The post-WW2 world order is over

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Nauru Dolan
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by Dolan »

Just to clarify, I'm definitely not saying that the post-WW2 world order ends because of this single event. No, far from that. This is just one event among many. This process of estrangement between the Anglophone part of the West and the European one started a long time ago, probably during Obama's presidency. And now we're just seeing things flare up and show clearer signs that there's not much synchronisation anymore between what the Anglosphere does in terms of defence and foreign policy and what Europe does. Hence my argument that "the West" has become a meaningless concept in international relations.
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by princeofcarthage »

Just a correction, most news outlets peg the French contract at $90 billion. Only one outlet specifically mentioned $90 billion AUD which is also ¬$66 billion. Not sure which is correct but apparently $40-$50 billion was the original cost which was increased to $90 billion. In any case $90 billion is probably too much for 12 submarines that comes to ¬$7.5 billion per sub making it probably the costliest one ever built.
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by occamslightsaber »

harcha wrote:@iNcog the economy doesn't have a ready substitute for those subs. they're probably gonna have to discount them now for anyone to buy not-new subs, fire some people in the factory and worst of all - the board will not get that juicy bonus for a few years.
Well, where are these subs now?
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by wardyb1 »

Dolan wrote:
wardyb1 wrote:Please stop talking about anything related to Australia and the submarine deal when it is quite clear you do not understand what you are talking about. If you are going to try and post paragraphs of your takes, at least make sure they are researched and not based of headlines and assumptions. Please. Thank you.
I don't think I posted anything about the internal reasons why Australia decided this. I'm sure there's a long backstory on why things turned out this way, but I didn't claim I'm familiar with it. My post talked about mostly how this decision looks like here in Europe and how France reacted.
But yeah I read some things mentioned about the Australian government changing their minds because they did some analysis and it resulted the subs built with French designs didn't have enough range, or something like that. Didn't invest much time into researching this on Australia's side, though, because I'm not sure that changes much about the subject of this topic.
I really can't be bothered to spell it out but this is where you go wrong and you say it yourself. There is a long back story, you aren't familiar with it and you haven't researched it. Why would you then extrapolate some bizarre new world order thesis, based on it? Why does it matter how it looks in Europe if like most foreign policy, most laymen have absolutely no idea what is going on? Oh and you haven't researched the Australian side of things, yet you are confident it doesn't affect the topic. How would you know it doesn't affect the topic if you have researched it? What a bizarre logical jump. Just makes no sense.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by Dolan »

wardyb1 wrote:There is a long back story, you aren't familiar with it and you haven't researched it. Why would you then extrapolate some bizarre new world order thesis, based on it?
Because it's of no essential consequence what are the reasons why the Australian govt made such a decision. What matters is the political effect in France (and possibly Europe). So why would I dig deep into the decisional process that underlied such a decision if it has no actual effect on the bigger picture.
Let me clarify two things:

1. I don't think the Aus govt did this out of hostility towards France. I think it was just pure self-interest. They wanted to serve US interests and by doing that to give the military establishment in Washington a strong reason to feel a duty to defend Australia in case shit hits the fan with China. And the best incentive is to feed the military-industrial complex in the USA. That's how it works. I mean, as client states of the US we should know. We're doing this a lot in Eastern Europe too, buying up their decommissioned fighter jets and helicopters from previous generations so that Uncle Sam's political establishment has enough of an incentive to offer us "security guarantees" as diplomatic speak calls it. Australia made its choice at some point that it's better to put its eggs in one basket with the US and the UK, rather than stick with that contract with France. Probably because they thought in case of a shit hits the fan scenario, Uncle Sam has better global coverage with nuclear subs and missiles. So why not give them protection money. It's called "strengthening relations" or "security partnership", but it is what it is.

