The Fake Futurism of Elon Musk - Private Space Ventures

[iNcog]

Can we talk a bit about how Elon Musk is just really stupid?

SpaceX has actually gone and done something wonderful with their reusable rocket boosters. It's an absolutely astonishing piece of engineering that is doing so well for the cost of launch mass into space.

The idea of colonizing Mars is an absolutely fucking terrible one. To summarize:

- Mars cannot be terraformed with current technology/energy levels,
- Martian gravity will deplete bone mass of any colonists there,
- Martian atmosphere does not protect versus harmful solar radiation,
- Mars does not have a magnetic field strong enough to protect itself against solar wind,
- Potential colonists will endure psychological pressures that will be quite overwhelming, most likely,
- Mars is quite, quite far away, making extraction of resources (for example) very pricey,

All in all, it seems like a very stupid and senseless idea. There's literally nothing to be gained from trying to colonize Mars.

A new space station? A moon base? Both much better alternatives, probably. If only because people could travel between Earth and the Moon in a matter days instead of months.

Elon talks big and is good at whipping out his dick for $250k, but doesn't seem to have a solid grasp of reality. In the mean time most of his ideas that are for earth end up being incredibly stupid as well. Pretty much any of his ideas (e.g. vegas hyperloop) would just be better off using a modern version of current tech. Just build a train, really.

[harcha]

Can we talk a bit about how Elon Musk is just really stupid?

It's a closed book, it's been decided long ago.

SpaceX has actually gone and done something wonderful with their reusable rocket boosters. It's an absolutely astonishing piece of engineering that is doing so well for the cost of launch mass into space.

Debatable. They've missed the targets they set out and the program is still yet to prove it's marketing as "reusable" and "economical". However it should be on par with the shuttle and is kind of irreplaceable.

In the mean time most of his ideas that are for earth end up being incredibly stupid as well. Pretty much any of his ideas (e.g. vegas hyperloop) would just be better off using a modern version of current tech. Just build a train, really.

Yeah, that's a pattern. He is a hype-man pretending to be an engineer.

[princeofcarthage]

Musk's targets were always ambitious, they were expected to fail in most cases. However precisely the reason why we have operational rockets at this stage. If the initial target itself was 2020 we would have first flights in 2030. Look at the competitors of SpaceX.

What more "proof" you need. From American standards it is one of the cheapest rocket available, Russia had to slash prices by 20-30% and yet can't match spacex prices. Granted that China and India have cheaper rockets but that is due to the nature of economy. Also our rockets can't match spacex in all spectrum. About 75% of the rocket is reusable and have been reused more than 10 times in many cases.

Experts are divided on Mars terraforming. Some say it is possible with current tech. Others disagree. It is pure speculation though. There is not enough data about terraforming and our models aren't powerful enough. + Lot of unknown variables which can't be calculated. However, Mars is a better choice because with high probability at some point in time it had atmosphere and Earth like terrain. Theoretically climatic changes can be reversed. Obviously there are issues. But there are issues so we shouldn't try is a ridiculous and laughable ideology. If so we would never be flying in planes!

[Dolan]

He's a hype chaser. He takes ideas that have this "dream potential", develops them to a point when they look like a believable and working product, then creates some public event to spark controversy and get the markets to talk about it.
Then shares go up, the hype machine gets into gear. He learned how the Anglo-globalised hype economics works very well.
And the boomers love it. He's like the 2nd stock for them to buy and hold, after Apple.

[Dolan]

So this Mars project isn't pursued by him or Bezos because it can actually and factually bring any immediate practical dividends, but more for projecting this image of being engaged in an ambitious, dreamy project that "drives humanity forward".
I think some editorialist called it 'midlife crisis for billionaires', because after they amassed a huge fortune and they can buy anything, the superrich need this kind of hobby projects to show the rest of the world what a paragon of ambition and forward-thinking they are.

