European politics

[duckzilla]

Berlin prepares evacuation of embassy staff from Ukraine

According to a media report, the Federal Foreign Office is working on an evacuation plan for the relatives of the German embassy employees in Ukraine. Washington probably wants to start with this step as early as Monday.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/aus ... 46128.html

[Dolan]

well c u guys in the trenches



don't forget to bring your tendies tupperware

[Goodspeed]

Damn Germany really be giving Russia the go ahead

[Djigit]

lol at poor Germany taking one for the team when France is not doing much better.

Will shit get real when the US is the most vulnerable, that is the day of the superbowl on Feb 14 euro time? US troops will be too busy to monitor military movements in the Eastern front from the sky and notify their allies

[Dolan]

I have a theory that Putin waited for Merkel's coalition to leave power and hand things over to a coalition led by pacifist SPD. Because troops have been slowly massing at Ukraine's border since April last year, but they intensified close to the moment when the new coalition came into power in Germany.
He must have anticipated that a pacifist party like the SPD, with the hippie flower-power attitude that is typical of progressive Western parties, would not respond fiercely if Russia attacked Ukraine. They would just do their typical moralistic posturing and apply "sanctions". But Russia doesn't seem to care about sanctions anymore, they will go ahead with their military plans whatever sanctions are applied.

The result that we see is that Russia will invade Ukraine and Scholz and his party will block the use of German weapons against Russia and will keep saying Nordstream 2 has no connection with this.
Seriously, Germany should just leave European security policy to France.

[harcha]

i haven't followed politics for the longest time, just a couple of years. but i've never seen sanctions do anything more than feed the sanctioned parties' propaganda machine

[duckzilla]

I have a theory that Putin waited for Merkel's coalition to leave power and hand things over to a coalition led by pacifist SPD. Because troops have been slowly massing at Ukraine's border since April last year, but they intensified close to the moment when the new coalition came into power in Germany.
He must have anticipated that a pacifist party like the SPD, with the hippie flower-power attitude that is typical of progressive Western parties, would not respond fiercely if Russia attacked Ukraine. They would just do their typical moralistic posturing and apply "sanctions". But Russia doesn't seem to care about sanctions anymore, they will go ahead with their military plans whatever sanctions are applied.

The result that we see is that Russia will invade Ukraine and Scholz and his party will block the use of German weapons against Russia and will keep saying Nordstream 2 has no connection with this.
Seriously, Germany should just leave European security policy to France.

There's a lot that has been said about the SPD, but this one might be new. Anyway, I think you misjudge the situation when you believe that Angela Merkel and Olaf Scholz are too different with regard to taking action in general and pacifism in particular.

I think that German policy makers take a sober approach to the entire affair. Germany is de facto dependent on Russian gas, especially during winter. Neither Merkel nor Scholz would want to risk a collapse in energy supply. Further, it is unclear what Putin is trying to do. His massing of military units at the Ukrainian border is somewhat absurd, given that it happens in broad daylight and for everyone visible to see, thereby allowing Ukraine to prepare at least somewhat and western allies to send military supplies. If Putin actually wanted to attack Ukraine, one could assume that he would rather prefer a much faster and more efficient approach as has been the case in the Crimea annexation ("green men" suddenly appeared). Hence, from a sober point of view, an actual military incursion is questionable. The sabre rattling can have a multitude of other reasons. One may simply be to show off "Russian military might" which appears to even let "the West" cower.

I mean... Just look how everyone is talking about some 100k Russian troops at the Ukrainian border. Putin absolutely dominates the headlines and international politics since multiple weeks. There is even growing criticism between the western allies and within their countries based on allegations of not supporting Ukraine and giving in to a warmonger, e.g. the entire debate on whether Germany has to gift military supplies to Ukraine or stopping of NordStream 2. All that is already quite a win for a second-class power like Russia.

What is the most likely outcome of all this? Well, pretty much nothing. Putin is unlikely to invade Ukraine. Ukraine is unlikely to become a NATO member. NordStream 2 is unlikely to be stopped forever. But Putin has played the strongman, which might benefit him in inner-Russian politics as well as giving him some credibility in the eyes of his satellite vassals (Belarus, Kazakhstan, and the like).

