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Singapore Thrar
ESOC Dev Team
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ESO: Thrar

12 May 2019, 02:07

Goodspeed wrote:Hazza was expected to win against Soldier, but the sweep was unexpected.

Sacre bleu! :shock:
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United States of America Cometk
ESOC Media Team
Posts: 3409
ESO: DJ_Cometk
Location: California

12 May 2019, 21:07

@somppukunkku honorary vlrGS member
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France bwinner
Howdah
Donator 01
Posts: 1039
ESO: bwinner

12 May 2019, 21:17

Meh wanted to bet for tabben but reversed A and B for the score :( (hopefully I have placed the right bet for the winner).
Would be ahead otherwise
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France Aykin Haraka
Lancer
EWT
Posts: 715
ESO: Aykin

12 May 2019, 21:24

nice signature
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United States of America Cometk
ESOC Media Team
Posts: 3409
ESO: DJ_Cometk
Location: California

13 May 2019, 19:07

@Goodspeed @tabben @Kynesie @GiBthedurrty @Lukas_L99 1500 each to these guys
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India rsy
Howdah
Donator 01
Posts: 1550
ESO: Rsy
Location: USA
GameRanger ID: 665696

13 May 2019, 20:41

Cometk wrote:@Goodspeed @tabben @Kynesie @GiBthedurrty @Lukas_L99 1500 each to these guys

Such generosity and on His birthday too wow!
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Bavaria j_t_kirk
Lancer
Posts: 599
ESO: j_t_kirk
Location: Bavaria

13 May 2019, 21:57

Happy Birthday @Cometk :flowers:
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Poland TheNameDaniel
Skirmisher
Posts: 148
ESO: Danielek
Location: UK

13 May 2019, 22:03

Happy Besday!
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France Charlesh
Musketeer
Posts: 57
ESO: Charlesh

14 May 2019, 18:38

Happy birthday Man !! @Cometk
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Germany Lukas_L99
Howdah
Donator 01
Posts: 1357
ESO: Lukas_L99
Location: Frankfurt

14 May 2019, 20:33

Unhappy Birthday! :flowers: @Cometk
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India gh0st
Lancer
Posts: 864
ESO: gh0st007
Location: India

14 May 2019, 23:31

Happy bday mitoe cometk
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 7333

20 May 2019, 20:47

Attention betters who were out of points: The betting Gods were getting jealous of @Cometk, who is becoming known as the biggest donator in betting history, and decided, in their infinite wisdom and benevolence, to award all betters with another 5000 points to use for the LAN event in July. A total of 350000 points in donations! And to top it off, as an extra power move they even awarded an additional 5000 points to Cometk.
Spend these points wisely, because this will be the last time you'll get any for free! Donations are still allowed, of course.


Rule change: Due to the very high inflation, the limit of 1000 points per result is no longer sufficient. It will be changed to 5000.

With that out of the way, there are some updates in the standings. @Thrar is (still) our glorious leader, with 45861 points. You might think this is a lot, but after the Venezuela-level inflation that just happened it's not as much as you think. He is vulnerable. Repeatedly trading spots with Cometk throughout the past 15 matches, with large point swings a common occurrence, he could be at 10k points a couple of matches from now. In fact, he was at 18k just 2 matches ago.

Cometk hasn't been doing as well in recent times. He now sits at 7th place with 18446 points (having donated a total of 23500). But if history is any indication, he will be back on top sooner or later.
An up and comer is @somppukunkku, who is aiming for his third betting victory. He is now in second place, and looking very solid in recent matches. This is a man who clearly knows the players well, and could be dangerous to Thrar.
You can also never count out a @zoom with 5k points.

But there are not many matches left now. How many we don't exactly know yet, but there are only so many opportunities to win from here. Luckily, we all have some time to devise a strategy and the new limit on result betting will allow for bigger swings than usual. Best of luck to all!

Because Tit did not play game 7 against snowww, bets on this match could not be counted and all points have been reimbursed. Fun fact: Had Tit really won 4-3, Thrar would have won over 40000 points and would now be sitting at ~80000. That would have broken the all time records for most points ever and the one for most points won in a single match. It wasn't meant to be, though.

