diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

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diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

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Post by BrookG »

Welcome everyone to diarouga’s and beef’s UNBIASED predictions

Disclaimer: The redaction did not use the magic NWC model to predict these results. I don’t want to predict each series accurately and ruin the fun for the viewers!

Standings after week 3:

Image

Cuirassier Management Co. (16) vs the Nilla Ninjas (9)

CMC and NN are currently close in the ranking, with a mere 1 win difference. However, CMC is only fourth for one simple reason: they got the hardest bracket so far. They lost week 1 to the #1 team, and then won quite convincingly against the #2 and #3 teams. Now, they will face the two worst teams, and they might well make it to the play-offs if they can perform well.

NN, on the other hand, won against MDS without PĂ©rez on week 1, then lost the #1 team, and got the opportunity to farm SKG on week 3. With arguably the second worst line-up in EPL, I think NN will lose this week quite hard, although, I might be overestimating CMC’s performance with these results.


Kaiserklein (4) vs iamturk (1) | After defeating Mitoe with a convincing 4-1, it is quite clear that kaiserclown cannot be stopped at this point, especially by a rusty turk who has been underperforming in the previous weeks. Don’t underestimate the turk though, he still has the best mechanics, and his playstyle usually works well against kaiser.

OPTIMUS__PRIME (1) vs KnuschelbĂ€r (4) | Did you really think that I was not going to predict opti games? OPTI is probably the most inconsistent players in this EPL, but knusch on the other hand, is one of the most consistent players. I expect knusch’s solid style to defeat OPTI’s craziness, although it is likely he will drop a game.

Lecastete (4) vs Forjustice (1) | It is also very hard to predict the result of this series because both are extremely inconsistent, due to Forjustice’s style and Castete’s tilt. Lecastete will surely struggle against Forjustice’s anti meta style, but he is the better player, and I think he will eventually win.

KEVINITALIEN (4) vs GiveUAnxiety (1) | GUA is a talented player but he is also the most overrated player in all of ESOC. His only good performance this EPL was beating wookl 4-1 in week 1. After that, he lost 4-1 against both Ownage and Flontier. Kevin is a scarier opponent than Flontier, which is why he will win this series rather easily. Still, I expect GUA to win one brit game.

bwinner (3) vs hatamoto_samurai (2) | bwinner finally managed to win a series this season, and with 4 points to 1, and he won two games with legit civs LOL. If that isn’t enough proof that bwinner is viable, I don’t know what is. I think bwinner won’t play shit this week, but harcha is the better player. I expect bwinner to win the two otto games, and lose 2-1 at aoe3, i.e. win 3-2.



Hudson Bay BIGs (13) vs Mandarin Duck Squad (12)

I look forward to seeing the results of this match. BIGs and MDS are very close in skill, and in fact, BIGs is only 1 point ahead in the rankings.
Interestingly, both teams got the exact same results against CMC and SKG.
The pairings are also very even, and I expect most series to end with a 3-2 score.
BIGs managed to beat NWC last week, the #1 team that looked unstoppable until now, while MDS lost to NN, arguably the second worst team, so I’d give a slight edge to BIGs.


Samwise12 (2) vs KINGofOsmane (3) | After a 2-3 defeat against the best non champion player on week 1, Osmane crushed all the competition in weeks 2 and 3. Samwise on the other hand, managed to win 4-1 against both Somppu and Castete in weeks 1 and 2. I think this will be one of the closest and most interesting series of week 4, and the result will depend on how well Sam can adapt to Osmane’s civs.
Knowing Sam, I don’t think he will adapt well to Otto (I don’t know if that’s even possible actually), and I expect Osmane to come ahead.

Lukas_L99 (2) vs Mitoe (3) | Another hard match up to predict ! This week is definitely going to be very interesting. Lukas and Mitoe have very similar playstyles, but Lukas has been underperforming this EPL, losing 1-4 to Soldier on week 3. I expect Mitoe, the more experienced player to win, but honestly all five results are possible between these two.

Conquerer999 (3) vs Jerimuno (2) | After his crushing 5-0 victory against Ownage last week, and his 3-2 victory against Indiabot on week 1, Conquerer looks very scary. One should not underestimate Jeri however, he went 4-1 against Forjustice on week 1, and barely lost to Castete last week. Conquerer is the favourite to win, in my opinion, but there is almost no skill difference between these two.

theonlybaus (4) vs minimoult21 (1) | minimoult is decent, and he proved that with his win against Flontier on week 2, but theonlybaus is just not a slot 4 player. This guy stomped Flontier on week 1, and had very close series against Ezad and KEVIN, who are pr35.
After minimoult’s defeat against bwinner, I have to give the advantage to baus.