[scarm]

Yeah i don't think a Merkel-led government would have really done anything different. I mean look at Söder's statement for a clue.

Tbh with the grand coalition probably even less would have happened as Heiko Maas as foreign minister would have probably been less active and clear than Baerbock.

[Dolan]

Well then I guess there are big parts of the Western political spectrum that reflect a general pacification of population, after decades of economic comfort and security provided by the USA in Europe. Or even some degree of complacency. If things have been comfortable like this until now, why even make any effort for anything, why even fight for anything: any problem has an economic solution, if we need fighters we'll just pay for it. If we need people that do hard physical labour, we'll just pay for it. Everything to create this ring of security and comfort around us, so that we don't have to deal with an outside reality where power politics, hostilities and physical hardship are shaping the world.

Flashbacks to Rome again when the irony of it all is that the Germanic tribes were knocking on the door, pushing the territories from Rome's neighbourhood. They were the barbarians playing military power games at Rome's borders, as the civilised and cosmopolitan Roman opinion saw them.

[princeofcarthage]

. All that is already quite a win for a second-class power like Russia.

So the other day I was just searching the internet for hypothetical situations to see the analysis of random publications and people on quora. The hypothetical scenarios were like what happens if there was war between Germany and France in 2021 or Germany and UK or can India defeat Germany in war and so on. Not my opinion but those of people on quora and many germans included. The resounding consensus is that German military is in pretty bad shape and would most likely get rolled over. Now I knew that the army was in bad shape and there is general reluctance among populace to join military. I also know that germany has the technical know how and can quickly re-arm itself if in situation with public support (though lack of actual experience is concerning). Now this is obviously an exaggeration but a german guy had made a post. "Even vatican city could probably beat our asses" or to the same tune. Now, now, you... have the audacity to call Russia a second class power?!

[princeofcarthage]

Well then I guess there are big parts of the Western political spectrum that reflect a general pacification of population, after decades of economic comfort and security provided by the USA in Europe. Or even some degree of complacency. If things have been comfortable like this until now, why even make any effort for anything, why even fight for anything: any problem has an economic solution, if we need fighters we'll just pay for it. If we need people that do hard physical labour, we'll just pay for it. Everything to create this ring of security and comfort around us, so that we don't have to deal with an outside reality where power politics, hostilities and physical hardship are shaping the world.

Flashbacks to Rome again when the irony of it all is that the Germanic tribes were knocking on the door, pushing the territories from Rome's neighbourhood. They were the barbarians playing military power games at Rome's borders, as the civilised and cosmopolitan Roman opinion saw them.

Germany is in NATO. It only needs to spend on 2% on military expenditures. Having actual military is irrelevant. Uncle Sam takes care of that.

[Dolan]

There was a piece of news a few years ago about this. Germany tried to recruit people from Eastern Europe for their army, because locals weren't that interested. I can't find that piece of news, but I found something similar:

December 27, 2018
Berlin (AFP) - Germany's military chief said Thursday he was considering recruiting in other EU nations to target specialists like IT professionals and medical doctors.
The proposal -- controversial because to critics it evokes a "mercenary army" rather than a force of loyal citizen-soldiers -- is "one option" being looked at, General Eberhard Zorn told the Funke newspaper group.
Germany abolished military conscription for adult males in 2011 and has in recent years sometimes struggled to find enough suitable recruits, leading it to launch marketing campaigns in traditional and social media.
The possible new recruitment drive would target the estimated 530,000 citizens from other EU countries aged 18 to 30 who already live in Germany.
To enlist in the German armed forces, they would have to be German speakers, present a police certificate of good conduct, and pledge a commitment to the German state, said the report.

[Dolan]

Germany is in NATO. It only needs to spend on 2% on military expenditures. Having actual military is irrelevant. Uncle Sam takes care of that.

The 2% is a guideline adopted by NATO in 2006, before the financial crisis. It doesn't have any legal force in itself, but some NATO countries enshrined it in law or national security plans, so it looks more like an official commitment. And this 2% is mostly spent by each country on its own forces.

