Ukraine Invaded By Russia

[Dolan]

I have enough room for two here tbh

[princeofcarthage]

Putin has won:

- he has wasted a lot of resources and money on deploying troops
- he has managed to revive NATO
- he has pushed Ukraine further towards Europe/NATO
- he has made western sentiment towards Russia even more anti-Russian
- it even seems like he has pushed China away

So far its definitely been a high IQ move by Putin.

I think you are misunderstanding the western position. They are like empty vessels making the highest noise at the moment. America can not actually sanction Russia. Whatever sanctions will be they will be limited in scope. The same logic which holds true for not sanctioning before invasion holds true after invasion. If going by western statements, harshest sanctions are imposed, Russia still has nothing else/more to lose. Then why just stop at Ukraine, war could easily spill over into Romania and Baltic states. Are you absolutely 100% sure US and Western Europe is ready to defend Baltic states or Romania or even Nordic countries militarily? Sure there is NATO and article 5 but it will be a very difficult test. Treaties are broken all the time and article 5 is not immune to that. It is actually quite unlikely that in moment of invasion of Baltic states US would commit troops. Vistula river in Poland has been the traditional line dividing Eastern and Western Europe into different spheres of influence. And most likely that is the red line for Western Europe and US when they intervene militarily. NATO expanding east is to create as much buffer zone as possible and deter possible invasions by being as close as possible. There is also the possibility of over doing the sanctions to the point that Russia might justify first use of nuclear strike. And Europe will bear the initial burnt of it. For that reason EU also won't push much sanctions where they critically cripple Russia. Oil is also hovering around $90, without firing a single shot Russia is also currently raking in lots of dough which probably covers any cost of mobilization and still has left over. I think you are misunderstanding loud American and European rhetoric for strength. Their position is hilariously weak. At most you will see some forms of limited sanctions.

If you consider the CSTO and countries like Iran and Syria which will definitely try to take advantage of situation also North Korea, US has extremely limited space to maneuver. Israel also has its own motives and if Washington is looking elsewhere Israeli actions can create this weird chain of events which may end up with Israel and Russia on same side. Erdogan and Putin also has good relations. While Turkey has publicly denounced Russia (most likely due to pressure from US) exact Turkish position is still a mystery. Germany also cancelled Nord 2 most likely due to immense pressure from US.

[Cometk]

well

[pecelot]

oof

[voigt1240]

And so it begins?

[pecelot]

it began some 8 years ago

[RefluxSemantic]

Fuck Russia

[scarm]

This is very hard to fathom

[duckzilla]

To cite myself: it would be best if Putin just died of Covid. We now observe the occupation of a foreign nation that was once perceived as fraternal to Russia. But it is not like Putin is over after this shitshow. Who knows what will be his next victim? His actions over the past 20 years became more aggressive and brutal step by step. I can't see this being the end of the story.

[princeofcarthage]

It is called the carthage method. Whatever he decides becomes reality.

Well, this aged well.

[princeofcarthage]

Ukrainian missiles conveniently hits pipelines carrying gas to Germany. Arab states have already confirmed they won't be able to replace Russia. President Putin wants to continue supplying gas and doesn't want to weaponize energy. Mr. Germany would you please approve Nord 2? Any takers? Anyone?

[scarm]

European unity is going to be of paramount importance in the years to come. We need to stop our quarrels with Poland und Hungary. We need to accelerate EU accession in the balkans. We need to strengthen ties with the UK, Israel, and Turkey, as well as Japan, Australia and New Zealand. We need to stop being naive and start active power politics again. The world just changed, and with the 2024 presidential elections looming with the threat of a second Trump presidency, Putin's Russia just might get an ally over the Atlantic as well. In 2 years time, us Europeans could be isolated on the international stage.

[scarm]

Also: is it just me or did the threat of the Kaliningrad nukes get so much more palpable just now?

[scarm]

Also: we need to get Switzerland on board of the Sanctions train asap.

[princeofcarthage]

In case you missed, US treasury clarified that the impact of past sanctions on Russia has been less than 1% of the gdp. And quite likely had counter impact by pushing Russia to be independent in sectors which it was previously dependent. At this point US doesn't even have a position to sanction Russia to the point where it can cripple her. Sanctions will be for namesake with no significant impact. Sanctions only work as long as the opposition doesn't call the bluff. Even if US follows through its word, enough nations support Russia to neglect the effect of those sanctions.

[Horsemen]

European unity is going to be of paramount importance in the years to come. We need to stop our quarrels with Poland und Hungary. We need to accelerate EU accession in the balkans. We need to strengthen ties with the UK, Israel, and Turkey, as well as Japan, Australia and New Zealand. We need to stop being naive and start active power politics again. The world just changed, and with the 2024 presidential elections looming with the threat of a second Trump presidency, Putin's Russia just might get an ally over the Atlantic as well. In 2 years time, us Europeans could be isolated on the international stage.

Lol as if. The EU’s response to this will be to issue strongly worded tweets and press releases. The lifestyles of European pensioners are too precious to be disturbed by trivial matters such as geopolitics and war.

[scarm]

In case you missed, US treasury clarified that the impact of past sanctions on Russia has been less than 1% of the gdp. And quite likely had counter impact by pushing Russia to be independent in sectors which it was previously dependent. At this point US doesn't even have a position to sanction Russia to the point where it can cripple her. Sanctions will be for namesake with no significant impact. Sanctions only work as long as the opposition doesn't call the bluff. Even if US follows through its word, enough nations support Russia to neglect the effect of those sanctions.

