TRG Winter 2020 Betting Predictions and Analysis

[princeofcarthage]

The analysis and predictions were coming of course. I announced it days ago. The only question was of when. Seeing yesterday's poor betting decisions by many of my brothers and sisters I couldn't keep myself away. While I was going to reserve this for only the later stages of the tournament but now I am forced to jump in.

Predictions: How are they done?
Predictions are mostly done on detailed analysis of following things :
1) Past tournament results.
2) Player improvment rate - proprietary rating which shows how much players have improved over the years.
3) Current form which includes recent win rate among other things.
4) Outside factors such as player's determination, tilt level, drunkenness among others.
5) Community's experience of the players involved.

At the end of the day it is important to note that who wins and loses is ultimately dependant on that specific day. The analysis, past results can only help in predicting the most likely result and in no ways guarantee the result. Bet at your own risk. I am in no way responsible how you use the content of this thread.

Coin - Dice Prediction
Last tournament, which I agree wasn't the best for me, @Horsemen competed me against coin toss which matched my results and predictions.

This time I am taking it a bit further and including our dear friend Dice[/ib]in it.

So how will this be calculated?
- One rupee coin toss will decide player A and player B, Dice will decide most likely results from each players perspective. Second coin toss will decide the most likely winner. Most likely winner + most likely result will be considered as the prediction.

Let the gambling begin! My first prediction will be soon below. I ask everyone interested to comment on my analysis and write their own thoughts as well. Lets make it fun!

Note: This is in light fun, request all haters to just ignore. Thank you.

[princeofcarthage]

Reserved.

[Mr_Bramboy]

Turning a meme into a real thing. Classic ESOC.

[Challenger_Marco]

Wiwowowoowowowow waiting for this for a long time!

[Kaiserklein]

Shit thread

[Challenger_Marco]

4)how will you know outside factors of every player?

[japanesegeneral]

I am a little curious why you don't use elo as an indicator.

[Challenger_Marco]

I am a little curious why you don't use elo as an indicator.

This is a big debate actually ,you can farm elo & pr not a big deal.I like what he's doing.

[japanesegeneral]

I am a little curious why you don't use elo as an indicator.

This is a big debate actually ,you can farm elo & pr not a big deal.I like what he's doing.

I also like what he is doing. But I think leaving both of these indicators out could be worse than not including them at all. But the results shall speak for themselves.

[Challenger_Marco]

I really appreciate @princeofcarthage doing this work , spending some time n doing it and being serious.

[Riotcoke]

How do I dislike a thread?

[princeofcarthage]

How I dislike a thread?

Wrong thread, please ask in tech support, viewforum.php?f=65

[princeofcarthage]

I am a little curious why you don't use elo as an indicator.

This is a big debate actually ,you can farm elo & pr not a big deal.I like what he's doing.

I also like what he is doing. But I think leaving both of these indicators out could be worse than not including them at all. But the results shall speak for themselves.

ELO will be a factor but not the sole indicator. As pointed out ELO is not definitive. There are people worse than MS who have reached 5k ELO

[Riotcoke]

How I dislike a thread?

Wrong thread, please ask in tech support, viewforum.php?f=65

Thanks never got linked tech support from a man from asia before.

[princeofcarthage]

How I dislike a thread?

Wrong thread, please ask in tech support, viewforum.php?f=65

Thanks never got linked tech support from a man from asia before.

Glad to be your first.

[aligator92]

There are people worse than MS who have reached 5k ELO

[princeofcarthage]

There are people worse than MS who have reached 5k ELO

http://aoe3.jpcommunity.com/rating2/pla ... 3DMOverall

[deleted_user]

Good thread. Fuck the haters and losers.

[aligator92]

There are people worse than MS who have reached 5k ELO

http://aoe3.jpcommunity.com/rating2/pla ... 3DMOverall

Lol Deathmatch

[samwise12]

I for one am very intrigued to hear your predictions, always a good read.

[edeholland]

How I dislike a thread?

Wrong thread, please ask in tech support, viewforum.php?f=65

Thanks never got linked tech support from a man from asia before.

How do I dislike your post?

[Challenger_Marco]

Show hidden quotes

How I dislike a thread?

Wrong thread, please ask in tech support, viewforum.php?f=65

Thanks never got linked tech support from a man from asia before.

How do I dislike your post?

Time to create dislike button its very useful i would love it!

[harcha]

Show hidden quotes

How I dislike a thread?

Wrong thread, please ask in tech support, viewforum.php?f=65

Thanks never got linked tech support from a man from asia before.

How do I dislike your post?

This is usually done by quote posting someone and saying something like "use my post for disliking"

[princeofcarthage]

Prediction 1
Optimus__prime vs Ezad
Most likely result : A winning, 3-1

Coin - Dice prediction
3-0 in optimus favour

[Challenger_Marco]

@princeofcarthage ezad won 3-0 u bad at predictions!