only know for sure in one or two year, but there is plenty of sound analysis that the lock down actually saves lives. This study (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 0/fulltext) published in the Lancet estimates the excess mortality in the UK:
Full suppression: virtually no excess deaths; Mitigation: ~18.000 deaths; no measures: ~146.000 deaths. This is the estimated excess over the baseline over a 1-year-period.

I am really curious what you think about this? Do you think you know better than the authors of the study? It might be that Sweden will not have any excess mortality in a year's time, but Sweden is still operating within its hospitals' capacity.
But for the UK, Spain and Italy it is probably not true. Too many patients too quickly leads to deaths that could have been prevented. I know there are some scientists who have claimed that most people would have died anyway (again, which heavily depends on the period of time you are looking at). The first article I have posted is by David Spiegelhalter who argued that the "additional" risk of dying from Covid-19 is quite small. He revised his standpoint and now argues that most of the deaths would not have occured within the next 12 months (https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/22/ ... ing-year-/)
I don't know how you can be so sceptic of mitigation measures. It is clear that they are working. I think an honest point of view would be to state that you just don't care about these groups and/or do think that the economic factors outweigh the human deaths. But arguing that the lock down is ineffective anyway and we can easily reopen the economy is... an outlier of an opinion.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Theodore »

Another way to evaluate the effects of the Coronavirus is to estimate the years of life lost by those who died instead of looking at the risk of dying for the people who do not have Covid-19.

Of those who died, men lost on average 14 years of their lifetime, women 12 (https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75).

"Nice" visualisation from the economist:
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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Post by XeeleeFlower »

Just wow:
Time is wise and our wounds seem to heal to the rhythm of aging,
But our past is a ghost fading out that at night it’s still haunting.

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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

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XeeleeFlower wrote:Just wow:
Disgusting behaviour. And watch absolutely nothing happen to them. None of them will resign. Absolutely disgraceful.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by RefluxSemantic »

Now that I'm seeing some more people (this has always been allowed, but I was being an extra good person) I'm starting to notice how difficult it is to keep some distance (here they suggest 1.5 meters). The appropriate social distance is woven into my brain, and if I lose focus for a bit I'll move closer. It almost feels awkward to communicate at such a large distance.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by princeofcarthage »

@Theodore Why are they not doing a study of how C-19 has affected people and the indirect deaths due to it? Why only there is a study of how many deaths could have been avoided or not due to C-19? You are literally trying to balance ~146,000 directly avoided deaths against potentially equal (or more) number of unaccounted deaths + indirect deaths + millions of lives ruined and this is just the beginning not to mention the fallout which will unveil over the next years. In the end how many have you actually saved? You are practically talking about few + or - to an infinity. But now you have made the corresponding effects worse.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Theodore »

@princeofcarthage
a) there are good reasons why trying to "calculate" the best way by weighing lives lost vs lives saved is a futile exercise. because these calculations only pretend to be precise, a lot is just estimates and preferences (go ahead and look up all the variations of the trolley problem). the only thing we do know is a new virus is spreading, there is no immunity in the population and it kills anywhere between 0.2-1.0 % of those infected. Enough to take action I guess.
b) if you criticise saving lives that are in danger right now because you think that even more potential lives are at risk in the future, ok. I know there are studies linking economic depression to an increase in suicide numbers BUT you can still do something against these potential future deaths. these are less certain than the deaths from covid-19 within the next year. you can't save those who die now.
c) you have to factor in that the economic damage is not 100% done by the lockdown /mitigation measures. it is done by the virus itself, as it kills people and creates uncertainty regarding the future. we would have a crashing economy anyway.
d) I'm just not willing to say "just let people die from the virus". that feels inhumane.

EDIT: the appropriate response to the virus may vary from region to region and country to country, but at least in Europe with a lot of old people and many predispositions there is no real alternative. and even in a country with a younger population I would be very unhappy as PR-manager of the politician who wants to kill off the old and weak. I mean look at your company: Bolsonaro, Lukashenko, Trump...
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Theodore »

too many words probably.

@princeofcarthage do you have any sound estimate that more people are actually dying from the lockdown than the virus? I haven't seen one. (I am quite sure China wouldn't have gone into lockdown if they'd figured out that they could just sit it out.)

Or is that just a feel fact from you. something that isn't true, but just feels right?
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by chris1089 »

@Theodore I shall respond in full after my exams which take place in a fortnight. For the time being, a couple of observations.
Capacity is not fixed. You can build hospitals in days.
The idea that there is agreement among epidemiologists is ludicrous.
Epidemiology should not be the sole basis for policy decisions.
What needs to be considered is what is best in the long run.
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by deleted_user »

Tbh not electing republicans is better in the long run ngl
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Re: COVID-19 / Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by chris1089 »

Tbh not electing 99% of politicians is better in the long run ngl

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