Oliveza (2) vs PĂ©rez (3) | This one is impossible to predict. Oliveza’s performance depends so much on the maps and on the MUs, and we don’t know how rusty PĂ©rez is at this moment. I’ll go for a 3-2, but this prediction is as accurate as a coinflip.

signed by @[Armag] diarouga



Somali Kabuli Gaming (3) vs New World Challengers (22)

SKG, the EPL1 runners-up were expected to show strong performances this season with champ back in the side and formidable line up than before. However, since week 1 it was clear that they were not up for it. India being nerfed into ground meant that their 2 players were further at disadvantage. All of it has culminated into a forgetful season for the Somali’s, one they want to get over with as quickly as possible. With champ and top player both being out of the playing 5 for the rest of season, and play-offs a distant dream they have finally decided to bring legendary Victor_swe in hopes to save what they can!

New World Challengers based on the biggest Lan event in history of Aoe III (by same name) had a solid 3 weeks so far. Currently on top of the table and favorites to go into play-off they will be looking to take full advantage of disarrayed SKG and all but seal their play-off spot. That’s not to say they had no ups and downs, but strong performances all around meant they almost always pulled themselves up. Challengers go into week 4 strong on confidence, morale, and lead by a good leader who himself has been led by the revolutionary “The Model”.

I fully expect NWC to roll over SKG this week with a score of (3) - (22). Let’s take a look at how players are expected to perform on individual levels.

India_Bot19999 (1) - diarouga (4) | India Bot aka miggo, SKG’s 2nd biggest purchase has so far delivered close but consistent results. However, he faces his toughest opponent so far, champ of NWC diarouga. He is further disadvantaged as his main civ India is currently unviable. Based on solid performances I expect him to take 1 game of diarouga. After facing a humiliating white wash in week 1, champ made up for it with 4-1 comebacks in the following weeks. Strong on confidence, mechanics, known for his well preparedness and particularly strong Aztecs, Otto, and Iro I would expect diarouga to breeze through this week. While a 5-0 redemption wouldn’t be out of his league and don’t be surprised if it happens I would settle for a more practical 4-1 in his favor.

The_LastSamurai (1) vs SoldieR (4) | TLS is a strong player with vast amounts of experience. He was brought in as a replacement champ in week 2. So far his performances are unimpressive. I believe that is partly due to lack of preparedness and practice. I don’t see him practicing much and SoldieR is no cakewalk. I expect him to take 1 game probably with brits. With 10-5 score SoldieR is currently the best amongst NWC. He is another player with vast amounts of experience and nearly 1800 1v1’s on EP show that. Coming on backs for 3 strong weeks, continuous practice, strong team guidance, I fully expect SoldieR to post another strong week with 4-1 breeze.

Kaister (1) vs King_Ownage2nd (4) | From Russia to Ports to Otto to whole series of natives, Kaister has proved his versatility. Benched for week 2 he has an average season so far with 5-5. What he faces now is a mountain of tasks as he is squared off against Treaty Titan King_Ownage2nd. While he has his tricks up his sleeves, are they enough to overcome this mountain? I expect not, though he should get a consolation game. King had a solid start to season with 4-1 in week 1 and 2. Week 3 came with a harsh reality of white wash from his treaty nemesis Conquerer999. That doesn’t mean he played bad or he is in bad shape or form. His opponent came prepared and completely caught the king off-guard. Partly King’s playstyle is to be blamed as well as his adaptation to EP changes has not been upto the mark. That being said he is still a solid player and expect him to continue his week 1 and week 2 form with a resounding 4-1, again.

Victor_swe (0) vs Ezad (5) | Finally big guns are coming out. SKG’s own li'l bombard (not so little) is out in the field. It's hard to predict how many strelets are going to be blown into oblivion, however what we can predict is a field of dead animals and exactly 3 barracks with 700 food to speed up the production. Second best player so far for NWC, Ezad faces his toughest competition in the EPL2 so far. Can he survive this? Or will he be scattered amongst the field of dead deers?

SWF_DarkSultan (0) vs Stanley_Winston (5) | The latest tiger of the Somali’s. Very little is known about this new entrant. That makes him mysterious and dangerous. I once had the honor of casting a game with him, I know he has strong game knowledge but how that translates we will soon see. Founding father of ESOC, Stanley_Winston once said “You all wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for me”. True enough, NWC wouldn’t be here if he hadn’t spectacularly smashed through Cuirassier in week 1. Now he is back to make sure they reach play-offs with another hack n smash in week 4.

signed by @princeofcarthage
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

22-3 wtf
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by BrookG »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:22-3 wtf
ye that's a big exaggeration indeed
Correlation doesn't mean causation.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by RefluxSemantic »

idk, only the Soldier - TLS prediction seemed really exaggerated to me. I can see all other results happening. but it'll probably be something like 18-7
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by deleted_user »

