Housing Crisis

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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Goodspeed »

Horsemen wrote:
Goodspeed wrote:
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That's actually a fair point if you can't get a 100% LTV in the UK. That is possible here. If 80% was the max, we wouldn't (and couldn't) have bought a house. And yeah, obviously the numbers change if you can't get 100% LTV.
How does any young person buy a house in the UK unless they're rich? Wtf
TBF you could get a 95% LTV mortgage and access some government housing support schemes but these only apply to properties below a certain value so it's pretty much irrelevant for London
Is there a huge problem then, in the UK, of young people not being able to buy homes? Because it's a problem here, even with 100% LTV being perfectly possible and even standard at the time of buying.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by SoldieR »

Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable? I guess that depends more on the location. You guys may be talking about just the bare minimum to live, yes everyone should be able to afford that. If you're talking nicer areas where you pay for that location, why shouldn't that be profitable?
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Great Britain Horsemen
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Horsemen »

Goodspeed wrote:
Horsemen wrote:
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TBF you could get a 95% LTV mortgage and access some government housing support schemes but these only apply to properties below a certain value so it's pretty much irrelevant for London
Is there a huge problem then, in the UK, of young people not being able to buy homes? Because it's a problem here, even with 100% LTV being perfectly possible and even standard.
It's a 'problem' if you think young people are entitled to own homes.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Riotcoke »

Horsemen wrote:
Riotcoke wrote:
RefluxSemantic wrote:It actually seems like houses are even a good investment if you just rent them, the difference between mortgage and rent is so large that its profitable to do so.
You can't really buy a house to rent if it's your only property, at least in the UK. Banks just won't give you a buy-to-let mortgage if you don't have a house already.
Yeah also BTL properties in the UK are subject to higher dividends tax, higher capital gains tax and higher stamp duty compared to stocks and shares. You can't count on your property being occupied 100% of the time and as the landlord you are required to oversee and pay for all of the maintenance. Then there's talk of jacking up taxes on BTLs even further. It's pretty miserable and not worth the capital risk.
Yea I just stick £12k a year in my ISAs on some index instead of any of the government isas too.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Goodspeed »

SoldieR wrote:Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable?
The problem is that housing is necessary for everyone and with speculators buying up properties, prices increase for non-speculators as well.

Just buy mortgage bonds :biggrin:
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by SoldieR »

Also the interest on long term loans is criminal (or should be)
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by SoldieR »

Goodspeed wrote:
SoldieR wrote:Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable?
The problem is that housing is necessary for everyone and with speculators buying up properties, prices increase for non-speculators as well.

Just buy mortgage bonds :biggrin:
Ah so then you act as the bank and earn the interest on the mortgage? Is that how that works? Can anyone do that?
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by RefluxSemantic »

Horsemen wrote:
RefluxSemantic wrote:@Horsemen going over the numbers you posted, doesnt that end up being a 100k investment with 10% ROI? That seems pretty decent, no?
No because I borrowed 400k on a 125k initial cash payment to make 10%.

I could invest 100k in QYLD and borrow 0 and still make 10%.

If the housing market fell 20% I would be fked, if QYLD fell 20% I would be fine.
If the housing market falls you'll lose more. But we're now completely ignoring the fact that you're also paying off that loan (that's a conservative 10k per year) and that historically the housing prices have increased continuously over longer periods of time.

Let's say you're taking 40 years to pay off that mortgage (that's pretty reasonable right?), and the housing market falls 20% after 10 years. You'll already have paid off 1/4th of your original loan, so a 20% drop in housing prices would be completely fine. We'd have a house worth 400k and a loan worth 300k, so we'd still have 100k cash. If after 10 years QYLD fell 20% you'd have 100k left.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by RefluxSemantic »

SoldieR wrote:Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable? I guess that depends more on the location. You guys may be talking about just the bare minimum to live, yes everyone should be able to afford that. If you're talking nicer areas where you pay for that location, why shouldn't that be profitable?
What does it add to society? Profit at the expense of poor people, with no other tangible benefit, why is that acceptable in your eyes?

