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United States of America _H2O
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04 Dec 2017, 01:52

WickedCossack wrote:Sure, so like I said in twitch chat I think you've completely ignored critical points in your calculations:

Your build doesn't re-invest the VS gained from 5 vil
Taking the numbers from your logs we can see there is a 40 second window before all your manors complete from the 700w. Let's take a look at the VS difference in this 40 second window.

- VS loss from crates = 84 (being super charitable here in reality this will be at least 100 due to overgather and walking time inbetween the 3 crates)
- VS loss from earlier 5 vils 30x2 + 40x3 (using your manor build times) = 180

This gives us a total of 264 VS which is not re-invested. Your build logs just pool this extra VS but let's assume we re-invest it in wood and we find 264 VS is equivalent to a 145 wood difference. Now technically the 84 VS isn't a gain for the 5 vil player but assuming both builds are playing each other in a 1v1 the total 264VS/145w difference still exists (assuming a few vils gather wood for each player) but I'll again be charitable to you and give a 10s leeway to reinvest the 145w to compensate the 84 VS.

So for the 5 vil player a Manor starts building at 5:36 and finishes at 5:56 generating 27xp.

So taking 6:27 as a reference we can add 31 VS and a whole villager.

Now let's add in the xp bonus from the extra manor and we find that your 700w shipment should arrive about ~ 10 seconds earlier (no xp from the 5:46 vil, I don't know the exact timing on this, maybe test it in your program) so 6:17 would be a better reference point.

Furthermore your logs take place in a vacuum but since XP costs increase exponentially ANY action in the game (treasures, any combat) would reduce the time difference between 5:57 (5 vil shipment for the 700w player) and 6:17 which is always in favour of the 5 vil first player.

So my main point rests on the re-investment but a couple of other minor points:

i) Looking at your build logs it suggests you gathered 400w (of 700w) within 10 seconds as 3 manors finish completing 30 seconds after your shipment arrives. That requires a minimum of 5 villagers on crates which is rarely practical due to walking VS lost (and potential overgather VS lost) and I'd suggest that the most common number of villagers to pick up crates is lower (3 perhaps seems common? I rarely ever see 5 if ever.)

Either way you're looking once again at moderate VS deductions for 700w either in the logistics of the action of using 5 vils to pick up your crates or the manors being built later due to less vils picking up crates.

ii) To look at your first consideration This is again disregarding that there are better things to do with 700w. Ofc you are using this in favour of 700w but interestingly this works both ways.

You already conclude that 5 vil wins out in VS even despite ignoring re-investment assuming the 700w player spent it all on manors (which is not actually that uncommon, infact in some MU's id go as far to suggest its pretty common.)

5v first: 2357 VS
700w first: 2236 VS


Now at this point your argument rests on the idea that the 5 vil player now has to spend his 700w on all manors but they can use the VS lead to create a new timing by investing it into production and military that is mathematically unachievable for the 700w player.

Anyway in conclusion to counter your original claim "therefore it is strictly better in all scenarios" is absolutely not the case in terms of heavy economic play and even with respect to some military timings.


This is why you can’t win an argument with the tool but you can convince yourself enough to test it and see in game.
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Canada Mitoe
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04 Dec 2017, 02:38

Right. But that play style isn't playing to Brit's strengths.

This is debatable. One of Brit's strengths is their versatility; the number of playstyles that they can employ. To focus only on the manor boom because it is mathematically the best style of play is not always best, and will allow a smart opponent capable of recognizing this to get away with cutting corners as well.

I see your point about early map presence and aggressive play. That gives you initiative and more opportunities to outplay. It also gives your opponent more opportunities to make mistakes. While I respect that as a play style, I always like to assume perfect play from both sides and find what the best build is in that situation. On the highest levels of play, people are going to adapt to your cav start perfectly and inefficiencies in your build ARE going to get punished. And the data shows that Brit's manor boom is simply too strong to pass up.