Invest in curing cancer or graphene production to cut down on using concrete in buildings? Nah that's too ordinary and uninspiring. Doesn't make the public and investors "dream big" like chips implanted in brains or Mars flights.
It's also the zeitgeist, since in the last decade, all these ideas surrounding AI and transhumanism have leaked into the mainstream mindscape and energised nerds' hope for a singularity when they'll ascend to bionic life and live forever as digits uploaded in a computer memory.

[iNcog]

I highly appreciate the link of an Adam Something video @harcha

[iNcog]

Musk's targets were always ambitious, they were expected to fail in most cases. However precisely the reason why we have operational rockets at this stage. If the initial target itself was 2020 we would have first flights in 2030. Look at the competitors of SpaceX.

What more "proof" you need. From American standards it is one of the cheapest rocket available, Russia had to slash prices by 20-30% and yet can't match spacex prices. Granted that China and India have cheaper rockets but that is due to the nature of economy. Also our rockets can't match spacex in all spectrum. About 75% of the rocket is reusable and have been reused more than 10 times in many cases.

Experts are divided on Mars terraforming. Some say it is possible with current tech. Others disagree. It is pure speculation though. There is not enough data about terraforming and our models aren't powerful enough. + Lot of unknown variables which can't be calculated. However, Mars is a better choice because with high probability at some point in time it had atmosphere and Earth like terrain. Theoretically climatic changes can be reversed. Obviously there are issues. But there are issues so we shouldn't try is a ridiculous and laughable ideology. If so we would never be flying in planes!

Mars' atmosphere was eroded away by solar win due its lack of magnetic field. There isn't enough water and oxygen or mars itself to give it an atmosphere. Even if we were to somehow get an atmosphere on Mars, it would just decay because it's unprotected. Unlike Earth which can protect its atmosphere through its magnetic field and its stronger gravity.

I truthfully cannot see how current tech could terraform mars into something that we want. We would have to be at least a Type I civilization first.

[duckzilla]

Terraforming Mars is easy-peasy.

Step 1: throw some dwarf planets on Mars to increase its mass (rip Pluto)
Step 2: throw the ice moon Europa on Mars to get water to the place
Step 3: add some bacteria to the soup and wait

[Dolan]

Also, forgot to add, there is a practical immediate gain for him, as he used these spaceflight capabilities to launch satellites and meme satellite internet into a product.
And ofc selling the spaceflight service to public institutions when they can't fund their own.

[harcha]

Also, forgot to add, there is a practical immediate gain for him, as he used these spaceflight capabilities to launch satellites and meme satellite internet into a product.
And ofc selling the spaceflight service to public institutions when they can't fund their own.

His satellite internet is actually surprisingly competitive.

[Dolan]

Sure, if you need that in some cases in which you can't have ground infrastructure, like it happens now in Ukraine.

[Dolan]

I think he realised the commercial potential of space flights years ago when NASA had its budget cut.
This talk about "Mars terraforming" is just the hype front end of a business that makes money by taking advantage of governments having cut down on space programs funds after the financial crisis.
Redditors will debate "Mars terraforming", real business people will look at the spaceflight service that SpaceX sells to the US government.

[harcha]

Sure, if you need that in some cases in which you can't have ground infrastructure, like it happens now in Ukraine.

It's the ideal solution for remote areas. For this niche there is no better solution, I think.
They only need to solve some minor problems.

[iNcog]

I think he realised the commercial potential of space flights years ago when NASA had its budget cut.
This talk about "Mars terraforming" is just the hype front end of a business that makes money by taking advantage of governments having cut down on space programs funds after the financial crisis.
Redditors will debate "Mars terraforming", real business people will look at the spaceflight service that SpaceX sells to the US government.

The spaceflight services are indeed quite competitive, mostly thanks to Gwynne Shotwell, as well as the engineers that have worked on those platforms.

Mars terraforming and colonization is a topic to bring up, given that Musk keeps talking about it. It's misguided and frankly speaking mostly just talk without any substance. Which is why it shouldn't be celebrated. Musk has a cult following.