Hmmm
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

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Post by deleted_user »

I was making predictions, then Bramboy told me to post on Saturday at the earliest, then other predictions make the news on Saturday at 3 am. Crooked admins??
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by Challenger_Marco »

King trg
:nwc:
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

RefluxSemantic wrote:idk, only the Soldier - TLS prediction seemed really exaggerated to me. I can see all other results happening. but it'll probably be something like 18-7
These results are possible for sure, but I think they're optimistic, and it's unlikely that 5 series get the most optimistic results.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by Jerimuno »

post them anyway @deleted_user4
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by princeofcarthage »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:22-3 wtf
I am curious to know what you expect.
RefluxSemantic wrote:idk, only the Soldier - TLS prediction seemed really exaggerated to me. I can see all other results happening. but it'll probably be something like 18-7
I agree, initially I was looking at 3-2 in TLS favor, but then I remembered he was sloppy last week(s), he hasn't been practicing as much as SoldieR. SolR has diarouga at his side whom I believe to be great at preparation (tactician) i.e if he makes use of it.
Fine line to something great is a strange change.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by RefluxSemantic »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:
RefluxSemantic wrote:idk, only the Soldier - TLS prediction seemed really exaggerated to me. I can see all other results happening. but it'll probably be something like 18-7
These results are possible for sure, but I think they're optimistic, and it's unlikely that 5 series get the most optimistic results.
Well, there is a pretty large skill disparity between victor_swe/dark sultan and ezad/stanley, so those 5-0's could clearly happen, with 4-1 maybe being a possibility but I honestly think that might be less likely. These two matches might go like 9-1 combined. You doing 4-1 vs miggo seems completely reasonable too. Maybe King_ownage winning 4-1 is a bit optimistic, but I think I'd be torn between 3-2 and 4-1. Soldier vs TLS is the only one I'd definitely disagree with, that one is maybe a 3-2 for TLS to me. I think something like 18-7 is actually a pretty likely result, or maybe 19-6. Soldier upsetting TLS definitely is possible though, I can imagine SKG not being too motivated either and on a good day Soldier can win that one anyways. In that scenario we're looking at NWC winning 20+ games.

This stuff kinda goes to show how shitty this situation is for EPL :(
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

I think you underestimate victor, he's actually decent, but 18-7 or 19-6 sound more realistic imo.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

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Post by deleted_user »

MDS-F (25) vs BIGs (0)

Mitoe (5) vs Lukas (0)

Mitoe is going to win 5-0

KingofOsmane (5) vs Samwise12 (0)

Osmane is going to win 5-0


Jerimuno (5) vs Conqueror999 (0)

Jerimuno is going to win 5-0

Minimoult21 (5) vs theonlybaus (0)

Minimout21 is going to win 5-0

Perez (5) vs Oliveza (0)

Perez is going to win 5-0



CMC vs NN


Kaiserklein (3) vs iamturk (2)

Kaiserklein is going to win 3-2


OptimusPrime vs Knuschelbar

Optimus is going to play


Lecastete (4) vs ForJustice (1)

:ecastete is going go win 4-1


KevinItalien (2) vs GiveUAnxiety (3)

Kevin is going to lose 2-3

Bwinner (2) vs hatamotosamurai (3)

Bwinner is going to lose 2-3



NWC (19) vs SKG (6)


Diarouga (4) vs indiabot (1)

Diarouga is going to win 4-1


IamSoldier (2) vs TheLast_Samurai (3)

IamSoldier is going to lose 2-3


Kingownage2nd (4) vs kaister (1)

Kingownage2nd is going to win 4-1


Ezad (4) vs Victor_swe (1)

Ezad is going to win 4-1


Stanleywinston (5) vs DarkSultan (0)

Stanleywinston is going to win 5-0
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

deleted_user wrote:MDS-F (25) vs BIGs (0)

Mitoe (5) vs Lukas (0)

Mitoe is going to win 5-0

KingofOsmane (5) vs Samwise12 (0)

Osmane is going to win 5-0


Jerimuno (5) vs Conqueror999 (0)

Jerimuno is going to win 5-0

Minimoult21 (5) vs theonlybaus (0)

Minimout21 is going to win 5-0

Perez (5) vs Oliveza (0)

Perez is going to win 5-0



CMC vs NN


Kaiserklein (3) vs iamturk (2)

Kaiserklein is going to win 3-2


OptimusPrime vs Knuschelbar

Optimus is going to play


Lecastete (4) vs ForJustice (1)

:ecastete is going go win 4-1


KevinItalien (2) vs GiveUAnxiety (3)

Kevin is going to lose 2-3

Bwinner (2) vs hatamotosamurai (3)

Bwinner is going to lose 2-3



NWC (19) vs SKG (6)