Kind of like people are going to adapt if the only you do is manor boom? It really is not always the best option for every single matchup, map, or situation. Especially when a lot of the time those last few manors you build aren't even going to have time to pay off before you need to push for map control or to punish an age up or something similar.

Numbers are not the only things that win games.
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Sweden Gendarme
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04 Dec 2017, 07:07

Quite fascinating to see AoE3 theory-crafting controversy in 2017, to be honest.
duck wrote:man it really sucks when you have to agree with gendarme on things
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China fei123456
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04 Dec 2017, 07:27

the H2O(brit) vs Lordraphael(russia) game on indonesia just shows why 5v start lacks versatility.
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Germany aligator92
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04 Dec 2017, 12:17

Can't we just agree that both 700w and 5vill as first colonial shipment are inferior to eco theory?
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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04 Dec 2017, 12:58

_H2O wrote:This is why you can’t win an argument with the tool but you can convince yourself enough to test it and see in game.
The initial discussion was actually purely mathematical. No amount of in game testing would've helped.

Mitoe wrote:One of Brit's strengths is their versatility; the number of playstyles that they can employ. To focus only on the manor boom because it is mathematically the best style of play is not always best, and will allow a smart opponent capable of recognizing this to get away with cutting corners as well.
Similarly if you cav start, a smart opponent will know you are sacking eco and adapt to that. When you're making them aggressively it gives them chances because your huss batch(es) is/are never going to do enough damage to make up for your 12+ vill deficit at 6 minutes, and if you're making them defensively walls + infantry are much cheaper and more cost effective defense; it will still allow you to boom a little.

The point is that assuming perfect adaptation by your opponent, you will always end up in a worse position off of a cav start. You may argue that it's unfair to assume perfect adaptation in both cases because it's harder to adapt perfectly to an aggressive play style than a defensive one and you'd have a point, which is why I don't completely dismiss the play style in real games and especially on lower levels of play, but for the sake of argument we should assume (near) perfect play from both sides. And important to note is that if you do the right build order, you'll end up ahead even if your opponent adapts perfectly.

Kind of like people are going to adapt if the only you do is manor boom? It really is not always the best option for every single matchup, map, or situation. Especially when a lot of the time those last few manors you build aren't even going to have time to pay off before you need to push for map control or to punish an age up or something similar.
Well define manor boom. The way to play Brit is you want to boom as hard as you can get away with in the early game, and then focus on military. That is how the civ works. Sometimes that means building 5 manors for an early colonial timing, sometimes it means building 10 manors, sometimes 15, and actually pretty often it means maxing them at 6 min. The thing with a cav start is that it's expensive, so you are definitely not booming as hard as you can get away with. You'll still be building manors at 7 minutes, which is always a great sign of a suboptimal Brit build.
The only argument for a cav start that you're left with is that it has raiding potential, but no amount of early game raids will make up for a 12+ vill deficit.

Numbers are not the only things that win games.
I agree with that, like I said, but numbers are certainly meaningful and if you are choosing to do a build order where you are sacrificing your own economy, logically you want to be doing the same amount of damage to your opponent. I just don't see that ever happening if they adapt correctly to a Brit cav start.
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Italy Garja
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04 Dec 2017, 13:13

In the end 5v and 700w are similar in terms of efficiency for practical purposes. The real difference is that 700w gives more flexibility in terms of: 1) possibiity to drop a rax, 2) manors for pop space and xp for next shipment 3) possibility to use the wood for units with a rax, 4) anything else that can be built wit wood (walls, outpost, dock, TP, etc.).
Honestly just the fact that brits don't have 400w is enough of a reason to always send 700w. Even at 40 pop you need more manors after the first batch of huss.
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04 Dec 2017, 13:31

The problem in this thread is that people fail to appreciate that there are theoretically scenarios where 5 vills first is vastly superior. Whether those scenarios exist in practise or are frequent enough to have this discussion is another point, but denying their existance is bullshit.