It's not very different from theft really. You take money out of the pockets of poor people and that's all you do. Why should theft not be profitable?
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by SoldieR »

What poor people? I paid rent for 8 years, I was not poor, it was by choice. Why should anyone pay cheap rent to live near others that had to spend a lot to purchase in the same neighborhood?
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by harcha »

RefluxSemantic wrote:
SoldieR wrote:Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable? I guess that depends more on the location. You guys may be talking about just the bare minimum to live, yes everyone should be able to afford that. If you're talking nicer areas where you pay for that location, why shouldn't that be profitable?
What does it add to society? Profit at the expense of poor people, with no other tangible benefit, why is that acceptable in your eyes?

It's not very different from theft really. You take money out of the pockets of poor people and that's all you do. Why should theft not be profitable?
housing for everyone should not mean equality above all, that's a weird take you have
POC wrote:Also I most likely know a whole lot more than you.
POC wrote:Also as an objective third party, and near 100% accuracy of giving correct information, I would say my opinions are more reliable than yours.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Dolan »

SoldieR wrote:Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable? I guess that depends more on the location. You guys may be talking about just the bare minimum to live, yes everyone should be able to afford that. If you're talking nicer areas where you pay for that location, why shouldn't that be profitable?
Because "investing" is not real economy, it's capital economics.
It doesn't really create any real economic value, it tries to gain a financial advantage from price arbitrage or from leveraging economic scarcity of goods. It's speculation, it doesn't create economic value, it just inflates it.
The only capital investment that creates real economic value is greenfield investment. Or loans that are taken to actually create a business or to improve how a business operates to create more real economic value.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Horsemen »

RefluxSemantic wrote:
Horsemen wrote:
RefluxSemantic wrote:@Horsemen going over the numbers you posted, doesnt that end up being a 100k investment with 10% ROI? That seems pretty decent, no?
No because I borrowed 400k on a 125k initial cash payment to make 10%.

I could invest 100k in QYLD and borrow 0 and still make 10%.

If the housing market fell 20% I would be fked, if QYLD fell 20% I would be fine.
If the housing market falls you'll lose more. But we're now completely ignoring the fact that you're also paying off that loan (that's a conservative 10k per year) and that historically the housing prices have increased continuously over longer periods of time.

Let's say you're taking 40 years to pay off that mortgage (that's pretty reasonable right?), and the housing market falls 20% after 10 years. You'll already have paid off 1/4th of your original loan, so a 20% drop in housing prices would be completely fine. We'd have a house worth 400k and a loan worth 300k, so we'd still have 100k cash. If after 10 years QYLD fell 20% you'd have 100k left.
You are investing incremental capital every time you make principal payments on your mortgage. If I have paid off my mortgage then the actual investment in my home is 520k, not 120k. I paid 520k to save 2k per month on rent.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by RefluxSemantic »

Horsemen wrote:
RefluxSemantic wrote:
Show hidden quotes
If the housing market falls you'll lose more. But we're now completely ignoring the fact that you're also paying off that loan (that's a conservative 10k per year) and that historically the housing prices have increased continuously over longer periods of time.

Let's say you're taking 40 years to pay off that mortgage (that's pretty reasonable right?), and the housing market falls 20% after 10 years. You'll already have paid off 1/4th of your original loan, so a 20% drop in housing prices would be completely fine. We'd have a house worth 400k and a loan worth 300k, so we'd still have 100k cash. If after 10 years QYLD fell 20% you'd have 100k left.
You are investing incremental capital every time you make principal payments on your mortgage. If I have paid off my mortgage then the actual investment in my home is 520k, not 120k. I paid 520k to save 2k per month on rent.
This is wrong. You paid 125k to end up with a home of 520k + saving 1k per month.
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Great Britain Horsemen
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Horsemen »

