European politics

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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

princeofcarthage wrote:Of course. I mentioned it. Google will use it for it's own benefit. It is investing cuz it sees benefit for it in future. My point is regardless, if google manages a breakthrough it is a good news for everyone in general.
How is it good for everyone if Google grows stronger by profiting from everyone's data. Anything they give you for free is just a fly trap with some sugar bait at the center of it.
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Re: European politics

Post by iNcog »

Dolan wrote:
princeofcarthage wrote:Of course. I mentioned it. Google will use it for it's own benefit. It is investing cuz it sees benefit for it in future. My point is regardless, if google manages a breakthrough it is a good news for everyone in general.
How is it good for everyone if Google grows stronger by profiting from everyone's data. Anything they give you for free is just a fly trap with some sugar bait at the center of it.
well they earned it
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Garja wrote: ↑
20 Mar 2020, 21:46
I just hope DE is not going to implement all of the EP changes. Right now it is a big clusterfuck.
Vietnam duckzilla
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Re: European politics

Post by duckzilla »

occamslightsaber wrote:
duckzilla wrote:Today, there will be the first of three debates with the three chancellor candidates. Armin Laschet (CDU - Merkel's successor) saw his lead getting lost over the past weeks when his party dropped from a ~32% peak to ~21% in polls. Similar happened to Anna-Lena Baerbock (the Greens) whose party polled >25% at some point and dropped to ~18% now. In contrast, Olaf Scholz (SPD - Social Democrats) saw an increase from ~16% to ~24% in the most recent polls. The whole dynamic is quite interesting as now one would have expected to see Social Democrats to poll above 20% in the foreseeable future.

A coalition of left parties (SPD, the Left, the Greens) becomes increasingly realistic and would bring a lot of change. To me, this seems to be the most promising option as the other two main parties (CDU and FDP) both do not really have a program except for decreasing taxes for the rich, slow down climate policy as much as possible, and reduce social standards.
How are the right-wing kids doing these days?
The AfD does not really play an important role at the moment. They are somewhere around 9-12% in the polls, but they are struggling to get attention given that their main political driver (refugees) is not a real issue currently. It does not help that the party itself seems to be divided on many matters and there is no inner-party consensus on the general direction of the party.
Whatever is written above: this is no financial advice.

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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

duckzilla wrote:The AfD does not really play an important role at the moment. They are somewhere around 9-12% in the polls, but they are struggling to get attention given that their main political driver (refugees) is not a real issue currently. It does not help that the party itself seems to be divided on many matters and there is no inner-party consensus on the general direction of the party.
The reason why the AfD may be losing steam in Germany is the same as why the National Rally might be failing to gain a momentum vs Macron in France too. That is, they already managed to shift the political spectrum in each country more to the right, at least on the topic of immigration. Now there's a lot more intransigence on this topic in both Germany and France, which makes the AfD and the NR appear less useful to have in power for mainstream voters, if they built their political profiles mostly around this theme of opposition to uncontrolled migration. They lost their comparative advantage.
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Hungary Dsy
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Re: European politics

Post by Dsy »



I just laughed so hard on Scholz with this voiceover. :D
0:32. Why is it so funny?
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

They all seem very ordinary and lackluster candidates, tbh.
I read some interviews with Laschet and he's just a typical mix-and-match politician who tries hard to emulate Merkel's trademark prudent profile.
As pros in political communication say, none of these candidates breaks through the TV screen.
They're fated to be post-Merkel leaders.
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Re: European politics

Post by duckzilla »

Alea iacta est - I just voted via mail. Let's see how this evolves.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

Lorry drivers shortage in the Uk and in Europe.
Somewhat related to Brexit but also to globalisation.

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Great Britain Horsemen
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Re: European politics

Post by Horsemen »

Dolan wrote:They all seem very ordinary and lackluster candidates, tbh.
I read some interviews with Laschet and he's just a typical mix-and-match politician who tries hard to emulate Merkel's trademark prudent profile.
As pros in political communication say, none of these candidates breaks through the TV screen.
They're fated to be post-Merkel leaders.
I wish my country had candidates vying to be post-Merkel leaders
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Re: European politics

Post by duckzilla »

Over the past weeks, it seems to have become quite clear that Olaf Scholz is going to be the next chancellor. His party, the SPD, currently polls around 25% with a 4-5% lead on the next largest (CDU). The SPD and the Greens also made clear that they both favor a coalition together, with a third party if needed. The current debate is now surrounding the question whether SPD/Greens will form a coalition with the Linke (resulting in a leftist coalition) or with the FDP (resulting in a more difficult mix with the pseudo-liberals).