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04 Dec 2017, 13:44

Even in cav start 700w is sort of superior for the afore mentioned reasons. Still have 5 huss with both builds but can't use the supposed extra VS with 5 vills because you need more manors.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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04 Dec 2017, 13:44

@Jerom I never denied their existence ITT but what are these scenarios? So far only Mitoe has answered that question, but in every case I'm pretty sure there are alternatives that are far superior. Going by the numbers the cav start itself is theoretically wrong. Ironically, as Mitoe mentioned, if we're talking about how the build would do in practice it might actually do better than the numbers suggest because the focus of the play style is taking initiative and creating opportunity to outplay.
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04 Dec 2017, 15:38

Goodspeed wrote:@Jerom I never denied their existence ITT but what are these scenarios? So far only Mitoe has answered that question, but in every case I'm pretty sure there are alternatives that are far superior. Going by the numbers the cav start itself is theoretically wrong. Ironically, as Mitoe mentioned, if we're talking about how the build would do in practice it might actually do better than the numbers suggest because the focus of the play style is taking initiative and creating opportunity to outplay.

For starters: "With all things considered I don't see a single scenario where I would cav start and send 5v first."

A good scenario example is when you know the other player is going to strelet rush you. Another good scenario is similair to what mitoe described, where you want to follow a cav start (10-15 huss) up with musk production. What is being completely ignored is the possibility that youre getting a rax from the 700w but start using it with a delayed timing (like I stated, after 10-15 huss). Doing 5 vills - 700w is going to be really efficient then, way more efficient than 700w - 5 vills. Also, notice that if youre starting hussars, the reinvestment option wicked cossack mentions actually comes in play before you get the 5 vills shipment. I think it going 5 vills first allows you to get an extra manor in transition and still get a batch of 5 musks out. Also, in this brit vs russia scenario I can see how, if you're starting huss, having a slightly more efficient start can be crucial as it might make the difference between a 3-4 hussar batch and a 5 hussar batch if harassed or allow you to pop minutemen onto the initial 5 cossack 5 musk pressure.

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Netherlands Goodspeed
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04 Dec 2017, 15:41

And you think they would still strelet rush you having scouted a stable?
What do you mean by "follow"?
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04 Dec 2017, 15:44

Goodspeed wrote:And you think they would still strelet rush you having scouted a stable?
What do you mean by "follow"?

My phone bugs while writing posts so sometimes I leave an uncompleted post. It kinda sucks, dunno why it happens.

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"but wer eyiu playig a gainst someone as magnificent as jerom? thats wha ti thogutb jerom is a beaaitful human being"- Mr_Bramboy
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Hungary Dsy
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04 Dec 2017, 16:03

Nice discussion but it doenst answer the MAIN question. Does british needs nerf? :D
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Italy Garja
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04 Dec 2017, 16:05

Dropping more manors is akward without 700w. Kinda have to chop for it or buy from gold at the market. Either way it questions the supposed more efficency of 5v. I guess that vs a rush 5v with market trade might be easier to manage.
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04 Dec 2017, 16:07

Garja wrote:Dropping more manors is akward without 700w. Kinda have to chop for it or buy from gold at the market. Either way it questions the supposed more efficency of 5v. I guess that vs a rush 5v with market trade might be easier to manage.

You drop manors in transition all the time? What are you smoking?

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"but wer eyiu playig a gainst someone as magnificent as jerom? thats wha ti thogutb jerom is a beaaitful human being"- Mr_Bramboy
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04 Dec 2017, 16:11

Ye 2 generally, which means 40 pop. I suppose with 300w start that 3rd manor could be squeezed in transition. Still quite tight without 700w first, especially with mm taking extra 6 pop.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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04 Dec 2017, 17:13

Dsy wrote:Nice discussion but it doenst answer the MAIN question. Does british needs nerf? :D
Yes. Brits have been top civ for a long time, it just hasn't been as obvious as it is now due to improving map balance and increasingly refined Brit build orders.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

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XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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04 Dec 2017, 17:17

Jerom wrote:Another good scenario is similair to what mitoe described, where you want to follow a cav start (10-15 huss) up with musk production.
When would you want this, specifically? You are sacrificing so much eco and I don't think there is a scenario where you're getting enough damage done to compensate.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

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XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point
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04 Dec 2017, 17:57

Bit of an aside but what is the outcome of a pure eco VC boom at 6 mins GS? Can you run that in your program? At what time does full manors complete, are there any market techs etc and what is your villager count at 6 minutes (or at an earlier point.)

