diarouga predicts EPL Week 5

[[Armag] diarouga]

Here comes the 5th, and final week, that will decide the two teams which will go to the playoffs. With the current standing, we can say that realistically CMC is almost guaranteed to go to the playoffs. Assuming Castete wins 3-2 against FJ (which is actually a pessimistic prediction), currently CMC has 56 points, and they will probably get at least 16 points next week (again a very pessimistic prediction considering the pairing). That’s what they need to beat either NWC or MDS, regardless of the result between the two teams.

The most important match this week will be NWC against MDS, as it will determine the other team to make it to the playoffs. Considering MDS wins the tie-breaker, MDS needs to win 15-10 to qualify; this result isn’t impossible.

As for the other ranks, SKG will be #6 after getting farmed by CMC (big news), NN will be #5 because it is unlikely they can beat BIGs 16-9, and BIGs will be #4.

Cuirassier Management Co. (20) vs Somali Kabuli Gaming (5)

The SKG line up has been getting worse since the start of the EPL, and this week is no exception, as their line up is worse than ever. I don’t even know how the admins allowed it lol. CMC is probably going to break the EPL farming record (18-7, NN vs MDS in EPL 1).

Kaiserklein (5) vs The_LastSamurai (0) | Kaiserklein only dropped 2 games this EPL, and that was against Mitoe and turk playing into his weakness (China and Japan). TLS has good mechanics for sure, but his 1v1 knowledge is not the best. Furthermore, he is a very standard player, who cannot play China and Japan at the Mitoe/turk level. Thus, I don’t expect him to take a game.

Lecastete (2) vs India_Bot1999 (3) | Castete’s run hasn’t been impressive this EPL so far, while miggo managed to go 2-3 against both diarouga and turk. Still, miggo is not a consistent player, so I don’t expect him to win more than 3 games. On a bad day, he might even lose to Castete.

KEVINITALIEN (4) vs HawK_GirL (1) | I don’t know HawK_Girl very well, but there is a 5 pr difference between these two players. HawK_Girl shouldn’t win more than one game, but Kevin is inconsistent and fucks up sometimes, so it won’t be a surprise if he drops one game.

OPTIMUS__PRIME (4) vs kaister (1) | It’s very hard to predict Opti’s games, but after his 3-2 win against Knusch last week, I think he will beat kaister rather easily. Opti, being opti, he could easily drop more games, or even lose the series, but that’s unlikely.

Riotcoke (5) vs JackGaming (0) | JackGaming is pr10…

CMC would probably qualify, even with bwinner against Flontier, but I don’t know why the admins allowed that match-up.


Hudson Bay BIGs (14) vs the Nilla Ninjas (11)

BIGs would need to milk NN hard to go to the play off (at least 20-5), but they can try to secure the third place. For that, they require 16 or 17 points and hope MDS fucks up against NWC, which unlikely, however, not impossible.
On the other hand, Ninjas would need a 16-9 win to get the fourth place (assuming FJ takes at least one game against Castete), which is quite unlikely…

All in all, this match probably won’t impact the outcome on EPL2, unfortunately.

Samwise12 (2) vs Knuschelbär (3) | Knusch is a very strong player, probably even a top 5 EPL2 player in theory, until this week. He managed to get some insane results: his 5-0 win against TLS was impressive, and was able to defeat both Soldier and Osmane, who are top tier players. His series against Opti ruined his win streak, and that might cause him tilt. Still, he is the favourite against Sam, and I think he could even 4-1 on a good day.

Lukas_L99 (2) vs iamturk (3) | This match-up is very hard to predict, and I expect their series to be very close. Both Lukas and iamturk have what it takes to be top 5, but they both had a rather bad performance this EPL (probably because they’re inactive). Still, peak iamturk was better than peak Lukas, and I would say that turk got slightly better results in EPL2, so I would give the edge to turk.

