Nagorno karabakh conflict

[voigt1240]

What are you thoughts and predictions for the ongoing conflict going on between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And how will Turkey and Russia try to dictate the ongoing conflict to their advantage?

Just today the big Turk shot down an Armenian warplane over armenian territory according to Armenia's defence ministry.
The region is getting a little too interesting.
We saw full scale conflicts back in 1992-1994 hopefully it wont come to that again.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0929 ... ne-turkey/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-arme ... 6K0KN?il=0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict

[Dolan]

It's a local conflict that has the potential to become a proxy conflict for Russia and Turkey.

Russia has an ambivalent policy towards Turkey, they want to keep ostensibly cooperative relations with Turkey because Turks control access to the Mediterranean Sea for Russian ships coming from the Black Sea. On the other hand, Turkey is Assad's enemy and has been fomenting conflict in Northern Syria which irritated Russia. So, I think, on one hand Russia would like Turkey to be weakened and destabilised but they'd also like to not turn Turkey into a hostile country because they wouldn't want to have trouble sending ships in the Mediterranean.

For Turkey, this is a big opportunity to flex its regional power ambitions and secure more client states around them.

Other than that, this is a bit like a Balkan situation. It's an older frozen conflict that has been periodically reawakened. Not sure if this has the potential to escalate. There's been at least one major border skirmish per year, during the last few years (India-Pakistan, China-India, Armenia-Azerbaidjan), but none of them actually turned into a fullblown war.
If the big regional powers have an interest in this to escalate, it will escalate. If not, they'll get told to shut it.

[Dolan]

[Dolan]

The real question is if Armenia is going to retake C0nstantinople and gib it back to Greece.

Then this conflcit would solve itself.

[voigt1240]

Remove kebab

[gibson]

I thought this was gonna be a thread about some obscure star wars thing

[Good ol Ivan]

It's kinda amazing Armenia has managed to beat Azerbaijan and hold them off for decades.
Armenia is a poor landlocked country with no resources. Azerbaijan has 3 times the population of Armenia, lots of oil (i.e. money), and Turkey has been actively supporting Azerbaijan since always. Russia does kinda support Armenia but Russia is also a pretty shitty ally tbh. If I'm not mistaken, in a past conflict Russia had no problem supporting Azerbaijan once Armenia managed to get an upper hand. Russian politicians have always supported Armenia in name, but they don't want to risk triggering a shitstorm by getting too involved. Putin is more interested in "stability" (which means trading and having some influence in both nations) than actually arming up the Armenians and helping them out in their wars. I can only wonder how shitty Azeri military must be to still lose to Armenia lol.

My personal prediction is that nothing will change. Neither side seems strong or capable enough to do much but launching some drone strikes in the border. And Turkish military hasn't accomplished much not even in Syria, a neighboring war-torn country where their army actually got directly involved. In Armenia they are probably even more useless.

But who knows, maybe Azerbaijan has learned a thing or two from the last conflict and now is far better prepared to fight Armenia. Maybe Russia is pissed off and actually will get involved in a proxywar now that Turkey has become a nuisance for all major regional/global powers (Americans, Iranians, Arabs and Russians themselves). Other than Turks and Azeris themselves, no one else will really mind if Putin gives Erdogan a spanking.

So yeah I guess technically anything's possible.

I thought this was gonna be a thread about some obscure star wars thing

Armenia and Azerbaijan are right next to Georgia. The conflict may soon extend all the way up to Tennessee. Be worried.

[harcha]

I thought this was gonna be a thread about some obscure star wars thing

i thought it was something about new natives in aoe3

[Challenger_Marco]

Hope it doesn't turn into world war 3.

[voigt1240]

Hope it doesn't turn into world war 3.

That would just complete this year fully.

[Good ol Ivan]

Hope it doesn't turn into world war 3.

Yeah I doubt it
Armenia is about as relevant as the TWC multiplayer (as in, without TAD) in 2020.

[Mr_Bramboy]

The one thing I'm worried about is the accessibility of the Baku circuit in Azerbaijan in 2021.