I was just trying a build out in-game that finished booming at 6 mins and am curious to see the difference.

Oh nvm I found your stats

VC first
- Colonial age at ~4:10 with 7 manors built during transition.
- Last manor starts building at 5:00 - 5:10.
- 2 barracks are done by 5:30.
- Vill count at 6 minutes is 36.
- Longbow count at 6:00 is 8.
- Longbow count at 7:00 is 23.
- Longbow count at 8:20 is 45.
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Canada Mitoe
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04 Dec 2017, 19:40

Garja wrote:Even in cav start 700w is sort of superior for the afore mentioned reasons. Still have 5 huss with both builds but can't use the supposed extra VS with 5 vills because you need more manors.

Except—once again—the reason you send 5v is not for the first batch it's for the 2nd and sometimes 3rd. It allows you to get more consistent batches in early Colonial. If you only care about the first batch you may as well send those 5v straight to wood.

Ye 2 generally, which means 40 pop. I suppose with 300w start that 3rd manor could be squeezed in transition. Still quite tight without 700w first, especially with mm taking extra 6 pop.

I never seem to have trouble doing 3 manors in transition (I always do minimum 50 pop); are you doing market early in transition or something?
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04 Dec 2017, 20:34

VC first
- Colonial age at ~4:10 with 7 manors built during transition.
- Last manor starts building at 5:00 - 5:10.
- 2 barracks are done by 5:30.
- Vill count at 6 minutes is 36.
- Longbow count at 6:00 is 8.
- Longbow count at 7:00 is 23.
- Longbow count at 8:20 is 45.


I just tried out a couple of builds to see if I could match these stats without VC and 700w even when I lose all the extra VS due to walking time and it seems to be fairly easy to match.

Starting difference was I tested my builds on a 100c start as opposed to your 300w and I take one starting level 1 coin treasure (no xp) to trade at the market which I think is fairish since 100w is more VS than 100c.

I also tried shipping 5 vils as the first card instead of 700w since it's relevant to the topic.

With a medium eco build (37 vil at 6 mins) I can reliably beat the 7 and 8 min lb counts with more lb at earlier times though I get my first 10 lb just after 6 min.

With a high eco build (50 vil just after 6 mins) triple rax the lb count catches up somewhere between 9 and 10 mins.

Despite all the dropped VS (and I must've dropped at least 500 on the high eco game) the builds seem to compete fairly well if not better than VC/700w. :hmm:
Great Britain ListlessSalmon
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04 Dec 2017, 20:39

Just as an initial point its not clear to my why you're investing resources in gang saw for 20 seconds of chopping in that build given you're not continuing to chop wood in colonial.

In the main, its exceedingly unclear to me why this would show anything substantial. Literally just letting the period of extra vill seconds for the 5v build just sit there and stack up some extra resources is not going to be a good idea. No, the benefit of that is not just "maybe you can get great coat or MM".

This is Brits. Brits can very easily put extra villager seconds into more economy.

I think if you use the extra early resources of the 5v first build (whilst matching everything the 700w build does) and invest them into the most efficient booming available then that should be enough to stay ahead with a realistic gap between the second colonial shipments. (It's already been pointed out in this thread that the gap this simulation gives is not realistic.) It's concededly better than just saying "700>135*5 so 700w is strictly superior", but I still don't think you're considering everything properly.

