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Riotcoke wrote:

[Armag] diarouga wrote:

Riotcoke wrote:Couldn't the team chose shit players on purpose and then have like 2 tier one players with their coins and use them for all their matches, looking at Jack gaming as a good pick here if true.

You don't want to pick shit players as you need to pay at least 500 for them.
I don't know Jackgaming but getting a pr6 who's going to lose 5-0 every game for 500 ducks is not a good plan, it's just a waste of money.
You want to pick the tier4-5 players in the end because they'll only cost 500 ducks once everybody is out of ducks.

Maybe the limit should be lower, as there's a load of players that i doubt will be worth 500, myself included.

The limit is a bit dumb yea.
There's a reason behind it though, the admins don't want each team to have 10 players, when only 5 or 6 are going to play. It can be tricky with the prize pool repartition too, it's already quite unfair tbh.

Could also be valid to buy a player you actually want to trade away, because you know another teams manager values that person highly but might underestimate another player they have or whatever.

Main problem with that kinda is that there is no other currency besides player-skills since ducks are worthless after the auction, otherwise it would be much more possible to gain an advantage out of trading.

scarm wrote:Could also be valid to buy a player you actually want to trade away, because you know another teams manager values that person highly but might underestimate another player they have or whatever.

It doesn't really make sense. If a manager values that person highly, then he'll buy him unless the price is excessive xD.

Maybe only have team members get the cut of a prize if they play, like i don't actually mind about the cash i just like the idea.

Riotcoke wrote:Maybe only have team members get the cut of a prize if they play, like i don't actually mind about the cash i just like the idea.

Well, if you can get players for free (or almost), then the teams are going to take the 60 players ie 15 players/team, and having to tell 2/3 of your team that they're not going to play each time is a lot of pressure for the manager.

[Armag] diarouga wrote:

Riotcoke wrote:Maybe only have team members get the cut of a prize if they play, like i don't actually mind about the cash i just like the idea.

Well, if you can get players for free (or almost), then the teams are going to take the 60 players ie 15 players/team, and having to tell 2/3 of your team that they're not going to play each time is a lot of pressure for the manager.

Well yeah obviously you still have to cut players. But the point i'm making is realistically it's like half the players will be picked, so 32, and having a 500 limit when the max is 8k is a bit silly.

[Armag] diarouga wrote:Hard to say, that's why they're same tier
With otto and Russia not getting nerfed, I'd say probably botto though.

I'm offended. Grudge match incoming

The general idea of the biding should be to try to buy as many estimated wins as possible. So you try to assume which player can get the most wins/ cost in each tier.

Let us say you want to buy Lordraphael as your tier one pick and you know he well probably play vs Kaiser, Mitoe, Turk or Dia... How many wins can he probably get? As it is super tight in the top i would assume somewehere between 10-14. Next step would to compare that to the price you assume a player as Rapha would cost. I would assume something like 4k. However if you already have a tier one player as a champion you can use him in tier 2 where he would probably get you around 14-16 wins. While buying him into tier might not be worth it buying him into tier 2 might seem pretty good. Depending on your plans how to spend the budget. That way you can set your self a goal. How much do i want to spend on a tier 1 win. How much do i want to pay for a tier 2 win...

Alright nerds, I've got a spreadsheet so managers can calculate their win percentages with the players they select. Feel free to copy the spreadsheet and mess around with the ELO ratings.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ShG8LZ7XWZMaaR4qgclJnW-ZMf2lr-XPpRhl0Vh42nk/edit?usp=sharing

Also, some team please pick me up as the analytics guy. I can calculate win probabilities, find favorable matchups between players and civs, and do estimates of players "true elo" ratings. (I'm a statistician by profession.)

charlemango wrote:Alright nerds, I've got a spreadsheet so managers can calculate their win percentages with the players they select. Feel free to copy the spreadsheet and mess around with the ELO ratings.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ShG8LZ7XWZMaaR4qgclJnW-ZMf2lr-XPpRhl0Vh42nk/edit?usp=sharing

Also, some team please pick me up as the analytics guy. I can calculate win probabilities, find favorable matchups between players and civs, and do estimates of players "true elo" ratings. (I'm a statistician by profession.)