[flontier]

The idea of colonizing Mars is an absolutely fucking terrible one. To summarize:

- Mars cannot be terraformed with current technology/energy levels,
- Martian gravity will deplete bone mass of any colonists there,
- Martian atmosphere does not protect versus harmful solar radiation,
- Mars does not have a magnetic field strong enough to protect itself against solar wind,
- Potential colonists will endure psychological pressures that will be quite overwhelming, most likely,
- Mars is quite, quite far away, making extraction of resources (for example) very pricey,

All in all, it seems like a very stupid and senseless idea. There's literally nothing to be gained from trying to colonize Mars.

Are you sure ? I mean I can't imagine all of the technological advances we'll see in the future thanks to the people working on these problematics, even if the ultime goal seems impossible.

[princeofcarthage]

I think he realised the commercial potential of space flights years ago when NASA had its budget cut.
This talk about "Mars terraforming" is just the hype front end of a business that makes money by taking advantage of governments having cut down on space programs funds after the financial crisis.
Redditors will debate "Mars terraforming", real business people will look at the spaceflight service that SpaceX sells to the US government.

The spaceflight services are indeed quite competitive, mostly thanks to Gwynne Shotwell, as well as the engineers that have worked on those platforms.

Mars terraforming and colonization is a topic to bring up, given that Musk keeps talking about it. It's misguided and frankly speaking mostly just talk without any substance. Which is why it shouldn't be celebrated. Musk has a cult following.

You are seriously underestimating the role Musk plays. Try getting 10 people to co-operate on solving an issue. How many companies like Amazon or Apple came up? Most failed. Most companies reached the heights because of visionary founders. And you do need knowledge about the said subject to be a founder. You can't exactly start a space company or an electric vehicle company without the requisite knowledge.

[Dolan]

He bought the brains. It's not like any of the things he's involved in were invented by them, there's plenty of experience to go around in those fields that you can just hire

[princeofcarthage]

Why don't you start a new spacex? Lets see how far you go!

[Dolan]

Let me first get born in an upper middle-class family with a dad that owns half an emerald mine in Zambia and a house with employed staff

[princeofcarthage]

Ah! The classic excuse, I Wasn't born privileged. Privilege can only get you so far. But yes lets just discard all the efforts and ingenuity of the people.

[princeofcarthage]

Musk's targets were always ambitious, they were expected to fail in most cases. However precisely the reason why we have operational rockets at this stage. If the initial target itself was 2020 we would have first flights in 2030. Look at the competitors of SpaceX.

What more "proof" you need. From American standards it is one of the cheapest rocket available, Russia had to slash prices by 20-30% and yet can't match spacex prices. Granted that China and India have cheaper rockets but that is due to the nature of economy. Also our rockets can't match spacex in all spectrum. About 75% of the rocket is reusable and have been reused more than 10 times in many cases.

Experts are divided on Mars terraforming. Some say it is possible with current tech. Others disagree. It is pure speculation though. There is not enough data about terraforming and our models aren't powerful enough. + Lot of unknown variables which can't be calculated. However, Mars is a better choice because with high probability at some point in time it had atmosphere and Earth like terrain. Theoretically climatic changes can be reversed. Obviously there are issues. But there are issues so we shouldn't try is a ridiculous and laughable ideology. If so we would never be flying in planes!

Mars' atmosphere was eroded away by solar win due its lack of magnetic field. There isn't enough water and oxygen or mars itself to give it an atmosphere. Even if we were to somehow get an atmosphere on Mars, it would just decay because it's unprotected. Unlike Earth which can protect its atmosphere through its magnetic field and its stronger gravity.

I truthfully cannot see how current tech could terraform mars into something that we want. We would have to be at least a Type I civilization first.

What even is Type I civilization lol. It is just an arbitrary term.

Obviously there are scientific ways about how you would terraform. Scientists and experts know about the issues and I believe are working on them. The first step would be to establish a human presence or a small colony. It would obviously in small habitations like space station. NASA has already taken steps towards establishing a permanent base on Mars. Many issue is obviously oxygen and water. Equipments are in testing processes.