Gathering the 700w crates costs 700/8=87.5 vill seconds and gains like 45 from 25 extra wood so loses ~43 vill seconds vs 5v first and then loses another 100 building 5 houses and you lose another 125 from getting the 5 vills slower. Thats 268 vill seconds you need to make up from earlier second shipment. Thats a manor plus change. (And then you need to add the extra boost from that vill from that manor which also makes the next one easier which goes on and on).

My reason for thinking 5v vs 700w was not a non-trivial choice was considering the numbers for a thing that seemed to be happening in (non-6 musk) brit mirrors a few months ago (before I forgot about this game for like half a year). That is doing 5-5-5 musk batches and constant vills whilst having all other vills gathering resources for booming as efficiently as possible (normally chopping for houses but could be market upgrades).


In that light, consider 5v vs 700w and assume that the comparative advantages at any point are invested into extra woodcutters and so extra manors:
(This is likely to be utterly incomprehensible but it started out as an argument and became me just calculating this for myself- I mean really, a table or something is an obviously vastly better way to do this).
5v vs 700w


Edit: Corrected an error and added the spoiler.
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Italy Garja
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04 Dec 2017, 22:07

Mitoe wrote:
Garja wrote:Even in cav start 700w is sort of superior for the afore mentioned reasons. Still have 5 huss with both builds but can't use the supposed extra VS with 5 vills because you need more manors.

Except—once again—the reason you send 5v is not for the first batch it's for the 2nd and sometimes 3rd. It allows you to get more consistent batches in early Colonial. If you only care about the first batch you may as well send those 5v straight to wood.

Ye 2 generally, which means 40 pop. I suppose with 300w start that 3rd manor could be squeezed in transition. Still quite tight without 700w first, especially with mm taking extra 6 pop.

I never seem to have trouble doing 3 manors in transition (I always do minimum 50 pop); are you doing market early in transition or something?

Without early market (or 2 houses) isn't that easy to get 3 houses and 5 huss out. I guess it's relatively easy with the 500f politician.
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Netherlands Goodspeed
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05 Dec 2017, 07:37

WickedCossack wrote:
VC first
- Colonial age at ~4:10 with 7 manors built during transition.
- Last manor starts building at 5:00 - 5:10.
- 2 barracks are done by 5:30.
- Vill count at 6 minutes is 36.
- Longbow count at 6:00 is 8.
- Longbow count at 7:00 is 23.
- Longbow count at 8:20 is 45.


I just tried out a couple of builds to see if I could match these stats without VC and 700w even when I lose all the extra VS due to walking time and it seems to be fairly easy to match.

Starting difference was I tested my builds on a 100c start as opposed to your 300w and I take one starting level 1 coin treasure (no xp) to trade at the market which I think is fairish since 100w is more VS than 100c.

I also tried shipping 5 vils as the first card instead of 700w since it's relevant to the topic.

With a medium eco build (37 vil at 6 mins) I can reliably beat the 7 and 8 min lb counts with more lb at earlier times though I get my first 10 lb just after 6 min.

With a high eco build (50 vil just after 6 mins) triple rax the lb count catches up somewhere between 9 and 10 mins.

Despite all the dropped VS (and I must've dropped at least 500 on the high eco game) the builds seem to compete fairly well if not better than VC/700w. :hmm:
That thread was a comparison between VC and 3v in the simplest way possible. The build:
- Send the first shipment (VC or 3 vill).
- Age to colonial with the 500f politician.
- Switch all vills to wood.
- Build manors until colonial age is reached.
- Send 700 wood.
- Build manors until they are maxed. (or until x manors have been built, this is relevant later)
- Build 2 barracks.
- Switch vills to food/wood for longbow production.
- Build longbows
As you may have noticed there is neither a market nor a second colonial shipment in that build. Steel traps and gang saw would be worth about 6 vills by 6 min, and the 5v shipment is another 5. So you're 10+ vills up. Doesn't seem fair.

You should read the rest of the thread. The result of the sim is fairly straightforward and it speaks for itself.
Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

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XeeleeFlower wrote:I don't mind open endings as long as the story continues at some point

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