The ESOC Challenge Cup – Group Stage Roundup
Event Streamed Every Saturday and Sunday on ESOCTV
Dubbed as one of the most stacked AoE3 tournament in years, the ESOC Challenge Cup hosted this February will undoubtedly be a tournament remembered for a long time to come. One of the first big tournaments of the AoE3:DE era, the Challenge Cup features a cast of players exclusively from the highest peaks of the 1v1 Supremacy leaderboard, with only a handful of top-level players botching participation. Join us every weekend on
ESOCTV, where the high-octane Group Stage matches will be streamed every Saturday and Sunday leading up to the Finals bash at the end of the month. If you're a newcomer to the scene and want an inside look into the competitive AoE3 community, look no further. We've gathered a panel of outstanding community members to give us their unbiased insights into the characters of the ESOC Challenge Cup and how they believe the event will shake out.
Without further ado, let's welcome our panelists:
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minimoult21 –
I represent a relative unknown. Age 3 has always been my favorite installment in the series. I played over a decade ago. After a long hiatus, returned to an awesome community. I do my part to help share the love for this game. Known for being soft spoken with helpful tips and sloppy Dutch gameplay. Reigning EPL2 Champ! MDS4LIFE!
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Vinyanyérë –
Co-host of the AoE3 community's fourth-most popular podcast. One-trick lamer of the community's sixteenth-most popular civ. World record holder of the community's up-and-coming fifth seat pro to casting desk to coaching desk to analyst desk speedrun.
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Aussie_Drongo –
A veteran of the game, Aussie_Drongo played AoE3 competitively back in the late 2000's before going MIA. With the release of the Definitive Edition in October 2020, Drongo returned to the AOE3 scene, bringing his experience, his wit, and a much appreciated flurry of AOE3 content to both YouTube and to Twitch.
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Mitoe –
Decent player and 12-year veteran of AoE3. Occasionally expresses self-loathing of his own gameplay. Future braggart upon completion of the group stage.
The Groups
The ESOC Challenge Cup features only the 16 highest-rated players who signed up to participate in the event. The players were ordered sequentially from highest to lowest Elo rating on the 1v1 Supremacy leaderboard and sorted into 4 groups, with 4 players in each group. To make it out of the Group Stage alive, a player will need to win as many of their matches as possible. However, every game counts, as in the case of a tiebreaker, the total # of game wins the player accrued can be the deciding factor of if they move on to the Semi-Finals stage or not.
The ESOC Challenge Cup features Samwise12, Haitch, kynesie, Knuschelbär, Ezad, Lecastete, optibb, Mitoe, Kaiserklein, Kévin, LukasL, SoldieR, miggo1999, kaister, PrinceofKabul, and iamturk. Not every player who signed up made the top 16. Even high caliber sign-ups like H2O_ and Aizamk missed qualification. For those just joining us in the AoE3 community, let's take a deep dive into just who are the challengers in this ESOC event.
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Group A features a full roster of tournament-winners. Both Samwise12 and Mitoe have ESOC Championship titles under their belt. Kaiserklein has been the victor of innumerable weekend and minor tournaments. iamturk peaked #1 on ladder some time ago and was the victor of the original Empire Cup held in 2020. This group is blazing hot with AoE3 talent.
This is coined the group of death for obvious reasons. Everyone here is a powerhouse. You have the Legend (Mr. “Samwise12” Mittens), the Strategist (Happy Birthday “Mitoe”!), the Possible GOAT (“Kaiserklein”), and Mr. Mechanics himself, “iamturk”. All four have held their own at the top at one point or another. I have Samwise making it out of the group with a record of 3-0 series wins. His series will go to game 5 vs Kaiser and Mitoe, but he will prevail in game 5. His series vs Turk will go his way (3-1). Next up, I have Kaiser taking the second seed. Again, I think the series vs Mitoe will be taken to game 5 with Kaiser escaping with a $50 prize. Kaiser has more game time on DE and will take the series vs Turk (3-1) with Turk winning a game as Japan. Mitoe, even though he played well, will only have 1 series win. In any other group, all of these players could have been the top seed. I will be excited to see what these players have cooked up. I would love to see some crazy new strats, that shake up the meta and break my predictions.