Dolan wrote:
SoldieR wrote:Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable? I guess that depends more on the location. You guys may be talking about just the bare minimum to live, yes everyone should be able to afford that. If you're talking nicer areas where you pay for that location, why shouldn't that be profitable?
Because "investing" is not real economy, it's capital economics.
It doesn't really create any real economic value, it tries to gain a financial advantage from price arbitrage or from leveraging economic scarcity of goods. It's speculation, it doesn't create economic value, it just inflates it.
The only capital investment that creates real economic value is greenfield investment. Or loans that are taken to actually create a business or to improve how a business operates to create more real economic value.
Wealth extraction through secondary investment is necessary to incentivise wealth creation from primary investment.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Horsemen »

RefluxSemantic wrote:
Horsemen wrote:
Show hidden quotes
You are investing incremental capital every time you make principal payments on your mortgage. If I have paid off my mortgage then the actual investment in my home is 520k, not 120k. I paid 520k to save 2k per month on rent.
This is wrong. You paid 125k to end up with a home of 520k + saving 1k per month.
So the 400k mortgage loan that I paid down didn’t come out of my pocket?
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by RefluxSemantic »

harcha wrote:
RefluxSemantic wrote:
SoldieR wrote:Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable? I guess that depends more on the location. You guys may be talking about just the bare minimum to live, yes everyone should be able to afford that. If you're talking nicer areas where you pay for that location, why shouldn't that be profitable?
What does it add to society? Profit at the expense of poor people, with no other tangible benefit, why is that acceptable in your eyes?

It's not very different from theft really. You take money out of the pockets of poor people and that's all you do. Why should theft not be profitable?
housing for everyone should not mean equality above all, that's a weird take you have
that's not my take though. Why is it okay for people to earn money at other people's expenses? Because that's all it is. It's someone earning money by making another person pay more. It's essentially equivalent to this person not doing so, letting the person that'd otherwise be renting be able to pay normal prices and then stealing a few hundreds from that person every month. It ends up being the exact same situation.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by SoldieR »

Dolan wrote:
SoldieR wrote:Why shouldn't investing in property be profitable? I guess that depends more on the location. You guys may be talking about just the bare minimum to live, yes everyone should be able to afford that. If you're talking nicer areas where you pay for that location, why shouldn't that be profitable?
Because "investing" is not real economy, it's capital economics.
It doesn't really create any real economic value, it tries to gain a financial advantage from price arbitrage or from leveraging economic scarcity of goods. It's speculation, it doesn't create economic value, it just inflates it.
The only capital investment that creates real economic value is greenfield investment. Or loans that are taken to actually create a business or to improve how a business operates to create more real economic value.
Isn't everything priced on scarcity? Supply and demand. Now whether it is good for the world or whatever, I'm not arguing that, I don't study that type of stuff.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Dolan »

SoldieR wrote:What poor people? I paid rent for 8 years, I was not poor, it was by choice. Why should anyone pay cheap rent to live near others that had to spend a lot to purchase in the same neighborhood?
Because people who own multiple houses are hoarders of economic goods. They create real estate scarcity, which distorts the market. When you have multiple houses to rent, there's not much pressure on you to lower prices, unless there's a major financial crash and there are almost zero incentives to move in the area and work/live there. So you are basically part of a cartel which controls rent prices and can afford to sit on your real estate bank and wait for some desperate enough person who needs to move there so that you can ask a rent that increases their living costs by a lot.

This artificially increased living cost is then passed on to an employer, another business which needs to pay wages that are high enough for someone to be willing to work for them and afford rent too. Even that's an idealistic way of looking at it, because often employers don't really care and it's workers who have to bear higher rent costs.

