European politics

[Goodspeed]

If Putin can't be stopped even by the whole western society

Russia has a smaller economy than France. Don't believe for a single second that it can't be stopped "by the whole western society".

Why, with access to the internet, would you be consuming Chinese media about geopolitical matters? They're obviously not trustworthy

[fei123456]

Why, with access to the internet, would you be consuming Chinese media about geopolitical matters? They're obviously not trustworthy

Actually I know that most of them are fake, but I've not heard of many inspiring thing from Ukraine either recently. A dollar used to trade 150+ rub months ago, but it's only 1:60 nowadays.

[harcha]

IDK what that 12,000 number is referring to, I haven't heard anything like it.
Zelensky is willingly holding the political line himself, he sees that Ukraine can win in the long term therefore he doesn't want to give any piece of Ukrainian land up as long as he doesn't have to. The morale in Ukrainian forces is certainly much better than that in Russian forces.
The arrival of weapons will help somewhat, but since there is no end in near sight, the war will probably end in attrition. Short-mid term Russia can keep on sending in more and more units and wear Ukraine down, but in the long term Russia will run out of resources and manpower. Meanwhile Ukraine has to keep making sure that help comes in from the West at a steady flow - be it resources for civilians, equipment and training for military.
Russia is not reconstructing anything, the captured lands are doomed. Russia doesn't have money to reconstruct anything. Even if they had the money, the money would fill someone's pockets instead.
Sanctions work, but they don't have an immediate effect. That is why this will probably go long-term.
Putin in not supported by 80%, that is a made-up number. It is not clear to anyone what is the actual public support stats, because people cannot speak their mind, they can't speak freely in Russia. And the population is being zombified for decade+ with propaganda.
Russian economy is trying their best to adapt and find new trade partners (the East), but those new trade partners are obviously going to exploit the opportunity to get better rates for resources.
There is no surrender in sight. Obviously the old powers that are more distant (France/Germany) would like for this war to subside, so that they can avoid economic downfall, but so far they haven't managed to stop anything. NATO and Eastern Europe is uplifting Ukraine.
"evil Biden" lol

[Dolan]

I've seen so many bad news from our media recently. They said over 12,000 elite Ukraine troops were surrounded in Donbas and they're doomed. Zelensky is forced by the western to hold the line, and sending the veterans for suicide defense. The arrival of heavy weapons doesn't really help, and Russia is already reconstructing the grabbed lands. Sanctions doesn't work at all, Putin is supported by 80%+ people, Russian economy is getting way better by selling gas, and the western is about to surrender in winter due to the lack of oil and gas. French and German is about to "awaken", stand away from evil Biden and ready to sacrifice Ukraine. The western is about to tear apart, and a new order is about to raise.

I know many of them are fake news, but I'm still anxious about them. Is Ukraine able to hold their territory, without losing too many veteran troops? Do they stand a chance to take the territory back in the future? If Putin can't be stopped even by the whole western society, I'm afraid that an era of chaos and darkness is coming.

Here they're spinning the exactly opposite narrative:
- Ukraine has pushed the Russians out of Kharkiv
- Putin is dying of multiple illnesses and a coup is about to take place in Moscow
- Russian troops' morale is very low and many are close to deserting
- Russia will not be able to replenish military gear fast enough after sustaining heavy losses so far (drones, munitions, tanks, armoured vehicles)
- international orgs are pleading with Russia to allow Ukrainian ships to continue exporting grains to avoid a food crisis in Africa and the Middle East
- Putin's inner circle and the secret services are already preparing for life after Putin, scrambling to get their money out of Russia or to buy foreign currency
- Russian media are starting to openly admit the war could be getting worse as Ukraine is starting to get NATO weapons and that having a coalition of 40+ developed states against Russia is not a normal situation
- they're also admitting that China and India's support for Russia is not unconditional and it might not go very far, so Russia is mostly isolated, when it comes to relations with developed or significant countries

Etc.

[harcha]

The Russian Ruble rate is artificial, because Russia is not allowing holders to sell rubles. The currency is essentially frozen and being supported by everything that Russian economy has. I think Dolan had a post about this some weeks ago.

Anecdotal report about the ruble:

[Dolan]

Yeah they basically banned any new purchase of foreign currency and Russians that already had euros/dollars in their accounts can't withdraw more than 10.000 in the next 6 months.
It's called capital controls and it's usually a desperate measure to avoid a run on banks. But it also has the benefit of propping up the ruble artificially.