The betting event will rest until July.

Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Italy Garja
ESOC Maps Team
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Posts: 7406
ESO: Garja

20 May 2019, 20:58

Consider having a very low bet limit throughout whole contest for next edition. Especially in comparison with the initial stack.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 7333

20 May 2019, 21:15

If you make it too low, after a certain amount of matches the people on the bottom of the standings don't stand a chance anymore and the people on top just keep betting the max on every match. You even see this in the current events in the later stages. Imo it should be possible (technically possible, with perfect luck) for everyone near the average amount of points to win until there are 3 or 4 matches left.
Could consider lowering it a bit though.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
Canada vividlyplain
Crossbow
Posts: 42
ESO: vividlyplain

20 May 2019, 21:23

I'm still accepting donations!
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Norway iwillspankyou
Gendarme
iwillspankyou
Posts: 5212

20 May 2019, 21:28

@Cometk has already won, the donation point game ;) I challenge anyone to beat that score. :P
thank you for the points Goodspeed, I can bet again, and squander it in one big bang :shock:
Hippocrits are the worst of animals. I love elifants.
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United States of America Cometk
ESOC Media Team
Posts: 3409
ESO: DJ_Cometk
Location: California

20 May 2019, 21:30

I only ever donated so I'd have more lowbobs to bankrupt
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Italy Garja
ESOC Maps Team
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Posts: 7406
ESO: Garja

20 May 2019, 21:33

Goodspeed wrote:If you make it too low, after a certain amount of matches the people on the bottom of the standings don't stand a chance anymore and the people on top just keep betting the max on every match. You even see this in the current events in the later stages. Imo it should be possible (technically possible, with perfect luck) for everyone near the average amount of points to win until there are 3 or 4 matches left, imo.
Could consider lowering it a bit though.

It is actually the opposite if you think about. By keeping betting limit low in relation to the original stack there is less inflaction and every single match is going to be relevant. Of course if dont' win a single bet you probably won't be able to fight for the first pot.
High amount of betting makes combacks possible but it also makes players go way too far on top. In fact there less chance to comeback with this system imo.
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Singapore Thrar
ESOC Dev Team
Posts: 55
ESO: Thrar

21 May 2019, 01:49

Goodspeed wrote:Fun fact: Had Tit really won 4-3, Thrar would have won over 40000 points and would now be sitting at ~80000. That would have broken the all time records for most points ever, as well as the all-time record for most points won in a single match. It wasn't meant to be, though.

:shock: I want my points! Je veux mes points! :shock: :grin:

Garja wrote:It is actually the opposite if you think about. By keeping betting limit low in relation to the original stack there is less inflaction and every single match is going to be relevant. Of course if dont' win a single bet you probably won't be able to fight for the first pot.
High amount of betting makes combacks possible but it also makes players go way too far on top. In fact there less chance to comeback with this system imo.

That's my point of view as well. The current relation between max bets vs starting amounts allows for heavy snowballing, because players with some initial luck skill can afford to bet larger and larger amounts. If you're betting 1500 points while someone else is betting 10000, the 10k point player can even afford betting more cautiously (e.g. more individual results) and still make bigger gains on absolute.

Given the 1500 starting points, I think max bets as low as 100 on the winner and 20 on individual results would work well (or multiply all by 10 if you prefer bigger numbers). This way the playing field is level and you'll need some seriously bad streaks to drop to the point where you can't afford the same bet amounts as everyone else any more. The snowball effect would be practically gone, because everyone's bets would be equally capped by the maximum rather than by their available points.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Posts: 7333

21 May 2019, 07:32

Garja wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:If you make it too low, after a certain amount of matches the people on the bottom of the standings don't stand a chance anymore and the people on top just keep betting the max on every match. You even see this in the current events in the later stages. Imo it should be possible (technically possible, with perfect luck) for everyone near the average amount of points to win until there are 3 or 4 matches left, imo.
Could consider lowering it a bit though.

