what causes recessions?

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France iNcog
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what causes recessions?

Post by iNcog »

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Garja wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 21:46
I just hope DE is not going to implement all of the EP changes. Right now it is a big clusterfuck.
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what causes recessions?

Post by jkl »

fascist economic policies.

recessions and depressions r caused by a specific number of negative gdp growth in quarters. recession is 2 quarters and depression is 6 quarters. besides, real estate is based on many things. in the 2000's it was based on demand since the stock market was unstable. inflation/delation also plays a role in prices, so u have to understand that as well. there is no real destruction of wealth, just a change in what ppl believe the value is in something. some ppl think that bentleys r worth $300,000, but how, exactly? the same thing applies to gold/silver. if a major economic depression were to occur and ppl reverted back to silver and gold as currency in their economic community, which may vary in size, who will establish the price of gold and silver? its based on the ppl and how much they r will to buy and to sell their product/services for.

basic economics, supply/demand
France iNcog
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what causes recessions?

Post by iNcog »

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Garja wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 21:46
I just hope DE is not going to implement all of the EP changes. Right now it is a big clusterfuck.
No Flag jkl
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what causes recessions?

Post by jkl »

but in the modern fiat currency system, how can burning a paper money equal to value? just think about the usa-china connection. china buys us treasury bonds which makes the dollar value stronger through international demand than the yuan, yet usa still prints money all the time and that should devalue the currency. modern day currency in based on supply/demand. stock market is based on the health of a company and the accumulation bases the health of the economy. u also need an understanding on how stocks work before u can make an assumption like the average person though, and u need to take a few classes or read a lot. i can post pages on how stocks and economics work here but it would be better for u to just google it. the companies finances, headline news, situations, etc all have an impact on the stock price. just look at toshiba losing 20% of its stock price cuz of a scandal. there r also ppl in central banks which can basically control the value of the money, especially in usa. u can also view inflation as a way of destroying wealth cuz inflation causes loss of purchasing power. there r a lot of things u have to consider if u wanna know the truth, and an aoe3 forum isnt a really good place since im the only one that posted and many ppl have viewed this thread.
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what causes recessions?

Post by iNcog »

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Garja wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 21:46
I just hope DE is not going to implement all of the EP changes. Right now it is a big clusterfuck.
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what causes recessions?

Post by Goodspeed »

It''s been an exciting couple weeks in the stock market btw with many companies releasing 2nd quarter earnings reports.
Netflix jumped up 18% last week after reporting solid numbers, Google went crazy too and shot up 16%.
Today it''s Apple''s and GoPro''s turn, out of the ones I''m watching anyway.

1000 pts on [url=https://www.google.nl/search?q=%24aapl&'rlz=1C1AVNE_enNL611NL632&'oq=%24aapl&'aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.684j0j4&'sourceid=chrome&'es_sm=122&'ie=UTF-8]Apple''s share price[/url] going above $135 overnight.
No Flag jkl
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what causes recessions?

Post by jkl »

when u look at history, recessions/depressions were caused by many different factors. many causes were due to weather, lack of natural resources (both food and metals, fuels, etc), location (includes weather and resources). modern day recessions/depressions r caused by oil and monetary reasons. some might view this as a conspiracy, but it might just be a coincidence that all economic problems in developed, industrialized economics r caused by monetary issues of centralized currency.
there r many documents that r both leaked and unleaked on the deep web, but posting those here and having access to those websites/documents r impossible without software that can access it. that can be risky cuz usa government tracks the users who use those softwares and go to those websites
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what causes recessions?

Post by artiks »

jkl wrote:when u look at history, recessions/depressions were caused by many different factors. many causes were due to weather, lack of natural resources (both food and metals, fuels, etc), location (includes weather and resources). modern day recessions/depressions r caused by oil and monetary reasons. some might view this as a conspiracy, but it might just be a coincidence that all economic problems in developed, industrialized economics r caused by monetary issues of centralized currency.
there r many documents that r both leaked and unleaked on the deep web, but posting those here and having access to those websites/documents r impossible without software that can access it. that can be risky cuz usa government tracks the users who use those softwares and go to those websites




Ill just post this youtube linke



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbvCxMfcKv4



a nice place to start



at 04.00 starts the fun part :D
No Flag Mr. Pecksniff
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what causes recessions?