So the group stage reveal, look at group A, fuck that dude, honestly if this tournament was held and any one of these guys won, I'd be like yep I could see that happening. These guys are all literal gods. Each one of these guys has held the keys to the city at some time in the past, and in 1 months time, when it's all said and done, I won't be surprised to see any single of these guys holding up the trophy. If I was going to be betting my Drongo Berries on someone though, I'd have to put my berries on none other than the Kaiserklein. Despite being seed 9, there's just something about this fearless french fanatic that makes me think he'll have the guts to take it all the way.
Oh boy, what a group. The other 3 groups in this tournament all have strong players, each with a single player holding at least a single tournament victory. Group A? Oh no, not group A. All 4 of Group A's players are tournament champions, 3 of whom have won multiple tournaments and are also ranked #2, #3, and #4 on the ranked 1v1 ladder at the time of writing. It's also my group, unfortunately for Samwise, Kaiserklein, and iamturk
Well, this group has already delivered. Not because we've seen any great series yet (although we have), but because this group gave us a hundred-post thread brimming with what I'm sure are respectful and thoroughly researched analyses of exactly how-best to seed a tournament.
For real, though, this group is stacked. Any one of these players would be a reasonable contender or the outright favorite to win any of the other groups, and it's a shame that only one of them will make it out. On the bright side, though, putting all of these players into a single group guarantees that they'll all play each other and give us a ton of great series to watch.
As for how this group will shake out, a good data point is 2020's Stay-At-Home Cup, where we had a chance to view three out of the six matchups. Kaiserklein took the best record there (and the tournament W) by defeating both Samwise and Mitoe, while Samwise in turn pulled off a victory against iamturk in the quarterfinals. The scores in those series were close - always 4-2 or closer - and tell us that the ranking and eventual winner of the group is far from a foregone conclusion. More recent results reflect this too: in the GoodHouse Cup, for instance, a Kaiserklein-Samwise pairing in the semifinals gave us another 4-3 score.
Overall, the winner of this group will probably still be Kaiserklein, but it'll be a closer result than if these matches had to be played right after EPL2 rather than in 2021. Samwise has lost to Kaiserklein 3-4 twice now in the last year, and has a good chance at getting his revenge. Mitoe is a good contender here, but will need to either overcome whatever mental block or curse he seems to hit whenever he pairs up against Kaiser (which has happened a lot in the past year). Unfortunately for iamturk, who is 0-1 at this point, he likely places last, but it'd be more fair to call him the least-best of the group rather than the worst.
Projected Winner: Kaiserklein
$GME Award for player most likely to raise hopes to inspiring heights and then immediately crush them: Mitoe
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Group B includes a more diverse cast of characters. The frontrunner of the group, Haitch, won not only the most recent ESOC event in the Goodhouse Cup, but also won the most recent ESOC Championship, taking gold in the 2020 Winter Championship. Prinz is a choice encounter, a relic against time and the former mentor of Haitch. While a bit of a boomer, Prinz had major success in the New World Championship 2019, being a top 8 qualifier for the LAN event. optibb and Kévin are both dark horses - the duo were actually teammates representing the Cuirassier Management Co. in the recent ESOC Premier League (EPL) Season 2. Optimus is no stranger to purloining games from top players when they least expect it, in addition to being a ladder paragon. Kévin had his breakout appearance in the EPL, finishing the round robin stage of the season with a record of 16 wins, 9 losses.