It is actually the opposite if you think about. By keeping betting limit low in relation to the original stack there is less inflaction and every single match is going to be relevant. Of course if dont' win a single bet you probably won't be able to fight for the first pot.
High amount of betting makes combacks possible but it also makes players go way too far on top. In fact there less chance to comeback with this system imo.
There is definitely more comeback potential this way. You need only do some maths to prove this. And that's the point: I want everyone to be able to participate until the end. With low limits, when we get to the semi-finals there would be at best like 3 people who can still win. The current way, even someone with 1000 points can still win when we get to the semis, if they bet perfectly.
You say it makes players go way too far on top but historically that hasn't been true. No one has consistently been able to win large amounts of points in order to really secure first place before the semi-finals, and rarely even before the finals. Currently, Thrar is not that far on top. He is 1 big swing away from being replaced by anyone from the top 10.

Also, it's just more flashy with big swings :P
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Italy Garja
ESOC Maps Team
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Posts: 7406
ESO: Garja

21 May 2019, 12:08

The problem is exactly big swings. With low bets group remains compact till the end. With high bets few guys get lucky and go away on top and can only lose if someone gets equally lucky.
Can always make it so that final 8 matches or so have double scoring points.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 7333

21 May 2019, 14:07

Garja wrote:The problem is exactly big swings. With low bets group remains compact till the end. With high bets few guys get lucky and go away on top and can only lose if someone gets equally lucky.
Can always make it so that final 8 matches or so have double scoring points.
With such a system, consistency would win the event. I did add consistency scores (column F of the standings sheet) so that people who are interested can keep track of who is doing well at that.

But preventing big swings, while it may be the fairest possible system, would be detrimental to participation. Halfway the event, most participants would not have a chance to win anymore and lose interest. For me it's important to be inclusive which means it's important that everyone has a chance to win up to at least the quarter finals.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Italy Garja
ESOC Maps Team
Donator 02
Posts: 7406
ESO: Garja

21 May 2019, 17:15

I agree consistency would be the key factor and obvisouly the game would become more "serious" and less "let's gamble". I don't agree with the fact that people won't have the chance, since everything is going to be proportionate and ultimately the only thing that matters is the bet size compared to starting stacks. Also again, with double points in last round it's possible to comeback.
Anyway just consider it.
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United States of America Cometk
ESOC Media Team
Posts: 3409
ESO: DJ_Cometk
Location: California

05 Jul 2019, 17:56

bump!

moved from tournament section to AoE3 general for ease of access

@Goodspeed https://escapetv.uk/ first 4 matches are ready to be set up :)
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Netherlands Goodspeed
Retired Contributor
Posts: 7333

09 Jul 2019, 08:38

Fellow specks of dust,

Soon, the betting event continues. At the top of the leaderboards now sits @Thrar, and his position is hardfought. He and @Cometk have been trading blows for a while, taking turns in first place. Now, Thrar seems to have gained the upper hand. Cometk is in 7th place with only 18446 points while Thrar sits on top with 45861. This is partly due to Cometk's incredible altruism; he has donated a total of 23500 points so far this event.

In second is @somppukunkku, who has 2 betting victories under his belt already so he might just be the favorite here despite being 14000 points behind first. Third is @Charlesh, who has been in or near the top 5 pretty much the entire event. One to watch is @bwinner, who is in 4th place but currently has the highest consistency score at 77%, having won 20 out of the 26 bets he made.
And of course, we can never count out betting legend @zoom. Don't let his characteristic consistency score of 15% fool you.

Remember, the rules changed for the LAN. Due to inflation, the limit for bets on specific results (e.g. A 3-0) has been increased to 5000 points. The limit for bets on a player winning is still 10000. There's potential for some record-breaking profits here and even if you only have 5000 points to work with, with solid betting you can absolutely still win.

Bets have been opened for the first 4 matches at the LAN (that's Thursday):
LordRaphael vs tabben
snowww vs Hazza54321
Kaiserklein vs PrinceofKabul
Mitoe vs diarouga


Keep in mind that the group stages of the tournament will be played in a different format than we're used to, meaning that in some cases you will need to be quick to place your bets. I'll try to keep up, but may not always be able to.

Good luck to all and let's see who can claim the title of first AoE3 LAN betting winner!

Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.
XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point

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