Post by Mr. Pecksniff »

It seems like you're asking two different types of question.

Firstly, as far as starvation goes, it's enough to say that supply and demand aren't the only forces at work in the economy, and that there are other factors that can lead to extended periods of negative growth.

Usually during a recession, employers cut costs by laying off their workers. The surge in unemployment should theoretically make labour cheaper, lowering wages across the board and hence allowing the economy to correct itself almost immediately. But in reality employers are unwilling to lower prices for existing workers out of a sense of fairness. The problem is compounded by the fact that employers also struggle to lower the prices of their goods in response to the drop in demand throughout the economy, since this involves a costly level of effort and coordination that cannot be brought into action quickly. Persistently high wages and prices prolong unemployment, with the true suffering arriving once the situation has lasted for years, leaving people without the money to feed themselves.

The actual causes of recessions can vary quite widely depending on the circumstances. The most recent crisis resulted from a widespread lack of liquidity when the prices of financial instruments fell, leaving individuals, businesses, and major banking institutions unable to meet their liabilities. This generated a shockwave effect throughout the global economy that had businesses either cutting costs or going under completely. The actual crash itself was really just a market correction' a completely normal feature of the economic cycle, except in this case it was unusually intense. Certain assets were overvalued, and at some point this realization sparked a massive sell-off that caused stock prices to tumble.

Secondly, when it comes to the destruction of wealth, no physical underlying part of the economy actually has to disappear for a recession to occur. All that needs to happen is for people to suddenly lose confidence in the value of something significant to the economy' in this case, it was property and the financial instruments tied to real estate. In a reductionist sense, this is all a market crash really consists of.
No Flag Mr. Pecksniff
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what causes recessions?

Post by Mr. Pecksniff »

Whoops
Netherlands momuuu
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what causes recessions?

Post by momuuu »

Recessions are seemingly part of a naturally oscillating system of ups and downs. If the timing is right, a small thing can push the entire economy into a recessions.

This probably happens because there is positive feedback. A small change will give people slightly less money to spend, which will make them buy less, which will further decrease the money they can spend etc.

Eventually things will stabilize, and then the opposite will happen where things start getting better and better.

Since there's some economy that is unaffected by the world economy (like the need for food and other general products), it seems logical that the economy will stabilize. From that point, its easier to get back into the upwards trend again.

Im not quite sure, but thats how I understand it and what seems logical to me.
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what causes recessions?

Post by Jam »

When something that supports a significant portion of the economy is removed, the stuff that it supported declines or collapses. If it's something that ties into a lot of different areas of the economy you can get a nasty recession. That's vague, but so is the word recession.
No Flag jkl
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what causes recessions?

Post by jkl »

artiks wrote:
jkl wrote:when u look at history, recessions/depressions were caused by many different factors. many causes were due to weather, lack of natural resources (both food and metals, fuels, etc), location (includes weather and resources). modern day recessions/depressions r caused by oil and monetary reasons. some might view this as a conspiracy, but it might just be a coincidence that all economic problems in developed, industrialized economics r caused by monetary issues of centralized currency.
there r many documents that r both leaked and unleaked on the deep web, but posting those here and having access to those websites/documents r impossible without software that can access it. that can be risky cuz usa government tracks the users who use those softwares and go to those websites


Ill just post this youtube linke



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbvCxMfcKv4



a nice place to start



at 04.00 starts the fun part :D
i dont find those videos to be 100% factual. if it were 100% factual, the general public would be all over it. these videos also try to connect everything with everything, trying to justify their claims by any means possible.
i prefer this video if u wanna find more truthful information

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb1n1X0Oqdw

but recessions/depressions doesnt affect everyone. hackers will always be in demand and usually win in the end based on their intentions
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what causes recessions?

