Betting results: Round of 8

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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Posts: 13006
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Betting results: Round of 8

Post by Goodspeed »

The latest betting matches, and this includes the round of 8 as well as the first semi-final, featured quite a number of upsets. The average winning odds are up 4 compared to last round, now 16.56. That means the average payout people received for their winning bets was 16.56 times the amount they bet, and in many cases that's a lot of points. Here are the biggest wins of this round in order:
Zoom won 14375 points when MusketJr upset our previous champion Blackstar.
Oxaloacetate won 12150 points when ACERGAME upset MusketJr in the semis and slams himself into the top 3 out of nowhere.
I won 9080 points when goongoon beat Fard 4-1, a somewhat overlooked result.
And Somppukunkku, our previous betting winner, won 7690 points when ACER unexpectedly beat kynesie 4-3.

It'll be no surprise to anyone that these are all names you can find in the current betting top 5. The surprise of this round however, is none of these people. The surprise is Samwise12, who after proving time and time again that he, while somewhat decent at AoE3, is terrible at betting has finally managed to win points, and most of them off the back of his 4-0 victory against Mitoe which was the only result Sam was allowed to bet on considering this was his own match. Showing his confidence he bet 1000 on himself winning as well as 1000 on the 4-0 and raked in 5880 points. In the latest match he won another 4290 and is now sitting in 4th place. He's not only in the semi-finals of this event and looking sharp, this kid's on fire in betting as well. Grats to him!

Zoom still sits comfortably in first with his stack of 23750 points, but he's lost some points this round. How? It looks like he underestimates ACERGAME, since he lost a total of almost 5000 points betting against him. Zoom's looked solid in other matches though, winning good money off Sam's 4-0 victory and of course there's his record shattering win in the MusketJr vs Blackstar match. Our man to beat looks mortal, but strong. If there's anything last betting tournament proved though, it's that anything can still happen in the finals.

Meanwhile poor Mirari, who was on 10000 points not too long ago, found nothing but misfortune this round and has zero points left :( He was the biggest victim of the Blackstar ordeal, losing 3000 points that match. Unlucky! :(

[a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MEhGlu6RCW85fv62Gd8pcIhhWmmAEW5YTi-F6c9-tJk/edit#gid=465518957"]Blackstar (FORFEIT) 2-3 MusketJr[/a] odds ~27
[a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MEhGlu6RCW85fv62Gd8pcIhhWmmAEW5YTi-F6c9-tJk/edit#gid=1702768358"]kynesie 3-4 ACERGAME09[/a] odds 10.9
[a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MEhGlu6RCW85fv62Gd8pcIhhWmmAEW5YTi-F6c9-tJk/edit#gid=1772717361"]Mitoe 0-4 Samwise12[/a] odds 6.35
[a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MEhGlu6RCW85fv62Gd8pcIhhWmmAEW5YTi-F6c9-tJk/edit#gid=5699039"]goongoon 4-1 Fard[/a] odds 11.58

This round's stats
Average winning odds: 16.56
Total points bet: 159889
Biggest winner: zoom (+14250)
Biggest loser: Mirari (-6000)


[font color="#000305" size="4"]ASC Summer totals[/font]

Players: 87
Bets: 548386
Rounds: 26
Inflation: 45.39% (average points per player right now is 2181)

Records
Biggest profit in a single match: zoom (ro8: Blackstar_OP FORFEIT 2-3 MusketJr) - 14375 points
Most unexpected result: ACERGAME09 4-1 MusketJr (ro4) - odds 27.3
Most points bet on a single match: Mitoe 0-4 Samwise12 - 41825 points
Most points bet total: Jocroy - 54855 points

View the standings [a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MEhGlu6RCW85fv62Gd8pcIhhWmmAEW5YTi-F6c9-tJk/edit#gid=247843266"]here[/a]. The leftmost round is current, and to the right you will find history of previous rounds.

[font color="#21e619"]If you're not betting yet and would like to sign up, message me.[/font]

[spoiler]{Spoiler}{[font color="#ffffff"]Spoiler[/font]}
@incog
@kingofosmane
@bramboy
@samwise12
@stubb
@lordcharlie131
@cometk
@cerebralassasin
@diarouga
@britishmusketeer
@ovi12
@eaglemut
@iamsoldier
@janerator
@blackwidow
@rickytickitembo
@yoda
@benj89
@nathanielblack
@lemmings121
@aligator92
@ponipoika
@hermes
@mcjim
@aoefan4life
@lordraphael
@bart331
@mnogobillione
@venividivici
@zoom
@giveuanxiety
@nazz121
@somppukunkku
@matuiss2
@i8035
@papist
@macacoalbino
@oceanic
@cucko0
@oxaloacetate
@edeholland
@blackout
@wickedcossack
@garja
@musketjr
@jocroy
@comegetsome
@mitoe
@niedhalf
@method
@koenigerik1
@liverbird
@venox
@gambler
@jwall0007
@marco1698
@hunter
@jkl
@karlo
@stanleywinston
@hellotissue
@richard
@cramper
@krijner
@shaolinstar
@mtthwsttr
@kaiserklein
@genpatton
@thebritish
@bpdscolony123
@h2o
@janphilippr[/spoiler]
No Flag deleted_user0
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Betting results: Round of 8

Post by deleted_user0 »

I hope you raise betting limit (from 1k) on the finals so we can still catch zoi ')
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Posts: 13006
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Betting results: Round of 8

Post by Goodspeed »

Nope, you're probably gonna have to hope for an upset :) Thing is if he is so far ahead that he can no longer be caught he deserves to win. The finals shouldn't be the only relevant series in the betting event.
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Tuvalu gibson
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Betting results: Round of 8

Post by gibson »

I still wanna know how inflation happens.....
No Flag deleted_user0
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Betting results: Round of 8

Post by deleted_user0 »

calmyourtits wrote:Nope, you''re probably gonna have to hope for an upset :) Thing is if he is so far ahead that he can no longer be caught he deserves to win. The finals shouldn''t be the only relevant series in the betting event.
You kept raising it last game. But now Zoi can bet 1k on every result so this betting event is practically over.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Posts: 13006
Joined: Feb 27, 2015

Betting results: Round of 8

Post by Goodspeed »

You raise a valid point and I've already thought of how I'm going to deal with it next event, but this time you're gonna have to win in both the second semi and the finals, as well as the 3rd place match which we will be betting on this time.
You can't catch zoi in 1 match any more. Gonna need to win over time, or hope he loses.

@gibson it's because all the result odds are inflated. Specifically they all get a value added to them based on how favoured the player is (the less favoured the higher this value).

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