2. I already explicitly said my argument/thesis wasn't based only on this diplomatic incident, but a series of multiple events and trends. So it's a pattern I noticed for some years already. but this event finally convinced me this is not just a passing phase, it's a real geopolitical shift. Other events from the past that signalled the same conclusion that the post-WW2 world order is over:
- Obama's clear focus on prioritising Asia and the Pacific in his foreign policy (the TTP made to isolate China, he sent Hillary in her first trip to Asia, the first leader he met was Japan's etc)
- Trump's complete hostility towards Europe: he cancelled TTIP, started a trade war with the EU, antagonised lots of Euro leaders, constantly berated them on defence spending etc
- the USA's withdrawal from Afghanistan which was done without consultation or coordination with Europe, they just pulled out leaving everyone else scrambling to get out in time
- Brexit decoupled Britain from continental Europe politics, which is why now they're seeking alliances elsewhere
- the USA's foreign policy approach of aggressively trying to contain China, while goading Europe to simply be a follower in this adventure, without any consultation whatsoever - how are we allies if you only come here to ask us to follow you in yet another geopolitical adventure, but when it comes to our interests, you're telling us we shouldn't buy gas from Russia, as if we told you that you shouldn't buy shit made in China either or else we're gonna sanction you
- when Trump was in power, there was even a concerted effort to discredit the EU by him and Farage in the UK, which is weird if you're an ally, right? why would you actively work on sabotaging your supposed allies? maybe because you don't believe in that post-WW2 order status quo anymore
- the CIA has been spying on European leaders for years, a disclosure which came out during the Snowden scandal, iirc - why would you spy the personal phones of Euro leaders if they're allies
- this latest spat between France and Australia which just comes to confirm that there's a trend at play here, not just some disparate events - this partnership between the US/UK/Aus shows that they share some common geostrategic goals and they're fine if that involves cutting out France from a deal that was already agreed a few years ago (according to that document I linked before).
Why does it matter how it looks in Europe if like most foreign policy, most laymen have absolutely no idea what is going on?
Because it's election year in France next year and I'm sure that's a big factor in why the French are getting so agitated about this. They want to avoid looking like a bunch of stooges. I'm sure Macron's political adversaries will exploit this with gusto. The French have a very developed culture of public debate, in which lots of sophisticated arguments are used. They really don't talk about issues like tabloid press does in the UK. In France intellectuals play a big role, something completely unheard of in the Anglosphere. Like who the fuck invites philosophers at a political debate in the USA? Nobody. The French do it, their big brains are everywhere in the media weighing in on every major political issue. So political issues in France are surely not discussed only at layman level.
Oh and you haven't researched the Australian side of things, yet you are confident it doesn't affect the topic. How would you know it doesn't affect the topic if you have researched it? What a bizarre logical jump. Just makes no sense.
Because frankly what does it matter. The Australian government will find any reason to justify this in some benign way, that makes it seem like "it's nothing personal bro". So public justifications won't even explain much. I thought everyone mistrusted politicians and their public explanations. Now we're supposed to take the Australian government's at face value? What does it matter to France that, after a few years, the Australian government suddenly realised the French submarine designs wouldn't be adequate. Did it take them 5 years to reach the conclusion they wouldn't have enough range? Cmon, we're not stupid, there were other reasons for this U-turn and those are strategic. They just thought it's a better value for money to bribe Washington than Paris, in the event of a fallout with China.
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

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More arguments that the post-WW2 order is over:

- the decline of international institutions - the UN is a complete failure and it's just a stage for the big powers to hold the other powers in check by blocking the UN council or negotiating something in exchange for not using their veto
- globalisation is retrenching - part of the reason why there are shortages of products or delays in deliveries is because there's a truck/lorry drivers shortage in Europe but also because China has increased prices for overseas shipping up to 10 times - these costs are distributed per products shipped from China - which leads to a scramble to replace some of those goods from other sources, closer to where consumption takes place - this will regionalise globalisation, turning the world into regional blocs
- multilateralism and internationalism are discredited - everywhere new alliances are forming on a bilateral or trilateral basis, international cooperation takes a backseat in the new world order
- anti-migration sentiment is rising, leading to increased focus on borders
- China and Russia are working on completely dropping the dollar from their mutual trade, other countries are following suit - Russia has increased its euro reserves and greatly reduced its dollar holdings
- Germany will be forced by this new reality of a USA decoupling from Europe to start arming itself again, which was the whole reason of creating the EU in order to keep Germany under control - nobody cares about that anymore, in fact EU leaders converge on the idea that Europe has to start building its own military force and Germany, as the biggest EU economy, will have to be at the center of this process of rearmament
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by Horsemen »