Post by macacoalbino »

incog wrote:how does perception of wealth have people end up starving

the way i think i apprehended it is that if you burn $1000, then you''re destroying $1000 of wealth. that''s what stock market or real estate bubbles popping do, somehow

(I haven''t read all the discussion)
Idk if these markets actively do this but:
1.As recession is a negative GDP growth it means that less products (services etc etc) were sold or bought.
2.When you think about those $1000 in the hands of someone, they mean only those $1000. But when they''re spent over and over they will mean more gdp in the end. Here''s a simple example:
Imagine person A has the 1000 and decides to spend it, so person B now has the 1000, he decides to spend 500 of those, then person C spends 250, etc. The GDP of this economy will be higher (1750) than if the whole money had just stopped at person B (1000).
You see, the consuming behavior has this power of "creating" or "destroying" wealth in a economy, and that can be sort of guided through economic policy (raising taxes, interest, etc)
There are a lot of factors that change this, but I just wanted to show one of the possibilities for "money crafting" :P
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what causes recessions?

Post by momuuu »

Really, its an unstable system, it will fluctuate. What's confusing to me, is that people don't see it coming.. You can look at the trend, and basically predict that, if something even slightly shitty will happen, shit will hit the fan and the economy will die.
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what causes recessions?

Post by macacoalbino »

jerom wrote:Really, its an unstable system, it will fluctuate. What''s confusing to me, is that people don''t see it coming.. You can look at the trend, and basically predict that, if something even slightly shitty will happen, shit will hit the fan and the economy will die.
One funny thing is that from time to time the expectation that things will become shitty actually makes things do become shitty.
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what causes recessions?

Post by momuuu »

macacoalbino wrote:
jerom wrote:Really, its an unstable system, it will fluctuate. Whats confusing to me, is that people dont see it coming.. You can look at the trend, and basically predict that, if something even slightly shitty will happen, shit will hit the fan and the economy will die.
One funny thing is that from time to time the expectation that things will become shitty actually makes things do become shitty.
Im not sure. I think its very comparable to the El Ni?o and El Ni?a cycle. Thats a naturally oscillating system, much like how the economy oscillates. The different episodes take a few months to a few years, and happen somewhat infrequently. Its caused by positive feedback: Whenever it gets pushed out of equilibrium state, itll get pushed away from that state even further. That results in the oscillation we know today as that cycle.

I think the same thing is basically happening in the modern economy. The weird thing is that people can predict El Ni?o, but cant predict a recession yet.
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what causes recessions?

Post by macacoalbino »

Nice comparison. But well, they kind of can, not with 100% certainty but everyone knows when it's coming. the main problem is that both recession and El nino can't be stopped. All we can do is prepare to take less damage as possible.
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what causes recessions?

Post by momuuu »

macacoalbino wrote:Nice comparison. But well, they kind of can, not with 100% certainty but everyone knows when it''s coming. the main problem is that both recession and El nino can''t be stopped. All we can do is prepare to take less damage as possible.
Well, I didnt notice any government preparing for it. Really, every recession has a period of a great economy preceding it. You''d expect governments and companies to use that extra income to prepare for the inevitable recession right?
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what causes recessions?

Post by macacoalbino »

well idk, I'm saying this because of what's going on here in Brazil. Everyone was warning that government expenditure were too high and that would cost us eventually. And this year we're gonna have recession predicted since the beginning/middle of last year. Nobody could predict exactly when this would happen but they knew that it was coming soon anyway.
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what causes recessions?

Post by macacoalbino »

Oh and in Europe (afaik) the crisis was a shocking surprise because nobody knew how huge Greek debt was, as they were hiding it before the whole thing went off
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what causes recessions?

Post by Jam »

I've been the one causing recessions all along. It was me the whole time and no one suspected a thing! :dancing:

why the fuck is this an emoticon
No Flag Mr. Pecksniff
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what causes recessions?

Post by Mr. Pecksniff »

I can't even see most of these emoticons on iphone :(
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what causes recessions?

Post by momuuu »

frycookofdoom wrote:I can''t even see most of these emoticons on iphone :(

same :(

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