Ukraine Invaded By Russia

[Mr_Bramboy]

Just watched Biden's speech. The way I understand it, he's saying that these new sanctions will take months to be effective and that the US is fortifying NATO countries. In other words, he has accepted the fall of Ukraine and is now looking forward to protecting the Eastern NATO countries. Very concerning. He also refused to answer the question of why Putin himself is not personally sanctioned and ruled out excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system. Hopefully, the EU can deliver a harsher response.

I can see this war ending with civil uprisings across Russia if it goes on for long enough. Let's hope their people do not suffer at the hands of a madman.

[fightinfrenchman]

He also refused to answer the question of why Putin himself is not personally sanctioned and ruled out excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system. Hopefully, the EU can deliver a harsher response.

Didn't he specifically say Russia wasn't being excluded from SWIFT because European countries weren't on board?

[n0el]

Just watched Biden's speech. The way I understand it, he's saying that these new sanctions will take months to be effective and that the US is fortifying NATO countries. In other words, he has accepted the fall of Ukraine and is now looking forward to protecting the Eastern NATO countries. Very concerning. He also refused to answer the question of why Putin himself is not personally sanctioned and ruled out excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system. Hopefully, the EU can deliver a harsher response.

I can see this war ending with civil uprisings across Russia if it goes on for long enough. Let's hope their people do not suffer at the hands of a madman.

Why should the US escalate this?

[fei123456]

Anyway, the Europe won't rely on US that much, from this day on. Biden just do nothing, and Trump says he will quit NATO.
We may see Germany re-arm itself after nearly 80 years. Interesting.

[Dolan]

He also refused to answer the question of why Putin himself is not personally sanctioned and ruled out excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system. Hopefully, the EU can deliver a harsher response.

Didn't he specifically say Russia wasn't being excluded from SWIFT because European countries weren't on board?

The problem with cutting them off from Swift right now is that there are banks, investors, individuals with money stuck in Russia, that can't be pulled out very fast without significant losses.
My hunch is that the Swift disconnection will be done when they manage to evacuate enough of their Western funds from Russia so that they don't become unable to get their money out of the country anymore.
Blocking Russia from Swift also blocks whatever Western/US/Euro funds are there right atm.
So this is likely to take time. It shows that those investors/banks etc haven't taken the threat of invasion seriously.
As usual banks always have this attitude that whatever happens, they need to make a profit even during a war.

[princeofcarthage]

He also refused to answer the question of why Putin himself is not personally sanctioned and ruled out excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system. Hopefully, the EU can deliver a harsher response.

Didn't he specifically say Russia wasn't being excluded from SWIFT because European countries weren't on board?

The problem with cutting them off from Swift right now is that there are banks, investors, individuals with money stuck in Russia, that can't be pulled out very fast without significant losses.
My hunch is that the Swift disconnection will be done when they manage to evacuate enough of their Western funds from Russia so that they don't become unable to get their money out of the country anymore.
Blocking Russia from Swift also blocks whatever Western/US/Euro funds are there right atm.
So this is likely to take time. It shows that those investors/banks etc haven't taken the threat of invasion seriously.
As usual banks always have this attitude that whatever happens, they need to make a profit even during a war.

They didn't cut Russia from SWIFT is because EU still needs to pay for gas and oil somehow

[Dolan]

Russia hasn't been making gas shipments for some time, I think. Currently most of Europe is supplying from reserves, if I'm not mistaken.
At least that's what Russia's Gazprom reported a while back, when they were asked by the German media if they made any plans to ship more gas beyond January.
They said they haven't.

[RefluxSemantic]

He also refused to answer the question of why Putin himself is not personally sanctioned and ruled out excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system. Hopefully, the EU can deliver a harsher response.

Didn't he specifically say Russia wasn't being excluded from SWIFT because European countries weren't on board?