Diarouga (4) vs indiabot (1)

Diarouga is going to win 4-1


IamSoldier (2) vs TheLast_Samurai (3)

IamSoldier is going to lose 2-3


Kingownage2nd (4) vs kaister (1)

Kingownage2nd is going to win 4-1


Ezad (4) vs Victor_swe (1)

Ezad is going to win 4-1


Stanleywinston (5) vs DarkSultan (0)

Stanleywinston is going to win 5-0
diarouga not Diarouga, and nice predictions.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by RefluxSemantic »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:
deleted_user wrote: Diarouga (4) vs indiabot (1)

Diarouga is going to win 4-1
diarouga not Diarouga, and nice predictions.
Diarouga, at the start of a sentence a word should always be capitalized.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by deleted_user »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:
deleted_user wrote:MDS-F (25) vs BIGs (0)

Mitoe (5) vs Lukas (0)

Mitoe is going to win 5-0

KingofOsmane (5) vs Samwise12 (0)

Osmane is going to win 5-0


Jerimuno (5) vs Conqueror999 (0)

Jerimuno is going to win 5-0

Minimoult21 (5) vs theonlybaus (0)

Minimout21 is going to win 5-0

Perez (5) vs Oliveza (0)

Perez is going to win 5-0



CMC vs NN


Kaiserklein (3) vs iamturk (2)

Kaiserklein is going to win 3-2


OptimusPrime vs Knuschelbar

Optimus is going to play


Lecastete (4) vs ForJustice (1)

:ecastete is going go win 4-1


KevinItalien (2) vs GiveUAnxiety (3)

Kevin is going to lose 2-3

Bwinner (2) vs hatamotosamurai (3)

Bwinner is going to lose 2-3



NWC (19) vs SKG (6)


Diarouga (4) vs indiabot (1)

Diarouga is going to win 4-1


IamSoldier (2) vs TheLast_Samurai (3)

IamSoldier is going to lose 2-3


Kingownage2nd (4) vs kaister (1)

Kingownage2nd is going to win 4-1


Ezad (4) vs Victor_swe (1)

Ezad is going to win 4-1


Stanleywinston (5) vs DarkSultan (0)

Stanleywinston is going to win 5-0
diarouga not Diarouga, and nice predictions.
you gotta blame google docs for auto capitalization and my utter indifference to change anything in light of these crooked actions
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by RefluxSemantic »

Auto-capitalization did a good job. Diarouga's name needs to obey the grammatical rules.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by charlemango »

So this league is solely about who can milk SKG the hardest? Seems lame.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by harcha »

BrookG wrote:I think bwinner won’t play shit this week, but harcha is the better player.
I find it funny when people say that, i feel like my major rank is quite deserved.
Untitled.png
POC wrote:Also I most likely know a whole lot more than you.
POC wrote:Also as an objective third party, and near 100% accuracy of giving correct information, I would say my opinions are more reliable than yours.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

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Post by Lukas_L99 »

Yeah kinda sucks for the teams who played SKG already, but oh well
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

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Post by charlemango »

Real talk, suggestions for league @admins:
  • 1. Teams should be forced to rest their champion against SKG. Nobody knew that Hazza and Somppu were gonna ragequit. This would give SKG more of a chance and make it more fair to teams that already played SKG.
    2. Playoffs should be top 4 teams in knockout, rather than top 2. Ranking are essentially random at this point since SKG gifting points out the ass. You could be the 2nd best team and be in 4th place just cause of scheduling.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by sebnan12 »

[Armag] diarouga wrote:I think you underestimate victor, he's actually decent, but 18-7 or 19-6 sound more realistic imo.
i rlly dont think theyre underestimating victor. hes just simply much worse than ezad atm. anything but 5-0 would be ezad trolling too hard
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by Le Hussard sur le toit »

charlemango wrote:So this league is solely about who can milk SKG the hardest? Seems lame.
The top 10 did not play SKG yet though.
ESOC : came for the game, stayed for the drama.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by Imperial Noob »

charlemango wrote:So this league is solely about who can milk SKG the hardest? Seems lame.
compare:
ListlessSalmon wrote: Personally the least preferable outcomes to me would be either SKG winning each of their 3 series, but being eliminated anyway due to not crushing the Ducks as hard as the other two teams, or SKG advancing and CMC going 6-4 in their remaining games vs NN, and thus defeating NN 13-12, but being eliminated in favour of NN anyway, due to NN beating the Ducks harder. This tournament in general seems to have been a great success so far, but the noncompetitive nature of NA seems to me to have been the only real negative.
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Re: diarouga and beef predict EPL Week 4

Post by [Armag] diarouga »

EPL1 was about who could milk MDS the hardest yea.

Non competitive teams ruin the competition.

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