[Dolan]

There are also blogs or media here that talk about banks secretely preparing for possible massive civil unrest if inflation drives up living costs so much that people revolt.
They claim food and basic goods prices could skyrocket so much that even the middle class couldn't afford them all, which will lead to mass protests in the US, UK, Europe.

https://bylinetimes.com/2022/05/17/global-banks-privately-prepare-for-dangerous-levels-of-imminent-civil-unrest-in-western-homelands/

[fei123456]

Our media is saying
-Ukraine take back Kyiv and Kharkov just because Russian doesn't want them anymore. They didn't destroy many Russian troops on their retreat, so it's quite acceptable for Russia.
-The defending in Donbas is suicide. Ukraine troops are ready to surrender, especially after the fallen of Mariupol after 3 months.
-Russian eco is getting better and better, and Putin is planning to hold the war for years, destroying western economy permanently.
-The western is grabbing grains from Ukraine, to put millions of Ukraine people in starve, just as what Stalin did.
-Poland is about to invade Ukraine for territory.
-Even if Russian lost soldiers and weapons, the war is on Ukraine land. Millions are escaping, the richest lands are lost, and Ukraine has no future: so Putin still wins.
-Merkel is right, but the brain-washed Germans don't deserve a wise political like her.

Actually it's fun to read those things, if I know they're not true.

[princeofcarthage]

Russia is only losing as along as Putin allows. If he decides to go nuclear the worst/best(depending on your alignment) case scenario is a draw or stalemate.

[duckzilla]

Is Ukraine able to hold their territory, without losing too many veteran troops? Do they stand a chance to take the territory back in the future?

In short: yes to both. Russia is still not advancing very fast. It lost a lot of ground in the North and North-East. Now they push hard to get as far as possible before the most advanced western weapon systems (things like Gepard and Panzerhaubitze 2000) become operationable. But that window of opportnity is closing fast. That's why their propaganda channels are working at full capacity. The general rule is: the worse the situation for Russia is, the more news you will read on immediate Russian victory.

My interpretation is that Russia tries to raise its bargaining power by conquering ground (wasting a lot of manpower!) and then, when western weapon systems arrived in significant quantities, begins to negotiate. Usually, military experts expect that you something around three times the manpower than you enemy if you want to successfully gain ground in trench warfare (which we have in Ukraine). Hence, the Russians know that Ukraine will struggle to take back any territory that can be conquered by Russia in the coming days. And if Ukraine struggles to take back territory, the Russian bargaining power rises.

[duckzilla]

Actually it's fun to read those things, if I know they're not true.

The best propaganda is a propaganda that doesn't always lie but simply mixes truth and lie until you can no longer differentiate between the two. And that is happening here. Some of the things you mention are right or partially right. But most are not.

Our media is saying
-Ukraine take back Kyiv and Kharkov just because Russian doesn't want them anymore. They didn't destroy many Russian troops on their retreat, so it's quite acceptable for Russia.

This is arguably true. But Russia "doesn't want them anymore" because Russia realized that it is not capable of taking the two cities. Russia lost a lot of men and material on the outskirts of Kyiv. So this is the part where the statement becomes wrong.

Our media is saying-The defending in Donbas is suicide. Ukraine troops are ready to surrender, especially after the fallen of Mariupol after 3 months.

Defending is always the favorable position compared to attacking. Especially in Donbass, Ukrainian troops had 8 years to dig themselves in. So no, defending Donbas is less suicide than attacking Donbas. Of course Russia hopes that Ukrainian morale is low, but, from what we learned about this war up to now, at least the same is true for Russian troops that desert their units or leave their equipment out in the open. The fall of Mariupol is not a sudden blow. Hence, it is not intuitive why Ukrainian resistance should begin to falter with its loss.

-Russian eco is getting better and better, and Putin is planning to hold the war for years, destroying western economy permanently.

"Russian eco" is a joke to begin with. The country's economy is the size of a mid-sized European country. Even if it could hold the war for years (which is questionable), the Russian economy is in no position to deeply hurt the western economy. And, at least as important, important other countries like China don't have any incentive to weaken western economies, because their own ones are likely to go down the drain with it.[/quote]

-The western is grabbing grains from Ukraine, to put millions of Ukraine people in starve, just as what Stalin did.