[voigt1240]

There has Been a temporary ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan after 2 weeks of fighting and hundreds of casualties. The details have yet to come fully out, but I assume Azerbaijan will keep whatever territory they have captured. This was negotiated by Russia which shows both its leverage over both sides to do it and its interests in keeping the status quo.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54488386

Edit: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54488386
this article states that both Armenia and Azerbaijan have accused the other side of breaking the ceasefire almost immediately after it came into effect.

Interesting to see if the situation in the area will start to die down for good.

[Dolan]

That region is like a volcano that periodically boils over and erupts.
Russia didn't want a wave of refugees to pour out of Armenia or Azerbaidjan, if shit got too real.
So they preferred to step in and stop it before it got to that point.

[Djigit]

That region is like a volcano that periodically boils over and erupts.
Russia didn't want a wave of refugees to pour out of Armenia or Azerbaidjan, if shit got too real.
So they preferred to step in and stop it before it got to that point.

Do you think that's for this reason Russia intervened? Armenia doesn't share any border with Russia. The displaced population would need to cross Georgia (not an enemy country to Armenia but some animosity exists). As for the Azeris, they would rather flee to Turkey. In Mother Russia, Caucasians are called negros after all.

I can't point it out, but there has to be another motivation for the Russian diplomatic intervention...if there's any. As long as this situation continues, whether it's conflictual or not, it's all good for Blyatland.

[Dolan]

@Djigit Yea, it's the same as the Middle East and North Africa situation for Europe. Europe had an interest in seeing those regions stabilised, so they don't flood Euro borders with refugees (either real or fake ones), even if they had no direct border with them. It's not like those refugees would settle for Turkey, the first stable state in their path. Nope, they wanted to go the whole hog, get that comfy situation in Sweden or Germany, which they would never get in Turkey.

It's the same with Russia and those ex-Soviet republics. Everyone who migrates in search of a job or a better life from those countries around Russia (including those that don't have a direct border, like Armenia), migrates to a big Russian city.
Ask Sargsyan if you don't believe me.

Also Russia wouldn't miss an opportunity to flex as a powerbroker in this region, rather than let Turkey get that cherry on the cake. Later on, this will give them enough geopolitical goodboi points on the world stage, they will say "look, Russia solves conflicts, we're such a peaceful state, only crazy people would think we poisoned some goobers in the UK some years ago and one political opponent back home". It helps them break out of their international isolation to get involved wherever they can to flex some influence.

[Djigit]

@Djigit Yea, it's the same as the Middle East and North Africa situation for Europe. Europe had an interest in seeing those regions stabilised, so they don't flood Euro borders with refugees (either real or fake ones), even if they had no direct border with them. It's not like those refugees would settle for Turkey, the first stable state in their path. Nope, they wanted to go the whole hog, get that comfy situation in Sweden or Germany, which they would never get in Turkey.

It's the same with Russia and those ex-Soviet republics. Everyone who migrates in search of a job or a better life from those countries around Russia (including those that don't have a direct border, like Armenia), migrates to a big Russian city.
Ask Sargsyan if you don't believe me.

Also Russia wouldn't miss an opportunity to flex as a powerbroker in this region, rather than let Turkey get that cherry on the cake. Later on, this will give them enough geopolitical goodboi points on the world stage, they will say "look, Russia solves conflicts, we're such a peaceful state, only crazy people would think we poisoned some goobers in the UK some years ago and one political opponent back home". It helps them break out of their international isolation to get involved wherever they can flex some influence.

I'd be more tempted to say your last paragraph is one of the main reasons of this diplomatic intervention. Like you said, Russia needs these goodboi points®, as it's time for some election meddling - for which it should receive a relatively mild criticism - and there is a risk Germany pulls the plug on the Nord Stream 2.

I get your point. But there is really no pressure on Russia to welcome future fugees (unlike the EU members). Even if Armenians can stay for a month or so in Russia without VISA, Kremlin would prevent any newcomers to set foot in Blyatland if it wanted.

[voigt1240]

[Dolan]

I'd be more tempted to say your last paragraph iscone of the main reasons of this diolomatic intervention. Like you said, Russia needs these goodboi points®, as it's time for some election meddling - for which it should receive a relatively mild criticism - and there is a risk Germany pulls the plug on the Nord Stream 2.