The problem with cutting them off from Swift right now is that there are banks, investors, individuals with money stuck in Russia, that can't be pulled out very fast without significant losses.
My hunch is that the Swift disconnection will be done when they manage to evacuate enough of their Western funds from Russia so that they don't become unable to get their money out of the country anymore.
Blocking Russia from Swift also blocks whatever Western/US/Euro funds are there right atm.
So this is likely to take time. It shows that those investors/banks etc haven't taken the threat of invasion seriously.
As usual banks always have this attitude that whatever happens, they need to make a profit even during a war.

Let those greedy bastards have their money stuck. I don't have empathy for people like that.

[Mr_Bramboy]

Just watched Biden's speech. The way I understand it, he's saying that these new sanctions will take months to be effective and that the US is fortifying NATO countries. In other words, he has accepted the fall of Ukraine and is now looking forward to protecting the Eastern NATO countries. Very concerning. He also refused to answer the question of why Putin himself is not personally sanctioned and ruled out excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system. Hopefully, the EU can deliver a harsher response.

I can see this war ending with civil uprisings across Russia if it goes on for long enough. Let's hope their people do not suffer at the hands of a madman.

Why should the US escalate this?

Because Poland and Taiwan are next. No one is talking about boots on the ground in Ukraine. But the sanctions are mild.

[comradecommissar]

Russia hasn't been making gas shipments for some time, I think. Currently most of Europe is supplying from reserves, if I'm not mistaken.
At least that's what Russia's Gazprom reported a while back, when they were asked by the German media if they made any plans to ship more gas beyond January.
They said they haven't.

This isn't true. The gas supplies are going on, including through pipelines that run through Ukraine.

[Dolan]

Russia hasn't been making gas shipments for some time, I think. Currently most of Europe is supplying from reserves, if I'm not mistaken.
At least that's what Russia's Gazprom reported a while back, when they were asked by the German media if they made any plans to ship more gas beyond January.
They said they haven't.

This isn't true. The gas supplies are going on, including through pipelines that run through Ukraine.

Gazprom said that in January, when asked by the press:

https://radiosputnik-ria-ru.translate.goog/20220117/gazprom-1768241541.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=ro&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Apparently these shipments come in tranches, so anything that currently gets shipped must have been booked and paid for months ago.
So what the piece of news I linked above probably means is that no new shipments have been booked for beyond January.

[callentournies]

War really gets the juices going.

[scarm]

Military personell seems to think (judging by the info we have) that many of Russia's troops are indeed quite unprofessional and weak, as that training video from a few weeks ago suggested. Doesn't seem to change the general judgement that Ukraine is likely going to be overwhelmed in relatively short time.

[duckzilla]

Would be nice if it was the case. We can assess it in a few days or weeks. Currently, it is very difficult to separate reality from propaganda from both sides.

[fei123456]

Lol russian troops are still more professional than most other countries. At least ukraine army doesn't stand a chance outside urban areas.
The only chance is to defend the cities, in every street and every building. It's impossible for Russian to use bombards and cannons upon their brotherhood, but this would be a cruel fight.

[scarm]

Lol russian troops are still more professional than most other countries. At least ukraine army doesn't stand a chance outside urban areas.
The only chance is to defend the cities, in every street and every building. It's impossible for Russian to use bombards and cannons upon their brotherhood, but this would be a cruel fight.

No offense, but this info is coming from soldiers looking at the OSINT we have. Russians openly riding on tanks and such. And the Ukrainian army seems to holding in the open as well. Southern spearhead is coming to a halt, Mariupol is still defended and even Kharkov is held. Russia conducted a very risky airborne assault operation in regards to the Gostomel airport, on day 1 of a planned military operation. I personally can't judge all this, and information is obviously mediocre, but overall it seems plausible that this isn't really desirable.

And btw. you realize that Russia has been using artillery and air strikes all the time right? It isn't carpet bombing just yet, but there still are a decent number of Civilian casualties and Kiev in particular has been under fire since the start of the invasion.

[scarm]

Just a very specific example, and i wouldn't 100% subscribe to it being on purpose, but fact of the matter is shelling is taking place. Civilians are dying.