DO YOU KNOW THE MUFFIN MAN[/u][/b]
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by lejend »

Dolan wrote:- Germany will be forced by this new reality of a USA decoupling from Europe to start arming itself again, which was the whole reason of creating the EU in order to keep Germany under control - nobody cares about that anymore, in fact EU leaders converge on the idea that Europe has to start building its own military force and Germany, as the biggest EU economy, will have to be at the center of this process of rearmament
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by iNcog »

lejend you have such a boomer sense of humor sometimes lol
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by pecelot »

Jam wrote:China has been kicked around by other imperial powers for a long time and now act like it's their turn to be the imperial power.
that ethos is certainly present; like the Dolchstoß
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by pecelot »

Dolan wrote: - the CIA has been spying on European leaders for years, a disclosure which came out during the Snowden scandal, iirc - why would you spy the personal phones of Euro leaders if they're allies
can't it be attributed to something you more or less described as being drunk with power? for me it seems like it was done to maintain dominance and keep others in check if necessary, something of an overprotective dad; as much as it's unethical and representative of the American attitude towards, well, the world, I don't see that much malicious intent there
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by harcha »

pecelot wrote:
Dolan wrote: - the CIA has been spying on European leaders for years, a disclosure which came out during the Snowden scandal, iirc - why would you spy the personal phones of Euro leaders if they're allies
can't it be attributed to something you more or less described as being drunk with power? for me it seems like it was done to maintain dominance and keep others in check if necessary, something of an overprotective dad; as much as it's unethical and representative of the American attitude towards, well, the world, I don't see that much malicious intent there
i don't agree with this reasoning but i agree with the idea that this is not very notable. i think all of the superpowers spy on each other, on allies as well as enemies just to make sure that they are not out of the loop. is it ok if everyone does it? probably no, but it's also not scandalous
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by Dolan »

pecelot wrote:can't it be attributed to something you more or less described as being drunk with power? for me it seems like it was done to maintain dominance and keep others in check if necessary, something of an overprotective dad; as much as it's unethical and representative of the American attitude towards, well, the world, I don't see that much malicious intent there
I don't think we spy on the Americans, at least I highly doubt it EU or NATO Euro countries even try to infiltrate moles in the CIA or to wiretap the president's communications. It's not that it's not doable, but if they get found out it would cause too big a scandal and it's just not worth it. It would breed mistrust between the intelligence services of allied countries.
And that's what probably happened since the Snowden revelations.

There are 2 possibilities:
- if this has been going on for decades, then yeah having this revealed now doesn't show any particular pattern
- if it's a more recent development, then it strengthens the points made by this topic, it shows something significant, that recently the USA has stopped trusting Germany (and other Euro countries) when it comes to making strategic decisions and decided to snoop on their phones
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

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I realise it might have sounded like a Stockholm syndrome symptom. My point was that it seemed only natural for a major power, given its resources, to attempt such heinous acts, despite the “democratic” façade. However, you'd only expect this at a lower level, like, perhaps, Central American countries. Not necessarily Germany...
All in all, there are worse things to do to your ally, I'd imagine. Again, I'm not saying this is excusable, but not entirely surprising and something we'll have to put up with.
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

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Another article documenting how China is using debt traps to spread its influence around the world

China: Big spender or loan shark?
Many Chinese state developments loans also demand unusual forms of collateral. Increasingly, Chinese loans appear to require borrowers to promise hard cash earned from selling natural resources.

A deal with Venezuela, for example, demands the Venezuelan borrower deposit the foreign currency earned by selling oil directly into a bank account controlled by China. If a debt payment is missed, the Chinese lender can immediately withdraw the cash waiting in the account.