That's exactly what Russia does. So.... just no. A plain lie.

-Poland is about to invade Ukraine for territory.

The Polish president was in Kyiv just yesterday and held a speech in the Ukrainian parliament (the first head of state of another country to do so!). He confirmed the friendship of the two nations, state that Poland will do its best to help Ukraine to become a part of the European Union and declared that all hostilities that the two countries had in the past are history now and will for no longer burden the relation between them. So... again the opposite of what is happening.

-Even if Russian lost soldiers and weapons, the war is on Ukraine land. Millions are escaping, the richest lands are lost, and Ukraine has no future: so Putin still wins.

Sure, the war is on Ukrainian land and millions are escaping. However, the land is neither lost nor did Ukraine lose its future. Putin winning is not a reality up to now.

-Merkel is right, but the brain-washed Germans don't deserve a wise political like her.

Don't know what's meant with this. But, obviously, the "brain-washed" accusation tells more about China than about Germany.

[Dolan]

It means the Chinese establishment is nostalgic after the times when everything was stable and comfy under Mutti Merkel's pacifist blanket.
Business was good, China could sell a lot in Europe, it wasn't forced to take an openly hostile side against the West in a conflict, and Russia kept getting funded by Europe.
What a wonderful world that was, from China's perspective.
It's best for China when Europe has leaders that make their economies as dependent on China as possible. That's the sign of a 'wise European leader', according to them.

[fei123456]

Rumor that Russia is complaining that China keeps blaming USA every day, pretending to be a firm ally, but doesn't give them any useless help at all.

[duckzilla]

Depends on how you see it. China currently imports some of the oil that Russia usually sells to Europe. Of course at a heavy discount.

[Dolan]

Rumor that Russia is complaining that China keeps blaming USA every day, pretending to be a firm ally, but doesn't give them any useless help at all.

It makes sense because China is aware that if they provided direct help to Russia's military campaign, they would fall under the economic sanctions imposed by the West. And that's just not worth it. No point in making the matters even worse just for the sake of showing Russia that you're doing something to support them. After all, I believe China's leadership secretely thinks this war was a mistake and they shouldn't involve China in a big mistake and create even worse problems for the country.
So better just publicly say you support Russia, but not really do much to support those words.

[duckzilla]

Also China is not in a good condition itself currently. Covid-19 is still a strain on on its economy and society. If trade with the West would not begin to collapse, Xi might need to actually shoot his people in the streets to enforce his one-man rule.

[harcha]

This means we're important

Is this why BC has been so slow recently

So far the attacks have targeted draugiem.lv which is our version of myspace. It hasn't been relevant in a decade... This post is meaningless, as various attacks on infrastructure and hacks of websites/banking/etcetera have been ongoing for nearly a decade at this point.

turns out they attacked 70 government websites. as I said - good thing this was nothing new

[Dolan]

NATO/EU countries need to build this canal that would link up the Aegean sea with the Danube



Another route I was thinking about would go through Bulgaria, which would be shorter, but it wouldn't take advantage of using waterways that already exist.
There are some potential complications with this Morava-Vardar route, as they pass through Macedonia and Serbia (and partially through Kosovo).
The benefits from building this canal would be big.

[Dolan]

[RefluxSemantic]

@Dolan We don't care about this danube river of yours

[Dolan]

@Dolan We don't care about this danube river of yours

It's about making Turkey's Bosphorus strait less important and making sure NATO won't be stuck with a member that blackmails the alliance because it knows it has a strategic position that controls access to the Black Sea

[RefluxSemantic]

@Dolan We don't care about this danube river of yours

It's about making Turkey's Bosphorus strait less important and making sure NATO won't be stuck with a member that blackmails the alliance because it knows it has a strategic position that controls access to the Black Sea

I'd argue their position is mostly strategic because they can block Russian ships. From a western pov, access to the black sea isn't too relevant.

[harcha]

@Dolan We don't care about this danube river of yours

Yes, eastern europe sees that western europe doesn't care.

[princeofcarthage]

@Dolan We don't care about this danube river of yours

Yes, eastern europe sees that western europe doesn't care.

And yet you are pro-west, oh the capitulation by west continues.

[harcha]

@Dolan We don't care about this danube river of yours

Yes, eastern europe sees that western europe doesn't care.

And yet you are pro-west, oh the capitulation by west continues.

the alternative you have proposed is joining russia. what's your point here?