England maybe leave EU june 23.

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Vietnam duckzilla
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by duckzilla »

Dolan wrote:@duckzilla
If you want to talk based on evidence, check this out:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016%E2%8 ... by_numbers

How is this even remotely comparable to Romania/Hungary/Poland? These states have adopted some laws that may disrupt the rule of law in subtle ways, like making anti-corruption prosecution harder or making the constitutional court less independent. But there are degrees of gravity. And none of these countries are imprisoning journalists, laying off people because of their political views and so on. There's a world of difference between these three countries and Turkey. It's like another world. And Turkey seems to be hellbent on allying itself with Russia, which is not a very loyal behaviour for a NATO ally, is it?

Thanks for the numbers and I may have exaggerated a bit about nowaday Romania.

Turkey is surely on a bad way, I don't want to defend that. But I'm convinced that the perspective of entering the European Union can change a lot within a country. 15-20 years ago, Turkey was arguably an entirely different country than today. From a EU perspective, Romania/Bulgaria/Turkey were not too different from each other with regard to the criteria for entering the EU. While Bulgaria/Romania were offered membership, Turkey was not. This led changes in all three countries. While Bulgaria/Romania started a slow convergence to the other countries of the EU in societal dimensions such as free press, democratic political system, etc., Turkey did not. Turkey went into the opposite direction, since people realized that Europeans will never view the Turkish as a part of Europe out of cultural reasons, i.e. due to racism.

"Turkey seems hellbent on allying itself with Russia" - sorry, I have to assume that this is a bad joke. Turkey wanted to become part of Europe and was basically ignored. This is a country that westernized itself as much as it could, even changed the written language from Arabian to Latin already 100 years ago. It views itself as European since the first conquests of Osman in the 14th century. This country surely does not want to ally with its long-term rival that is Russia, who 1) recently annexed the Crimean Peninsula in the direct neighborhood of Istanbul and 2) is an active warmonger in Syria directly south of Turkey - it feels threatened!
But who exactly are Turkey's allies? The Europeans who leave them out of the club? Turkey does not have any allies! Turkey only has a NATO consisting of countries which do not regard Turkey as one of their own (western, civilized, etc.).

I demand that people do not only see differences between countries and peoples. I would love to welcome Turkey in the European Union as brothers and sisters sharing the same goals (peace, democracy, liberty, prosperity, etc.), just like we welcomed all the other new member states since the 1970s.


tldr: Romania is nice, Turkey too.
Whatever is written above: this is no financial advice.

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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

I don't want to polemicise on this subject much. I just think that Turkey joining the EU is not going to happen, for many reasons. Not in the least because the EU feels overstretched by the numerous crises it had to navigate through during the last 10 years.

The EU is an assailed ship right now and it needs to reach calm waters again before it could start considering such ambitious expansions again. It is going to swallow up a couple of tiny Balkan states more in the next 15 years and then it's going to roll down the shutters on any further expansion plans.

These are times to consolidate, not to expand. The union is already quite divided between its Western wing and Eastern wing and along the North - South axis. Introducing a state with a Muslim majority, an authoritarian political culture and a history of military intervention in politics would add another point of fracture in the EU, which would risk unravelling the whole project. It's barely holding on as it is right now, still managing to stumble on and project a somewhat cohesive facade. If this trend of electing populist leaders continues, we might see more and more leaders with an inward-looking approach to how they manage their countries and an EU like a carriage with 27 horses each pulling in a different direction.
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Great Britain Horsemen
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Horsemen »

In 10 years the UK will no longer exist as a country.

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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

That's possible. There are independence movements in each and every UK country right now. I think it's unlikely that nothing will come out of this after the reality of Brexit will start setting in.