If you want to have a look at the current polls: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland ... n-umfragen
If you scroll a bit down, there is a list of potential coalitions and their corresponding aggregate share of MdB's (members of the Bundestag).
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European Union scarm
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Re: European politics

Post by scarm »

I find it very interesting how the SPD somehow is recovering after its yearlong crisis that had only been interrupted for a few weeks back in 2017 with the Scholz Hype. Really would have never expected that tbh, always thought if anything the Greens would be the main second contender for the chancellory. I guess Baerbock's bad publicity really hurt in that regard. All in all a very interesting election so far.
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Re: European politics

Post by duckzilla »

I think that the election dynamics of the past decade only now begin to become interpretable. To me, it seems that the "yearlong crisis" of the SPD was a crisis in election results, but not in content. Angela Merkel was skillful in labelling herself a centrist politician and, thereby, gathering former SPD votes. People voted for the CDU in masses not due to the content the party wanted to deliver, but because of Angela Merkel promising to understand the needs of the population. This can be seen in her environmental agenda. Whenever she was in talked at climate summits and the like, she precisely formulated the issues and states that "more has to be done". Thereby, she was generally praised by the scientific community as a politician (with doctoral degree!) who thoroughly understands the problems ahead. However, she never actually did anything with regard to environmental policies and, interestingly, was never held accountable for her non-delivering on it. This mechanism can be seen over her entire chancellorship in many different fields of politics. She was extremely popular without actually doing anything, simply by giving the populace the impression of an understanding regent.

Now Angela Merkel is, finally, history and her effect on the electoral map is largely gone. The CDU, which is often said to have lost its conservative core during the Merkel years, suddenly looks far more conservative than many centrist voters find acceptable. Hence, they shift back to the SPD (and the Greens), because content begins to play a more important role without Merkel and these parties simply deliver in that area. At the same time, the CDU - now more conservative - begins to realize the effect of an additional far-right party in the Bundestag: the AfD. Many AfD voters are former CDU voters who did not like the wannabe-progressive touch of Angela Merkel. Unfortunately for the CDU, these voters are unlikely to go back and are pretty much lost for the party. That means, the CDU does not win anything by going back to its more conservative core, but loses a significant amount of votes at the center. The decline from ~38% in the polls in January to now ~20% is the result of this dynamic.

For the CDU this is disastrous. I think that, in the future, we are likely to see more cooperation between CDU/AfD/FDP, because this will be the only option to find majorities on the conservative side of the spectrum. On the other hand, majorities with SPD/Greens/Linke are likely to happen more often. The former "grand coalition" of CDU/SPD is likely to reappear simply as "centrist coalition", due to their massive loss of votes in the past two decades.
Whatever is written above: this is no financial advice.

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Latvia harcha
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Re: European politics

Post by harcha »

informational video for the layperson
POC wrote:Also I most likely know a whole lot more than you.
POC wrote:Also as an objective third party, and near 100% accuracy of giving correct information, I would say my opinions are more reliable than yours.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

rofl, neolib boomer going full Orban now

Image
Mr Barnier – who is running for the French presidency against Emmanuel Macron – said it was time for France to “regain sovereignty” lost to the European judiciary.

The politician who negotiated the Brexit deal on behalf of Brussels appears to have adopted Eurosceptic rhetoric in his bid to win the presidency for the centre-right Republicans.

“We must regain our legal sovereignty in order to no longer be subjected to the judgements of the European Court of Justice or the European Court of Human Rights,” the former EU Commissioner said on Thursday.

Mr Barnier repeated his call for a referendum to impose a five-year moratorium on immigration to France from outside the EU. “We will propose a referendum in September 2022 on the question of immigration,” he told a rally in Nimes.