Group B is made up of Haitch (aka Hazza) and the runner up. There is nothing against the other players in this group, it is just that Haitch is on a completely different level as of right now. I can say with confidence that he will wipe the floor with this group. He will not let any series go to game 5 with his hardest opponent possibly being his old Senpai, Prinz. After Haitch, is when the real predictions begin. Second place in this group would have to go to Prinz. A veteran that knows the game, and thrives in tournament settings. He will not drop another series after losing to Haitch. Verses Optimus_Prime and Kevin, Prinz will win the series (3-1). His civ pool is strong on the map set and will be reflected in his wins. Third place will go to Optimus. He will be able to defeat Kevin in a close series (3-2). Optimus is a player to put in the hours and study the situation. I expect him to have some very clean games that go according to plan and then some games that go up in smoke and end terribly wrong. This is Optimus’s playstyle. He will leave the audience either Dazzled by his brilliance or absolutely dumbfounded. There will be no in between. It is great that Kevin will get his feet wet in DE tournaments. I’m sure there will be plenty more of Kevin in the future, but unfortunately for him, this will not be his tournament.
Group B will go to Haitch, I recon Haitch is going to blitz it, he will 3-0 it. Now I don't mean any disrespect to the gentlemen in the group with Haitch, they were obviously able to get into the top 16 and were able to perform, but I've never played against Prinz, I understand he was typically a team player, I know that he made it to quite a high level in previous 1v1 tournaments as well, I don't know how active he is at the moment, I don't know whether he is rusty or not, but after Haitch's most recent tournament victory, my money is on him. Kevin has been grinding the ladder hard and has had some recent impressive victories, including against my main man h20. I know that Optibb can be a little hit and miss too, and while he may take a game from Haitch, I still think he's going to blitz this group, and use that momentum to power through the finals to a tournament victory. Haitch will take this tournament, and is the player I'd wager every single one of my ESOC points on for victory in this entire thing.
Haitch (better known as Hazza) is the clear favourite in this group, having been extremely successful at the highest levels of play the last 2 years--across multiple game modes no less. I expect him to win all of his matches fairly comfortably, but that does not mean he is invincible. Opti's unorthodox and often aggressive playstyle could still give our front-runner some problems, and Kevin has been improving fairly quickly in recent months. Either of them could take a game or two off of Haitch, even if they are unlikely to take the series. Prinz is no joke himself, though as he readily admits he is a bit washed up and semi-retired, which puts him at a bit of disadvantage.
Haitch/Hazza leads this group as an obvious favorite, having just come off of a tournament win in the GoodHouse Cup against the exemplary Kaiserklein and no shortage of ladder practice to back it up. Of all the players who weren't seeded into Group A, he and perhaps Knuschelbär are the only two who can be considered as the caliber as those who were. For Hazza, then, the group stage will be a warmup for the real matches rather than a serious threat to his tournament lifespan.
The rest of the players have a tough battle ahead, but an upset is a real possibility. Prinz leads the pack of potential usurpers, being an NWC top 8
player like Hazza and a longtime tournament mainstay. Prinz has a penchant for always making the Ro16 or Ro8 of a major but never progressing further, and the chances of a win don't look great in the 'washed up" phase of his career, but surprises can happen. optibb, or OPTIMUS__PRIME, is infamous for having some very strange games and a playstyle that can be extremely difficult to handle. It'll probably lead to a few game wins, but the problem with non-meta playstyles is that it - almost by definition - isn't very good. I haven't seen too much out of Kévin since EPL2, but he did have a pretty good record there, being the only CMC member besides Kaiser (and Riotcoke I guess) with a positive record. Getting to top 16 on the ladder is no small feat either, meaning that he must have improved substantially since the EPL.
Most likely Haitch will be taking this group without too much trouble, though if Prinz does pull it off I look forward to an Obi-Wan style "You were the chosen one!" speech delivered between the two ex-SKG clanmates.