Look at this for ex. https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/spacecra ... nts/moxie/

We have the resources and tech to slowly start the process. It is obviously going to be a multigenerational effort. Not something that would happen within couple years. The issue at this point really isn't the tech or raw resources, it is the way we have built our stupid economy. Which means despite everything due to money NASA can't do stuff and had to prioritize missions.

[Dolan]

Ah! The classic excuse, I Wasn't born privileged. Privilege can only get you so far. But yes lets just discard all the efforts and ingenuity of the people.

There was a list done by Forbes in 2011 which showed that only about a 1/5th of the 400 richest came from poverty. The rest all came from some degree of wealth, at least middle-class. That gives you a first basis to start from, a good private education, opportunity for connections, a safe family environment etc.
I know because I had a friend from work whose family was middle class. They weren't rich but they had their own small estate in the suburbs, his dad was involved in politics and knew some of the most important leaders and he paid for his son to go to Harvard to get a diploma and then to do an MA in the UK.
This is the typical middle-class background from which most of the rich hail. Holidays in Dubai, family meetings in Chile, travelling all the time.
When my contract with the institution we were working at ended, I had to go seek a new job elsewhere, cap in hand. His dad came to visit a politician the next day and the genius son got a new job right away.
I think last time I talked to him he was planning on working in London, in the City.

I'm not discarding the work and efforts self-made rich people did, just saying that the odds of you getting to big wealth from nothing are a lot smaller. You first need to reach that middle foundation, from which you can work towards the next level.
Multiple barriers.

[callentournies]

Terraforming Mars is easy-peasy.

Step 1: throw some dwarf planets on Mars to increase its mass (rip Pluto)
Step 2: throw the ice moon Europa on Mars to get water to the place
Step 3: add some bacteria to the soup and wait

that's a long simmer

[callentournies]

Musk's targets were always ambitious, they were expected to fail in most cases. However precisely the reason why we have operational rockets at this stage. If the initial target itself was 2020 we would have first flights in 2030. Look at the competitors of SpaceX.

What more "proof" you need. From American standards it is one of the cheapest rocket available, Russia had to slash prices by 20-30% and yet can't match spacex prices. Granted that China and India have cheaper rockets but that is due to the nature of economy. Also our rockets can't match spacex in all spectrum. About 75% of the rocket is reusable and have been reused more than 10 times in many cases.

Experts are divided on Mars terraforming. Some say it is possible with current tech. Others disagree. It is pure speculation though. There is not enough data about terraforming and our models aren't powerful enough. + Lot of unknown variables which can't be calculated. However, Mars is a better choice because with high probability at some point in time it had atmosphere and Earth like terrain. Theoretically climatic changes can be reversed. Obviously there are issues. But there are issues so we shouldn't try is a ridiculous and laughable ideology. If so we would never be flying in planes!

Mars' atmosphere was eroded away by solar win due its lack of magnetic field. There isn't enough water and oxygen or mars itself to give it an atmosphere. Even if we were to somehow get an atmosphere on Mars, it would just decay because it's unprotected. Unlike Earth which can protect its atmosphere through its magnetic field and its stronger gravity.

I truthfully cannot see how current tech could terraform mars into something that we want. We would have to be at least a Type I civilization first.

What even is Type I civilization lol. It is just an arbitrary term.

Kardashev scale

language is arbitrary teebeeaitch

[gibson]

The idea of colonizing Mars is an absolutely fucking terrible one. To summarize:

- Mars cannot be terraformed with current technology/energy levels,
- Martian gravity will deplete bone mass of any colonists there,
- Martian atmosphere does not protect versus harmful solar radiation,
- Mars does not have a magnetic field strong enough to protect itself against solar wind,
- Potential colonists will endure psychological pressures that will be quite overwhelming, most likely,
- Mars is quite, quite far away, making extraction of resources (for example) very pricey,

All in all, it seems like a very stupid and senseless idea. There's literally nothing to be gained from trying to colonize Mars.

Are you sure ? I mean I can't imagine all of the technological advances we'll see in the future thanks to the people working on these problematics, even if the ultime goal seems impossible.

Wheres @bwinner ?

@kaister @fattsrussellfan4 @edwardteatx are also interested