European politics

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Vietnam duckzilla
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Re: European politics

Post by duckzilla »

A page full of cringe posts. On to the next!
Whatever is written above: this is no financial advice.

Beati pauperes spiritu.
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Re: European politics

Post by fightinfrenchman »

duckzilla wrote:A page full of cringe posts. On to the next!
Mine was based
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Kiribati princeofcarthage
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Re: European politics

Post by princeofcarthage »

Maybe truth is the new cringe for Europeans.
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Re: European politics

Post by Riotcoke »

princeofcarthage wrote:America is probably going to be the only superpower so far in the world which didn't become superpower on its own merit, which never won a single major war, and probably the shortest lived superpower ~1990-2050 give or take.
America has been a superpower since 1945, not 1990.
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Kiribati princeofcarthage
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Re: European politics

Post by princeofcarthage »

Riotcoke wrote:
princeofcarthage wrote:America is probably going to be the only superpower so far in the world which didn't become superpower on its own merit, which never won a single major war, and probably the shortest lived superpower ~1990-2050 give or take.
America has been a superpower since 1945, not 1990.
I meant the sole superpower. When there are multiple superpowers the term itself has little to no meaning. Also unlike Rome or other superpowers the status of America as superpower itself is arguable.
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Re: European politics

Post by callentournies »

The allegory of Bandit Kieth
A58FAA3A-4F90-40ED-9418-940B7426D47D.jpeg
B78A7CBD-A0D1-444D-B39D-16458AEC2F22.jpeg
If I were a petal
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To wither on a young child’s
Display. Fetch
Me a ribbon, they, all dead
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Re: European politics

Post by scarm »

what the actual
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Re: European politics

Post by callentournies »

If I were a petal
And plucked, or moth, plucked
From flowers or pollen froth
To wither on a young child’s
Display. Fetch
Me a ribbon, they, all dead
Things scream.
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Re: European politics

Post by callentournies »

If I were a petal
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To wither on a young child’s
Display. Fetch
Me a ribbon, they, all dead
Things scream.
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Re: European politics

Post by fightinfrenchman »

I always thought it was BS how Pegasus just straight up cheated with his Millennium Eye
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Rainbow Land callentournies
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Re: European politics

Post by callentournies »

If I were a petal
And plucked, or moth, plucked
From flowers or pollen froth
To wither on a young child’s
Display. Fetch
Me a ribbon, they, all dead
Things scream.
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Re: European politics

Post by callentournies »

Bandit Kieth as the retelling of Jesus Christ.
If I were a petal
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

Image

Even a rabid federalist like Verhofstadt knows what's up:

Image

And a little parade of the clueless:
Krisjanis Karins, the prime minister of Latvia, was among those to stress transatlantic ties at Tuesday’s summit.
“It’s a good idea to speak about how, in Europe, we can make ourselves stronger. That is not, I think, a problem,” he said.
“The question is – how do we make ourselves stronger within the alliances that we have? The EU-Nato alliance, the transatlantic alliance is a very important aspect that should not in any way be compromised.”
The president of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, made his point in an early-morning tweet decorated with EU and US flags.
“The US is a key partner of the EU,” he said. “We share same values and long history. The EU and US need to work together on strengthening the transatlantic bond.”
Speaking on Wednesday, Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg came to the organisation's defence and said the fallout from Afghanistan should not weaken transatlantic ties.
"The crisis in Afghanistan does not change the need for North America and Europe to stand together in a more dangerous and competitive world," he told a German panel reviewing the mission in Afghanistan.
Most of these "leaders" are either sleeping or they're simply US pawns.
They don't understand that if you want to be strong, you need to cut dependencies and stand on your own two feet.