[fei123456]

No offense, but this info is coming from soldiers looking at the OSINT we have. Russians openly riding on tanks and such. And the Ukrainian army seems to holding in the open as well. Southern spearhead is coming to a halt, Mariupol is still defended and even Kharkov is held. Russia conducted a very risky airborne assault operation in regards to the Gostomel airport, on day 1 of a planned military operation. I personally can't judge all this, and information is obviously mediocre, but overall it seems plausible that this isn't really desirable.

Day 1 isn't that successful for Russia indeed, but they only put ~10% troops into fight either. More and more Russians is coming today, after they realize that they can't make Ukraine surrender in hours. They just overwhelm Ukraine too much, and they don't need to be that professional. It's not a fair play from the beginning.

And btw. you realize that Russia has been using artillery and air strikes all the time right? It isn't carpet bombing just yet, but there still are a decent number of Civilian casualties and Kiev in particular has been under fire since the start of the invasion.

Of course I know this. But if Ukraine decide to defend every street to the last minute, Russia can't seize control of a city without carpet bombard (which is not likely to happen).

[scarm]

Day 1 isn't that successful for Russia indeed, but they only put ~10% troops into fight either. More and more Russians is coming today, after they realize that they can't make Ukraine surrender in hours. They just overwhelm Ukraine too much, and they don't need to be that professional. It's not a fair play from the beginning.

I mean yeah, none of this will change something in the grand scheme of things. But it is noteworthy in the light of future conflicts (and their prevention), that Russia's army might be less effective than we anticipated.

Of course I know this. But if Ukraine decide to defend every street to the last minute, Russia can't seize control of a city without carpet bombard (which is not likely to happen).

Good point.

[scarm]

Just an example of someone who seems to be an expert on the Russian army being less effective than feared/expected

[Goodspeed]

To what extent are diminishing returns a factor when it comes to army numbers, and is Russia anywhere near a "critical mass" of military assigned to the attack so that assigning even more is counter-productive? Or is the bottleneck more in the amount of troops that can be transported to the front per, say, hour?

[scarm]

I have no clue, but i saw some speculation floating around that there only seem to be around 60.000 active personnel currently invading, and that there are currently no signs of the predicted, larger 2. wave. But honestly idk how reliable that info is.

[scarm]

[occamslightsaber]

I have no clue, but i saw some speculation floating around that there only seem to be around 60.000 active personnel currently invading, and that there are currently no signs of the predicted, larger 2. wave. But honestly idk how reliable that info is.

Besides some combat units being held as reserves and for later stability operations, it’s possible that a good number of ~100,000 Russian troops that we are not seeing (just based on the speculations, idk if the number is accurate) are combat services support such as logistics and maintenance. The U.S. Army, for example, only has around 40 to 45% of its units in combat roles, while the remainder are in supporting roles. Even out of those 40 to 45%, only about a quarter of them (10% of overall units) see direct combat as infantry and so on.

The Soviets used to lean really heavily toward combat units during the Cold War, but that has obviously changed since the Russian Army has modernized. Not sure about to what extent, but likely not too far off from the U.S. Army as before. Additionally, those support units probably have a lot of conscripts, who are roughly a quarter of the entire Russian Army and are usually relegated to such roles while professional contract soldiers take on more visible combat roles.

It’d be interesting to see how the Russians will try to occupy the country after taking over. In Iraq, the U.S. had 7 soldiers for every 1,000 residents during the Surge, which helped to stabilize the country a lot. Iraq had under 30 million people back then (compared to Ukraine’s some 44 million people now). Ukraine is also quite a bit larger in terms of territory than Iraq. Even with help from collaborators, Russia will need to bring in a lot more manpower to hold the entirety of Ukraine, especially if there is a large scale insurgency going on.

[scarm]

Modern wars are... interesting

@occamslightsaber but shouldn't some of these auxiliary troops also move into the country after the actual battle groups? Like engineers, supply battalions whatever?