EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

France iNcog
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by iNcog »

Kaiserklein wrote:
iNcog wrote:
Kaiserklein wrote:No offence, I respect wicked's work behind this, but we all know this "model" has to be absolute bullshit. There's too many factors and you can't predict the performance of players in this kind of event. Or well, you can somewhat predict sometimes, but not from mathematical factors anyway.

I wonder what the "model" predicted for my series vs diarouga
I mean he did present all the caveats. I think it's more for fun and banter. :p
Thing is they've been talking about their model for weeks lol, I thought it's pretty serious, if it's banter then sure
oh they have? haha

well then I'm not sure anymore. lol don't listen to me I'm out of the loop too much
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I just hope DE is not going to implement all of the EP changes. Right now it is a big clusterfuck.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by Goodspeed »

somppukunkku wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:
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From your phrasing you seem personally offended that Aiz had a bad draft or something. You claim he "shouldn't be manager" over it, which already is taking this whole thing way too seriously, and when I make a joke about a 200 IQ plan you respond by calling me irrational. Idk, maybe that's just the way you talk, but you come across mad.
If you can't see what was irrational decision about that bid, then you're not a very rational thinker. As simple as that lol.
I've got my vocal writing style doesn't mean I'm MAD that aizamk is buying shit drafts. Just saying maybe he shouldn't be manager as he is not very good at auctions.

However, something that makes me mad is always you going "lol you mad" or steering conversation totally away, like jerom pointed out other thread. I thought you are a good debater but you're one of the worst.
The personal insults really make you seem mad though, to be fair.

I don't know why you interpreted my post about his 200 IQ plan to be serious. I thought it was obviously not. I guess it's hard to read that over the internet, so it's hard to fault you for not reading it, but your responses seem overly aggressive regardless. Hence my "you seem mad" comment.

Anyway, to be clear, I never intended to get into any serious discussions about Aiz's motives for bidding 4k. I didn't even follow the auction and was only going by what people said ITT. I have no opinion on any of it. The 200 IQ thing was a joke.

I recommend going outside for a bit, and putting all this into perspective :chinese:
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by deleted_user0 »

Where do you see a personal insult?
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by Goodspeed »

I'm apparently:
- Irrational
- The worst debater

For making a joke :hmm:
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France chronique
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

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Post by chronique »

Pls guys, be nice...
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by deleted_user0 »

Nice "insults' goodspeed XD
Shows how mad I am.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by Goodspeed »

It just sounded like I hit a nerve. If not, dw about it.
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

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Post by Kaiserklein »

Let's talk more about the model please
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LoOk_tOm wrote:I have something in particular against Kaisar (GERMANY NOOB mercenary LAMME FOREVER) And the other people (noobs) like suck kaiser ... just this ..
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Kiribati princeofcarthage
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by princeofcarthage »

Model actually predicted NWC to be in spot 3. Yes, please lets talk about model more and its potential implications in playoffs.
Fine line to something great is a strange change.
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Great Britain Riotcoke
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by Riotcoke »

The model doesn't account for me being the most efficent buy at 500 if I beat jack 5-0
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by RefluxSemantic »

Maybe we should talk about the fact that MDS has a far stronger team now that Perez can play too. I'm pretty sure the model predicts a full strength MDS to be the best team.
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

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Post by WickedCossack »

It was to predict the drafted players values in order to use for the auction, in other words doesn't count Kaiser & Mitoe.

As Jerom says if I didn't manually knock ~1K off Perez they have a very comparable score to NWC at the top which mirrors the results of drafted players. CMC without Kaiser are below both those.

I know people love to hate on it but overall I think it was surpringly accuarate.
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France [Armag] diarouga
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

NWC has the best drafted team still.
CMC won thanks to kaiser (and model doesn't predict the champions), and MDS won thanks to Perez (not predicted by the model).
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by deleted_user »

GIGO
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Post by Guigs »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:NWC has the best drafted team still.
CMC won thanks to kaiser (and model doesn't predict the champions), and MDS won thanks to Perez (not predicted by the model).
Cry us a river
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

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Post by n0el »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:NWC has the best drafted team still.
CMC won thanks to kaiser (and model doesn't predict the champions), and MDS won thanks to Perez (not predicted by the model).
Except we beat you and would have made the playoffs if not for unexpected real life circumstances.
mad cuz bad
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

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Post by kaister »

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Great Britain WickedCossack
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by WickedCossack »

n0el wrote:
[Armag] diarouga wrote:NWC has the best drafted team still.
CMC won thanks to kaiser (and model doesn't predict the champions), and MDS won thanks to Perez (not predicted by the model).
Except we beat you and would have made the playoffs if not for unexpected real life circumstances.
Yea your team did well, very impressive series by conq inparticular.

I would say the idea is that the model is supposed to work over a large average of games. In RTS games some days players are going to play bad or good, and sometimes just unclucky or lucky. I did note a lot of comments after some 0-5/1-4 losses of people saying well that indiviudal loss is evidence the model is wrong but I think that is maybe missing the bigger picture of how a random effects model would operate.

Over the average of the 5 weeks the end result of the drafted players was as close as I could expect considering the resources put into it.
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

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Post by deleted_user »

Looking forward to the model in EPL 3!
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Tuvalu gibson
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by gibson »

I just cant see a model being very accurate given that 1) there's not much objective data that can be put into it unlike real sports and 2) theres not very many games played in a 5 week season so theres a lot of room for deviation
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by princeofcarthage »

I think you will never actually be able to predict exact individual score without bit of luck anyways. A more accurate representation would be series win regardless of whether its 3-2, 4-1 or 5-0. If you look at my predictions though individual score is very low ~35% I think, if you factor series win it goes pretty high ~80%
Fine line to something great is a strange change.
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by deleted_user »

Yeah but series win doesn't really mean shit as the differences between 3-2, 4-1 and 5-0 are huge
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by princeofcarthage »

Do you even read? I am not boasting about myself or anything. I am saying any model based on relevant science and math can accurately predict a series fairly accurately. Ofc if you ask it to predict exact num of goals it's near impossible simply due to innumerable random (human) factors/variables.
Fine line to something great is a strange change.
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Re: EPL Season 2 Biggest Steals and Overpayments!

Post by deleted_user »

Sorry mate, wasn't a personal dig. It just seems worthless to only predict who wins the series.

Idk, predictions are dumb anyways.

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