So what real estate hoarding does here is increases the profit of some speculators to the detriment of workers and businesses that are actually producing real economic goods and services. Whereas landlords don't produce anything of economic value, they just sit on their property bank and speculate.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Dolan »

SoldieR wrote:Isn't everything priced on scarcity? Supply and demand. Now whether it is good for the world or whatever, I'm not arguing that, I don't study that type of stuff.
Sure, but when someone is artificially creating scarcity in order to speculate it and make money off of it, then it's basically like gaining from someone else's misfortune, profiting from it. And actively working to create that situation in which you profit from their lack of capital to get their own place.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by SoldieR »

RefluxSemantic wrote:
harcha wrote:
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housing for everyone should not mean equality above all, that's a weird take you have
that's not my take though. Why is it okay for people to earn money at other people's expenses? Because that's all it is. It's someone earning money by making another person pay more. It's essentially equivalent to this person not doing so, letting the person that'd otherwise be renting be able to pay normal prices and then stealing a few hundreds from that person every month. It ends up being the exact same situation.
In that sense mortgage is no different. I pay mortgage plus interest every month, they are stealing, right? If I take 30 years to pay off my mortgage then I end up paying nearly double what I borrowed. Not everything can be not for profit. People need to make money
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by SoldieR »

Dolan wrote:
SoldieR wrote:Isn't everything priced on scarcity? Supply and demand. Now whether it is good for the world or whatever, I'm not arguing that, I don't study that type of stuff.
Sure, but when someone is artificially creating scarcity in order to speculate it and make money off of it, then it's basically like gaining from someone else's misfortune, profiting from it. And actively working to create that situation in which you profit from their lack of capital to get their own place.
So what do you want tho? Everyone to be given a home to start off with? People work hard to earn money and if they can buy land that others value but don't yet have a lump sum to buy, then I believe they have all the right to offer that land for whatever price others are WILLING to pay.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by RefluxSemantic »

Horsemen wrote:
RefluxSemantic wrote:
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This is wrong. You paid 125k to end up with a home of 520k + saving 1k per month.
So the 400k mortgage loan that I paid down didn’t come out of my pocket?
It did come out of your pocket, but if you were renting the same amount of money would've been spend on rent. You're ignoring the fact that the 'investment' also covers your living expenses.
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Horsemen »

RefluxSemantic wrote:
Horsemen wrote:
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So the 400k mortgage loan that I paid down didn’t come out of my pocket?
It did come out of your pocket, but if you were renting the same amount of money would've been spend on rent. You're ignoring the fact that the 'investment' also covers your living expenses.
The 1k saving is assuming the mortgage is interest only. If I also repay principal then on a 25 year mortgage I don’t make any savings.
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Nauru Dolan
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Re: Housing Crisis

Post by Dolan »

SoldieR wrote:
Dolan wrote:
SoldieR wrote:Isn't everything priced on scarcity? Supply and demand. Now whether it is good for the world or whatever, I'm not arguing that, I don't study that type of stuff.
Sure, but when someone is artificially creating scarcity in order to speculate it and make money off of it, then it's basically like gaining from someone else's misfortune, profiting from it. And actively working to create that situation in which you profit from their lack of capital to get their own place.
So what do you want tho? Everyone to be given a home to start off with? People work hard to earn money and if they can buy land that others value but don't yet have a lump sum to buy, then I believe they have all the right to offer that land for whatever price others are WILLING to pay.
I wasn't talking about selling and buying, but I get how this point is connected, in the sense that it's part of how the free market works that prices get set by supply and demand dynamics.
The problem is when someone with a lot of capital buys up big chunks of land or multiple houses and just sits on them, asking for high renting or selling prices. If he can afford to do that, there's nothing you can do, and others will follow suit, because if they undercut other sellers/landlords, then they lose money themselves. Because it's more profitable to wait and squeeze the renters or buyers, make them bear the higher asking prices. It's a seller's market, basically. There's no real pressure on these owners to adjust their prices anywhere lower, as long as they can afford waiting until someone takes on all the financial risks of either buying or all the high costs of renting. And what economic value did these owners create? None. And instead they have made things worse for those employees and businesses that actually create real economic value and need to pay these property owners and landlords huge amounts of money just because they're hoarding those properties.

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