Switzerland is very important for major Russian firms and oligarchs. And tbh i am advocating for using the entire catalogue of options besides conventional warfare under the umbrella term "sanctions". Use hybrid warfare. Attack Russian infrastructure using "independent hacker groups". Try and support anti-russian groups in transnistria, ossetia and such, as Dolan suggested.

And don't get me wrong. These things are at least in parts horrible, as they are going to lead to even more bloodshed. As of yesterday i thought it wasn't an option we should pursue at all. Today i think we should at least think about it, and consider both strategic and moral implications.

[scarm]

European unity is going to be of paramount importance in the years to come. We need to stop our quarrels with Poland und Hungary. We need to accelerate EU accession in the balkans. We need to strengthen ties with the UK, Israel, and Turkey, as well as Japan, Australia and New Zealand. We need to stop being naive and start active power politics again. The world just changed, and with the 2024 presidential elections looming with the threat of a second Trump presidency, Putin's Russia just might get an ally over the Atlantic as well. In 2 years time, us Europeans could be isolated on the international stage.

Lol as if. The EU’s response to this will be to issue strongly worded tweets and press releases. The lifestyles of European pensioners are too precious to be disturbed by trivial matters such as geopolitics and war.

I fear that you are probably right and it is gonna cost us.

[princeofcarthage]

In case you missed, US treasury clarified that the impact of past sanctions on Russia has been less than 1% of the gdp. And quite likely had counter impact by pushing Russia to be independent in sectors which it was previously dependent. At this point US doesn't even have a position to sanction Russia to the point where it can cripple her. Sanctions will be for namesake with no significant impact. Sanctions only work as long as the opposition doesn't call the bluff. Even if US follows through its word, enough nations support Russia to neglect the effect of those sanctions.

Switzerland is very important for major Russian firms and oligarchs. And tbh i am advocating for using the entire catalogue of options besides conventional warfare under the umbrella term "sanctions". Use hybrid warfare. Attack Russian infrastructure using "independent hacker groups". Try and support anti-russian groups in transnistria, ossetia and such, as Dolan suggested.

And don't get me wrong. These things are at least in parts horrible, as they are going to lead to even more bloodshed. As of yesterday i thought it wasn't an option we should pursue at all. Today i think we should at least think about it, and consider both strategic and moral implications.

Why? Do you want to further escalate the war into a nuclear one? Possibly engulfing entirety of Europe? Do not fall for American rhetoric, America is safe across the ocean from anything short of nuclear war. Even if NATO interferes war will be fought on your land, your cities will be destroyed.

[scarm]

You simply have no idea of anything. I don't give a single fuck about the US. I never consumed any US media on this. Why would i, it is happening on our doorstep. You are living in your weird self-built world of fantasy.

[harcha]

@POC You seem to think that Europeans take directions from Americans. That doesn't make any sense, we know they are far removed from anything that happens here.

[harcha]

In case you missed, US treasury clarified that the impact of past sanctions on Russia has been less than 1% of the gdp. And quite likely had counter impact by pushing Russia to be independent in sectors which it was previously dependent. At this point US doesn't even have a position to sanction Russia to the point where it can cripple her. Sanctions will be for namesake with no significant impact. Sanctions only work as long as the opposition doesn't call the bluff. Even if US follows through its word, enough nations support Russia to neglect the effect of those sanctions.

Switzerland is very important for major Russian firms and oligarchs. And tbh i am advocating for using the entire catalogue of options besides conventional warfare under the umbrella term "sanctions". Use hybrid warfare. Attack Russian infrastructure using "independent hacker groups". Try and support anti-russian groups in transnistria, ossetia and such, as Dolan suggested.

And don't get me wrong. These things are at least in parts horrible, as they are going to lead to even more bloodshed. As of yesterday i thought it wasn't an option we should pursue at all. Today i think we should at least think about it, and consider both strategic and moral implications.

Why? Do you want to further escalate the war into a nuclear one? Possibly engulfing entirety of Europe? Do not fall for American rhetoric, America is safe across the ocean from anything short of nuclear war. Even if NATO interferes war will be fought on your land, your cities will be destroyed.

Bad take. Using the methods that Russia has used for a decade is not an escalation. Calling it such is admitting that you are not capable of looking at the situation objectively.

[occamslightsaber]

@POC You seem to think that Europeans take directions from Americans. That doesn't make any sense, we know they are far removed from anything that happens here.

Biden was more serious and forceful in his response to Russian aggression than most, if not all, Western European leaders.

[Goodspeed]

Yeah a hybrid war seems like a good idea. Basically anything we can do to help defend Ukraine or weaken Putin domestically, without declaring war.

[princeofcarthage]

If anyone thinks Baltic states are safe, well they are wrong. War in Baltic states is coming. By NATO's own admission defending Baltic states is very hard and Russia can roll them over in 48 hours. The message is clear in Kremlin that US is incapable of defending them and that western democracies won't start nuclear war over some ex-soviet states. Maybe not immediately but the amount of sanctions and their effects determines how fast that war is coming. If Europe really wants peace, they should leave Russian sphere of influence to them. Poland is a sticky issue but that should be procrastinated as long as possible.

Of course Putin might be just out of power before that happens and successors might not choose to go down that path. But as long as Putin is in power war in Baltic is coming.

Mainly targeted at @GS