"It really seems like kind of a bread-and-butter strategy they use to signal to their borrower that 'We're the big boss around here'," Brad Parks explains. "Their message is: 'You're going to repay us before anyone else because we're the only ones asking for this prized possession'.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by Dolan »

nice, didn't know we still have some brains here 🙂

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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by duckzilla »

Dolan wrote:Another article documenting how China is using debt traps to spread its influence around the world

China: Big spender or loan shark?
Many Chinese state developments loans also demand unusual forms of collateral. Increasingly, Chinese loans appear to require borrowers to promise hard cash earned from selling natural resources.

A deal with Venezuela, for example, demands the Venezuelan borrower deposit the foreign currency earned by selling oil directly into a bank account controlled by China. If a debt payment is missed, the Chinese lender can immediately withdraw the cash waiting in the account.

"It really seems like kind of a bread-and-butter strategy they use to signal to their borrower that 'We're the big boss around here'," Brad Parks explains. "Their message is: 'You're going to repay us before anyone else because we're the only ones asking for this prized possession'.
To me, this sounds more like a problem with governments selling off their countries' assets to finance investments that are obvious to never pay off in the future. China acts as lender of last resort and takes a collateral. The quote says that these collaterals are "unusual", but it is not like they are not unheard of. A very famous example would be Jakob Fugger, who is likely to have been the richest European ever. He gave many loans to the Holy Roman Emperor from the Habsburg dynasty. As a collateral, he was guaranteed the output of the famous Schwaz silver mine in Tyrol.
Whatever is written above: this is no financial advice.

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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by Dolan »

To me it sounds like 21st century colonialism but since it's not done by the usual suspects, nobody whines.
Probably because redditors and the moralistic tweetosphere are too busy playing with their made in China iphones.
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by fightinfrenchman »

Dolan wrote:To me it sounds like 21st century colonialism but since it's not done by the usual suspects, nobody whines.
Probably because redditors and the moralistic tweetosphere are too busy playing with their made in China iphones.
You strike me as the kind of person who would be an annoying "cust"
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

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At least I didn't make a bunch of decent people liebe
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

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https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719 ... 86e1f843fb
Taylor Fravel, an expert on Chinese nuclear weapons policy who was unaware of the test, said a hypersonic glide vehicle armed with a nuclear warhead could help China “negate” US missile defence systems which are designed to destroy incoming ballistic missiles.

“Hypersonic glide vehicles . . . fly at lower trajectories and can manoeuvre in flight, which makes them hard to track and destroy,” said Fravel, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

US military officials in recent months have warned about China’s growing nuclear capabilities, particularly after the release of satellite imagery that showed it was building more than 200 intercontinental missile silos. China is not bound by any arms-control deals and has been unwilling to engage the US in talks about its nuclear arsenal and policy.

Last month, Frank Kendall, US air force secretary, hinted that Beijing was developing a new weapon. He said China had made huge advances, including the “potential for global strikes . . . from space”.
“If you use that kind of an approach, you don’t have to use a traditional ICBM trajectory. It’s a way to avoid defences and missile warning systems,” said Kendall.

Two of the people familiar with the Chinese test said the weapon could, in theory, fly over the South Pole. That would pose a big challenge for the US military because its missiles defence systems are focused on the northern polar route.
China generally announces the launch of Long March rockets — the type used to launch the hypersonic glide vehicle into orbit — but it conspicuously concealed the August launch.
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

Post by princeofcarthage »

Yeah, it's not news, there are reports for long time about this. US is behind in hypersonic tech. Russia already has working weapon, India has tested, China has tested, India and Russia are co-developing one system, North Korea has tested according to reports. But it pales in comparison to US laser/energy weapons. In theory those weapons make the entire arsenal of world's military forces a no threat/redundant.

One of the more interesting news is actually that China has become the first country to create proton(?) out of nothing. While the energy requirements are still huge and we are still decades from any significant civilian use, its interesting to see if China accelerates military applications for it. Imagine a slim untrackable missile drops over New York and then all of a sudden you have a gigatons nuclear explosion.
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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

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Re: The post-WW2 world order is over

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bad meme, the music doesn't fit at all

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