Keep in mind the entire tournament will be played on the ESOC Patch.
If you were seeded in the Ro64, please show up for first round games at 15:00 GMT.
If you were seeded in the Ro32, you may show up starting at 15:45. The Ro32 round deadline is 16:30 GMT.
For any questions or concerns, feel free to reach out to your tournament admins: @BrookG, @Cometk(DJ_Cometk), @iNcog (iNcognoto), and @Mr_Bramboy
Greetings gentlemen, it's time for another edition of Cometk's UNBIASED Predictions
Since it's a weekend event I'll predict the tournament in its entirety. I'll only cover close matchups or ones that I think will be interesting.
Round of 64
FenRiR_29 vs Charlesh// Last I heard of FenRiR he was a second lieutenant and pretty irrelevant. It seems he's made a small jump in ranking and sits at PR28 now. Charlesh to my knowledge is a heat lower level player, and at first I would've had him pegged to win outright. After looking at FenRiR's recent ladder history though, I'm more inclined to think it's a close pairing. Unfortunately, they're playing a shit stupid matchup (Brits vs Otto) which is extremely swing-y. I think at Captain level play it's much easier to execute an Ottoman aggro than it is to do a British defense, and I don't have that much faith in FenRiR to believe he can pull off something special. Riotcoke vs Cry_Baby // I've liked what I've seen of Cry_Baby. He's playing Ottoman in this tournament against Riotcoke's Germany, and although I think Riot is a dogshit loser, he's got a lot more metagame knowledge and game understanding than Cry_Baby does. Cry_Baby seems to have dipped back from close-to-Captain rank and now sits at a low PR24, which kills any hope I might have had for him to win this MU when Riotcoke doesn't troll too hard. MacacoAlbino vs LiamKumar // Macaco (Fre) has always been a player who's performed way below my expectations of him. I think he has a strong degree of mechanical skill, but for some reason to this day he flounders around Captain rank like a beached whale despite having, what I think, the potential for much more. LiamKumar (Chi) seems like a fresh face - this is his tournament debut and he's recently attained Captain rank himself. Liam's recent 1v1 history seems decent, but there's not much of it. As long as Macaco makes enough cuirassier he should win this MU handily. Black_Duck vs DrAzTiK // Looking at the Elo page, apparently this DrAzTiK guy was a Colonel back in 2011? Well it's very apparent that he's a washed up loser now. A Spain mirror is a dumbass dice roll matchup but Black_Duck has more experience on the patch so he's got my faith to win in decent fashion. KNIGHT_Br vs totalchaos // T3rror1sta has for the longest time had a super inflated PR on his smurf accounts - his real skill level sits more around the Major rank, and ironically totalclick, who sometimes sits around the Major rank nowadays, is more accurately a Captain. I don't think bobabu fares very well against Asian civs, and especially against a decent Japan main in an already unfavorable matchup, there's virtually no chance he's making it past Round 1.
Gks_ vs SWF_DarkSultan // This is one I'm honestly not really sure about. Gks_ (Ger) is an average PR26 player, haven't seen anything notable about him. DarkSultan (Russ) had some sort of trajectory and I've been a believer in him, but he's inactive recently and beyond that probably just doesn't have the chops to break into the next level of skill. Gks is the more polished player rn, but Sultan (who didn't send me his fucking civ) got admin-selected Russia which doesn't take that much brainpower to play, so this should end up being a close one. No bet.
Carrédas vs OstiDe// I've had my eyes on Carrédas (Brit) for a while now, but it seems like he's stagnated around the 1st lt rank for over a year. OstiDe (Chi) is a newcomer, but I've already seen his name around a few times. It's a tough civ matchup but I'll put my chips on the player who's shown recent trajectory.
Round of 32
Peediin vs LoOk_tOm // This is an ultra fire pairing between two friends who also happen to be countrymen. They have a long ladder history and play together all the time. It's unfortunate that the civ matchup is garbage, because this might otherwise be a really interesting game - they're playing Peediin's Spain vs LoOk's Otto, a classically softheaded matchup. It'll be an FF war, it might be exciting just because it's extremely swing-y but strategically the MU is pretty much already set in stone. If it were a different map, I would have anticipated LoOk to have the edge, as Otto is more often the play-maker in this matchup and is easier to execute than Spain. However, on Fraser River, with the substantial distance between town centers, I'll give the jump to Peediin, who I feel can make good use of the extra breathing room that the map provides. Mr_Bramboy vs Taunt18 // Kind of interesting I guess - if Bramboy were playing one of his main civs like India or French I might've pegged Taunt18 as the winner. For whatever reason though he's chosen Russia for this tournament. Taunt18 is playing Japan, his main civ. I'm not familiar with Taunt18 at all - he seems like a wishy-washy high captain low major player. Again, if the civ matchup were different, I actually might've expected Taunt18 to have gotten the better of a rusty Bramboy. But I feel given Taunt18's unimpressive ladder history, he'll fold against half-decent Russian execution. Bramboy only needs to have 3 brain cells firing to execute this MU so it really shouldn't be that difficult.
