$1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

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France [Armag] diarouga
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

deleted_user wrote:this is why your predictions sux
Ye, sometimes I wonder if he really believes what he writes, or just does it for the sake of arguing.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by princeofcarthage »

You need to learn to read
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

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Post by gibson »

Anyone who has any clue about anything knows that one group is harder than the others by a mile.
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Post by Riotcoke »

How do I block princeofcarthage?
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by princeofcarthage »

Go to use profile and add me as foe
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by Rohbrot »

princeofcarthage wrote:Go to use profile and add me as foe
:maniac:
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by princeofcarthage »

gibson wrote:Anyone who has any clue about anything knows that one group is harder than the others by a mile.
Harder is a relative term.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by somp »

gibson wrote:Anyone who has any clue about anything knows that one group is harder than the others by a mile.
yeah that's super obvious. doesn't necessarily mean that the seeding should be done other way, tho
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by gibson »

somp wrote:
gibson wrote:Anyone who has any clue about anything knows that one group is harder than the others by a mile.
yeah that's super obvious. doesn't necessarily mean that the seeding should be done other way, tho
Yea I mean one group has to be the best, seen groups of death in basically every esport. The only thing is I think top 2 from each group, which is standard in event formats like this
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Post by gibson »

princeofcarthage wrote:
gibson wrote:Anyone who has any clue about anything knows that one group is harder than the others by a mile.
Harder is a relative term.
Not in this case. One group is objectively significantly better
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

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Post by miggo1999_ »

I mean the ranking would be a lot more accurate if done by the players rather than this volatile elo, and basically every top player agrees with this, which are the most relevant opinions as they are the only ones who know from experience how good the players are. Easy for princeofcarthage and others to talk about irrelevant metrics when they have no actual clue about the strength of any of the players other than what they've seen in tourneys.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

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Post by Kaiserklein »

Princeofgarbage at it again
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by princeofcarthage »

I think you misunderstand the concept of metrics. They exist purely so that layman can understand at a glance. Whether I have a clue or not is irrelevant. Before you jump to conclusion don't forget that, in player rated NWC, the eventual champion was placed 6th or something.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

And it was still much more accurate than elo ranking.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by princeofcarthage »

1/8 -> 6/8 is pretty inaccurate. Actually this perfectly counters your point. Players themselves have little to no clue about other's strength.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

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Post by harcha »

princeofcarthage wrote:1/8 -> 6/8 is pretty inaccurate. Actually this perfectly counters your point. Players themselves have little to no clue about other's strength.
Yes, because you hold the monopoly of all ESOC knowledge, according to you.
POC wrote:Also I most likely know a whole lot more than you.
POC wrote:Also as an objective third party, and near 100% accuracy of giving correct information, I would say my opinions are more reliable than yours.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

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Post by miggo1999_ »

princeofcarthage wrote:1/8 -> 6/8 is pretty inaccurate. Actually this perfectly counters your point. Players themselves have little to no clue about other's strength.
gg wp
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by princeofcarthage »

Stop putting words in my mouth or in this case my posts. @harcha
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Post by [Armag] diarouga »

princeofcarthage wrote:1/8 -> 6/8 is pretty inaccurate. Actually this perfectly counters your point. Players themselves have little to no clue about other's strength.
I wasn't #1 before the tourney though, and I'm just one player out of 8. The idea when seeding players isn't to predict who's going to win (it's not a betting event lol), it's to seed players based on their strenghts (and thus their likelihood to win) to have fair brackets.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by JKProwler »

I think the elo is good to get a cut off for qualifiers but in regards to seeding I think there requires some other variables.

But tbh all these issues might have been avoided if Kaiserklein didn't drop like 5 places just before cut off...if he stayed like 2nd or 3rd place the group stages would have looked very good and no1 would be commenting about elo placement
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

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Post by Hazza54321 »

I blame kaiserklein for everything
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by princeofcarthage »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:
princeofcarthage wrote:1/8 -> 6/8 is pretty inaccurate. Actually this perfectly counters your point. Players themselves have little to no clue about other's strength.
I wasn't #1 before the tourney though, and I'm just one player out of 8. The idea when seeding players isn't to predict who's going to win (it's not a betting event lol), it's to seed players based on their strenghts (and thus their likelihood to win) to have fair brackets.
But in a sense it is exactly that. When each player gives you a rank or seed or power or whatever they are basically predicting by end of tournament you should be at that position or nearby. When player says A is 1 and B is 8 it clearly implies. So if a player receives 6th seed and goes on to win the tournament it implies that rest of players have misjudged the strength of the players and then your whole arguement falls apart. I don't have seed table do you have it? We can even compare rest of players to further my point if you want.

In your mind to satisfy your point of view the brackets may seem fair but objectively they are not based on quantifiable metrics.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by Kaiserklein »

JKProwler wrote:I think the elo is good to get a cut off for qualifiers but in regards to seeding I think there requires some other variables.

But tbh all these issues might have been avoided if Kaiserklein didn't drop like 5 places just before cut off...if he stayed like 2nd or 3rd place the group stages would have looked very good and no1 would be commenting about elo placement
Well I'm too lazy to simulate a new seeding if I was #1, but it might have not been better than this. Regardless, 1 player dropping a few places shouldn't fuck up the entire elo seeding, if it does then the system just sucks.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

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Post by Le Hussard sur le toit »

The K-factor of DE elo system seems a bit odd tbh, it probably should be decreased for the top players at least. In chess your K-factor varies depending on your elo, age and number of games.
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Re: $1000 ESOC Challenge Cup - Group Stage Reveal

Post by PatrickLFC »

princeofcarthage wrote:
[Armag] diarouga wrote:
princeofcarthage wrote:1/8 -> 6/8 is pretty inaccurate. Actually this perfectly counters your point. Players themselves have little to no clue about other's strength.
I wasn't #1 before the tourney though, and I'm just one player out of 8. The idea when seeding players isn't to predict who's going to win (it's not a betting event lol), it's to seed players based on their strenghts (and thus their likelihood to win) to have fair brackets.
But in a sense it is exactly that. When each player gives you a rank or seed or power or whatever they are basically predicting by end of tournament you should be at that position or nearby. When player says A is 1 and B is 8 it clearly implies. So if a player receives 6th seed and goes on to win the tournament it implies that rest of players have misjudged the strength of the players and then your whole arguement falls apart. I don't have seed table do you have it? We can even compare rest of players to further my point if you want.

In your mind to satisfy your point of view the brackets may seem fair but objectively they are not based on quantifiable metrics.
The margins are pretty thin at the top level, so if you play that tournament 100 times, you'll get a variety of results, and maybe they better reflect the seedings? You can't say the seedings are wrong based on the small sample size of one tournament. If seedings were perfectly predictive you wouldn't bother playing the tournament since you'd already know the outcome.

ELO isn't a perfect system either since it reflects (very) recent gameplay under certain QS conditions which don't match the tournament conditions (different maps, counterpicking etc) and chances are the top players have a better idea of who they consider the strongest in tournament circumstances. Both versions are subjective but ELO at this early stage seems super volatile.

Having said that, as brutal as it is, watching the group of death is going to be super compelling as a viewer!

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