Mr Barnier later issued a tweet attempting to clarify his rally remarks – saying he did not want France to break entirely free of the European courts but to create a “constitutional shield” to give the country more power over immigration issues.
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Poland pecelot
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Re: European politics

Post by pecelot »

the French hysteria over AUKUS reminds of the less-known failed deal with Poland to sell Caracal helicopters and how much outrage the Polish withdrawal caused; jokes on us, though, as we didn't look for any other option and are to this day left with nothing :genius:
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

@pecelot Interedesting. 🤔 I thought you guys in Poland buy military gear from the burgers, just like lots of other US allies..
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Poland pecelot
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Re: European politics

Post by pecelot »

we used to, yes, and we still do, to my knowledge; that was just a case in point... our government messes up quite a lot, but often when they do, it's disproportionately exaggerated — the French deal's failure was considered a major faux pas, whereas now it seems that it's just a French speciality to take such things personally; naturally, they have their reasons to be upset, and it's part of a bigger picture, but still, I think there's too much drama about it
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Re: European politics

Post by pecelot »

harcha wrote:informational video for the layperson
it only scratches the surface... it is understandable given the means of communication he possesses and the audience he addresses, but the fact that he mentions Swietłana Cichanowska only briefly at the end should tell you something about the level he operates on
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Latvia harcha
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Re: European politics

Post by harcha »

yeah, you can't expect him to go too much in depth considering the target audience. however he could have shown many graphic videos of how the protests and general population have been dealt with to better drive the point home
POC wrote:Also I most likely know a whole lot more than you.
POC wrote:Also as an objective third party, and near 100% accuracy of giving correct information, I would say my opinions are more reliable than yours.
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Re: European politics

Post by pecelot »

you'd expect him to poke fun at the absurdities of the regime, like arresting people for the vaguest acts of protest, for comedic reasons; strange he ignored that, maybe he'll do a second part, as it's not an unusual thing for him to do
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European Union scarm
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Re: European politics

Post by scarm »

Forming a government in germany is gonna be fun. Seems like the Liberals (FDP, actual liberals not american liberals) and Greens are intent on discussing with each other first, because they are the most different ideologically, but are likely both needed to gain a majority. Could be interpreted as them trying to bundle their strategic power to then drive either the Social or Chrstian Democrats as the Major coalition partner into a corner.
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Re: European politics

Post by wardyb1 »

scarm wrote:Forming a government in germany is gonna be fun. Seems like the Liberals (FDP, actual liberals not american liberals) and Greens are intent on discussing with each other first, because they are the most different ideologically, but are likely both needed to gain a majority. Could be interpreted as them trying to bundle their strategic power to then drive either the Social or Chrstian Democrats as the Major coalition partner into a corner.
Presumably no one wants to work with the AFD, for being too far right/populist?

Also what's the likelihood the Greens are willing to work with the CDU instead of the SPD?
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Re: European politics

Post by duckzilla »

wardyb1 wrote:Presumably no one wants to work with the AFD, for being too far right/populist?

Also what's the likelihood the Greens are willing to work with the CDU instead of the SPD?
Right, the AfD is not going to be included into coalition talks for that reason.

FDP has more in common with CDU, Greens have more in common with SPD. In the end, both can live with either the CDU or the SPD, as long as their most important positions are covered in the coalition programme. The CDU is more flexible, due to not having a real programme on its own, than the SPD, making a Jamaica coalition (Black/CDU, Green, Yellow/FDP) quite likely.

The results are difficult.
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European Union scarm
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Re: European politics

Post by scarm »

I would agree with @duckzilla on most things, except for the "cdu not having a real programme", because this is a popular myth in common discourse, but doesn't really hold up when scientifically analysing party programmes. Same thing applies for the thesis that party programmes are all the same btw. Ideologically in terms of programmes and position papers, parties still are quite diverse nowadays, both in germany but also most western democracies in general.

It really is quite a interesting situation, because someone will have to come out of their ideological comfort zone, since both a left-wing coalition and a right-wing coalition are impossible, due to the AfD being persona non grata and the Left being too weak.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

Isn't SPD-Greens-FDP the obvious choice, given that the CDU/CSU has a legitimacy problem (they were among the parties most punished by voters), considering they had the worst election result historically.
Who would want to get in a coalition with a sinking CDU/CSU right now, after it headed the previous coalitions for more than a decade.
It would lead to faster political erosion for anyone who wants to govern with the CDU/CSU.

Normally when a party has such an appalling result, the logical and healthy direction for them is to go into opposition and try to regain the trust of the electorate. Not clinging to power at any cost.
And it would be politically damaging for the other parties to isolate the SPD when it came out as the first party in voters' options. The SPD would grow a lot more if they were sent into opposition after being the first choice of German voters.

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