If we can't, then at least we should admit it and ally with Russia and China against the colonial furuncles beyond the Atlantic.
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Kiribati princeofcarthage
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Re: European politics

Post by princeofcarthage »

The lamps are going out all over Britain

https://flip.it/R_yJNJ

Lol. As if Britian bas decided to roll back to 1700's
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

Turns out that if 80% of your economy is services, if shtf and you can't import actual food and energy, you can't feed your people and light your streets on management consulting, design and law advice. 😐
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Kiribati princeofcarthage
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Re: European politics

Post by princeofcarthage »

only if you read the article... it seems it goes way back to the first lighting. Apparently it was residential responsibility and not government to light the streets. So this was never formulated into law and as such legally government isn't obligated to light the streets.
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Kiribati princeofcarthage
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Re: European politics

Post by princeofcarthage »

Dolan wrote:
Dolan bad logic
I mean realistically EU has no need for army tbh
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

Every country needs and keeps an army. And now that the post-war world order is slowly breaking apart, Europe will need to build its own force to be part of the new balance of threats.
Another reason why this needs to happen is for European states to stop buying equipment from American corporations from their industrial military complex.
It's a shit situation when European money are funding US corporations and then their neocons come here posturing and lecturing us that we're not paying enough for our defence.
So we should be taking their advice and investing those money that are currently going to US corporations in our own local defence industry. Then we won't need to see any Washington neocons come here visit anymore.
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Kiribati princeofcarthage
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Re: European politics

Post by princeofcarthage »

EU practically needs no army at this point ( I mean of course some army is needed but not like India, China, Japan or US needs) cuz it faces no threat at all. France and UK are practically top 5 in the powerful nations list and have nuclear weapons. Germany just lacks political will otherwise it can quickly rearm and can possibly get a nuclear weapon within month. Unless Russia is fully committed to war as in conquering whole of Europe, Russia is no threat either. Sure Russia meddles in middle east and balkans but Poland lithuania has been traditional line which Russia won't cross unless it is ready for nuclear war, at which point conventional armies are useless. Besides EU kind off buffers american sanctions to an extent. So it's in their interest to maintain relations with EU. China is decades if not centuries from being a military threat to EU.

If Europe can achieve few things
-> Reduce energy dependence on Russia
-> Detach critical economy from China
-> Develop relations in Africa
-> Maintain at least amicable mutual relations and unity amongst itself

If they can achieve these things they will have unprecedented soft power. Nuclear deterrence is always there.

The question isn't can Europe arm itself, to an extent it already is, to deter any casual invasions but whether the world is ready for an armed Europe and another military superpower. Will US every allow that? You need to justify such large military expenditure and standing army. That means international deployments and combat situations. Do we really want EU navy going against Iranian or Russian navies in a power struggle? Or doing freedom of navigation missions in SCS? This might be counter-intuitive but an armed Europe actually raises the possibility of conflict exponentially than other way round.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