Projected Winner: Haitch
$TSLA Award for player who will probably do really well for seemingly no good reason: optibb
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Group C presents a clash in styles and personalities. Quiet kynesie is back after a tournament hiatus, yet is as threatening as ever with an impressive ladder peak, proving that his 2nd place finish years back in the 2018 Autumn Championship was no fluke. LukasL is also lowkey personality, with no supremacy event wins yet a high degree of top-level proximity. He achieved 4th place in the 2020 Winter Championship, and came out standing when faced with a death roster of opponents in the ESOC Premier League Season 2. Lecastete had a rocky EPL2 but has been making waves on the DE leaderboard, being a feisty challenger for the rest of the top 10. With the help of a recent hardware upgrade, the rambunctious kaister clobbered his way through the ranks to qualify for this event, wielding a formidable Lakota style that manages to strike fear into even the most worthy of opponents.
I am very interested in this group. I personally cannot believe the human trashcan (aka Kaister) clawed his way up the ranks just in time to make the cut off. There are quite a few strong players here. Three of these players are first picks for their EPL team. They are top talent right under the team champions. They all have their unique style that could create some close and dynamic series. However, we need to speak to the Blackhorse of the group, Kaister. I believe that he can take this group by storm. This will be quite a weird group and I’m going to make a bold prediction. Kaister will reign victorious through the tie breaker. He will defeat the upcoming powerhouse Frenchman, Lecastete_, in a close (3-1) series, then beat Kynesie in another close series (3-2). He will fall short vs another well versed Lakota lamer, LukasL in yet another (3-2) series. However, Kaister will sneak through to the knockout stage because Lecastete_ will beat Lukas (3-1) leaving both himself and Lukas with only 7 wins in the group. Kynesie will remain King of the water, winning all of his water maps, but will be a fish out of water on the land maps not taking a single game. This group could lead to some of the closest series of the group stage.
Another insane group. A huge amount of talent here with each player so evenly matched, but my bet goes to Kynesie, just because the amount of times I've played against him and experienced his walls and propensity to delay the game until his economic edge can overcome the opponent's short term military edge. While Lecastete, Lukas and Kaiser are all incredibly strong opponents, I expect to see Mr Walls & Boats sweep this group.
This is a tough group to call. Poseidon himse--erm, I mean Kynesie--has a slight edge in this group compared to others. His mastery of water-play gives him a clear advantage over his opponents on Manchuria and Baja California, leaving him with only 1 win to pick up on the other 3 maps. He has also spent a great deal of time on DE exploring one of the new civilizations, the Incans, and they seem to fit his turtle-like playstyle like a glove on the land maps. He is by no means infallible, however, as Lecastete, LukasL, and even Kaister are all strong players in their own right, and arguably have a significant edge over Kynesie on land maps. Honestly, any one of these 4 could win this group and it should be an exciting watch.
I'm really excited to see Lecastete or Lukas finally breakthrough and...wait, is that Kynesie? He's playing?
This will be a pretty close group. Among Kynesie, LukasL, and Lecastete_, there's a plausible chance for any of them to make it out. LukasL had been looking poised to hit a tournament finals or even a victory last year - disappointingly, that never happened, and he seemed to have slumped a little from the promising 2019 results. But a new year means a new Lukas, and he has a very real chance of making it through this group, defeating Hazza (he did that in EPL2 after all, didn't he?), and seeing a silver or a gold. Lecastete is perhaps not rated quite as highly as Lukas, but he has potential too - from an EPL1 5th seat to an EPL2 2nd seat and now to a top 16 tournament seed, a good showing here will put Lecastete on the map.
I haven't seen any of Kynesie's play since DE's release. To be honest, I didn't even know he was playing it. But he's an excellent player with a highly divisive style (I'm on the side of the fans) and it'll be great to see what he's been up to, especially with the new Incan civilization. Notably, Kynesie's style is best-suited to water maps, and Group C has one great water map (Baja California), a pretty good water map (Manchuria), two maps that technically have water, and one map that is a desert. Two out of five is a decent place to be if you're Kynesie, but his opponents, especially those who are comfortable with water, will have plenty of counterplay.
Lastly comes kaister. kaister isn't bad, but his odds here are a pretty long shot. His edging into the top 16 was a surprise, and he's not usually put on the same tier of players as the rest of his group, but stranger things have happened.