Round of 16
SomppuKunkku vs Conquerer999// It seems it's been a few months since Somppu's played, although it's not as if rustiness should impact him all that much as his style was never predicated on mechanical skill anyway. Conquerer has been on fire since EPL2 where he had a super-solid performance, and definitely put his name back on the map after a botched Winter and lukewarm EPL1 showing. This is another match that's tough to call, since Somppu knows very well how to crack open dick's playstyle, but is several months out of the loop and had a depressing record last time he appeared in a tour. I'll give it to dicktator_ based off momentum but this match could really swing either way. Knuschelbär vs kaister // kaister is a player who I've been high up on for a hot minute - I've long expected him to have a breakout performance, but it seems he's chosen to wallow in mediocrity for longer than I can reliably vouch for him. He did have a decent performance in WarChiefs Classic 2 where he beat Mongo and Samwise, but besides that, he's never exceeded the mark for what his mediocre rank suggests. I wish I could say he's got the chops to be astronomical, but I'll hang up my hat and say that this kid is bound to be a mid-level lt colonel for the rest of his days. Knusch had a good EPL2 run and is considered a solidly top 10 player. He's going to strangle kaister.
mongo10 vs India_Bot1999// Mongo10 is a satisfactory player, but his style has never impressed me. Miggo on the other hand is hot lava, and while that doesn't mean he isn't prone to choking, I think he should be the favorite here, based off mechanical presence, creativity, and a cosmic EPL2 performance. PrinceofKabul vs danielek // There's practically no evidence that danielek is a decent 1v1 player. Prince is hungry for some tournament wins and will eat this little kid.
OPTIMUS__PRIME vs Mongobillione // I said I'd cover the interesting matches, so the least I could do is highlight this one.
Round of 8
Mitoe vs Conquerer999 // It's honestly not all that much to expect Conquerer to break past Mitoe, I think - Mitoe was seeming pretty off in his series vs kynesie for the GUA Sub Tour semi-finals. Still, I'd expect Mitoe to win the French mirror, and then he only needs one win out of two to close out the series. That's a tall order for Conq so this is still a Mitoe favored matchup.
iamturk vs Knuschelbär// iamturk's India play lately has been convincing, but against Knusch's Japan on Kamchatka, I can't say in good faith that turk's India will be favored. That gives Knusch a small edge to lead the series with, and besides that these players are quite well-matched. I'll give Knusch the teensiest edge to win the series based off G1.
Lukas_L99 vs India_Bot1999// Lukas is a high-level pushover, and Miggo is one of the few non-upper-crust players who easily mingles with the pros. Consider this a nuclear take or whatever, but it's not an unlikely reality.
PrinceofKabul vs OPTIMUS__PRIME // not predicting this one but Prince wins.
Semi-Finals
Mitoe vs Knuschelbär// After seeing his really shaky performance earlier this week, I don't think I can peg Mitoe as the favorite. It might largely hinge on how Game 1 goes, but I have a feeling this series will go to match point. India_Bot1999 vs PrinceofKabul // Honestly I've gone bonkers predicting this Cinderella run but fuck it, let's go.
Finals
Knuschelbär vs India_Bot1999 // Even though Knusch might struggle against Aizamk himself, I feel that he should be apt enough at shutting down the Walmart version of Aizamk that is Miggo.
hype for team brasil, and you predicting everyone here winning.
didnt even bother to mention my game vs knush, since it should be a stomp. wait for me kaister.
Mitoe vs Knuschelbär// After seeing his really shaky performance earlier this week, I don't think I can peg Mitoe as the favorite. It might largely hinge on how Game 1 goes, but I have a feeling this series will go to match point. India_Bot1999 vs PrinceofKabul // Honestly I've gone bonkers predicting this Cinderella run but fuck it, let's go.
Finals
Knuschelbär vs India_Bot1999 // Even though Knusch might struggle against Aizamk himself, I feel that he should be apt enough at shutting down the Walmart version of Aizamk that is Miggo.