princeofcarthage wrote:EU practically needs no army at this point ( I mean of course some army is needed but not like India, China, Japan or US needs) cuz it faces no threat at all.
Just a few years ago Russia invaded and annexed another state's territory.
France and UK are practically top 5 in the powerful nations list and have nuclear weapons.
UK doesn't play with team Europe anymore, mostly verbally. But as this Ausuk pact shows, their real foreign policy focus is following US global initiatives and having basically the same focus on the Pacific and Asia as them. So, it's just France that has a significant nuclear force and that's not enough.
Germany just lacks political will otherwise it can quickly rearm and can possibly get a nuclear weapon within month.
Germany is bogged down, still, by its historical legacy. That's probably for two reasons: they're too concerned that if they started arming again there'd be voices reminding them of their past, and secondly, since the US planted military bases on their territory in the post-war period, there's been this perception that they don't need to invest in their own military, because they already have a quid pro quo arrangement with the USA: Germany provides the infrastructure and some funding to keep those military bases running, which allows the US to coordinate operations outside Europe (flights, movement of troops, other logistics done through Germany as a gateway to other regions where the US army sends troops).
Yeah, the German political class would have to overcome this mental block and pluck up the courage to tell the US their military bases are no longer needed and they can pack them up. The post-war order is over anyways and they already know it.
Unless Russia is fully committed to war as in conquering whole of Europe, Russia is no threat either. Sure Russia meddles in middle east and balkans but Poland lithuania has been traditional line which Russia won't cross unless it is ready for nuclear war, at which point conventional armies are useless. Besides EU kind off buffers american sanctions to an extent. So it's in their interest to maintain relations with EU.
There's a lot to be said about what Russia does or could do. Don't want to write too much, but here's a scenario: Putin dies/retires and his appointed successor fails to maintain his grip on power for long. Then different power brokers in Russia launch a battle for power to impose their own puppet at the helm, for the sake of maintaining their oil pipe businesses -- and the next thing you know Russia could go through a USSR 2.0 moment. Instability, breakaway republics, some mercenary groups grabbing a couple of nukes in the general confusion. And then Europe has a huge crisis on its doorstep, but wait, we can't stop some rogue mercenaries or breakaway republics from launching rockets onto our borders because we've been thinking we wouldn't need to stay competitive from a military point of view with the other powers.
China is decades if not centuries from being a military threat to EU.
Idk about that, they're investing heavily in their fleet and land capabilities. In terms of air forces, yeah, they're probably behind. But China is also known for its "build fast" approach to solving any major problem. They're not really dragging their feet if they have a strategic goal.
If Europe can achieve few things
-> Reduce energy dependence on Russia
This is inevitable anyway, as economies are forced to wean themselves off fossil fuels, Russia will gradually lose this leverage with Europe. And it's not much of a leverage anyway, because they know they can't cross a line and make some exaggerated demands, because there's a global market out there and no country buys gas from one single source, there's a very diversified gamut of sources. And if Russia oversteps the mark, Germany could buy more from Qatar or the Caspic Sea, albeit a bit more costly, but it could work. You can always boost imports from a few of those 15 countries from which you already buy. The reason why Americans keep banging on about this and keep criticising Germany for buying gas from Russia has nothing to do with any of their moralistic, grandstanding claimed reasons, they just want Germany to buy gas from them.
-> Detach critical economy from China
Agreed. I've been trying to convince people to stop buying Chinese products for years lol, but some people are just too addicted to consooming, they just can't see right, their brain is hooked up on cheaper Chinese products.
-> Develop relations in Africa
Some EU countries are already doing that, France never really stopped projecting its post-colonial presence in Africa. The EU has troops there in some places too. But Africa is a very variable region, with lots of shaky regimes that are struggling to maintain an actual state, while fighting against all sorts of local guerilla groups.
-> Maintain at least amicable mutual relations and unity amongst itself
That's the main challenge and one of the risks that the EU could break up. The current fallout with Poland is a big question mark over the EU's future. And the US and Russia are both working on aligning some EU states with their interests, which creates even more divisions. That's why I find it hillarious when I hear EU federalists project this rosy future of greater unity, when the union can barely hold itself in one piece currently and it takes a lot of effort to do just that.
If they can achieve these things they will have unprecedented soft power. Nuclear deterrence is always there.
Soft power is a meme that worked during those decades during the postwar neoliberal world order, when the global balance of power was held in place by the Pax Americana. So all that the other Western powers could do is compete over who gets more GDP growth and use economics as foreign policy leverage. But Pax Americans is on its way out, so being a soft power will not work any longer.
Will US every allow that?
Nobody's asking them.
You need to justify such large military expenditure and standing army. That means international deployments and combat situations. Do we really want EU navy going against Iranian or Russian navies in a power struggle?
In a very concrete example, if Europe had its own big force, they wouldn't have pulled out of Afghanistan, they could have kept the Taliban in check, or retreated a lot more gradually, without creating so much disruption.
Or doing freedom of navigation missions in SCS?
Yes, that's one of the practical situations in which Europe found itself unable to project such a force overseas. Because of many reasons, as I explained, but there's also a mental block that still holds European leaders back from projecting such power again. WW2 has destroyed Europe's spirit of self-assertion. The reason why Europe is in such a lethargic state right now is because of Pax Americana. Europe's only chance to wake up from this lethargy is for Pax Americana to die already. Otherwise, these Euro politicians will continue to wallow in this state of inertia and ineffectiveness. To put it in ghetto lingo, they'll only get the message when shit gets real.
This might be counter-intuitive but an armed Europe actually raises the possibility of conflict exponentially than other way round.
Well sure, if you make yourself scarce and move over every time some bigger power throws its weight around, you could avoid a lot of conflicts, but you'll also become irrelevant. You'll get a lot more respect if the others are not sure a conflict with you could end up in their favour.
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Re: European politics

Post by lejend »

Any thoughts on the situation in Romania?

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... government
Romania faces political crisis as MPs collapse government


Former banker Citu had only been prime minister since December, but the centre-right USR party withdrew from his coalition last month complaining about his "dictatorial attitude".