Conquerer999 (4) vs Forjustice (1) | Conquerer dominated slot 3 in the first four weeks, carrying the poor results of his team mates. Also, he showed that he could adapt to many different playstyles, and beat the TAD civs. Thus, I think he can win 4-1 against the inactive Forjustice.

theonlybaus (4) vs Dennis234 (1) | It’s the first time Dennis plays in this EPL, and it’s the first time I see him play in a tournament. I might underestimate him for this reason, but he’s "only" pr29 and he doesn’t have a lot of tournament experience. I’m not sure why NN decided to put him instead of GUA. Maybe they bargained no GUA for no Oliveza? That would make sense I guess.


empireboss (2) vs hatamoto_samurai (3) | hatamoto_samurai is a solid 2300 elo player, so he must be the favourite against empireboss. Now whether they get 3-2 or 4-1 is the big question. I will go for 3-2 because I expect harcha to struggle against Russia.

[Le Hussard sur le toit]

No prediction for NWC vs MDS ?

[Zutazuta]

Some BIG mistakes in these predictions!

[Riotcoke]

Underrating Jack massively.

[Zutazuta]

Underrating Jack massively.

Riot making excuses already for his losses against the "PR10"?

[Riotcoke]

Underrating Jack massively.

Riot making excuses already for his losses against the "PR10"?

Gotta keep the Victor_swe spirit alive.

[princeofcarthage]

No prediction for NWC vs MDS ?

Well diarouga.. NWC...

[Le Hussard sur le toit]

No prediction for NWC vs MDS ?

Well diarouga.. NWC...

Oh ! You mean that diarouga plays for NWC ? What a surprise. I'd never have guessed.
No, joke aside I - as a spectator and someone not involved - would be very much interested in his own assessment of his and his teammates performances and strengths.

[princeofcarthage]

No prediction for NWC vs MDS ?

Well diarouga.. NWC...

Oh ! You mean that diarouga plays for NWC ? What a surprise. I'd never have guessed.
No, joke aside I - as a spectator and someone not involved - would be very much interested in his own assessment of his and his teammates performances and strengths.

Its interesting I agree, he said in the EPL discord, tldr: he thinks all the matchups are close and could go anyway, so probably expect a close 12-13, 11-14 kind of result

[TheNameDaniel]

Where are BEEF's predictions?

[TheNameDaniel]

Where are Collon's predictions?

[princeofcarthage]

Where are BEEF's predictions?

You will have to wait a few more hours for the #King TRG predictions! TRG may delay but will never disappoint his fans!

[Victor_swe]

Underrating Jack massively.

Riot making excuses already for his losses against the "PR10"?

Gotta keep the Victor_swe spirit alive.

Jack with some swemagic.
Riot doesnt stand a chance

[bwinner]

No prediction for NWC vs MDS ?

Well diarouga.. NWC...

Oh ! You mean that diarouga plays for NWC ? What a surprise. I'd never have guessed.
No, joke aside I - as a spectator and someone not involved - would be very much interested in his own assessment of his and his teammates performances and strengths.

Thing is if you predict your teammate to lose in public, that could creat tensions into your team and if you predict everyone to win in your team, 1st that's biaised and doesn't make sens and 2nd other people will say you are narcissic, so in any case I understand you don't want to make public predictions for your team.

[Vinyanyérë]

I've instructed everyone on MDS to win their matches exactly 3-2 for maximum memery.

[dicktator_]

I've instructed everyone on MDS to win their matches exactly 3-2 for maximum memery.

That would allow us to squeeze into the playoffs with a 20-5 result, so go for it

[Vinyanyérë]

MDS 15-10 NWC from five 3-2s and BIGs 20-5 is the 2nd best possible timeline, losing out only to an SKG playoff spot.

[Imperial Noob]

If MDS crushed NWC, the BIGs and NNs both visibly cheated in all their matches, and SKG went 25-0 against CMC and then defeated MDS in play-offs, now that would be a meme material...

[Squamiger]

Riotcoke (5) vs JackGaming (0) | JackGaming is pr10…

?? how did he get drafted and i didnt?

[Challenger_Marco]

Riotcoke (5) vs JackGaming (0) | JackGaming is pr10…

?? how did he get drafted and i didnt?

Because he is a legend.

[princeofcarthage]

With JackGaming in team and with sweswemagic SKG 25-0 is a likely result , tell me I am wrong.