Theoretically, yeah, Germany could just spend it all on mercs and on equipment bought from Uncle Sam or other weapon makers. It is possible that most of the citizens of a country with a comfortable economic situation would feel it's too much hassle to join the military and it's better to pay some other people to provide that as a service. Something like "hardship and physical risk as a service for defending the country".

[princeofcarthage]

Yeah, joining German military is not interesting I figure. France, UK and US actually send soldiers on missions. Their intelligence units are also active. As an intelligence analyst what is even your job in Germany? I don't even suppose that BND is involved in actual intelligence and counter intelligence, at least not to the level of France and UK. There are most likely just involved in data transfer and making some reports. I mean Germany is usually not involved in many things, crime levels are extremely low and foreign threat even terrorist threat is almost negligible. Any person who is bright enough to join IT, medical doctor and so on being in german army is a pretty boring job. I don't suppose the pay is also that great.

[scarm]

You guys are speculating a lot. Fact of the matter is that Germans don't have a strong bond with their army, as a result of (who would have thought) WW2. The Bundeswehr usually just isn't much of an issue at all here. Military matters are somewhat of a "taboo". Being a soldier isn't exactly a high prestige job here, as it for example is in the US. And THAT in conjunction with universal conscription being abolished is why the Bundeswehr has been starting extensive social media campaigns and such to try and maintain a healthy level of recruits.

And the wages in the Bundeswehr are totally fine. The ceiling is theoretically a bit higher in the free market, but Soldiers essentially get wages and benefits similar to civil servants and those aren't shabby at all, and most importantly very safe and steady income.

[duckzilla]

So the other day I was just searching the internet for hypothetical situations to see the analysis of random publications and people on quora. The hypothetical scenarios were like what happens if there was war between Germany and France in 2021 or Germany and UK or can India defeat Germany in war and so on. Not my opinion but those of people on quora and many germans included. The resounding consensus is that German military is in pretty bad shape and would most likely get rolled over. Now I knew that the army was in bad shape and there is general reluctance among populace to join military. I also know that germany has the technical know how and can quickly re-arm itself if in situation with public support (though lack of actual experience is concerning). Now this is obviously an exaggeration but a german guy had made a post. "Even vatican city could probably beat our asses" or to the same tune. Now, now, you... have the audacity to call Russia a second class power?!

wow such audacity...

I don't define "power" solely based on the number of military personnel. Russia invests a large proportion of its GDP in its military and security forces. Everything else is neglected horribly, making it a second class power overall.

[scarm]

It is also kinda funny to use "oh i read a thread on quora where some guys where discussing who would win: India or Germany" as an argument for anything lol.

Though yes, public opinion is that our forces aren't necessarily well prepared, disasters like the HKG36 which were very present in media reinforced this. And as far as i am aware this is also the opinion of many military specialists and members of the Bundeswehr themselves, who prtially are buying equipment privately (such as helmets).

[Horsemen]

ww3 is literally going to start no wonder TQQQ is tanking 35%

[Dolan]

[Goodspeed]

Lol yes that will surely convince western europe to take action. Thanks devs, you're making a difference

[Horsemen]

nah europoors will not do anything, they value their social welfare system too much to invest in their military. german tanks literally fire blank rounds nowadays

[Dolan]

nah europoors will not do anything, they value their social welfare system too much to invest in their military. german tanks literally fire blank rounds nowadays

From https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/10/pdf/pr-2020-104-en.pdf

[iNcog]

europe so poor haha

[princeofcarthage]

How does spending less on military is any indication of wealth? Luxembourg is one of the richest nation in the world with least spend on military.

[princeofcarthage]

I don't define "power" solely based on the number of military personnel. Russia invests a large proportion of its GDP in its military and security forces. Everything else is neglected horribly, making it a second class power overall.

No one defines one's power based on number of military personnel. Russia literally invests half a point more than US in % terms on GDP. US spends 3.4% While Russia spends 3.9%. It is not that too much.