The left-wing opposition Social Democrats (PSD) accuse his government of "impoverishing Romanians and increasing the country's debts".

The two parties put aside their normal enmity to vote for the motion, and were joined by the far-right AUR.
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Re: European politics

Post by harcha »

princeofcarthage wrote:Sure Russia meddles in middle east and balkans but Poland lithuania has been traditional line which Russia won't cross unless it is ready for nuclear war
Because countries until Poland are not European anyways. How do you imagine enforcing any borders with such attitude?
POC wrote:Also I most likely know a whole lot more than you.
POC wrote:Also as an objective third party, and near 100% accuracy of giving correct information, I would say my opinions are more reliable than yours.
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Re: European politics

Post by scarm »

Just saying, the US military bases as ironic as it might sound are actually economically quite important for the cities and areas they are in, which is why it actually was an issue when Trump tried to dissolve some of them and withdraw a large chunk, besides the security aspect.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

lejend wrote:Any thoughts on the situation in Romania?
The CĂźÈ›u government was supported by a coalition between PNL (National Liberal Party - centre-right) and USR (Save Romania Union, radical centre party), until PM CĂźÈ›u dismissed one of their ministers for refusing to sign a law. The USR is part of the so-called radical centrism movement, they're politically affiliated to the same group as Macron's LREM, Renew Europe.

The crisis started in September when PM CĂźÈ›u wanted to pass a massive 10bn Euros regional development investment plan, which the USR opposed. I don't think they were opposing the plan itself, but how it would be managed. The USR is a party full of obnoxious self-important Talibans who think they're the cleanest and most reformist politicians, they see themselves as the Snow White of politics and claim everyone else is a shady, corrupt crook. They're a very fractious party, I don't think anyone can govern with them. At the last elections, they were hoping they would get the biggest score but they came in third. Previously they created another political crisis because they had great polls, so they were hoping that by triggering snap elections they'd get about 30% of the vote. Eventually, this opportunist strategy backfired and they only got 15% of the vote in the 2020 elections, while CĂźÈ›u's liberal party got 25%.

Currently, as the previous coalition government was ousted, a caretaking government continues to be in place and the president will have to start a new round of consultations with parties to appoint a new PM candidate. USR has a personal problem with CĂźÈ›u, they said they'd accept any other PM except him. But CĂźÈ›u has just recently won the party congress and he's the new leader of the liberal party. So, I don't see how liberals would simply give up on supporting him.

There are two possible ways out of the crisis:
- the remnants of the previous coalition (PNL liberals and UDMR hungarian union) form a minority government that could get some legislative support from the centre-left party PSD. This has happened before in Romanian politics, but it tends to only work for a while, maybe a year or just over a year. Last time this happened, the minority government collapsed and it was replaced by a technocratic caretaking government until the next elections.
- PNL caves in and appoints another PM candidate which would re-form the centre-right coalition. Knowing how things usually work in politics here, it's very unlikely that a newly elected leader of a party would simply move over and resign himself to be in the shadow of some other PM from his own party.

A theoretical third way out would be snap elections, but the procedure is so complicated and time-restricted that no previous legislature managed to trigger this successfully. It also involves members of parliament voting themselves out of their seat.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: European politics

Post by Dolan »

scarm wrote:Just saying, the US military bases as ironic as it might sound are actually economically quite important for the cities and areas they are in, which is why it actually was an issue when Trump tried to dissolve some of them and withdraw a large chunk, besides the security aspect.
Image

Well if the money spent on Boeing fighter jets were invested in local German industry to build fighter jets, things could have been evened out.
Germany had local engineering tradition in the defence sector, but companies like AnschĂŒtz were sold to Raytheon, a US corporation. So when the German government buys navy upgrades, the money goes to the USA now. And the know-how and technology are now owned by an American company.

It's kinda similar to how Brits sold almost their entire car industry and now they have no local carmaker anymore (except for McLaren or other such niche companies), they're all "global capital" corporations that could move out any time they want to and then Jaguar or Land Rover could become Indian brands. And what happens in case of a war, when you need manufacturing facilities and know-how? You discover that they moved out, but you have a large services sector that produces a lot of paper, design, law advice, management consulting etc. And none of those are going to help you in dire times.

Strategic thinking could have avoided that.

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