I'm expecting either Northern Ireland or Scotland will eventually break away. Or both. But it's going to take time. Norn Iron could happen faster, because they have another country they could merge with and which can absorb the costs. Scotland is a more difficult case, because they have to establish all the trappings of an independent, separate country, first. And that'll cost them a few %s in living standards, since they already have a huge deficit.
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Googol »

Horsemen wrote:In 10 years the UK will no longer exist as a country.

phpBB [video]


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgqGDsL_Drw
Whats real and whats not ? :unsure:
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

RIP

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Great Britain Horsemen
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Horsemen »

next we will have PM BJ
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Ashvin »

I felt bad when she cried :(
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

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Czech Republic Googol
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Googol »

Ashvin wrote:I felt bad when she cried :(


Reminds you that they are still people like us, they have emotions too after all. I felt kinda bad too to be fair.
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Riotcoke »

You lads ready for Jacob Rees Mogg as our PM?
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

That'll boost the Tories' claim to being in touch with the people and the working class (who voted for Brexit), by electing another Eton college toff.
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by j_t_kirk »

:hmm:
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Norway spanky4ever
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by spanky4ever »

Dolan wrote:That'll boost the Tories' claim to being in touch with the people and the working class (who voted for Brexit), by electing another Eton college toff.

Yeah, I agree with that. And Boris Johnson is facing hardships now after this
https://youtu.be/N4rdXE6Bwis

I wish there would be a new general election now, tbh. Maybe Corbyn would win :love:

and @Dolan congratulations on your new avatar. :P MUCH better :idea:
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Great Britain Horsemen
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Horsemen »

iwillspankyou wrote:
Dolan wrote:That'll boost the Tories' claim to being in touch with the people and the working class (who voted for Brexit), by electing another Eton college toff.

Yeah, I agree with that. And Boris Johnson is facing hardships now after this
https://youtu.be/N4rdXE6Bwis

I wish there would be a new general election now, tbh. Maybe Corbyn would win :love:

and @Dolan congratulations on your new avatar. :P MUCH better :idea:

If Boris becomes leader of the Conservatives, Corbyn will get demolished

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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

Corbyn doesn't even want to get to power now. Why would you govern now and antagonise one half of the country, when you can just sit in the opposition benches and capitalise on the government's Brexit fiasco?

"Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself."

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Norway spanky4ever
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by spanky4ever »

Dolan wrote:Corbyn doesn't even want to get to power now. Why would you govern now and antagonise one half of the country, when you can just sit in the opposition benches and capitalise on the government's Brexit fiasco?

"Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself."

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could b, Im not sure though :idea:

https://youtu.be/WRgWcgo8WRU
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

Tories are self-destructing. They're pretty close to splitting. What keeps them together is their common interest of staying in power.

Surely Labour doesn't want to take that Brexit hot potato out of their hands. Labour is also internally divided on Brexit. If you send them in the power seat, they will go through the same crisis as the Tories.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

Of course Corbyn will ask for elections (that video is from 24 May, btw, so it's made in a certain context). How else can you criticise the government, if not by saying they're not fit to govern and they should be removed from power?

But it's one thing what he says and another what he wants. Truth is he knows he has no chance of removing Tories from power right now. So, one way of criticising the government is to ask for things that won't happen, while bashing all their policies.

Politics 101. Why would you take their demands at face value?
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Norway spanky4ever
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by spanky4ever »

@Dolan
Why would you take their demands at face value?

I am sorry to say, I do not take politicians on face value anymore (well most of them anyway). I would like Corbyn to be PM now though. He would be a far better choice than anybody else IMO. I do realize that it could bring damage to the Labour party because they are split in half on the Brexit issue.
But even so, If I were a UK citizen, I would have much more confidence in Corbyn than any of the right-wing contesters.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

And why would Labour be any better than Tories? The UK economy has been better under Tories' stewardship. When they were in charge, Labour piled on a lot of debt:

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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Goodspeed »

Remember the housing crisis? Surely you're not arguing labour policy caused that spike
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Dolan »

They basically doubled public debt in just a few years (from about 40% of GDP to almost 80%).
By comparison, during the same post-crisis period of time, Germany's coalition in power only added about 15% more debt then started tapering off.

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Labour really likes spending money they don't have to create the impression of prosperity. By contrast, Tories kept adding debt too, but at a much more moderate and subdued pace.
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Norway spanky4ever
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by spanky4ever »

your graph does not make any sense, cos we cannot read anything from it, - its the usual nonsense I guess @Dolan
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Great Britain Horsemen
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Re: England maybe leave EU june 23.

Post by Horsemen »

Spending money they don't have to create the illusion of prosperity... describes pretty much every left-wing administration ever

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