Just to change it slightly, use JP elo instead of EP elo, as EP elo is crap.

I've said that many times, but I really don't believe in statistics when it comes to aoe3 haha.

First, it doesn't take into account the players' activity (are they going to play one game a week or 5 hours a day xD?). Same with preparation, and preparation is big, it made the difference between rapha losing 5-0 to _H2O and rapha winning 5-1 against _H2O.
Then, the MUs of course, which are very map dependant, quite random, and change with the meta and the preparation. It's just impossible to predict a result.

Your sheet is great if the managers can come up with their own estimated elo however :)

Riotcoke wrote:

charlemango wrote:Alright nerds, I've got a spreadsheet so managers can calculate their win percentages with the players they select. Feel free to copy the spreadsheet and mess around with the ELO ratings.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ShG8LZ7XWZMaaR4qgclJnW-ZMf2lr-XPpRhl0Vh42nk/edit?usp=sharing

Also, some team please pick me up as the analytics guy. I can calculate win probabilities, find favorable matchups between players and civs, and do estimates of players "true elo" ratings. (I'm a statistician by profession.)

Just to change it slightly, use JP elo instead of EP elo, as EP elo is crap.

Both elo systems are crap, so managers who have a better estimate of a player's "true elo" have an advantage!

It's totally unpredictable. There are only 4 teams, which isn't a big enough sample, and it's also the first event of this kind. So we can't know how people will bet imo

The purpose was more to ask how people should, rather than will bet though. I think Diarouga gave some decent foundation on how to rate players.

Ideally you would not want to buy any player but your substitute player for 500 coins. In an optimal scenario he does not even play for your team. Hence you would spend 500 coin for no wins at all . Obviously thats subideal, however if you have to substitute you would probably want somebody who gets ypu at least 2 wins. So yeah 500 coins for 2 tier 5 wins is expensive but every team has to pay that sum so it is ok to do.

japanesegeneral wrote:Ideally you would not want to buy any player but your substitute player for 500 coins. In an optimal scenario he does not even play for your team. Hence you would spend 500 coin for no wins at all . Obviously thats subideal, however if you have to substitute you would probably want somebody who gets ypu at least 2 wins. So yeah 500 coins for 2 tier 5 wins is expensive but every team has to pay that sum so it is ok to do.

That's an ideal world though, i feel like you need a couple of subs simply due to the fact that it's over 4 weeks and players tend to be busy at random times.

Lecastete wrote:

[Armag] diarouga wrote:Hard to say, that's why they're same tier
With otto and Russia not getting nerfed, I'd say probably botto though.

I'm offended. Grudge match incoming

Vs rouga ? Cuz you can't be gruging me when I said nothing I guess

bwinner wrote:

Lecastete wrote:

[Armag] diarouga wrote:Hard to say, that's why they're same tier
With otto and Russia not getting nerfed, I'd say probably botto though.

I'm offended. Grudge match incoming

Vs rouga ? Cuz you can't be gruging me when I said nothing I guess

Fair point ahah

Update the list with new signups @Diarouga

Currently ranked 2520 (1460 ELO), what are the chances for me to play an important role on a team? @Diarouga

Snuden wrote:Currently ranked 2520 (1460 ELO), what are the chances for me to play an important role on a team? @Diarouga

Not sure this is a serious question.
If it is, then I'm sorry to tell you you have no chance to be selected as a player :(
Only the top 20-25 players will be selected.

A team can invite you to its Discord as a mascot though

@Snuden Team Mandarin Duck Squad is looking for a head chef to cook meals so that players can focus on practicing.

aqwer wrote:Update the list with new signups @Diarouga

Done.

Vinyanyérë wrote:@Snuden Team Mandarin Duck Squad is looking for a head chef to cook meals so that players can focus on practicing.

Must be willing to move to Korea

damn, big daddy sheck is in this bish!