I get your point. But there is really no pressure on Russia to welcome future fugees (unlike the EU members). Even if Armenians can stay for a month or so in Russia without VISA, Kremlin would prevent any newcomers to set foot in Blyatland if it wanted.

It's kind of a mixed situation. Russia wouldn't say no to some more economic migrants, because their own population is shrinking. That's why Russia has been desperately trying to reward gopniks to have more kids, they're even giving them moneys to encourage Ruskie to multiply more. But such a policy takes time to show some results (those results aren't even that great, at best they might stop shrinking, when they need to grow).

Until then, their economy needs more workers and those can only come from those ex-Soviet satellite states. A nice, slow and steady inflow of cheap labour is oke with Russia, a big wave of crazed fugees running for their lives across the border would not be so хорошо. ( Kinda makes you wonder if Russia is not doing something special to make sure those states around them stay poor, so more cheap labour migrates to Russia.)

[Sargsyan]

Russia intervened because they started to feel the threat of Turkish influence on Caucasus region and also the deployment of terrorists by Turkey to fight on Azeris side had it's toll on this. This could further result a rebellion of the northern caucasus muslims that are part of Russia and border Azerbaijan. There isn't going to be any immigration from Armenia as a result of this war, since this war de jure is being fought between Azerbaijan and Nagorno karabagh and there's no way it's gonna turn into a war between Armenia versus Turkey and Azerbaijan since in that case Russia is going to get involved due to the alliance we have through OSCE. Turkey is not just going to step over this line. Knock on the wood if things get no so well for us we can definitely accommodate Armenians of Nagorno Karabagh since the population of the republic is only 100k people and we have plenty of land for them.

[voigt1240]

The region lies on the crossroads of empires. Which for centuries have been meddling in the affairs of the region and continue to do so to this very day.
It looks like Turkey is just returning to pre-AKP neo-Ottomanism Turkey. Human rights abuses and tensions with neighboring nations are nothing new. Turkey invaded Cyprus in the '70s and almost went to war with Greece on several occasions. Several pilot died in the '90s over the Aegean. They are returning to their old role of being a regional power that deals with other regional powers on their own terms.
Which we have been seeing in Syria, Cyprys, the newly tensions with greece and just recently in Armena/Azerbaijan.

[Amsel_]

I wonder what's going on through Armenia's mind here. Why are they so intent on holding onto a region they agreed to give to Azerbaijan? Does dragging things out help them in some way, or are they just too proud to 'lose' to their rival?

[fightinfrenchman]

I wonder what's going on through Armenia's mind here. Why are they so intent on holding onto a region they agreed to give to Azerbaijan? Does dragging things out help them in some way, or are they just too proud to 'lose' to their rival?

I straight up misread this as saying "I wonder what's going on through America's mind here"

[Sargsyan]

I wonder what's going on through Armenia's mind here. Why are they so intent on holding onto a region they agreed to give it to Azerbaijan? Does dragging things out help them in some way, or are they just too proud to 'lose' to their rival?

if you did a little research you'd get the answer to your question. From where did you come up with the fact that we agreed to give it Azerbaijan ? That region was given to them by the communists during Soviet era and was always predominantly populated by Armenians. So after USSR collapsed Nagorno Karabagh people had a referendum and declared their independence from Azerbaijan.

[Amsel_]

I wonder what's going on through Armenia's mind here. Why are they so intent on holding onto a region they agreed to give to Azerbaijan? Does dragging things out help them in some way, or are they just too proud to 'lose' to their rival?

I straight up misread this as saying "I wonder what's going on through America's mind here"

>that feel when you're the only country in the world that exists

I wonder what's going on through Armenia's mind here. Why are they so intent on holding onto a region they agreed to give it to Azerbaijan? Does dragging things out help them in some way, or are they just too proud to 'lose' to their rival?

if you did a little research you'd get the answer to your question. From where did you come up with the fact that we agreed to give Azerbaijan ? That region was given to them by the communists during Soviet era and was always predominantly populated by Armenians. So after USSR collapsed Nagorno Karabagh people had a referendum and declared their independence from Azerbaijan.

Didn't the Madrid Principles agree to transfer control of the region?