Projected Winner: Kynesie
$DOGE Award for player who's mostly there for the memes but who knows: kaister
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Group D may be the closest of them all. Knusch stands as the man to beat, another ladder demon with numerous recent tournament achievements, most notably a 1st place victory over fellow groupmate miggo1999 in the Empire Cup 2 Finals. Miggo's hot and cold relationship with AoE3 should not shake ones confidence in his abilities, given his penchant for exceeding expectations and penetrating the later stages of events. Loose cannon SoldieR earned a spot after some admittedly rough first appearances in AoE3:DE events. Eager to perform, SoldieR can't be counted out though after a stellar record in the ESOC Premier League Season 2. Ezad made his way into the Challenge Cup with ease with an impressive #5 ladder position. An underrated asset, this likely indicates in upward trend in his playing abilities from Legacy AoE3.
Group D is comprised of very evenly skilled players. I would say the only real exception is that maybe Knusch is a bit better than the rest. Knusch has been grinding the ladder a good bit, experimenting with various civs. He likes to go into quick search as random. Due to the fact that he has played so many games on various civs and that he was a monster on EP, I’m expecting Knuschelbar to make it out of the group going 3-0 in series wins. Soldier and Miggo will give him a run for his money but will eventually fall in close (3-2) series. Ezad will have his work cut out for him vs Knuschelbar and take one game off the Group D Champ. I think the second seed is going to be a toss up between Soldier and Miggo. Unfortunately, the map pool is not going to be favoring Miggo’s native TP playstyle. This will allow Soldier to solidify his position as the second-best player in this group. He will defeat both Miggo and Ezad (3-1). Lastly, Miggo and Ezad will be fighting for only bragging rights. I believe this to be a close series going (3-2) in Miggo’s favor. This won’t be the end for Ezad though. He will continue to be a name you hear in these tournaments. He has been a solid player for a few years now, and I expect him to make a late tournament run soon.
The last group but definitely not the least, similarly to group C, each player here just of such a high calibre, it is really impressive to see the level of skill that is showing up for this tournament. Despite the individual strength of Ezad, SoldieR and miggo1999, my thoughts are that Knusch will clean sweep this group. He has spent a lot of time on the ladder recently, with an incredibly diverse civ pool, making me think that he is going to have an answer to any potential challenge his opponents throw at him.
Knuschelbar takes the cake in our final group. He has been sitting at the top of the DE ladder since launch, and has been practicing all civilizations. Ezad, SoldieR, and miggo1999 trail behind him, and while defeating Knuschelbar will be difficult, it is certainly not impossible. This may be the only group where all 4 players often deviate from the "standard" metagame, and could leave us with some unexpected results.
Knuschelbär stands out as a favorite here, but this group could end up being pretty close. Both SoldieR and Knuschelbär are favored against the other players in this group, miggo and Ezad, and thus the group winner could come down to the Bo5 between the top two. We saw that matchup in EPL2, where Knuschelbär nearly picked up a sweep, nearly got reverse-swept, and ended the series 3-2. It was an excellent (and very long) series highly worth watching, and points to a Knuschelbär win when the players meet in the group stage here. But SoldieR is an extremely skilled player as well, and the pairing will by no means be a walkover in either direction.
miggo1999 and Ezad will have a harder time of it. They're undoubtedly strong players, but it's hard to see them realistically beating Knuschelbär. However, if either one of them is able to pull out a win against SoldieR, Knuschelbär's time in the group becomes a lot easier and the possibility of the result being determined by tiebreakers emerges.
Projected Winner: Knuschelbär
$SABR Award for player who's a pretty good bet nonetheless (this is not financial advice): SoldieR
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And that's the event. Check out
eso-community.net to stay up-to-date on the event schedule and join us on
ESOCTV every Saturday and Sunday of the month of February to catch the action of the ESOC Challenge Cup.
